Although the Iowa Caucuses are more than a century old, they were not seen as a significant means of predicting the outcome of the Republican and Democratic nominations until the early 1970's. George McGovern's success in winning the Democratic nomination in 1972, and later in 1976, Jimmy Carter's winning the nomination after winning the Iowa Caucus gave credibility to the contest.
Unlike the Democrats, the Republicans paid little attention to the Iowa caucus until 1976 when Gerald Ford narrowly beat Ronald Reagan in an informal straw poll held at the caucuses, leading to Reagan's loss in the presidential primary nomination.
The significance of the Iowa Caucus has varied. In 1992, Iowa Senator Tom Harkins ran for the Democratic presidential nomination. Because of Harkins's popularity in Iowa, none of the Democratic candidates chose to compete in the state. United States Senator John Kerry won the Democratic Iowa caucus and later the nomination for the party's presidential candidate. North Carolina Senator John Edwards came in a close second, and later joined the Kerry campaign as vice presidential candidate.
2008 Iowa Caucuses
The 2008 Iowa Caucuses were originally to be held on Monday, January 14, 2008. But they were rescheduled to January 3, 2008.
Current presidential primary contestants shows the three top tier candidates, New York senator Hillary Clinton, North Carolina Senator John Edwards and Illinois Senator Barack Obama at a close race in Iowa polls. According to a ABC-Washington Post poll, Obama stands in first place with support of 27% of likely voters, Clinton and Edwards are tied at 26%. In 2004, Edwards took second place at the Iowa and has since remained consistently popular among Democrats in the state. Former New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson, is the only other candidate to reach double digits with 11%. A NewsMax/Zogby Iowa Democratic poll in late August 2007, put Clinton in first place, with 30 percent, among likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers.Edwards received 23 percent support, while Obama received 19 percent..
The Republican Iowa Caucus has been closely tied with a non-official primary event, the Iowa Straw Poll. Former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney had held a consistent lead, although the race remained very close to the end.
|October 17th 2007||Mitt Romney 26%||Fred Thompson 19%||Mike Huckabee 18%||Rudy Giuliani 13%||John McCain 6%|
|October 1-3||Mitt Romney 29%||Fred Thompson 16%||Mike Huckabee 12%||Rudy Giuliani 11%||John McCain 7%|
- 2008- Barack Obama (38%) defeats John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (30%), Bill Richardson (2%), Joe Biden (0.9%), Chris Dodd (0.02%)
- 2004- John Kerry (26%) defeats John Edwards (23%), Howard Dean (20%), Dick Gephardt (18%), Dennis Kucinich (3%)
- 2000- Al Gore (63%) defeats Bill Bradley (35%)
- 1996- Bill Clinton wins unopposed
- 1992 - Tom Harkin (76%) defeats Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton* (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown (2%)
- 1988 - Dick Gephardt defeats (31%) Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis* (22%) and Bruce Babbitt (6%)
- 1980- Jimmy Carter (59%) defeats Ted Kennedy (31%)
- 1976 - "Uncommitted" (37%) Jimmy Carter* (28%) Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%) and Henry Jackson (1%)
- 1972 - Edmund Muskie (36%) George McGovern (23%), Hubert Humphrey* (2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%), Shirley Chisholm (1%) and Henry Jackson (1%)
- 2008- Mike Huckabee (34%) defeats Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (3%), Duncan Hunter (0%)
- 2004- George W. Bush wins unopposed
- 2000- George W. Bush ( 40.99%) defeats Steve Forbes (30.50% ), Alan Keyes (14.24%), Gary Bauer (8.53%), and John McCain (4.67%)
- 1996- Bob Dole (26%) defeats Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%) and Maurice Taylor (1%)
- 1992'- George H. W. Bush wins unopposed.
- 1988- Bob Dole (37%) defeats Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush* (19%), Jack Kemp (11%) and Pete DuPont (7%)
- 1984- Ronald Reagan* (unopposed)
- 1980- George H. W. Bush (32%) Ronald Reagan* (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%) and Bob Dole (2%)
- 1976- Gerald Ford* defeats Ronald Reagan
*Went on to win party nomination
- Johnson, Haynes, and Dan Balz. The Battle for America 2008: The Story of an Extraordinary Election (2009) very good report on 2008 caucuses.
- Skipper, John C. The Iowa Caucuses: First Tests of Presidential Aspiration, 1972-2008 (2009)