Growth of global desecularization

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Eric Kaufmann, a professor at Birkbeck College, University of London, using a wealth of demographic studies, argues that there will be a significant decline of global atheism in the 21st century which will impact the Western World.[1][2]

Desecularization is the process by which religion reasserts its societal influence though religious values, institutions, sectors of society and symbols in reaction to previous and/or co-occurring secularization processes.[3]

Scholars of religious demographics frequently use the term the "global resurgence of religion" to describe the process of desecularization which began in the late portion of the 20th century.[4] See also: Global atheism statistics

According to the Encyclopædia Britannica, 2% of the world's population self-identifies as atheist and the average annual global change for atheism from 2000 to 2010 was −0.17%.[5] Presently, there are number of excellent sources indicating that the percentage of atheists in the world is declining (seee: Global atheism statistics).

On July 24, 2013, CNS News reported about global atheism:

Atheism is in decline worldwide, with the number of atheists falling from 4.5% of the world’s population in 1970 to 2.0% in 2010 and projected to drop to 1.8% by 2020, according to a new report by the Center for the Study of Global Christianity at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary in South Hamilton, Mass."[6]

On December 23, 2012, the agnostic Eric Kaufmann, a professor at Birkbeck College, University of London,Kaufmann wrote:

I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.

On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British. [7]

In 2012, Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary (GCTS) reported that every day there are 800 less atheists per day, 1,100 less non-religious (agnostic) people per day and 83,000 more people professing to be Christians per day.[8][9]

The religious scholar Corey D.B. Walker wrote:

The dawning of the 21st century has been met by religion on a global scale. Questions about the increasing secularization of modern societies and the diminished influence of religion in public life have been replaced by inquiries into the seemingly exponential growth, diffusion, and persistence of religious practices, ideas and rituals.[10]

Current trends suggests that the growth of global desecularization may accelerate sometime in the 21st century - particularly in the latter half of the 21st century (see: Acceleration of 21st century desecularization).

Contents

Decline of global atheism: A well established trend

There are a number of causes of global desecularization (see: Causes of desecularization).

A significant drop in the percentage of global atheists post 1970 was caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union (see: Collapse of atheism in the former Soviet Union).

Eric Kaufmann, using a wealth of demographic studies, argues that there will be a further significant decline of global atheism in the 21st century which will impact the Western World.[11]

In addition, Kaufmann argues that religious conservatism has a long term trend of rising and that their influence in the world will significantly increase.[12] Kaufmann is author of the book Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?.[13][14] In the Western World due to immigration and the higher birth rates of religious people, Kaufman writes: "Committed religious populations are growing in the West, and will reverse the march of secularism before 2050."[15]

Kaufmann told a secular audience in Australia: "The trends that are happening worldwide inevitably in an age of globalization are going to affect us."[16]

Furthermore, Kaufmann also argues that secularization may reverse itself significantly earlier than 2050 in the West due to religious immigration and a religious population which is increasingly resistant to secularization in Europe (See: Austria offers a window into what the future holds for Europe as far as desecularization).[17][18]

In 2010, it was reported that the rate of secularisation flattened to zero in most of Protestant Europe and France.[19] In terms of the English speaking world, Google trend data as of August 2013 indicates that the world's interest in atheism and evolutionism has declined since 2004 while interest in God has increased.[20]

Many Amish have large families and in 2012 the Amish were named the fastest growing faith group in the United States and the Amish population is projected to grow to 1 million people by 2050.[21] In the above picture, Amish residents are waving to President George W. Bush (Lancaster, Pa., August 2006)

Sub-replacements levels of fertility for secular populations

See also: Atheism and marriage and Atheism and sexuality and Atheism and romance

Michael Blume, a researcher at the University of Jena in Germany, wrote "Most societies or communities that have espoused atheistic beliefs have not survived more than a century."[22] Blume also indicated concerning concerning his research on this matter: "What I found was the complete lack of a single case of a secular population, community or movement that would just manage to retain replacement level."[23]

Global atheism and aging populations

See also: Global atheism and aging populations

Global atheism is facing significant challenges in terms of aging populations in East Asia and Europe and this will be a significant cause of desecularization in the 21st century (see: Global atheism and aging populations).

As atheist populations rise in age, the fertility rates of atheistic countries could drop further. The Rand Corporation indicates, "Nearly all European nations are experiencing long-term downtrends in fertility, and consequently, ageing of their populations. These demographic trends could have potentially damaging consequences for European economies."[24]

Aging population and religiosity

In addition, currently the Western World population is aging in terms of its demographic makeup, particularly in secular Europe, and it has been found that belief in God grows as a person's death nears.[25][26]

Economic stagnation/instability and Europe

Another factor which could increase the pace of desecularization is economic instability as there is a positive correlation between economic instability and religiosity.[27] And Europe's economic stagnation combined with its aging population points to future economic instability in Europe (see: Secular Europe's economic crisis).

For more information please see the articles:

Research on the number of atheists in the world

Data compiled by the Center for the Study of Global Christianity (CSGC) at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary (GCTS) as far as the number of atheists in the world:

Given the information in the resources directly above, the Center for the Study of Global Christianity at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary, expects the global atheist population to shrink in its total number of individuals in 2017.

If CSGC is correct, then not only is the global market share for atheism going downward, but now the actual number of atheists in the world is going down as well. Specifically, CSGC is projecting that from the mid-point of 2016 to the midpoint of 2017, the total number of atheists in the world is going to go from 138,101,000 individuals to 137,041,000 individuals. That would be a net loss of 60,000 atheists in the world during this period.[28]

Projected 21st century decline of agnosticism

See also; Global agnosticism

In 2015, Pew Research indicated in their report The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050 that agnostics and atheists “will make up a declining share of the world’s total population.”[29]

The Center for the Study of Global Christianity (CSGC) at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary estimated that agnostics made up 9.5% of the global population in 2015. CSGC projects that agnosticism will be 8.71% of the global population in 2025 and 7.19% of the global population in 2050.[30]

Decline of Asian atheism in 21st century

See also: Asian atheism and East Asia and global desecularization and Growth of evangelical Christianity in irreligious regions

According to the global news website Quartz:

Atheists]], agnostics, and other religious non-affiliates are a dying breed in Asia. According to a Pew Research Center study released last week, Asia’s shrinking pool of men and women who don’t identify with any religion are driving a drop in the proportion of “religious nones” in the world.

