Essay:Howard Stern voting effect
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In June of 2004, Howard Stern said the following:
- "John Kerry will receive more votes because of this. ... My audience will vote in a bloc."
- "We're also in a lot of key states. ... If we can affect that state that's big news."
The mainstream media claimed that Stern controlled a large percentage of votes, and that his listeners would generally do what he said. This article measures the "Howard Stern voting effect" on the 2004 presidential election in some of his biggest markets.
"Blue" states where Stern could be heard:
New York
Bush 2000 Votes: 2,403,374
Bush 2004 Votes: 2,780,749
Stern Gained Bush: 377,375 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: -24.98%
Bush 2004 Margin: -17.27%
Stern Gained Bush: 7.71%
Pennsylvania
Bush 2000 Votes: 2,281,127
Bush 2004 Votes: 2,725,750
Stern Gained Bush: 444,623 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: -4.17%
Bush 2004 Margin: -2.4%
Stern Gained Bush: 1.77%
California
Bush 2000 Votes: 4,567,429
Bush 2004 Votes: 4,406,033
Stern Lost Bush: 161,396 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: -11.28%
Bush 2004 Margin: -10.28%
Stern Gained Bush: 1%
Massachusetts
Bush 2000 Votes: 878,502
Bush 2004 Votes: 1,055,121
Stern Gained Bush: 176,619 Votes (in Kerry's Home State)
Overall:
Bush 2000 Margin: -27.3%
Bush 2004 Margin: -25.2%
Stern Gained Bush: 2.1%
Hotly contested states
Ohio
Bush 2000 Votes: 2,351,209
Bush 2004 Votes: 2,783,655
Stern Gained Bush: 432,446 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: 3.51%
Bush 2004 Margin: 2.39%
Stern Cost Bush: 1.12%
Florida
Bush 2000 Votes: 2,912,790
Bush 2004 Votes: 3,812,485
Stern Gained Bush: 899,695 Votes
Bush 2000 Margin: .01%
Bush 2004 Margin: 5.03%
Stern Gained Bush: 5.02%
Totals
Bush 2000 Votes in Reviewed States: 15,394,431
Bush 2004 Votes in Reviewed States: 17,563,793
Stern Gained Bush: 2,169,362 Votes
Overall:
Bush 2000 Margin in Reviewed States: -6.79% (15,394,431 of 34,564,438 total votes)
Bush 2004 Margin in Reviewed States: -1.09% (17,563,793 of 37,688,556 total votes (prelim))
Stern Gained Bush: 5.7%