Essay: Communist China’s quixotic quest to innovate: A statist economy can’t make creativity greatly blossom
See: Middle-income trap
- Compared to the United States, per capita does creativity greatly blossom in China?: "Based on available data and analysis, the United States likely produces more per capita creativity than China, particularly in individualistic and disruptive domains. The U.S. benefits from a culture of free expression, diverse population, and strong ecosystems for innovation (e.g., Silicon Valley, Hollywood), reflected in metrics like patents per capita (0.14 per 1,000 people in 2023) and Nobel Prize wins (~1.2 per million)."
- "The U.S. outperforms China ~3–7x in per capita innovation metrics, leveraging efficiency and quality over volume."[1]
- Does the USA have a better business environment and more investment capital to better leverage technological and scientific innovations than China?: "The U.S. has a more open, capital-rich, and entrepreneur-friendly environment, which makes it better at turning early-stage scientific and technological innovations into scalable global businesses."
Consider:
2025: "The United States’ lead in global innovation further strengthens its structural power. U.S. firms generate over 50 percent of the world’s high-tech profits, whereas China captures only six percent. This innovation edge positions U.S. companies at critical points in supply chains, enabling Washington to twist production networks, as demonstrated by its coordination of multinational semiconductor restrictions on China." - Michael Beckley, Associate Professor of Political Science at Tufts University, See: A long, hard look at America’s strengths and weaknesses as Trump comes in again. Well worth a read.[2]
In 2025, the United States has 4.2% of the world's population and China has 17.3% of the world's population.[3][4] And yet as can be seen above, U.S. firms generate over 50 percent of the world’s high-tech profits, whereas China captures only six percent.
Previously, I wrote the essays below:
This essay is a sequel to the above essays.
Contents
- 1 Why does the U.S. surpass China in innovation?
- 2 Key points about China's innovation challenges
- 3 China’s quixotic quest to innovate: A statist economy can’t foster more creativity/innovation than its more capitalistic rival the USA in its citizens per capita
- 4 What percent stronger is the USA vs. China when it comes to artificial intelligence?
- 5 A more prosperous USA spends a greater portion of its GDP on research and development
- 6 How does China compare with the USA as far as its labor productivity rate? How much does the labor productivity of the USA and China influence their innovation rates?
- 7 Free markets/capitalism vs. a more socialistic economic system like China's. The USA is more innovative and prosperous than China
- 8 China has too many inefficient state-owned enterprises. For privately owned Chinese companies, the marginal productivity of capital is going down
- 9 Growing authoritarian, communist idiocracy in China will choke off creativity and foreign investment directed toward innovation
- 10 Communist China and intellectual property theft
- 11 Atheist, communist-controlled China's aging and shrinking population is going to be less innovative over time (Barring the communist government being replaced by a pro-capitalist government or a widespread religious revival in China)
- 12 Questions related to China's economy
- 13 World's most productive and innovative countries
- 14 China's major economic crisis are signs of major deflationary pressures
- 15 USA vs. China: Innovation and labor productivity per capita
- 16 Other essays about China
- 17 The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
- 18 References
Why does the U.S. surpass China in innovation?
Summary: "The U.S. surpasses China in innovation due to its risk-tolerant culture, robust private-sector R&D ($680B vs. $410B in 2021), top-tier universities, strong IP protections, and ability to attract global talent. While China leads in applied innovation and patent filings (1.5M vs. 600,000 annually), its state-driven system and regulatory constraints limit disruptive creativity compared to the U.S.'s open, flexible ecosystem."
Summary: "The U.S. surpasses China in innovation due to its culture of creativity, risk-taking, and strong IP protections, supported by world-class institutions, flexible market dynamics, and a global talent pool, though China's state-driven investments are closing the gap."
Key points about China's innovation challenges
See also: Atheism and dogmatism and Atheism and intolerance and Atheism and groupthink
China's government is run by the Chinese Communist Party which enforces state atheism (See: China and atheism). See also: Atheism and dogmatism and Atheism and intolerance and Atheism and groupthink
"China's primary issue with innovation lies in its political system, which often discourages risk-taking and independent thought, hindering the development of truly groundbreaking ideas due to factors like heavy government control, a culture of deference to authority, and concerns about intellectual property protection, leading to a reliance on copying existing technologies rather than generating original ones; despite significant investments in research and development, China struggles to translate these efforts into truly innovative products and processes due to systemic barriers."[5]
China’s quixotic quest to innovate: A statist economy can’t foster more creativity/innovation than its more capitalistic rival the USA in its citizens per capita
See also: Innovation and Creativity and Openness
Please read:
- China’s Quixotic Quest to Innovate. A Statist Economy Can’t Foster Creativity, Foreign Affairs, May 29, 2024
- China’s innovation dilemma, Lowry Institute, 2021
To see China's 11th ranking in the Global Innovation Index in 2024, please see: China ranking in the Global Innovation Index 2024. In 2023, the USA ranked #3 in the world in Global Innovation Index and China was ranked 12th, see: World’s innovation leaders, gauging the innovation performance of 132 economies.
According to China Daily, “One significant way Asian cultures differ from Western cultures is that they place group identity over individual identity. This factor limits the ability of Asians to think outside the box. “[6]
The Chinese leader Xi Jinping said about the Chinese economy, "Though our economy has vaulted to second place in the world, it is big and not strong, and its bloatedness and frailty are quite prominent. This is mainly reflected in the lack of strength in innovation ability, which is the ‘Achilles heel’ of this lug of an economy of ours.”[7]
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) article How Culture Gives the US an Innovation Edge Over China indicates:
| “ | Scholars have only recently begun to pay attention to the striking variation in psychology across societies. In his remarkable new book The WEIRDest People in the World, Harvard professor Joseph Henrich notes that people in the West evolved to become particularly individualistic and prosocial beginning in the Middle Ages. According to Henrich, their path to prosperity began with the Roman Catholic Church’s family policies (such as bans on cousin marriage), which inadvertently dissolved kinship institutions and made Europeans increasingly free both relationally and residentially. Released from family obligations, people chose their own friends, spouses, and business partners. That, in turn, opened the door for the emergence of institutions such as voluntary associations, guilds, universities, and charter towns, which expanded social networks and acted as collective brains.
As Western societies scaled up, populations became more diverse and innovative, spurred by psychological developments like greater interpersonal trust, less conformity, and less reliance on authority, which helped facilitate the flow of ideas. Today, Westerners in general, and Anglo-Americans in particular, remain relatively individualistic. Geert Hofstede’s widely recognized measure of individualism, based on questions about the importance of personal ambitions and achievements, confirms this; his work also supports the idea that East Asian societies are more collectivist.[8] |
” |
For more information, please see: United States and innovation
How much harder is it for the middle-income country of China to compete against the high-income country of the USA when it comes to innovation?
- How much harder is it harder for a middle-income country to compete against a high-income country when it comes to innovation? Explain this matter in relation to US vs. China, Grok, October 7, 2025
The difference between creativity and innovation
See also: Creativity
According to Business News Daily:
| “ | Creativity is the spontaneous development of new ideas and out-of-the-box thinking.
Innovation is applied creativity, in which the spark of a new idea is turned into a novel solution or process. Hunter weighs in with his own definition: “Innovation is the implementation or creation of something new that has realized value to others.” Innovation is realized most vividly in the form of a tool, physical benefit or aid that solves a problem or creates an advantage.[9] |
” |
Capitalism incentivizes innovation by making it more profitable for the innovators (See: Relation between Innovation and Capitalism).
What percent stronger is the USA vs. China when it comes to artificial intelligence?
What percent stronger is the USA than China when it comes to artificial intelligence and why?, Grok 10-8, 2025
Summary statement: "The United States is approximately 20-30% stronger than China in artificial intelligence, driven by superior private investment (~11x higher), compute access (2-3x advantage), and high-impact research, though China's rapid catch-up in model quality, patent volume, and talent production narrows the gap."
A more prosperous USA spends a greater portion of its GDP on research and development
The figures below come from this source: List of sovereign states by research and development spending
- China spent 2.43% of its GDP on research and development in 2021.
- The United States spent 3.46% of its GDP on research and development in 2021.
USA Stargate artificial intelligence project
- Stargate: America’s $500 Billion Bid To Corner Global AI Capital, Forbes 2025
- What to Know About ‘Stargate,’ OpenAI’s New Venture Announced by President Trump, Time magazine, 2025
USA, energy and the future of AI (AI requires a lot of energy):
- Trump Touts Coal as an Answer to AI Power Needs
- Google turns to nuclear to power AI data centres, BBC, 2024
- America’s AI Leadership Depends on Energy, Foreign Policy, 2024
How does China compare with the USA as far as its labor productivity rate? How much does the labor productivity of the USA and China influence their innovation rates?
Summary: "In summary, US productivity strongly enables sustained, high-quality innovation (correlation ~0.7-0.8 in econometric models). China's productivity moderately supports volume-based innovation (correlation ~0.4-0.5), but lags in translating it back to efficiency—potentially a "high-tech, low-productivity trap" if unaddressed. Future convergence could see China matching US innovation depth by 2030 if productivity reforms succeed."
If China raised its labor productivity rate, would it be able to easier raise its innovation rate?
Summary:
"Raising China's labor productivity could facilitate higher innovation rates, as the two are interconnected. Productivity gains—through efficiency, skills, and capital—free up resources for R&D, skilled workers, and economic surplus to support riskier innovations. In China's context, past surges (e.g., 12% annual growth from 2000–2011) have enabled wage rises and shifts toward tech-driven growth in areas like EVs and AI. Policies like "new quality productive forces" highlight this link, though challenges such as slowing productivity and state-heavy approaches persist. Ultimately, stronger productivity provides the foundation to ease innovation advances."
Free markets/capitalism vs. a more socialistic economic system like China's. The USA is more innovative and prosperous than China
The idea of "let the market, not government, pick winners and losers" is a free market principle that advocates for prices and transactions to be determined by supply and demand, not government intervention. While the USA is not perfectly capitalistic (A significant amount of government healthcare, Green New Deal policies under Bidenomics, etc.), it does have more of a free market, capitalistic country country than China which is run by the Chinese Communist Party.
The essays below show that a more free market and capitalist country is more productive and prosperous:
Video playlist on why capitalism and free markets are better than socialism/communism
- Capitalism works and is the best system - video playlist
China has too many inefficient state-owned enterprises. For privately owned Chinese companies, the marginal productivity of capital is going down
China has too many inefficient state-owned enterprises. For privately owned Chinese companies, the marginal productivity of capital is going down.[13]
On September 9, 2025, the Center for Strategic & International Studies noted:
| “ | One of my favorite statistics which I like to follow regards the productivity of capital, and it’s basically how much output do you get per investment of capital. And so the marginal productivity of capital of China keeps going down. I think if you look at this through the incremental capital output ratio, you’ll see similar types of things. If we had the total factor productivity number, you’d see a similar challenge as well.
One of the things that really worries me is that for a long time private companies were doing better than state-owned companies. They would have a better return on their assets, higher profitability, and that was always a sign that China was heading in the right direction. Well, they’re now doing as poorly as their state-owned cousins. And so that’s a concern for me and some of the things that I saw this summer.[14] |
” |
Growing authoritarian, communist idiocracy in China will choke off creativity and foreign investment directed toward innovation
See: China and atheism and Atheism and communism
See also: The rising rule of communist idiocracy in China and What drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin? and Innovation
In my essay at High income countries are rarely authoritarian countries in our technological age driven by innovation, I point out various factors which causes innovation to be less in authoritarian countries.
Question: Is China under Xi Jinping, who has a cult of personality, becoming more authoritarian? Unfortunately, as can be seen below, China is becoming more authoritarian.
In 2023, Professor Minxin Pei, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, wrote about China's dysfunctional government:
| “ | The bigger problem is that President Xi Jinping and his lieutenants still haven’t figured out how to dispel gloomy sentiments among Chinese entrepreneurs and foreign investors. The government’s crackdown on the tech sector and mistreatment of iconic executives such as Alibaba founder Jack Ma and real estate tycoon Ren Zhiqiang have instilled deep fears among private-sector businessmen. Many have emigrated abroad along with their wealth. A record 13,500 high-net-worth individuals are expected to leave China for safer shores this year.
