Am Govt Homework One Answers - Student Seven

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List the different factors that affect the outcome of an election, such as the status of the economy (consumer confidence), the extent of media bias in favoring one side, the strength of the candidates with respect to electability, special world or national events that may sway the public more to one side than the other, and so on. Ponder how much "weight" or emphasis to give each consideration (with the totals adding up to 100%, as in 30% to the economy, 35% to media bias, etc.).

Factors that affect the outcome of an election vary from election year to election year. For example, in 2004, the top factors that decided the election were terrorism and social issues. This year, I think the economy and the government takeover of one sixth of the American economy will play a major role. As you stated on the lecture, politics is about the future, there will not be two election cycles that will be decided by the same factors.

1-List what you think are the top factors (e.g., jobs, handling of the wars, Tea Parties, media bias, government spending, education, or anything else) affecting the outcome of the election this November 2nd, and give relative "weights" to each according to your opinion.

Economy and jobs ---- 50% Government spending, fiscal policy in general ------ 20% Terrorism, handling of the wars, national security ------ 15% Tea Parties ----- 15%

Lots of priority to the "economy and jobs" -- well done. Good analysis of other factors also. Full credit.

2-Identify the total numbers by political party in the House and Senate, before the election (e.g., the House consists of __ Democrats and __ Republicans, for a total of 435). Include the Independents in the Senate in the Democratic totals because they vote for the Democratic leadership.

The House consists of 255 Democrats, 178 Democrats and two vacancies for a total of 435 members. After a little research those two vacancies are IN-3, due to the resignation of Mark Souder (R) and NY-29, due to the resignation of Eric Massa (D). 1

Superb answer, for full credit plus a bonus of 1 point for finding the vacancies. Ask yourself this: why is Eric Massa's seat still vacant? He resigned long ago! (Answer: New York Democrats are playing politics in avoiding a special election to fill his seat in a timely way.)

3-Is the President on the ballot this November? If not, then why not?

No, the President is not on the ballot this November. The President is only on the ballot when they year is divisible by four. Barack Hussein Obama will be on the ballot in 2012.


4-Using your answers questions 1 and 2 above and any other information, make a prediction of composition by political party of the House and Senate after Election Day. Explain briefly the basis of your predictions.

Due to the current state of the economy, the high unemployment rate, the failed stimulus, the government takeover of the health care industry against the will of the people, the attempt by the Democrats to create a new massive tax on energy, among many other factors; Republicans are doomed to success, as an Argentinian politician once said. (Not that I like Argentinians, his catchphrase was funny because of the context and I still remember it)

Anyway, here are my, probably inaccurate predictions: SENATE:

REPUBLICANS ----- 51 DEMOCRATS ------ 49


REPUBLICANS ----- 250 DEMOCRATS ------ 185

Good prediction. We'll soon see the real results! Thanks for the funny Argentinian expression also.

Extra credit:

What tactical change by either party between now and the election would cause you to change your prediction significantly?

I think Republicans could do even better if they compromised to govern following conservative principles. I think they should unveil the 2010 version of “Contract with America,” outlining their concrete ideas for improving the economy, health care, energy, etc. They can’t do much about national security, but they should state their support for nations that stand for democracy, and how America supports her allies. If they gain control of the Senate they can block irresponsible treaties too, and they should let the voters know that. I don’t think Democrats can do much after all the damage they’ve done to the greatest nation on Earth, but if they want to do slightly better they could leave behind the “Blame Bush Strategy™” and show the American people they can do something besides spending money that is not theirs.

Superb answer indeed! Full extra credit of 5 points.

1- Official list of members of the House of Representatives. Compiled by Lorraine C. Miller, Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

You win the contest for best homework of the week: 40/40 plus 6 extra credit points, for 46/40. Congratulations!--Andy Schlafly 22:35, 10 October 2010 (EDT)
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