Difference between revisions of "User:Conservative/Economics"

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*[https://www.google.com/search?q=farmland+investing&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a#q=farmland+investing&hl=en&client=firefox-a&hs=7cJ&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&prmd=imvns&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ei=Bj4vUM7EA4b96gH3h4GgCg&ved=0CA4Q_AUoBA&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&fp=c08de25ad6c9a29&biw=1024&bih=550 Farmland investing - Google news]
*[https://www.google.com/search?q=farmland+investing&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a#q=farmland+investing&hl=en&client=firefox-a&hs=7cJ&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&prmd=imvns&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ei=Bj4vUM7EA4b96gH3h4GgCg&ved=0CA4Q_AUoBA&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&fp=c08de25ad6c9a29&biw=1024&bih=550 Farmland investing - Google news]
== Conservation investing ==
*[http://www.businessinsider.com/water-could-be-the-worlds-next-biggest-market-2013-1 Water]
== David Rosenburg ==
== David Rosenburg ==

Revision as of 15:38, 19 January 2013


General economic trend forecasting related info


Miscellaneous general financial and business websites:

Other economic and business sources:

Establishment financial:

Austrian and other financial:

ECRI videos:


General principles

Matterhorn - "Well John, it is going to be difficult for you, but I think we can make it together." - Alfons, the climbing guide. [1]

Personal Principles:

From Invest in Yourself by Mark Eisenson, Gerri Detweiler, and Nancy Castleman:

"According to Gerald Celente, Director of the Trends Research Institute and author of Trends 2000, the key to tracking trends is to read two newspapers every day with a purpose — either The Wall Street Journal or The Financial Times, plus The New York Times or USA Today. Look for stories with social, economic, and political significance, be it about the difficulties older suburbs face or the current currency crisis. (You’ll know by the headline or the first paragraph.) Skip the stories that are purely human interest or that are about something that hasn’t happened yet (for example, a jury resuming deliberation on a sensational trial).

When a crisis does occur, tune in to the extra in-depth analyses that you’ll find in accompanying background pieces probably in more than one of the newspapers. Read them as though you’re a “political atheist,” Celente recommends — not for what you want or hope, but for what is really going on, not only in your own profession or industry, but for trends that may directly or indirectly shape the future.[3]

Rather than searching for decent jobs that are very hard to find, some Americans are deciding to become self-employed.[4] Robert P. Murphy, an economist at the Mises Institute, recommends that one of the best measures to protect against a future economic depression is to develop multiple streams of income rather than risk depending on one or two income sources which may disappear in a depression.[5] Americans are using creative ways to launch a wide variety of low cost businesses.[6][7][8][9]

Market volatility strategies:

Tech investing:

Commodity investing

General advice

Agriculture and food investing

Government money printing strengthens commodities which includes food commodities, world population expected to grow to 9 billion by 2050, stability - in a down economy people still have to eat - ag and food stocks will quickly rebound from a down market or market panic, opposition to science/evidence based increases in crop yields will likely wither when push comes to shove and people need to be fed and second green revolution will happen. Science based initiatives to increase crop yields will see increased advocacy - especially in developing countries which are increasing in their influence such as India.[10]

Good food stock investments:

Specific ag and food companies:

Ag eqpt:

Food distributors:


Gold and silver



Farmland investing

Conservation investing

David Rosenburg

Tech boom

Meltdown on Main street - NewsMax - High dividend stock strategy and other strategies

"Bob Wiedemer, co-author with Tom Hutchinson of America's Bubble Economy and the New York Times best-selling book "Aftershock", discussed the topic, "Meltdown on Main Street on a program aired by Newsmax. He discussed the rapid extinction of the American middle class — a social and economic catastrophe that has impacted people's ability to achieve prosperity. He is offering a program called The Middle-Class Survival Package, and it includes a brand-new, full-feature DVD presentation, Fortified Income Strategies, and Tom's new book, Powerful Secrets to Achieve Superior Returns."[11]

Dogs of the Dow strategy making resurgence

Other investing and stock trading resources

1. Intelligent investor - classic book on value investing

2. Lies your broker tells you - gives advice on investing including reputable mutual funds

Investment strategies - Google news

Absolute return strategies and economic climates

Yale University uses an absolute return strategy which is responsive to economic climates. Has achieved consistent returns. Austrian school economists have had superior predicting of downturns as of late compared to Keynesian economists.