If Xi can’t reverse this trend, the loss of confidence in his leadership among private entrepreneurs will depress investment and job creation. The share of private capital in China’s total investment in 2022, for example, fell to roughly 54% , the lowest in a decade. The government can’t tackle this problem because it is the problem. In the past decade, there’s been a fundamental shift in the survival strategy and governance structure of the ruling Chinese Communist Party. The regime has prioritized political control over economic development and systematically shifted resources from the private sector to state-owned firms, mainly through industrial policy programs such as Made in China 2025.[16] |
” |
On October 30, 2023, The Guardian reported: "But by all accounts, the number of uber-wealthy people in China is in decline. Of the world’s estimated 2,640 billionaires, at least 562 are thought to be in China, according to Forbes, down from 607 last year.[17]
Videos and articles:
- The Japanification of China due to Xi Jinping, China is slipping from motion to stagnation, raising questions if it can escape the same contradictions that doomed the Soviet Union, Asia Times, 2023
- China on brink: Xi's new power plot and single-man crisis sends economy into freefall, Express, 9-24-2022
- Xi Jinping is not concerned with the growth of the Chinese economy, says China expert Matt Pottinger
- Xi Jinping In Major Line Of Fire As China's Economy Slowing Down, And Major Sectors Are Collapsing, India Today, September 2023
Communist China and intellectual property theft
See also: Atheism and stealing
Intellectual property (IP) is knowledge that can be owned. Examples include copyrights, patents, trademarks and trade secrets.
According to the website China Law Blog:
| “ | The disappearance of Made in China 2025. From 2015 to 2017, the Chinese government touted its Made in China 2025 program as its core policy for development of the Chinese economy. Due to pressure from the U.S., Europe and Japan, public discussion of the program has virtually ceased. Foreign opposition to this program has been based on the following two factors:
...The advances in technical expertise outlined in the program do not rely on Chinese domestic innovation. Rather, the program relies on forced technology transfer and IP theft.[18] |
” |
The American Enterprise Institute reported in 2018: "In reports from 2013 and 2017 the independent Commission on the Theft of American Intellectual Property concluded that China was the chief culprit in the loss of between $250 and $600 billion annually from IP theft (patents, copyrights, trademarks, and trade secrets)."[19]
Bloomberg News declared concerning China and intellectual property theft: "A 2017 survey by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China found that 'visible progress' had been made around IP, but 51 percent of firms said enforcement was still inadequate."[20]
Atheist, communist-controlled China's aging and shrinking population is going to be less innovative over time (Barring the communist government being replaced by a pro-capitalist government or a widespread religious revival in China)
See also: Atheism and fertility rates
Young scientists are more innovative
- Younger Scientists Are More Innovative, Study Finds, The Scientists, 2022
Younger scientists in biomedicine are more innovative:
- Age and the Trying Out of New Ideas, Journal of Human Capital, 2019 Summer; 13(2): 341–373. doi: 10.1086/703160
China's one-child policy
The One-child Policy, known also as the Family Planning Policy, was a policy in Communist China, initiated in 1979, that prohibited any family in urban China from having more than one child. The policy did not apply to rural families. It was an attempt by the government to limit China's population and was often broken by citizens who can afford to pay the fines.
Since 2013 the government eased the One-child Policy strongly. Since then families in which at least one parent was an only child can have a second child now.[21] The One-child Policy was eventually scrapped and replaced with a Two-Child Policy on October 29, 2015 which then took effect on January 1, 2016. On May 31, 2021, it was announced that married couples will be allowed to have up to three children to deal with an aging population while giving financial support for families, but next month on June 18, China decided to end all childbirth restrictions by 2025.[22]
China has state atheism. Atheists have subreplacement levels of births. China has a subreplacement level of births. Atheists and lower levels of openmindedness
See also: China and atheism and Atheism and fertility rates
China has the world's largest atheist population and practices state atheism.[24][25] China has one of the highest rates of atheism in the world.[24][25] According to a 2012 Worldwide Independent Network/Gallup International Association (WIN/GIA) poll, 47% of Chinese people were convinced atheists, and a further 30% were not religious. In comparison, only 14% considered themselves to be religious.[26]
Atheists have below the replacement level of births (See: Atheism and fertility rates). According to Forbes magazine, as far as the fertility rate of China: "...the Total Fertility Rate (births per woman) dropped in 2021 to just 1.15, far below the 2.1 required for a stable population."[27] In 2022, the historian Niall Ferguson indicated that China's population is projected to drop by 50-75% by the end of the century due to its subreplacement level of fertility.[28] See also: East Asia and global desecularization and Atheism and fertility rates
CNBC reported in 2015: "36 percent of the world's population over 65 currently live in East Asia. That's 211 million people and it is projected to rise over time."[29]
Atheists and dogmatism and lower levels of open-mindedness
See also: Atheism and dogmatism and Atheism and open-mindedness and Atheism and groupthink
The personality trait of openness is important to one's level of creativity.[30] Creativity is a necessary component of innovation.
Concerning atheism and open-mindedness, The Independent reported in an article entitled Atheists are less open-minded than religious people, study claims:
| “ | Religious people are more tolerant of different viewpoints than atheists, according to researchers at a Catholic university.
A study of 788 people in the UK, France and Spain concluded that atheists and agnostics think of themselves as more open-minded than those with faith, but are are actually less tolerant to differing opinions and ideas. Religious believers "seem to better perceive and integrate diverging perspectives", according to psychology researchers at the private Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Belgium's largest French-speaking university. Filip Uzarevic, who co-wrote the paper, said his message was that "closed-mindedness is not necessarily found only among the religious".[31] |
” |
PsyPost indicates:
| “ | New research indicates that religious believers can be better at perceiving and integrating different perspectives than atheists in Western Europe.
“The main message of the study is that closed-mindedness is not necessarily found only among the religious,” the study’s corresponding author, Filip Uzarevic of the Catholic University of Louvain, told PsyPost. The research was published April 27, 2017, in the peer-reviewed journal Personality and Individual Differences. Atheists tended to show greater intolerance of contradiction, meaning when they were presented with two seemingly contradictory statements they rated one as very true and the other as very false. They also showed less propensity to be able to imagine arguments contrary to their own position and find them somewhat convincing.[32] |
” |
The abstract for the 2017 journal article Are atheists undogmatic? published in the journal Personality and Individual Differences states:
- "Previous theory and evidence favor the idea that religious people tend to be dogmatic to some extent whereas non-religious people are undogmatic: the former firmly hold beliefs, some of which are implausible or even contrary to the real world evidence. We conducted a further critical investigation of this idea, distinguishing three aspects of rigidity: (1) self-reported dogmatism, defined as unjustified certainty vs. not standing for any beliefs, (2) intolerance of contradiction, measured through (low) endorsement of contradictory statements, and (3) low readiness to take a different from one's own perspective, measured through the myside bias technique. Non-believers, at least in Western countries where irreligion has become normative, should be lower on the first, but higher on the other two constructs. Data collected from three countries (UK, France, and Spain, total N = 788) and comparisons between Christians, atheists, and agnostics confirmed the expectations, with agnostics being overall similar to atheists."[33]
A majority of the world's atheists are East Asians (see: Asian atheism). The journal article Deviance or Uniqueness, Harmony or Conformity? A Cultural Analysis published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology indicates: "In many East Asian cultural contexts, there is an abiding fear of being on one's own, of being separated or disconnected from the group; a desire for independence is cast as unnatural and immature (Markus & Kitayama, 1994)."[34] China, which has state atheism, is well-known for having a repressive regime that does not tolerate deviance from the ideology of the Chinese Communist Party.
Questions related to China's economy:
1. How is China's general economy? See: Essay: It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy
2. Is the USA reindustrializing? If so, what are its prospects in this regard? How fast is the USA expected to reindustrialize?, Grok, September 2024
3. Does the USA reindustrialization make it harder for China to sell its goods to Americans?
4. What is the probability that China will escape the middle-income trap?, 2025: Summary: "Synthesizing these, the probability that China fully escapes the middle-income trap—crossing to high-income status and maintaining above-4% per capita growth through 2035—is roughly 40–60%."
5. Is India economically growing? Is India giving China more and more competition? If India is economically growing and becoming a stronger economic competitor, does this make it harder for China to escape the middle-income trap? If so, percentage-wise, how much does it decrease the odds of China escaping the middle-income trap?: Summary: India’s growth indirectly complicates China’s escape by diverting investment and market share, potentially reducing China’s odds of reaching high-income status by an estimated 10-20%."
6. If China does not escape the middle-income trap, will that make innovation easier or harder for China? If easier, why?
7. How important are services when it comes to an economy escaping the middle-income trap?, 2025
8. Is it true that innovation in one sector of the economy, such as from the services sector, can cross-pollinate into other sectors of the economy? If not, why not?
9. Are economies that are well-diversified more resilient and do they have more opportunities for the aforementioned cross-pollination? If not, why not? See: Essay: Diversified economies, resilience and stability
10. What are China's biggest challenges when it comes to diversifying its economy via developing its service economy? What is the probability that China will overcome these challenges? Consider Xi Jinping's leadership, his chances of being replaced and China's economic challenges.: Summary: "China faces formidable challenges in diversifying its economy through the service sector, including overreliance on manufacturing, a real estate crisis, weak consumption, regulatory hurdles, demographic constraints, and political resistance to reforms. The probability of overcoming these challenges in the next 5–10 years is 30–40%, contingent on significant policy shifts toward consumption-driven growth and market liberalization, which are currently misaligned with Xi’s priorities."
12. How much does protectionism rising in the world affect China's economy?
World's most productive and innovative countries
Most innovative countries
United States in comparison to other countries in the world as far as labor productivity
See also: America’s Labor Productivity Sets it Apart, TD Bank April 2024
According the Yahoo Finance: "According to Yahoo Finance: "Efficiency in production, also coined as productivity, is one of the major driving forces behind economic resilience in a country... The United States has one of the strongest economies in the world. The country hosts some of the largest companies in the world, which contributes to the high GDP per capita in the country."[40]
As can be seen in the map above, the USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world.[41]
USA's Nonfarm labor productivity 1947 to 2024
China's major economic crisis are signs of major deflationary pressures
*Japan's Recession Was Bad. China's Will Be So Much Worse.
For more information, please see: Skepticism about China remaining a global power
See also: It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy
According to Investopedia, "Deflation is not normally bad for an economy, except when it occurs in reaction to previous over-inflation."[43] Unfortunately for China, it has economic bubbles that are bursting in relation to its real estate and stock markets which is causing much economic hardship to many Chinese. Both of these markets had values that were highly inflated relative to their actual economic value. The Empower website notes that deflation "can lead consumers to spend less now, in part because they expect prices to continue to fall; it can push businesses to lower wages or lay off employees to maintain profit levels; and it makes existing debt more expensive for many borrowers.[44]
Please read: China’s Deflationary Spiral Is Now Entering Dangerous New Stage, Bloomberg UK, September 9, 2024
Presently, communist China is facing multiple crisis with the three major crisis below being signs of growing deflationary pressures on their economy:
- Chinese stock markets crisis (Since 2021, China’s stock markets have lost about $7 trillion in value.[45])
When will China's overall economic decline become apparent and China will no longer be able to conceal it?
- When will China's overall economic decline become apparent and China will no longer be able to conceal it?, Grok September 2025: "In essence, while China can continue masking aspects through data control and stimulus, the compounding effects of internal weaknesses and global pressures will likely make the overall decline starkly evident by 2028-2030, echoing Japan's "lost decades" but on a larger scale."
It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy
Please read: It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy
China's economy is facing a number of serious challenges, including:
- Deflation in China (July 2023 to present)]. China is going through a sustained period of deflation (See: Deflation in China (July 2023 to present)).
- Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present): A real estate crisis has left developers in ruins, with unsold apartments, failed investments, and huge debts. The property crisis has also affected consumer confidence and local governments' ability to generate funds.
- Youth unemployment in China and general unemployment in China: Unemployment is rising, with the urban youth unemployment rate reaching 17.1% in July 2024. See: Youth unemployment in China
- Slowing growth: China's economy is slowing down, with GDP growth falling behind the government's target. Measures of consumption, factory output, and investment have all slowed more than expected. China has too many inefficient state-owned enterprises. For privately owned Chinese companies, the marginal productivity of capital is going down.[46]
- China's Massive Debt: China's debt hangover is a result of years of inefficient stimulus spending. "Since 2021, the debt-to-GDP has climbed by almost 30 percentage points to 310% of GDP in the second quarter of 2024 — and is set to climb further to 312% by the end of this year, according to Morgan Stanley." (China Economy: China’s local government debt problems are a hidden drag on economic growth, 2024).
- Consumer confidence: Consumer confidence is sagging, with consumers becoming more frugal.
- Aging population: China's population is aging rapidly. See: China's demographic crisis - video playlist
- Protectionism - De-risking/De-coupling: Foreign investment is being withdrawn, and companies are diversifying their supply chains away from China. President Xi Jinping has provoked a protectionist response from the United States and other countries.
