Economy and the US presidential election

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Voters will typically turn out of office the incumbent party when they think the economy is bad, but will keep the incumbent party in power if the economy looks good to them.[1]


  1. Retrospective voting—the theory that voters weigh a politician’s job performance when deciding whom to elect—has been well documented in federal- and statelevel elections where voters tend to use economic conditions as a measure of an incumbent candidate’s job success (or failure). [1]