Stock trading

1. Stockinvesting.net (trading not long term investing)

2. 5 books which will transform your trading

3. Martin D. Weiss

Short trading

Banning of short selling in a crisis:

Elliot wave theorists - speculative and subjective - at odds with efficient market hypothesis

(Technical analysis only goes so far and studying the fundamentals and value investing have yielding excellent results)

Making money during the expected upcoming recession or depression

Real estate

Best real estate investments

Best international real estate investments

Real estate investing

Realty investing:

Cash is king:

Real estate selling, landlording and mortgage loan origination

Realtor incomes:

Real estate sales, lead generation:

Online lead generation

real estate lead generation - future is online marketing

Mortgage loan officer brokers, income:


Landlording (classic book)

Conforming Mortgage Loans

Debt to income ratio and other criteria:

Private lenders:

Non-profit, NACA:

Tech investing

Miscellaneous stocks in a online economy, global economy and/or rebounding economy

  • UPS - online shopping and international package delivery
  • Fed Ex - online related shopping and international related shipping

Major economies and total debt to GDP

Trends, Predictions and stats

People who predicted 2008 crisis:


Predictions and stats:

Economic collapse

US federal govt debt as a percentage of GDP: http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt_chart.html

  • Expected Congressional gridlock and Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing policy will not work and stock market could take an abrupt downturn in about 6 months or less.[15][16][17]

Effects of global financial collapse:

Historical documentary on American deficit:

Potential economic collapse:

Comparison of current crises to the 17 century economic problems

The leading investment expert Harry Schultz writes: “Roughly speaking, the mess we are in is the worst since 17th century financial collapse. Comparisons with the 1930’s are ludicrous. We’ve gone far beyond that. And, alas, the courage & political will to recognize the mess & act wisely to reverse gears, is absent in U.S. leadership, where the problems were hatched & where the rot is by far the deepest.”[20]

Some articles on the 17th century "General Crises" can be read HERE and HERE and HERE




The decade of the CIVETS - Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa


East and economics

Michael Spence - Interview re: his book The Next Convergence

India and investing


China vs. India economies - Which has the best prospects?

Demographic winter/Aging Population and economics


(photo obtained from Flickr, see license agreement)

Demographic winter may not be as bad as first thought:

Religious vs. secular birthrates:

Early paper - Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann, Belfer Center, Harvard University/Birkbeck College, University of London

Dent Method of investing:

India, economics and fertility statistics:

World population, to 2050 - UN forecast:

U.S. Hispanics and economics:


US financial position and national deficit

Sound advice from King Solomon

Proverbs 10:12: "If you are slack in the day of distress, Your strength is limited."

Proverbs 21:5: "The plans of the diligent lead surely to advantage, But everyone who is hasty comes surely to poverty."

Financial collapse


General financial collapse:

Morality and financial collapse

Beck: Nancy Pelosi, Richard Trumka and the Lasting Lesson from 'Three Little Pigs' by Glenn Beck

National statistics

Recession/depression resistance businesses

Matterhorn - "Get your eyes up. This is your dream. You are - on top of the Matterhorn." - Alfons, the climbing guide [2]

Recession/depression resistance businesses and low cost businesses:

Recession resistant businesses:

High profit businesses:

Diversification and asset classes

Annuities and long bear market cycles

Most Business friendly states in the United States - 2012



Major trends


Small business and internet

Internet economy and small business people

In 2011, CNN Money recently wrote:

- "While the Internet's impact has also killed some jobs, it creates about 2.6 jobs for every one destroyed"

- "Companies using the Internet with a high intensity grow twice as quickly as low-intensity Web companies, export twice as much as they do, and create more than twice as many jobs."

- "In the United States alone, the Internet drove 15% of the country's economic growth between 2004 and 2009"

Independent internet workers vs. other workers:

In November of 2011, CNBC reported:

"MBO Partners found just the opposite. Nearly 80 percent of independent workers in the survey say they are highly satisfied (58 percent) or satisfied (21 percent) with their work situation; just 11 percent are dissatisfied. Only 19 percent plan on looking for a traditional job in the next 24 months. Instead, 63 percent plan to continue as independent workers; 12 percent say they want to build their operations into businesses with employees."

In 2010, the popular news website The Week reported that only 45% of workers reported liking their jobs, so clearly independent workers are much happier with their working life than the average worker.

IT jobs still strong

Youth unemployment

Seth Godin:

Tony Wagner: