Essay: 21st century Christianity and sexual normalcy in the world. Africa will be far more influential than Russia

From Conservapedia
Jump to: navigation, search
A study conducted by the Washington-based Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life says that Africans are among the most religious people on Earth.[1]

Question: Should Jesus tarry, will Africa and African immigrants be far more influential than Russia concerning 21st century Christianity and sexual normalcy in the world?

Previously, I wrote the essays/articles below which show that Russia is not the most anti-homosexuality region of the world and that the homosexual agenda can be reversed in a region:

21st century Christianity and sexual normalcy in the world. Africa will be more influential than Russia

Key information: Please read the article Can Africa save Christianity if the West gives up on faith?

Fairly recently, Africa's fertility rate was 4.5 babies per woman and the region is largely anti-homosexuality. 50% of the world population growth for the next 18 years will come Africa (Africa’s population boom: burden or opportunity?, Institute For Security Studies).

Rosstat, Russia's statistics bureau, says in a recent report the most likely scenario is that Russia will lose about 5% of its population by 2046. Russia has a sub-replacement level fertility.

"I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious."- Eric Kaufmann[2]

Professor Eric Kaufmann, who teaches at Birkbeck College, University of London, specializes in the academic area of how demographic changes affect religion/irreligion and politics. Kaufmann is an agnostic.

On December 23, 2012, Kaufmann wrote:

I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.

On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British.[3] [4]

Regarding the Western World as a whole and the growth of the religious population in the West, Kaufmann wrote:

...this paper claims that the developing world will not only never catch up, but that, ironically, it is the West which will increasingly come to resemble the developing world. Committed religious populations are growing in the West, and will reverse the march of secularism before 2050. The logic which is driving this apparently anti-modern development is demography, a shadowy historical force whose power multiplies exponentially with the modernisation process. Demography is about raw numbers, and, in an age of low mortality, its chief components are fertility and migration.[5]

The above information confirms what I have been saying all along. Africa is far more the greatest source of hope to mankind than Russia. Faced with worker shortages and needing people to shore up its pension systems, greying and dying Europe and Russia, will have to turn a lot to African immigrants. While having some effectiveness, pro-natalism government policies, such as government subsidies related to women having babies, are expensive and insufficient to bring fertility rates to normal.[6] It takes religiosity to bring fertility rates to normal. And Russia has about a 1% church attendance rate.

In 2022, Russia had a population of 144.2 million people and that population is expected to significantly shrink in the 21st century (See: Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse). Africa has a fast growing population of around 1.4 billion people and many of them are immigrating and will continue to do so. As the former leader of the Soviet Union Joseph Stalin said, “Quantity has a quality all its own.”

Woody Allen famously said 80% of success is showing up. And the religious Africans will be showing up to the 21st century in big numbers, while the Russian population shrinks.

Religious upbringing and culture affects rates of homosexuality

See: Religious Upbringing and Culture Affects Rates of Homosexuality

Which region of the world is more religious - Africa or Russia?

Africans are among the most religious people on earth

See also: Religion and Africa

A study conducted by the Washington-based Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life says that Africans are among the most religious people on Earth.[1]

Russian identity, very low church attendance in Russia and the decline of Russian Orthodox Christians accompanied by the growth of pious Russian Orthodox believers

Also, according to a 2019 report "Using data from surveys carried out by the Higher School of Economics in Moscow in 2018, the sociologist Yana Roshchina worked out that while almost 81 percent of adult Russians consider themselves Orthodox, this is often a declaration of identity rather than faith. Just 6 percent of the population and 43 percent of believers go to church several times a month. According to Interior Ministry statistics, 4.3 million people across the country attended Easter services in 2019 – around 100,000 fewer than a year before."[7]

Cathedral of Christ the Saviour in Moscow, Russia

In 2023, the website Orthodox Christianity indicates:

According to a new survey from the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center, the overall percentage of Orthodox Christians has decreased in Russia in recent years, while the percentage of those who actively practice the faith is up.

There are especially fewer believers among young people, and the numerical advantage of Christians over Muslims is shrinking.

The results of the survey conducted in July show that 57% of Russians consider themselves Orthodox today, which is down 6% from 2019—a trend that has been observed over the past decades, writes RIA-Novosti.

According to religious scholar Roman Lunkin, the declining number comes from those who have identified themselves as “generally Orthodoxy” in the past—a diverse group that includes “unbelieving Orthodox” and Orthodox who don’t like the Russian Orthodox Church. He also proposed that less people are identifying themselves simply on cultural or ethnic grounds now.

