User:Conservative/Economics

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Economics

General economic trend forecasting related info

Sources:

America's affluent

Miscellaneous general financial and business websites

Other economic and business sources

Establishment financial:

Austrian and other financial:


ECRI videos:

Contents


General principles of investing

Matterhorn - "Well John, it is going to be difficult for you, but I think we can make it together." - Alfons, the climbing guide. [4]

Personal Principles:

From Invest in Yourself by Mark Eisenson, Gerri Detweiler, and Nancy Castleman:

"According to Gerald Celente, Director of the Trends Research Institute and author of Trends 2000, the key to tracking trends is to read two newspapers every day with a purpose — either The Wall Street Journal or The Financial Times, plus The New York Times or USA Today. Look for stories with social, economic, and political significance, be it about the difficulties older suburbs face or the current currency crisis. (You’ll know by the headline or the first paragraph.) Skip the stories that are purely human interest or that are about something that hasn’t happened yet (for example, a jury resuming deliberation on a sensational trial).

When a crisis does occur, tune in to the extra in-depth analyses that you’ll find in accompanying background pieces probably in more than one of the newspapers. Read them as though you’re a “political atheist,” Celente recommends — not for what you want or hope, but for what is really going on, not only in your own profession or industry, but for trends that may directly or indirectly shape the future.[5]


Rather than searching for decent jobs that are very hard to find, some Americans are deciding to become self-employed.[6] Robert P. Murphy, an economist at the Mises Institute, recommends that one of the best measures to protect against a future economic depression is to develop multiple streams of income rather than risk depending on one or two income sources which may disappear in a depression.[7] Americans are using creative ways to launch a wide variety of low cost businesses.[8][9][10][11]


Market volatility strategies:

Investor psychological traps:

Tech investing:

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

Diversification and asset classes

"Diversification and globalization are the keys to the future." - Fujio Mitarai

Angel investing study - 27% return - Kaufman study

Investor view:

Angel investor groups:

Entrepreneur view:

Accredited investor criteria:

CAN SLIM investing

List of countries by by GDP (nominal) per capita

Investor and trader psychological profiles

Emerging markets

CIVETS

The decade of the CIVETS - Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa

Philippines

Africa

Conservation investing

David Rosenburg

Tech boom

Meltdown on Main street - NewsMax - High dividend stock strategy and other strategies

"Bob Wiedemer, co-author with Tom Hutchinson of America's Bubble Economy and the New York Times best-selling book "Aftershock", discussed the topic, "Meltdown on Main Street on a program aired by Newsmax. He discussed the rapid extinction of the American middle class — a social and economic catastrophe that has impacted people's ability to achieve prosperity. He is offering a program called The Middle-Class Survival Package, and it includes a brand-new, full-feature DVD presentation, Fortified Income Strategies, and Tom's new book, Powerful Secrets to Achieve Superior Returns."[12]

Dogs of the Dow strategy making resurgence

MOAT Strategy - Warren Buffet - Value Investing - morningstar

20 stocks for the long term

Other investing and stock trading resources

1. Intelligent investor - classic book on value investing

2. Lies your broker tells you - gives advice on investing including reputable mutual funds

Investment strategies - Google news

Absolute return strategies and economic climates

Yale University uses an absolute return strategy which is responsive to economic climates. Has achieved consistent returns. Austrian school economists have had superior predicting of downturns as of late compared to Keynesian economists.

Stock trading

1. Stockinvesting.net (trading not long term investing)

2. 5 books which will transform your trading

3. Martin D. Weiss

Short trading

Banning of short selling in a crisis:

Elliot wave theorists - speculative and subjective - at odds with efficient market hypothesis

(Technical analysis only goes so far and studying the fundamentals and value investing have yielding excellent results)

Making money during the expected upcoming recession or depression

Plutonomy stocks

Commodity investing

General advice

Agriculture and food investing

Government money printing strengthens commodities which includes food commodities, world population expected to grow to 9 billion by 2050, stability - in a down economy people still have to eat - ag and food stocks will quickly rebound from a down market or market panic, opposition to science/evidence based increases in crop yields will likely wither when push comes to shove and people need to be fed and second green revolution will happen. Science based initiatives to increase crop yields will see increased advocacy - especially in developing countries which are increasing in their influence such as India.