The percentage of the unaffiliated in Asia Pacific—home to about 76% of the world’s unaffiliated—will fall to 17% in 2050 from 21%, Pew estimates. ...this drop in Asia and the growth of religious communities elsewhere will mean the unaffiliated will make up only 13% of the world’s population in 2050, down from 16% in 2010.[31]

Austria: Leading indicator of European desecularization

See also: European desecularization in the 21st century and Secular Europe

Concerning the future of religion/secularism in Europe, Eric Kaufmann also wrote:

We have performed these unprecedented analyses on several cases. Austria offers us a window into what the future holds. Its census question on religious affiliation permits us to perform cohort component projections, which show the secular population plateauing by 2050, or as early as 2021 if secularism fails to attract lapsed Christians and new Muslim immigrants at the same rate as it has in the past. (Goujon, Skirbekk et al. 2006).

This task will arguably become far more difficult as the supply of nominal Christians dries up while more secularisation-resistant Muslims and committed rump Christians comprise an increasing share of the population.[32]

See also: Investor's Business Daily on the flood of Muslim immigrants to Europe

United States, irreligion vs. religion, demographics and desecularization

See also: United States, irreligion vs. religion and demographics

Demography is the study of human populations, and is a major specialty in the disciplines of sociology, economics, history, geography, statistics and epidemiology.

Professor Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London, specializes on how demographics affects religion/irreligion/politics.

Steve Turley wrote:

According to a recent a demographic study by University of London Professor Eric Kaufmann, there is a significant demographic deficit between secularists and conservative religionists. For example, in the U.S., while self-identified secular women averaged only 1.5 children per couple in 2002, conservative evangelical women averaged 2 to 3 children per couple, which amounts to a 28 percent fertility advantage. Now Kaufmann notices that this demographic deficit has dramatic effects over time. In a population evenly divided, these numbers indicate that conservative evangelicals would increase from 50 to 62.5 percent of the population in a single generation. In two generations, their number would increase to 73.5 percent, and over the course of 200 years, they would represent 99.4 percent.

Kaufmann noticed further that the more religiously conservative, the more children. For example, the Amish double in population every twenty years, and are projected to number over a million in the U.S. and Canada in just a few decades. We're seeing a similar trend among Mormons, who have averaged a 40 percent growth per decade, which means that by the end of the century, there will be as many as 300 million Mormons in the world, or six percent of the world's population. And note: Mormons vote overwhelmingly Republican.

Now in stark contrast to all of this, Kaufmann's data projects that secularists consistently exemplify a low fertility rate of around 1.5 percent per couple, which is significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 percent. And so he sees a steady decline of secular populations after 2030 or 2050 to potentially no more than a mere 14 to 15 percent of the American population. He notices that similar projections apply to Europe as well.[33]

In 2012, Kaufmann wrote:

In the United States, they manage 1.5, considerably lower than the national 2.1. This disadvantage is not enough to prevent religious decline in much of Europe and America today, but secularism must run to stand still. Since the history of religious decline in Europe suggests that secularization rates tend to drop over time, this portends the end of secularization. Projections I recently published with Skirbekk and Goujon in the journal Sociology of Religion show secularism losing momentum and beginning to decline in both Europe and America by 2050, largely because of low fertility and religious immigration.[34]

Low morale of atheist movement

See also: Atheists and the endurance of religion

In the late portion of the 20th century and continuing into the 21st century, the atheist movement has had lower confidence/morale (see: Atheists and the endurance of religion).

Global Christianity and its widespread distribution

See also: Global Christianity

Hong Kong Christians at Gateway Camp. In 2005, there were four times as many non-Western World Christians as there were Western World Christians.[35]

Christianity is the world's largest religion and it has seen tremendous growth over its 2000-year history.[36]

In terms of its geographic distribution, Christianity is the most globally diverse religion.[37] Christianity has recently seen explosive growth outside the Western World.[38] In 2000, there were twice as many non-Western Christians as Western Christians.[39] In 2005, there were four times as many non-Western Christians as there were Western World Christians.[40] There are now more non-Western missionaries than Western missionaries.[41]

Rapid growth of evangelical Christianity and pentecostalism

The American sociologist and author Peter L. Berger: "One can say with some confidence that modern Pentecostalism must be the fastest growing religion in human history."[42]

See also: Growth of evangelical Christianity and Global Christianity and Atheism vs. Christianity

In 2011, the American Spectator declared:

The report estimates about 80,000 new Christians every day, 79,000 new Muslims every day, and 300 fewer atheists every day. These atheists are presumably disproportionately represented in the West, while religion is thriving in the Global South, where charismatic Christianity is exploding."[43]

The World Christian Database estimates the number of Evangelicals at 300 million individuals, Pentecostals and Charismatics at 600 million individuals and "Great Commission" Christians at 700 million individuals. These Christian groups are not mutually exclusive. Operation World estimates the number of Evangelicals at 550 million individuals.

Explosive growth of pentecostalism

See also: Pentecostalism

The American sociologist and author Peter L. Berger introduced the concept of desecularization in 1999.[44][45] According to Berger, "One can say with some confidence that modern Pentecostalism must be the fastest growing religion in human history."[46]

Growth of evangelicalism in the world and in the United States

See also: Growth of evangelical Christianity and Baylor University researchers on American Christianity

A Pew Forum report showed that evangelical Protestant churches in America grew by 2 million from 2007 to 2014.[47]

Michael Brown wrote:

Several decades ago, church statistician and demographer David Barrett began to report the surprising news that around the world, the most rapidly growing faith was Spirit-empowered Christianity, marked by clear gospel preaching, belief in the literal truth of the Scriptures, and the reality of God’s presence. (The data were compiled in the prestigious “World Christian Encyclopedia,” published by Oxford University Press.)...

