Hockey Stick Hoax

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The Hockey Stick Hoax[1] was perpetrated by Michael Mann in the form of a fraudulent[2] reconstruction of the Earth's atmosphere temperature created by Michael Mann from various proxies such as tree rings, superimposed on the record of thermometer readings from ground-based weather stations. The proxy estimates go back 1,000 years, while the thermometer readings date from 1850. It was used to justify the anthropogenic global warming theory (AGW), but the fraud was exposed by two Canadian statistics experts. Mann's graph, which was shaped like a hockey stick, portrayed temperatures as steadily declining since medieval times and then sharply rising in the last century and a half. Notably, his reconstruction fueled claims that 1998 and following years had the highest temperatures in 1,000 years.

Contents

Deceit

Michael Mann's hockey stick chart was obviously false. Because of its deceitful appearance, many scientists protested Mann's graph and the data behind it. However, Mann initially refused to reveal any of his data or methods - even though his work was supported by the U.S. government - which made it exceedingly difficult for other scientists to replicate his work.

  • In the case of the Mann et al [1998,1999] study, used for the IPCC's 'hockey stick' graph, Mann was initially unable to remember where the data was located, then provided inaccurate data, then provided a new version of the data which was inconsistent with previously published material, etc. The National Post has recently reported on my experience as this unfolded.[3]

Eventually, McIntyre and McKitrick learned enough about Mann's data and methods to discover where he went wrong. But the political climate made it very difficult for the correct information to find a publisher.

Tree rings

Eventually, McIntyre and McKitrick learned enough about Mann's data and methods to discover where he went wrong. But the political climate made it very difficult for the correct information to find a publisher.

The UN climate panel (IPCC) decided to stop using the traditionally accepted proxy estimates, which had shown a distinct (and naturally caused) Medieval Warm Period followed by a Little Ice Age. Without giving any reason for this change, they elevated recent PhD grantee Michael Mann (based at the highly liberal University of Massachusetts - Amherst) to a lead author of one of their assessments.

Admission of guilt

Mann has refused to admit any guilt for perpetrating the hoax, and still tries to defend his graph on his blog. But other scientists quietly admitted that the graph is, quote, "an overly optimistic assessment of the degree to which past temperatures were understood" and stopped using it.[4] The IPCC has moved on to the spaghetti graph, which combines a bunch of different graphs with totally different "facts" about climate history.

References

  1. "The Hockey Stick Hoax should be a scandal as big as the discovery of the Piltdown Man Hoax."Civilization Watch - March 4, 2007 - All in a Good Cause - The Ornery American
  2. "The hockey stick, the poster-child of the global warming community, turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics,"[1] Physicist Richard Mueller, Technology Review, 2004.
  3. http://www.climateaudit.org/index.php?p=66
  4. http://coast.gkss.de/staff/zorita/Frank_etal_WIRESCllmChange_2010.pdf

See also

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