Good food stock investments:

Specific ag and food companies:

Ag eqpt:

Food distributors:

Miscellaneous:

Gold and silver

Other:

Gold:

Farmland investing

Fertilizer

Organic fertilizers

Fertilizer investments

Real estate

Best real estate investments

Best international real estate investments

Real estate investing

Realty investing:

Cash is king:

Real estate selling, landlording and mortgage loan origination

Realtor incomes:


Real estate sales, lead generation:

Online lead generation


Mortgage loan officer brokers, income:

Landlording:

Landlording (classic book)

Conforming Mortgage Loans

Debt to income ratio and other criteria:

Private lenders:

Non-profit, NACA:

Tech investing

The decline/death of cash

Miscellaneous stocks in a online economy, global economy and/or rebounding economy

  • UPS - online shopping and international package delivery
  • Fed Ex - online related shopping and international related shipping

Major economies and total debt to GDP

Trends, Predictions and stats

People who predicted 2008 crisis:

Trends:

Predictions and stats:


Stats:

The rise and decline of nations by Mancur Olson

The rise and decline of nations by Mancur Olson

Economic collapse

Vox Day indicates that debut fueled GDP growth will ultimately lead to a Great Depression 2.0 that will last for a decade or more.[13][14] Vox Day was one of the few that predicted the 2007 financial crisis. Gerald Celente argues that debt and a reduced productive capacity will also lead to a severe economic depression. Austrian economists are generally better at predicting recessions/depressions due to financial bubbles bursting which are the result of governmental policies or other factors.[15]

Predicting when the Great Depression 2.0 in the short term is very difficult due to the band aids the central banks are putting on the Western economies. Jim Rogers is an excellent investor but lousy trader and often financial analysts have problems predicting the short term.

Historical guide of when a big downturn will hit by Jeremy Grantham: "We do think the market is going to go higher because the Fed hasn't ended its game, and it won't stop playing until we are in old-fashioned bubble territory and it bursts, which usually happens at two standard deviations from the market's mean. That would take us to 2,350 on the S&P 500, or roughly 25% from where we are now."[16] Grantham predicts 7 years of negative returns for the stock market once the bubble burst.[17]

If stock market gets out of its current stall, based on recent anemic growth of S&P 500, an economic crash could happen in the first/second quarter of 2015. Americans are dispirited though and ObamaCare isn't going to make things any better so downturn could happen in 2014 (Even Soros is betting against the S&P 500 and is exercising put options.[18][19]).

Predicting a market crash by the consensus opinion is foolhardy and you will never see it coming. [20] 2014 will see a lot of volatility.[21]

Hedging your bets in case of a stock market crash.[22]

When countries go bankrupt

Is the USA bankrupt and postponing the inevitable?

U.S. Debt crisis

The problem with over printing money

Economic effects of war

Economic collapse and related

US federal govt debt as a percentage of GDP: http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt_chart.html

  • Expected Congressional gridlock and Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing policy will not work and stock market could take an abrupt downturn in about 6 months or less.[23][24][25]

Effects of global financial collapse:

Potential economic collapse:

Comparison of current crises to the 17 century economic problems

The leading investment expert Harry Schultz writes: “Roughly speaking, the mess we are in is the worst since 17th century financial collapse. Comparisons with the 1930’s are ludicrous. We’ve gone far beyond that. And, alas, the courage & political will to recognize the mess & act wisely to reverse gears, is absent in U.S. leadership, where the problems were hatched & where the rot is by far the deepest.”[28]

Some articles on the 17th century "General Crises" can be read HERE and HERE and HERE

Recessions after fiscal crises take much longer to recover historically

Eurocrises

Oil

Russia

East and economics

Michael Spence - Interview re: his book The Next Convergence

India and investing

China

China vs. India economies - Which has the best prospects?

Demographic winter/Aging Population and economics

Switzerland

(photo obtained from Flickr, see license agreement)

American echo boomers assisting economy:


Birth rate:

Demographic winter may not be as bad as first thought:

Religious vs. secular birthrates:

Early paper - Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann, Belfer Center, Harvard University/Birkbeck College, University of London

Dent Method of investing:

India, economics and fertility statistics:

World population, to 2050 - UN forecast:

U.S. Hispanics and economics:

Other:

Labor shortages, low fertility rates and immigration in developed countries

“Unless fertility rates dramatically improve,” Turnbull cautioned, “societies with birth rates substantially below replacement level will either dwindle into an ­insignificant fraction of their current ­numbers or be swamped by larger and larger waves of immigration.”[29]

US financial position and national deficit

Sound advice from King Solomon

Proverbs 10:12: "If you are slack in the day of distress, Your strength is limited."

Proverbs 21:5: "The plans of the diligent lead surely to advantage, But everyone who is hasty comes surely to poverty."

Financial collapse

Eurocrisis:


General financial collapse:

Morality and financial collapse

National statistics

Death spiral states and most atheistic cities

Most Business friendly states in the United States - 2012

Texas:

Florida:


Major trends

Robotics:

Localism movement

Taxes


Car

Income disparities

Arguments for


Arguments against

Books:

The Myth of Liberal Ascendancy: Corporate Dominance from the Great Depression to the Great Recession

Some causes

Other

Stats

Protestant work ethic

Academic research indicates that belief in hell/heaven and various religious heritages are associated with increased economic activity and lower corruption. [1][2] The biblical creation affirming United States has a high GDP relative to many evolution believing countries. [3]

Poverty of nations: A sustainable solution

References

  1. [1]
  2. [2]
  3. [3]
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