This is confirmed in the new Pew Forum report, which showed that evangelical Protestant churches in America grew by 2 million from 2007 to 2014 whereas the so-called mainline (liberal) Protestant churches declined by 5 million, meaning that evangelical Protestants now make up the largest religious group in the nation. (Although this is not part of the Pew Forum survey, my surmise is that the evangelical churches that are most Bible-based and make the most serious, grace-empowered demands on their congregants are, generally speaking, the ones that are growing rather than declining.[48]

In their 2010 journal article entitled, Secularism, Fundamentalism or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043 published in the Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, Vegard Skirbekk and Anne Goujon wrote that the "prevailing view ...envisions the continued growth of “strong religion” (Stark and Iannaccone 1994a)."[49] See also: Baylor University researchers on American Christianity

Eric Kaufmann wrote:

In North America, only small Anabaptist sects like the Hutterites (population 50,000), Amish and some Mennonites maintain a Haredi-like fertility premium, and will emerge as significant groups in rural areas over several generations...

Conservative Christians as a whole will have a stronger presence in the white America of 2050 than they do today, and a more powerful national voice if they can forge alliances with traditionalist Hispanic Catholics, as shown in the recent success of Proposition 8 (anti-same sex marriage) in California.[50]

Global scope of indigenous evangelical Christianity evangelism

Peter L. Berger in his book The Desecularization of the World: Resurgent Religion and World Politics wrote:

The origins of this worldwide Evangelical upsurge are in the United States from which the missionaries first went out. But it is very important to understand that, virtually everywhere and emphatically in Latin America, this new Evangelicalism is thoroughly indigenous and no longer dependent on support from U.S. fellow believers-indeed, Latin American Evangelicals have been sending missionaries to the Hispanic communiry in this country where there has been a comparable flurry of conversions.

Needless to say, the religious contents of the Islamic and Evangelical revivals are totally different. So are the social and political conscquences (of which I will say more later). But the two developments also differ in another very important respect: The Islamic movement is occurring primarily in countries that are already Muslim or among Muslim emigrants (as in Europe), while the Evangelical movement is growing dramatically throughout the world in countries where this type of religion was previously unknown or very marginal.[51]

Evangelicalism is growing in secular Europe and atheistic China

In the Europe of tomorrow, immigration and religious fertility will increase the proportion of committed Christians in Europe, many from the developing world.[52] See: Desecularization of Europe

The current atheist population mostly resides in East Asia (particularly China) and in secular Europe/Australia among whites.[53] See: Western atheism and race

Evangelical Christianity is growing in secular Europe

At the present time, evangelical Christianity is growing in secular Europe (see: Evangelical Christianity is growing in secular Europe) and Europe is expected to see desecularization in the 21st century sometime before 2050 and this trend is expected to continue.[54]

In the Europe of tomorrow, immigration and religious fertility will increase the proportion of committed Christians in Europe, many from the developing world.[55]

Projected growth of evangelical Christianity in Europe according to Operation World

See also: Growth of evangelical Christianity

Justin Long, citing statistics from Operation World states:

Europe. From 18 million today, this model projects growth to 26 million evangelicals by 2100. The annual growth rate will decline along with the falling population AGR, which is projected to hit its peak ‘low’ rate of -0.246% per annum around 2075. Since the evangelical AGR will not be as slow as the population’s, Europe will actually become more evangelical (by percentage of the population): rising from 2.5% in 2010 to 4% in 2100 in this model.[56]

Evangelical Christianity is seeing rapid growth in China

At the present time, Christianity is experiencing explosive growth in China (See: Growth of Christianity in China).

According to Slate, "Protestant Christianity has been the fastest growing religion in China."[57] Evangelical Christianity is especially growing sharply in China.[58]

On November 1, 2014, an article in The Economist entitled Cracks in the atheist edifice declared:

Officials are untroubled by the clash between the city’s famously freewheeling capitalism and the Communist Party’s ideology, yet still see religion and its symbols as affronts to the party’s atheism...

Yang Fenggang of Purdue University, in Indiana, says the Christian church in China has grown by an average of 10% a year since 1980. He reckons that on current trends there will be 250m Christians by around 2030, making China’s Christian population the largest in the world. Mr. Yang says this speed of growth is similar to that seen in fourth-century Rome just before the conversion of Constantine, which paved the way for Christianity to become the religion of his empire.[59]

Projected growth of evangelical Christianity in Asia

See also: Growth of evangelical Christianity

Justin Long, citing statistics from Operation World states:

From 146 million in 2010, evangelicals grow to 1.2 billion, or 24% of Asia’s 4.3 billion by 2100. Evangelicals are, in this model, predicted to slip from 3% per annum growth today to 1.5% per annum in 2100, due to the projected fall in population growth. This, too, seems a fairly realistic projection. While there are significant gains in the number of evangelicals in China, growth in other places in Asia is presently fairly flat.[60]

A sign of desecularization and/or the ending of secularization in Britain

See also: British atheism

The news website Premier reported in 2016:

The decline in the number of people calling themselves Christians has halted, new figures suggest.

A small increase in the percentage of Brits who classify themselves as followers of Christ has been found in the British Social Attitudes Survey.

The report, which is published every year, has not been official released but the Sunday Telegraph has reported some of its findings.

The amount of Brits who say they are Christian has increase in the past year from 42 per cent to 43 per cent, it says.

Such a small change is within the margin of error in surveys but if it is to be believed it shows a decade long decline in Christianity has levelled off.[61]

Future of Islam in Europe and the desecularization of Europe

According to Pew Forum, by 2030 Muslims are projected to make up 8% of Europe’s population.[62]

See also: Atheism vs. Islam

According to Pew Forum:

In recent decades, the Muslim share of the population throughout Europe grew about 1 percentage point a decade, from 4% in 1990 to 6% in 2010. This pattern is expected to continue through 2030, when Muslims are projected to make up 8% of Europe’s population.[63]

Professor Philip Jenkins at Penn State University projects that by 2100, Muslims will be about 25% of Europe's population. Jenkins indicates that this figure does not take account divergent birthrates amongst Europe's various immigrant Christians.[64]

In April 2010, Eric Kaufmann indicated concerning the future of Islam in Europe:

I address this in some detail in the book, as well is in a recent article in the April issue of Prospect magazine here in Britain. The short answer is that I don’t foresee a Muslim-majority Europe in this century or in the next. Why? Mainly because Muslim birthrates are plunging both in Europe and the Muslim world. Already, Iran, Tunisia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and several other Muslim countries have replacement-level fertility or below. In the UK, Bangladeshi and Pakistani fertility has halved in a generation and is now under 3 children per woman. This means their long-term growth will begin to tail off. The other part of the equation is the rise of non-Muslim immigrant groups (African and West Indian Christians, Hindus, Buddhists and other Eastern faiths) who are also increasing and therefore making Europe more plural and, in the process, rendering it harder for Muslims to increase their share of the population.

That said, Muslim membership retention and in-group marriage is exceptionally high (over 90 per cent) and they are a much younger population than the host society. So they are on course for steady growth. My colleagues and I expect their fertility to fall to host levels by 2030, but they will still make up 5-15 per cent of most West European countries by 2050 and 10-25 per cent by 2100. This is a major change from the 2-6 per cent levels of today[65]

Investor's Business Daily on the recent flood of Muslim immigrants to Europe

Investor's Business Daily wrote in 2015 concerning a flood of Muslim immigrants to the European Union:

The European Union is bracing for as many as 800,000 mostly Muslim refugees arriving from the chaos in the Middle East this year, mainly Syria, Iraq and Eritrea.

And it may be just the beginning. Can the EU withstand such a religio-demographic earthquake? Its failure to enforce any concept of borders isn't a good sign....

Assimilation offers little hope. Parts of France — especially its notorious banlieues outside major cities like Paris — are virtual no-go zones. London's are little better. Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and Scandinavia all have large, unassimilated Muslim populations.

Those populations are growing. Europe isn't. As far back as 2011, the Pew Forum noted that Europe's Muslim population was expected to almost double from 30 million in 1990 to 57 million in 2030.

That's surely now an underestimate. Add to this the inevitability of jihadists slipping across porous EU borders, and Europe is in deep trouble.

Anger is welling up, and nationalist parties are spreading across the Continent. As 20th century history showed, Europe doesn't react well to social upheaval.

Can Europe survive the coming storm? Doubtful.[66]

Multiculturism, assimilation and the desecularization of Europe

In the Europe of tomorrow, immigration and religious fertility will increase the proportion of committed Christians in Europe, many from the developing world.[67]

See also: Desecularization of Europe and Desecularization

Professor Eric Kaufmann in an academic paper entitled Shall the Righteous Inherit the Earth? Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century wrote:

Ethnicity and race may succumb to liberal modernity, but committed religious populations cannot be assimilated to liberal secularism fast enough to compensate for their demographic advantage in a world of plunging fertility and growing migration. In the end, it is a battle between religious fertility on the one hand, and, on the other, religious decline through the 'assimilation' of religious offspring into secularism. This paper argues that the weakness of secularism and a widening secular-religious fertility gap points toward a religious victory...

The principle of tolerating and 'celebrating' diversity is a corollary of postmodern relativism which opens up space for antimodern religious 'diversities' to take root. If they are demographically-powerful religious movements like Islamism or evangelical Christianity, they will exploit this weakness to progressively erode the hegemony of western secular humanism....

In the Europe of tomorrow, immigration and religious fertility will increase the proportion of committed Muslims and Christians, many from the developing world. It may seem fanciful to imagine a moral conservatism uniting white and nonwhite Christians as well as Muslims against 'secular humanists'. However, a version of this process has occurred in the United States, and it can be argued that the cocktail of cultural relativism, secular exhaustion and demographic change is even more potent in Europe than America. The division between native ethnic groups and immigrant groups is currently more important in Europe, but as the Muslim and religious Christian minorities grow, they will become as important for conservative politicians as the religious Hispanics of America whom the Republicans have so assiduously courted. At some point, it will make more electoral sense for European conservatives to appeal to a trans-ethnic coalition of moral conservatives than it will to stress anti-immigrant themes and ethno-nationalism. The liberal-left will find it extremely difficult to craft a defense of secularism given its investment in cultural relativism, the exhaustion of its secular religions, and its laissez-faire attitude to demographic change.

Standing back from the fray, we can think of demography as the achilles heel of liberalism.[68]

For more information, please see: Desecularization of Europe

Future of immigration to Europe uncertain

The future of immigration to Europe is difficult to determine. Should Europe's economic condition worsen in the future it will be less attractive to immigrants and anti-immigration politics could heighten due to increased competition for scarcer job opportunities. In addition, anti-Muslim sentiments in Europe appear to be rising so the proportion of immigration from Muslim countries could be affected due to politicians catering to anti-Muslim public sentiments.

Expected growth of Muslim population in the UK

According to Channel 4 News:

There were 1.6 million Muslims in England and Wales in 2001, or 3 per cent of the population, according to the census. By 2011 the Muslim population had grown to 2.7 million people or 4.8 per cent of the population...

Assuming patterns of net immigration do not change significantly, the Pew Forum thinks that there will be just over 5.5 million British Muslims, representing 8.2 per cent of the UK population, by 2030.