Archpriest Maxim Kozlov, the chairman of the ROC’s Educational Committee believes the drop is at least partially due to the greater availability of information about the Orthodox faith: “People are starting to learn that being Orthodox means taking on more ethical obligations, restrictions in life. Someone doesn’t want to do this, so he distances himself.”

Amongst people aged 18 to 24, the portion of non-believers has grown by 5 points since 2019 to 42% today. Among 25 – 34-year-olds, there is a significant number who fluctuate between belief and unbelief or who consider themselves believers but without adherence to any specific religion (10% each).[8]

Survey data

Pew Research reported in 2017: "Relatively few Orthodox or Catholic adults in Central and Eastern Europe say they regularly attend worship services, pray often or consider religion central to their lives. For example, a median of just 10% of Orthodox Christians across the region say they go to church on a weekly basis."[9]

In 2022, it was reported that attendance at Russian Orthodox Church services in Russia has dropped to around one percent.[10]

Catholicism and Protestantism are growing branches of Christianity. Eastern Orthodoxy is shrinking. The Russian Orthodox Church is a subset of Eastern Orthodoxy

The three biggest branches of Christianity are Catholicism, Protestantism, and Eastern Orthodoxy. The Russian Orthodox Church is part of the Eastern Orthodox branch of Christianity.

Catholicism and Protestantism are growing branches of Christianity. Eastern Orthodoxy is shrinking.[11]

Branches of Christianity - timeline

Branches of Christianity.jpg

Russia is viewed negatively by most Americans and in much of the world

Much of the world views Russia negatively

"Across 24 countries surveyed, views of Russia are overwhelmingly negative, with a median of 82% saying they have an unfavorable opinion of the country, compared with 15% who say they have a favorable view. In all but five countries, majorities express an unfavorable view of Russia." - opinion of Russia, Pew Research, 2023

Americans view of Russia

Views on russia.png


America has a lot of soft power

See also: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

The political scientist Joseph Nye's 2004 book describing the concept of "soft power".

Nye popularized the concept of soft power through his 1990 book Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power[12]

English is the number one spoken language in the world which is the national language of the United States and its close ally the United Kingdom.[13] And English is widely used in both commerce and in the media in the world.

Soft power is a nation's capacity to cause others to do things through persuasive/non-coercive means. The American political scientist Joseph Nye introduced the concept of "soft power" through his 1990 book Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power.[14]The fact that English is so widely spoken in the world increases America's soft power.

Brand Finance, the world's leading brand valuation consultancy, annually list the countries with the strongest soft power.

In 2024, Brand Finance published the article Brand Finance’s Global Soft Power Index 2024: The USA is Crowned the World’s Soft Power Superpower for the 3rd Consecutive Year[15] In addition, videos of the seminars on Brand Finance’s Global Soft Power Index 2024 are at Global Soft Power Summit 2024 - Global Soft Power Index Report Launch & Introduction.

Brand Finance's 2022 ranking of the 10 countries with the most soft power[16]:

  1. United States
  2. United Kingdom (One of the strongest allies of the United States)
  3. Germany
  4. China
  5. Japan
  6. France
  7. Canada
  8. Switzerland
  9. Russia
  10. Italy

Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse

See also: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse

The flag of Russia

Shortly before the pandemic broke out in 2020 Vladimir Putin stated: "Russia's destiny and its historical prospects depend on one thing: how many of us there are and how many of us there will be."[17]

On January 10, 2024 the Moscow Times reported in their article Russia's Population Could Fall to 130Mln by 2046 – Rosstat:

Russia’s population could drop to 130 million by 2046 due to declining immigration numbers and low birth rates, according to a worst-case projection by Russia’s statistics agency Rosstat, the RBC news website reported.

Rosstat predicts Russia’s population will drop from the current 146.1 million to 138.8 million by 2046 under its most likely scenario, which was released in October.

Rosstat’s latest worst-case scenario anticipates an even deeper population decline of 15.4 million over the next 22 years, which would amount to 700,000 fewer people living in the country each year.

