Essay:Solving The Trig Problem

This essay is an original work by CogitoErgoSum. Please comment only on the talk page.

You may have recently heard the rumor that Alaska's governor Sarah Palin and her family are vigorously guarding a secret: that the new baby, Trig Paxson van Palin, was not born to Todd and Sarah Palin, but to their 16-year-old daughter Bristol. Supposedly, the parents are lying about the baby's parentage in order to spare their daughter from embarrassment, or to keep their own good image.

Well, it's safe to say that this rumor is nothing but a tabloid crock. Trig was almost certainly born to Todd and Sarah, rather than to their daughter. There are several reasons we can say this.

1. Medical. Trig Paxson Van Palin has Down's Syndrome. Mathematically, a 43-year-old mother has a 1-in-50 chance of having a Down's Syndrome child. A 16-year-old-mother has approximately 1-in-2000 chance of having one. By this factor alone, we can state: There is a 39-out-of-40 chance that Trig is the offspring of the elder Palin. Or, it is 39 times more likely that Sarah Palin, not Bristol Palin, is Trig's mother. Or, there is a nearly 98% chance that Sarah Palin, not her daughter Bristol, is Trig's mother.

Additionally, on September 1, 2008, it was announced by the Palin family that Bristol was 5 months pregnant (i.e. somewhere between 5 and 6 months). Trig was born in April, 2008, making him 5 months old in September. This means Bristol either was pregnant with him when she got pregnant again, which is absurd, or she got pregnant again mere days after Trig was born, which is not impossible but extremely unlikely.

So that in itself should be enough evidence. But just in case it isn't, there's more.

2. Cultural. Trig Paxson Van Palin was given the middle name "Van" as a punning tribute to the Van Halen brothers of rock music fame. The Van Halens are from an older generation (they started rocking in 1972); they were in their heyday long before Bristol was born. Therefore it is much more likely that the baby was named by Todd and Sarah than by Bristol, because Bristol would probably not have thought to give him that name. Besides, how likely is it that a high school student would name her baby after trig?

3. Experiential. The third reason is that Sarah Palin told everyone about the pregnancy afterward. She told the story of how she learned of the Down's Syndrome in her unborn child, and that Todd wasn't with her at the time when she found out. She talked all about how she came home and told Todd about it. It is very unlikely that all of it was made up ad hoc.

4. Legal. It is highly doubtful that any hospital would falsify a birth record in that way, and would be very hard to get away with even if they tried.

So in short, don't listen to the gossip rumor that Trig Palin is the offspring of Gov. Palin's teenage daughter. It's just a cheap shot at this lady's reputation, made by the supporters of Barack Hussein Obama. (And it's very ignoble to "use" babies in this way, since they can't speak up and set the record straight.)

If you want to criticize Gov. Palin, you should at least do it about something true, and relevant. Like wanting to pump oil in a wildlife refuge, for instance.