None of this is an exact science, and some demographers say total fertility rate overestimates the lifetime fertility of immigrants because it doesn’t adjust for the fact that they tend to have children soon after arriving.[69]

At the same time, over several decades/centuries, silent demographic changes due to higher fertility rates can have large scale consequences.[70]

Muslim population growth in Germany

According to the thinktank the Gatestone Institute:

Adding the 800,000 Muslim migrants who arrived in Germany in 2015, and the 240,000 who arrived in 2016, combined with the 77,000 natural increase, the Muslim population of Germany jumped by 1,117,000, to reach an estimated 6,262,000 by the end of 2016. This amounts to approximately 7.5% of Germany's overall population of 82 million.[71]

Growing anti-Muslim sentiments in Europe and its possible effects

In recent years, there is growing anti-Muslim and anti-immigration political activities in Europe and growing violence against Muslims. Muslims not assimilating into European society, Islamic terrorism in Europe and high profile incidences of Muslim migrants raping native European women is contributing to anti-Islamic sentiments and violence against Muslims.[72][73][74]

Given Europe's violence in the past and its economic problems, it is argued that anti-Muslim violence will increase and that an expulsion of Muslims from various European countries may occur.[75][76] In 2015, Spanish police were accused of breaking international law by beating African migrants who climbed border fences and deporting them on the spot without asylum procedures.[77]

Rapid growth of global creationism

See also: Global creationism and Creationism and Evolution

Johns Hopkins University Press reported in 2014: "Over the past forty years, creationism has spread swiftly among European Catholics, Protestants, Jews, Hindus, and Muslims, even as anti-creationists sought to smother its flames." Picture above was taken at Johns Hopkins University

Since World War II a majority of the most prominent and vocal defenders of the evolutionary position which employs methodological naturalism have been atheists and agnostics.[78]

Rapid growth of global creationism

On October 4, 2014, the Vancouver Sun reported that evolutionism is rejected by hundreds of millions of evangelical Christians and Muslims around the world.[79]

Specifically, the Vancouver Sun declared:

Creationism, a religious world view that adamantly rejects Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution, is on the rise among evangelical Protestants and most of the world’s Muslims.

It is not only the majority of residents in Muslim countries such as Pakistan, Indonesia and Turkey who strongly reject the teaching that humans and other species evolved over millions of years from less complex creatures. So do tens of millions of evangelical Christians in North America (as well as South America and Africa).

Overall, [Nidhal Guessoum, a Middle Eastern physics and astronomy professor] who teaches at the American University of Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates, estimates roughly 60 per cent of the world’s Muslims are creationists, including many living in the U.S. and Canada.

Even though poll results about evolution vary based on the questions asked, Salman Hameed reported in the journal Science that strong anti-evolution majorities exist in Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt and Pakistan. The latter is among Canada’s top six source countries for immigrants...

An Angus-Reid survey found 43 per cent of Americans accept the creationist teaching that the Earth is less than 10,000 years old, which means they reject the...view the universe began roughly 13 billion years ago.[80]

Rapid growth of European creationism

Johns Hopkins University Press reported in 2014: "Over the past forty years, creationism has spread swiftly among European Catholics, Protestants, Jews, Hindus, and Muslims, even as anti-creationists sought to smother its flames."[81] See also: Evolutionary indoctrination

Islamic creationism growing in Europe

See also: Atheism vs. Islam

Pages from the Koran, the holy book of Islam. Assuming patterns of net immigration do not change significantly, the Pew Forum thinks that there will be just over 5.5 million British Muslims, representing 8.2 per cent of the UK population, by 2030.[82] See: Atheism vs. Islam

According the news website The Commentator: "Belief in evolution remains a minority position in virtually all Muslim societies around the world today. According to studies, 22 percent of Turks, 16 percent of Indonesians, 14 percent of Pakistanis, 11 percent of Malaysians, and 8 percent of Egyptians believe in evolution."[83]

In recent years Britain, the birthplace of Darwinism, has seen a large influx of Muslim immigrants. In the UK, between the years 2001 and 2009 the Muslim population increased nearly 10 times faster than the non-Muslim population.[84] See also: Islam and belief in creationism

In 2010, the Islamic creationist Harun Yahya was chosen among the top 500 most influential Muslims by the Royal Islamic Strategic Studies center in Jordan.[85]

In 2009, The Guardian reported:

Mass migration has led to a rise in creationist beliefs across Europe, according to a British scientist.

Michael Reiss, who is a professor of education at the Institute of Education in London and an Anglican priest, said the evolution-creationism debate could no longer be thought of as something that happened elsewhere and that more and more people in the UK did not accept evolution.

Reiss told the Guardian that countries with a higher proportion of Muslims or fundamentalist Christians in their population were more likely to reject evolution. He added: "What the Turks believe today is what the Germans and British believe tomorrow. It is because of the mass movement of people between countries.

"These things can no longer be thought of as occurring in other countries. In London, where I work, there are increasingly quite large numbers of highly intelligent 16, 17 and 18-year-olds doing Advanced Level biology who do not accept evolution. That's either because they come from a fundamentalist Christian background or from Muslim backgrounds."[86]

New atheist Richard Dawkins on Islamic creationism and multiculturism

See also: New Atheism as a reaction to creationism

Richard Dawkins
Richard Dawkins declared "Christianity may actually be our best defence against aberrant forms of religion that threaten the world".[87] See also: Richard Dawkins and Islam

The British newspaper The Telegraph reported in an article entitled Richard Dawkins: Muslim parents 'import creationism' into schools:

Prof Dawkins, a well-known atheist, also blamed the Government for accommodating religious views and allowing creationism to be taught in schools.

"Most devout Muslims are creationists so when you go to schools, there are a large number of children of Islamic parents who trot out what they have been taught," Prof Dawkins said in a Sunday newspaper interview.

"Teachers are bending over backwards to respect home prejudices that children have been brought up with. The Government could do more, but it doesn't want to because it is fanatical about multiculturalism and the need to respect the different traditions from which these children come."[88]

China and creationism

As noted above, evangelical Christianity is flourishing in China. Generally speaking, evangelicals have been critical of evolutionism.

Jun-Yuan Chen Research Professor Nanjing Institute of Geology and Palaeontology was quoted in the Wall Street Journal as saying, "In China we can criticize Darwin but not the government. In America you can criticize the government, but not Darwin."[89] See also: Evolutionary indoctrination

American secular leftism and conservative Christian backlash

See also: Culture war and American atheism

After the prayer-in-school decision in 1962 and particularly after Rowe vs. Wade in 1973 desecularization accelerated rapidly and seriously impacted the national political arena in a divisive fashion pitting a secular-liberal humanism against a conservative moralism, pitting Darwin against “intelligent Design”.[90]

According to the 2014 General Social Survey (GSS), the number of atheists and agnostics in the United States has remained relatively stable in the past 23 years. In 1991, 2% of Americans identified as atheist, and 4% identified as agnostic. In 2014, 3% of Americans identified as atheists, and 5% identified as agnostics.[91] See also: American atheism

In the United States, in the latter part of the 20th century, political victories by the secular left/liberal Christianity/liberal theists helped cause a rise in the political influence of the religious right.[92]

Recently, the secular left has shifted many universities politically to the left and instituted practices such as political correctness and a greater degree of discrimination in the hiring of conservative professors.[93] For example, in 2013, an study found that academia was less likely to hire evangelical Christians due to discriminatory attitudes.[94] In addition, same-sex marriage was legalized in the United States in 2015 and some Christian businesses which deal with weddings such as bakers have been fined for refusing service to homosexuals who wanted their services related to weddings. Historically, biblical Christianity has often thrived during periods of increased persecution/discrimination.

The academic article The Nation with the Soul of a Church declared:

After the foundation of a secular republic a process of reactive desecularization has set in, first regionally and then, in fits and starts, also nationally. Animated by the First Amendment’s “free exercise” and protected by the “anti-establishment clause” there have been a series of popular religious reactions to the separation of church and state, commonly called awakenings. From the 18th to the early 20th century most of these remained politically inconsequential. However, the liberal revolution of the 1960s provoked a string of popular political responses. Since then the formerly “silent minorities” morphed into “moral majorities” and became a new political force. After the prayer-in-school decision in 1962 and particularly after Rowe vs. Wade in 1973 desecularization accelerated rapidly and seriously impacted the national political arena in a divisive fashion pitting a secular-liberal humanism against a conservative moralism, pitting Darwin against “intelligent Design”. In order to combat excessive secularization and moral relativism the crisis management of the religious right called for simple answers, for so-called fundamentals. The born again experience of the evangelicals favored private instead of state-managed solutions. The new litmus test of moral authority became “Have you chosen Jesus as your personal saviour?”[95]

Declining influence of pro-atheism mainstream media

The Media Research Center released a study reporting a pro-atheism bias by major press outlets in the United States. The study found that 80% of mainstream media coverage of atheism was positive and that 71% of Christian-themed stories had an atheist counterpoint or were written from an atheist perspective. The New Atheism movement received significant support from the mainstream media during its early years.

In recent years, the American public has been increasingly distrustful of the mainstream media and the profitability of newspapers has been declining.[96]

American culture war, demographics and expected tipping point after 2020

Eric Kaufmann wrote in his 2010 book Shall the Righteous Inherit the Earth? concerning America:

High evangelical fertility rates more than compensated for losses to liberal Protestant sects during the twentieth century. In recent decades, white secularism has surged, but Latino and Asian religious immigration has taken up the slack, keeping secularism at bay. Across denominations, the fertility advantage of religious fundamentalists of all colours is significant and growing. After 2020, their demographic weight will begin to tip the balance in the culture wars towards the conservative side, ramping up pressure on hot-button issues such as abortion. By the end of the century, three quarters of America may be pro-life. Their activism will leap over the borders of the 'Redeemer Nation' to evangelize the world. Already, the rise of the World Congress of Families has launched a global religious right, its arms stretching across the bloody lines of the War on Terror to embrace the entire Abrahamic family.[97]

If Christian political backlash does not materialize to a significant degree due to recent secular leftist political victories, American secularism is still expected to stabilize in the 21st century before 2043 due to demographic forces such as religious/irreligious fertility rates and religious immigration (see: American rate of secularization stabilization in 21st century).

Atheist anger over Christianity in America

See also: Causes of the New Atheism movement

New Atheism is form of militant atheism which began in the period between 2004-2008.

New Atheists were especially angered by the dominance of the Christian right in America (see: Causes of the New Atheism movement#New Atheism as a reaction to the religious right in the United States).

Newsbusters reported in 2009:

Newsweek tantalizingly proclaimed on its cover “The Decline and Fall of Christian America,” and Meacham's article was titled, “The End of Christian America,” (during Holy Week, no less) Meacham himself stated, “rumors of the death of Christianity are greatly exaggerated” and that “there is no doubt that the nation remains vibrantly religious – far more so, for instance than Europe."[98]

Christian revivals/awakenings and desecularization

See also: Atheism and its retention rate in individuals

Reverend Dwight Longenecker wrote: "In the late eighteenth century atheism, rationalism and Freemasonry seemed to have taken over Europe. By the mid to late nineteenth century religious revival had swept through Europe and Christianity was surging forward."[99]

In the United States, there were a series of Christian revivals/awakenings between 1730 and the 1970s (see: First Great Awakening and Second Great Awakening and Third Great Awakening and Fourth Great Awakening and Jesus Movement).

Global decline of nones in the 21st Century

See also: Nones

Nones do not subscribe to an organized religion such as Christianity or Judaism.[100]

Although some American atheists like to claim the "nones" or "no religion" on religious surveys as one of their own, fewer than 15% of the "nones" consider themselves atheists.[101]

According to the Pew Research Forum:

These projections, which take into account demographic factors such as fertility, age composition and life expectancy, forecast that people with no religion will make up about 13% of the world’s population in 2050, down from roughly 16% as of 2010.

This is largely attributable to the fact that religious “nones” are, on average, older and have fewer children than people who are affiliated with a religion...

China, with its large population and lack of reliable data on religious switching, is something of a wild card when it comes to the future of world religion. This is especially true for the religiously unaffiliated population; more than half of the world’s people who do not identify with any religion live in China (roughly 700 million).