The agency’s best-case scenario envisions an increase of 4.59 million people to 150.87 million by 2046.[18]

According to the Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov the war in Ukraine makes Russia's demographic crisis worse.[19]

Salavat Abylkalikov indicates:

In 2022, Russia's population growth rate was -0.38%. Assuming this rate persists, the population will halve in 184 years (according to Rosstat figures, Russia currently has 146.4 million inhabitants — The Bell). According to the UN's latest projection, Russia's population will be 112.2 million by 2100 under average circumstances.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused life expectancy in Russia to fall by 3.3 years. It quickly began to recover in 2022, rising by 2.7 years. However, the war has disrupted this progress, and life expectancy is now impacted by war-related deaths and stress-induced substance abuse. Lower incomes and worsening access to medication, diagnostics, equipment and treatment are further reducing life expectancy.

The war may also cause a decrease in inward migration, which has previously helped offset Russia's natural population decline. From 1992-2019, the natural loss was 13.8 million people, but inward migration compensated with 9.6 million. Russia could now find itself in a situation where natural and migratory losses reinforce one another...

Shifts in the age structure of the population pose a substantial demographic risk for Russia's economy. The generations born in the 1990s and 2000s, when Russia's birth rate was at its lowest, are now entering the labor market. This will exacerbate the existing crisis due to a lack of young workers. Meanwhile, the post-war generations of the 1950s and 60s are aging and approaching retirement.[20]

Russian demography has long been an existential issue to Vladimir Putin. In 2021, he declared “saving the people of Russia is our top national priority".[21]

The main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis according to the Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov

The Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov says the main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis will be the following:

According to the average version of the UN forecast, Russia's population by 2050 may be about 133.4 million people, which is 14th in the world and below countries such as Egypt, the Philippines, and Mexico. But if Russia goes not according to the average, but according to the low option that is quite likely at the present time, then with a population of 123.2 million people we will drop to 16th place and will already be neighbors with Tanzania and Vietnam. Thus, the price of switching to the low scenario could be -10 million people, as well as a decrease in the place in the top countries in terms of population. Moreover, the low version of the UN forecast did not include too low or even negative migration growth.

A smaller population means a country's lower economic potential, a shrinking domestic market, worsening demographic problems and an aging population, as well as a decrease in the country's geopolitical power. The population size still correlates with the weight in international relations, the ability to promote their interests on the world stage. And the declining population for the largest country in the world may cause some neighbors on the continent, especially the eastern ones, to be tempted to solve their internal growing problems by some external adventures. But will Russia find anyone and how to fight back, will there be allies?[22]

Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

See: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

Other essays on Russia



Map of Russia.

Approximately 7% of Russia's land is arable and suitable for agricultural production.

User:Conservative's essays

References

  1. 1.0 1.1 Why so many Africans are religious: Leo Igwe
  2. London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea by Eric Kaufmann, Huffington Post, 2012
  3. London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea by Eric Kaufmann, Huffington Post, 2012
  4. 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious, Tuesday, April 30, 2013
  5. Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann
  6. Pro-Natal Policies Work, But They Come With a Hefty Price Tag, Institute For Family Studies
  7. Russians Are Not Waiting for a Church Boom, 2019
  8. PERCENTAGE OF ORTHODOX IS DOWN IN RUSSIA, BUT PERCENTAGE OF PRACTICING ORTHODOX IS UP—SURVEY
  9. Religious Belief and National Belonging in Central and Eastern Europe, Pew Research, 2017
  10. attendance at Russian Orthodox church services in Russia has dropped to around one percent.
  11. [1]
  12. Nye, Joseph S. (1990). Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power. Art of Mentoring Series (reprint ed.). Basic Books. ISBN 9780465001774
  13. Ranked: The Top Languages Spoken in the World, Visual Capitalist
  14. Nye, Joseph S. (1990). Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power. Art of Mentoring Series (reprint ed.). Basic Books. ISBN 9780465001774
  15. Brand Finance’s Global Soft Power Index 2024: The USA is Crowned the World’s Soft Power Superpower for the 3rd Consecutive Year
  16. Global Soft Power Index 2022: USA bounces back better to top of nation brand ranking, Brand Finance website, 2022
  17. Putin's demographic failure in Russia, LeMonde, September 29, 2023
  18. Population Could Fall to 130Mln by 2046 – Rosstat, Moscow Times, January 10, 2024
  19. Is Russia dying out? Our interview with a demographer, The Bell website, July 2023
  20. Is Russia dying out? Our interview with a demographer, The Bell website, July 2023
  21. Russia’s population is in a historic decline as emigration, war and a plunging birth rate form a ‘perfect storm’, Fortune magazine, 2022
  22. "Until the end of the century, we will be enough." Demographer Salavat Abylkalikov - about whether Russia is dying and what to do about it, Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov