Presidential Election 2012

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The 2012 United States Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. It will occur at the same time as elections to all seats in the House of Representatives and to one-third of seats in the Senate. Incumbent Democratic president Barack Obama is presumed to be seeking re-election in this election, although liberal President Lyndon Johnson did voluntarily decline to run for reelection after his poor showing the New Hampshire primary in 1968. A Republican candidate will almost certainly be elected president in 2012 and/or 2016, based on historical trends.

As yet, no Republicans or Democratic challengers have declared their candidacy. The current GOP front-runners, however, are former governors Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, Governors Bobby Jindal and Tim Pawlenty, and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. With Obama's declining popularity among independents, liberals, and moderates, Hillary Clinton's public approval ratings have gained.[1]

Beginning in January 2011, candidates will signal publicly their intentions to run. Mitt Romney, for example, filed papers with the Federal Election Commission on Jan. 3, 2007, in order to seek election as president in 2008. His early commitment is credited for his ability to far out-raise the other candidates, and to earn endorsements from conservatives such as Rick Santorum and Marsha Blackburn. Of course, intentions to run are communicated privately much earlier than the public filings, so many will be lining up support and potential endorsements throughout 2010 for the 2012 presidential election.

Four Segments of the Republican Party

There are four basic components of the Republican Party. To win the nomination, a candidate needs to obtain the support of at least two out of four:[2]

  1. social conservatives (pro-life, pro-marriage, pro-Republican Party platform)
  2. libertarians (lower taxes, less government, pro-business, anti-union)
  3. religious voters (Baptists, Presbyterians, Catholics, evangelicals, Mormons)
  4. neoconservatives (foreign intervention, "better" government)

In 2008, John McCain won the nomination by capturing the support of 1 and 4 above. Ron Paul had the support of 2. Mitt Romney enjoyed support by 2 and part of 3. Mike Huckabee had support of 1 and part of 3. The division of 3 by Romney and Huckabee caused them to block either other: Huckabee blocked Romney in Iowa, and Romney returned the favor in New Hampshire. This dynamic prevented either from winning the nomination.

In 2000, George Bush won with the support of 1 and 3. But John McCain enjoyed the support from 2 and 4 and this enabled him to win the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries, giving Bush a close contest. Some felt McCain mishandled his victory in Michigan.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan had the support of 1 and 2.

Potential Republican Candidates for 2012

Candidate Pros Cons Fox News Exposure
Mitt Romney First runner-up in 2008, business experience, Republican governor of a Democratic state Once supported abortion and civil unions; his costly health care plan included mandatory insurance and became the model for ObamaCare; won only 15% in the South Carolina primary in 2008 Occasionally on Fox
Jeb Bush More conservative than his brother George W. Bush, and popular in pivotal Florida; criticized Palin as a rival candidate might[3] Could be tagged with negatives via George, which may cause him to wait until 2016 Rarely appears on Fox
Rick Santorum Outspoken supporter of conservative values as a senator, well-received by Iowan evangelicals at campaign-like event in March 2010 His all-out support of RINO and now-Democrat Arlen Specter prevented Pat Toomey from defeating him in 2002, and Santorum endorsed Romney for President in 2008; could simply be a stalking horse in 2012 Promoted on Fox
Jim Demint strong support by social conservatives, libertarians[4], Tea Party, and evangelicals; a tenacious advocate willing to criticize Obama a Southern conservative who will need to work hard to gain support in Iowa and New Hampshire, the key early primary states[5] Rarely appears on Fox
Sarah Palin Empathetic, attracts crowds, pro-life, superlative fundraiser Doubts whether she is a movement conservative; resigned early as governor; irrational liberal hatred of her. Promoted by Fox
Steve King A conservative Iowa congressman who could win the Iowa caucuses; resonates well with independents; recommended by Bachmann[6] Not well known yet Rarely allowed on Fox
Todd Akin A movement conservative from Missouri, which he serves as a congressman Not well known yet Rarely allowed on Fox`
John Thune Defeated Tom Daschle, conservative voting record; also taller than Obama Not widely known yet; formerly supported McCain-Feingold campaign finance Rarely allowed on Fox
Newt Gingrich Articulate, credited with 1994 landslide Takes not-so-conservative positions today, such as promoting a Con Con Promoted by Fox
Mike Huckabee Pro-life, pro-Second Amendment and pro-Bible Supported bigger government, released man who then killed officers Promoted by Fox
Bob McDonnell Won landslide election as Virginia governor; has Obama's height Not widely known yet, but gave Republican response to State of the Union Rarely allowed on Fox
Tim Pawlenty Young; popular in his home state of Minnesota Still not well known outside of Minnesota; accepted stimulus funds after arguing against them Sometimes on Fox
Marco Rubio A rising young star in Florida, a key swing state; an electrifying speaker Will face liberal double standard: what's OK for Obama (e.g., inexperience) is somehow not OK for a conservative
Scott Brown Proven ability to appeal to moderate voters even in blue states Inexperience; already voting with the Democrats in the Senate Has been on Fox
Rudy Giuliani Widely respected for his post-9/11 leadership in New York City Struck out completely as a candidate in 2008; very weak on important social issues; cross-dressing for comedic purposes when it suited him Frequently on Fox
Michele Bachmann A movement conservative who is popular in a Democratic region As with Ronald Reagan, liberal bias is at its worst against her; she's said she's not running for president this soon[6] On Fox as she's in the news
Dick Cheney Prominent and consistent opposition to Obama Of dubious health; has explicitly disavowed interest in running Has been on Fox

Potential Democratic Candidates

Candidate Pros Cons MSNBC exposure
Evan Bayh Democratic base sees Bayh's retirement from the Senate as "a symbol of what's wrong with the party" as moderates are increasingly marginalized. [2] Lags behind Obama in fundraising. [3] Has appeared on MSNBC
Hillary Clinton Kennedy and Reid can't stop her now, and she would be 71 if she waited until 2016; highest approval ratings of any potential challenger.[7] Her feminism is not wanted and she'd lose as Martha Coakley did Disfavored on MSNBC
Barack Obama He's not Hillary Clinton, and he receives biased support from the media He depends on a teleprompter to speak, and has run the nation into the ground Heavily promoted on MSNBC

References

  1. Peter Roff, A Hillary Clinton Primary Challenge to Obama in 2012?, USNews and World Report, January 27, 2010.
  2. Traditionally commentators have referred to the three legs of the Republican Party: the values voters, the small businessmen, and the national security supporters. While that model still has support, it fails to account for recent shifts (such as the Tea Party Movement) and the impact of new media (such as FoxNews).
  3. In a Newsmax interview in February 2010, Jeb criticized Palin by saying, "my belief is in 2010 and 2012, public leaders need to have intellectual curiosity." [1]
  4. Jim Demint has the best favorable-unfavorable rating of anyone at CPAC 2010.
  5. http://politics.theatlantic.com/2010/02/the_2012_dark_horse_is.php
  6. 6.0 6.1 http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/app/blogs/politically_speaking/?p=1205
  7. 58% View Hillary Clinton Favorably, January 19, 2010. Retrieved February 15, 2010.