Some experts believe the Christian population in China is rising while the religiously unaffiliated population is falling. If this is true – and the trend continues – religious “nones” could decline as a share of the world’s population even more than the Pew Research Center study projects.[102]

Eric Kaufmann told a secular audience in Australia: "The trends that are happening worldwide inevitably in an age of globalization are going to affect us."[103] Furthermore, Kaufmann also argues that secularization may reverse itself significantly earlier than 2050 in the West due to religious immigration and a religious population which is increasingly resistant to secularization in Europe.[104]

Decline of American 1990s secularism

For more information please see:

Recent setbacks to American atheist movement

See also: Atheist movement

Decline of internet atheism

The article Internet atheism: The thrill is gone! points out that internet atheism has been in a significant slump since 2008.

See also: Internet atheism

During the period of 2008 to 2012, the atheist community made a concerted effort to spread atheism through means of the internet. However, leading atheist websites have seen plunges in web traffic during this same period and during the first half of 2012.[105]

Reddit atheism, also known as r/atheism, is one of the largest internet groups of atheists. Mashable reported that Reddit atheism recently grew to 2 million members so it may very well be the largest online community of atheists.[106]

A June 14, 2013 Mashable article declared: "In recent years, r/atheism has become known for memes, images, quote pictures and other content viewed by some as "low brow."[107] See also: Reddit atheism

In May 2012, it was pointed out by supporters of Creation Ministries International's Question evolution! campaign that from a global internet perspective the public's interest in the views of the agnostic/weak atheist Richard Dawkins and the atheist PZ Myers and in atheism are on the decline while interest in Jesus and Christianity are on the upswing.[108]

For more information please see:

Atheist infighting and factions

See also: Atheist factions

As noted above, another factor contributing to the decline of global atheism is the lack of unity and the significant amount of infighting in the atheist community. For more information please see: Atheist factions

Lack of sound leadership

See also: Atheism and leadership

The leadership status of prominent atheists/agnostics in the secular community at this present juncture is increasingly transient due to atheist infighting, the significant amount of unpleasant personalities within the atheist population, the New Atheism failing, the decline of liberal media market share, a loss of confidence within the atheist community, the decline of global atheism and the secularization rate being zero in former areas of influence such as Protestant Europe and France (see: Decline of atheism and Atheist factions).[109] A recent example of this is Richard Dawkins' loss of influence in the atheist community post subsequent to the Elevatorgate controversy (see: Richard Dawkins' loss of influence). Another example of this is Paul Kurtz, the father of secular humanism, who left no legacy.[110]

The British academic and agnostic Eric Kaufmann recently wrote, "Worldwide, the march of religion can probably only be reversed by a renewed, self-aware secularism. Today, it appears exhausted and lacking in confidence."[111]

Communist China has the world's largest atheist population and China's atheist leaders are panicking about the explosive growth of Christianity in their country.[112]

Using academic studies, survey data and other information, supporters of the Question evolution! campaign maintain that there is a lack of sound leadership within the agnostic/atheist and evolutionist communities in dealing with the global decline of atheism and agnosticism.

See:

See also

External links

Factors increasing growth of immigration into Europe:

Notes

  1. [http://kitmantv.blogspot.com/search/label/atheist%20demographics Eric Kaufmann's Atheist Demographic series
  2. Religion and the State in Russia and China: Suppression, Survival and Revival by Christopher Marsh, 2011, page 11 (Christopher Marsh cites the definitions of desecularization given by Peter L. Berger and Vyacheslav Karpov)
  3. The return of religion
  4. Religion: Year in Review 2010: Worldwide Adherents of All Religions. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Encyclopædia Britannica Inc.. Retrieved on 2013-11-21.
  5. Global Study: Atheists in Decline, Only 1.8% of World Population by 2020
  6. 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious, Tuesday, April 30, 2013
  7. Globally the worldviews of atheism and non-religious (agnostic) are declining while global Christianity is exploding in adherents
  8. Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary - Status of Global Missions
  9. Black Greek-Letter Organizations 2.0: New Directions in the Study of African American Fraternities and Sororities by Matthew W. Hughey, Gregory S. Parks, commentary by Corey D.B. Walker, Univ. Press of Mississippi, Feb 18, 2011, page 91
  10. Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann, Belfer Center, Harvard University/Birkbeck College, University of London
  11. [http://www.sneps.net/RD/uploads/1-Shall%20the%20Religious%20Inherit%20the%20Earth.pdf Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann, Belfer Center, Harvard University/Birkbeck College, University of London]
  12. Shall the religious inherit the earth by David Kaufmann
  13. [http://www.sneps.net/RD/uploads/1-Shall%20the%20Religious%20Inherit%20the%20Earth.pdf Early paper - Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann, Belfer Center, Harvard University/Birkbeck College, University of London]
  14. Early paper - Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann, Belfer Center, Harvard University/Birkbeck College, University of London
  15. Shall the religious inherit the earth
  16. European immigration will pour Christian creationists into Europe
  17. The future of European Darwinism and atheism is bleak
  18. Shall the religious inherit the earth
  19. Google trends: Interest in atheism and evolution down. Google searches for God are up. Atheism beaches will be softened up before major attacks on atheism
  20. For Amish, fastest-growing faith group in US, life is changing
  21. Atheist: A dying breed as nature favours faithful
  22. Atheist: A dying breed as nature favours faithful
  23. Low Fertility and Population Ageing, Rand Corporation
  24. Belief in God grows as mortality nears, survey says
  25. The Demographic Winter and the Barren Left
  26. Economics and atheism/Darwinism
  27. The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050, Pew Research Forum
  28. Status of Global Christianity, 2015, in the Context of 1900–2050
  29. Across the Asia Pacific, the population of atheists and agnostics is shrinking
  30. Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann
  31. Feminist Futility: Why the Women's March Promises a Conservative Future by Steve Turley, Christian Post
  32. The Future Will Be More Religious and Conservative Than You Think by Eric Kaufmann, American Enterprise Institute
  33. Is Christianity taking over the planet?
  34. 2000 YEARS OF CHRISTIAN INCREASE
  35. Is Christianity taking over the planet?
  36. Is Christianity taking over the planet?
  37. Is Christianity taking over the planet?
  38. Pentecostalism – Protestant Ethic or Cargo Cult?, Peter Berger, July 29, 2010
  39. Thriving Christianity
  40. Journal of Church and State, Desecularization: A Conceptual Framework by Vyacheslav Karpov, 2010
  41. Peter L. Berger, “The Desecularization of the World: A Global Overview,” in The Desecularization of the World: Resurgent Religion and World Politics, ed. Peter L. Berger (Grand Rapids: William B. Eerdmans Publishing Company, 1999)
  42. Pentecostalism – Protestant Ethic or Cargo Cult?, Peter Berger, July 29, 2010
  43. Why conservative churches are still growing
  44. Why conservative churches are still growing
  45. Secularism, Fundamentalism or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043, Journal for the Sientific Study of Religion, vol. 49, no. 2 (June) 2010, Vegard Skirbekk and Anne Goujon,
  46. Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century\ By Eric Kaufmann
  47. The Desecularization of the World: Resurgent Religion and World Politics by Peter L. Berger, Page 9
  48. Kaufmann, Eric. (2009 or aft.). "Shall the religious inherit the earth?: demography and politics in the twenty-first century". www.sneps.net. Paper similar to book Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century. Publ. in unknown publication. ("Most observers accept that the aftermath...") Retrieved July 27, 2014. See Eric Kaufmann.
  49. A surprising map of where the world’s atheists live, By Max Fisher and Caitlin Dewey, Washington Post, May 23, 2013
  50. Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann
  51. Kaufmann, Eric. (2009 or aft.). "Shall the religious inherit the earth?: demography and politics in the twenty-first century". www.sneps.net. Paper similar to book Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century. Publ. in unknown publication. ("Most observers accept that the aftermath...") Retrieved July 27, 2014. See Eric Kaufmann.
  52. When will the world be over half evangelical? by Justin Long
  53. When Will China Become the World’s Largest Christian Country?, Slate
  54. In China, a church-state showdown of biblical proportions
  55. Cracks in the atheist edifice, The Economist, November 1, 2014
  56. When will the world be over half evangelical? by Justin Long
  57. Decline in UK Christianity 'halts', Prremier
  58. 5 facts about the Muslim population in Europe by Conrad Hackett, Pew Forum, November 17, 2015
  59. 5 facts about the Muslim population in Europe by Conrad Hackett, Pew Forum, November 17, 2015
  60. Philip Jenkins, Demographics, Religion, and the Future of Europe, Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs, vol. 50, no. 3, pp. 533, summer 2006
  61. Shall the religious inherit the earth?, 2010 Interview with Eric Kaufmann by MercatorNet
  62. Can Europe Stay Europe After Muslim Migrant Surge? Doubtful
  63. Shall the Righteous Inherit the Earth? Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann
  64. Shall the Righteous Inherit the Earth? Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann
  65. FactCheck: will Britain have a Muslim majority by 2050?
  66. The Islamization of Germany in 2016
  67. Attacks against Muslims on the rise after Paris strikes
  68. When Worlds Collide: Unassimilable Muslim Migrants Crash Europe’s Fantasy Islam
  69. Muslim Sacralized rape and feminized Sweden
  70. Europe's future
  71. The Major Roadblock to Muslim Assimilation in Europe, The Atlantic, 2011
  72. Government Of Spain Makes New Law: Muslims Will No Longer Be Allowed To Come Through Our Borders
  73. Evolution rejected by hundreds of millions of Muslims and evangelicals, Vancouver Sun, October 4, 2014
  74. Evolution rejected by hundreds of millions of Muslims and evangelicals, Vancouver Sun, October 4, 2014. 9:12 am
  75. Creationism spreading in Europe
  76. FactCheck: will Britain have a Muslim majority by 2050?
  77. [The Muslim theory of evolution] by Ghaffar Hussain On 14 January 2013 10:03
  78. Muslim population 'rising 10 times faster than rest of society' 30 January 2009, Richard Kerbaj, The Sunday Times
  79. Harun Yahya’s Islamic Creationism: What It Is and Isn’t by Stefano Bigliardi Volume 38.1, January/February 2014
  80. Migration is spreading creationism across Europe, claims academic by Riazat Butt, religious affairs correspondent, Friday 13 November 2009 07.49 EST
  81. Richard Dawkins says Christianity is world's best defence against radical Islam, Christianity Today, January 2016
  82. Richard Dawkins: Muslim parents 'import creationism' into schools, The Telegraph
  83. Two views about how Darwinism stays in place, with but one difference
  84. The Nation with a soul of a church
  85. Hout, Michael; Smith, Tom (March 2015). "Fewer Americans Affiliate with Organized Religions, Belief and Practice Unchanged: Key Findings from the 2014 General Social Survey" (PDF). General Social Survey. NORC
  86. The Nation with a soul of a church
  87. Suspicions Confirmed: Academia Shutting Out Conservative Professors
  88. Suspicions Confirmed: Academia Shutting Out Conservative Professors
  89. The Nation with a soul of a church
  90. 7 alarming trends for the atheist movement
  91. Why are 2012 and 2020 key years for Christian creationists and pro-lifers?
  92. Hitchens: America's Enemy 'Most Godly Imaginable Group', Newsbusters
  93. The Facts: Atheism is Dying Out, by Rev. Dwight Longenecker, April 8, 2015
  94. Meet the 'Nones:' Spiritual but not religious
  95. Meet the 'Nones:' Spiritual but not religious
  96. Why people with no religion are projected to decline as a share of the world’s population, Pew Forum
  97. Shall the religious inherit the earth
  98. *European immigration will pour Christian creationists into Europe
  99. Internet atheism: The thrill is gone!
  100. Reddit Atheists Have New Leadership After Turbulent Coup
  101. Reddit Atheists Have New Leadership After Turbulent Coup
  102. Brendan O'Neill, The Telegraph, How atheists became the most colossally smug and annoying people on the planet, August 14th, 2013
  103. Paul Kurtz: Another atheist failure who left no legacy
  104. Shall the religious inherit the earth
  105. China's atheist leaders and intellectuals are panicking about the rapid growth of Christianity in China