What are the odds that China will suffer Japanification
See also: Japanification
Japanification is a term used to describe a country's economic stagnation, or the process of becoming similar to Japan's economy.
Article:
- What are the odds that China will suffer Japanification, AI, 9-7-2025
USA vs. China: Innovation and labor productivity per capita
Per capita USA is more innovative than China, but China has more people so total innovative output is higher. But China's economy and demographics are in SAD SHAPE so its economy will crash and burn in about a decade. Also, in terms of labor productivity per capita and GNP per capita, the USA still leads China! USA! USA! USA!
See:
- It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy
- The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
- Why the USA's per capita income is MUCH higher than China's
- The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia
- High income countries are rarely authoritarian countries in our technological age driven by innovation
Life is a marathon and not a sprint. See: Slow and steady growth over the long term via capitalism and the rule of law versus short-sighted authoritarian economic growth that is costly to the long term economy and How long will the American civilization last? Strong reasons it could be a very long time
Other essays about China
The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
See: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
See: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
References
- ↑ How does it compare with the usa in terms of per capita innovation?
- ↑ The Strange Triumph of a Broken America by Michael Beckley, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2025, Published on January 7, 2025
- ↑ What percent of the world population does the United States have?
- ↑ What percent of the world population does China have?
- ↑ China's problem with innovation, Google search on 1-27-2025
- ↑ Group over individual
- ↑ Lack of innovation is 'Achilles heel' for China's economy, Xi says, Reuters, 2019
- ↑ How Culture Gives the US an Innovation Edge Over China, MIT, 2021
- ↑ Creativity Is Not Innovation (But You Need Both), Business News Daily, 2024
- ↑ The Human Body: God's Masterpiece
- ↑ The Enigmatic Human Brain by Wallace G. Smith
- ↑ The Most Complex Structure, Creation Moments
- ↑ Economy: How Bad Is It?. Center for Strategic & International Studies, September 9, 2025
- ↑ Economy: How Bad Is It?. Center for Strategic & International Studies, September 9, 2025
- ↑ China’s Communist Party Reaffirms Marxism, Maoism, Atheism, New American, 2014
- ↑ China’s Economy Is OK. The Problem Is Its Politics by Minxin Pei (Professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, Bloomberg News, 2023
- ↑ China’s billionaires looking to move their cash, and themselves, out, The Guardian, 2023
- ↑ The Top Ten Issues for China’s Economy by Steve Dickinson on December 27, 2018, China Law Blog
- ↑ Chinese intellectual property theft: Time for show trials (but get our story straight) by Claude Barfield, August 27, 2018, AEIdeas
- ↑ [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-05/what-s-intellectual-property-and-does-china-steal-it-quicktake What Is Intellectual Property, and Does China Steal It? By Grant Clark, December 4, 2018, Bloomberg News
- ↑ http://cnsnews.com/news/article/china-ease-1-child-policy-abolish-labor-camps
- ↑ https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-plans-further-shift-toward-encouraging-childbirth-11624003448
- ↑
- Top 50 Countries With Highest Proportion of Atheists / Agnostics (Zuckerman, 2005)
- A surprising map of where the world’s atheists live, Washington Post By Max Fisher and Caitlin Dewey May 23, 2013
- ↑ 24.0 24.1 Top 50 Countries With Highest Proportion of Atheists / Agnostics (Zuckerman, 2005)
- ↑ 25.0 25.1 A surprising map of where the world’s atheists live, Washington Post By Max Fisher and Caitlin Dewey May 23, 2013
- ↑ "Global Index of Religiosity and Atheism", Gallup. Retrieved on 2012-11-28.
- ↑ China’s Demographics: It Gets Worse, Forbes magazine, Oct 12, 2022
- ↑ Niall Ferguson on the projected drop of China's population in the 21st century
- ↑ Here's why East Asia could be in big trouble, CNBC
- ↑ Openness to experience, plasticity, and creativity: Exploring lower-order, high-order, and interactive effects, Journal of Research in Personality, Volume 43, Issue 6, December 2009, Pages 1087-1090
- ↑ Atheists are less open-minded than religious people, study claims, The Independent, 2017
- ↑ Study finds the nonreligious can be more close-minded than the religious By ERIC W. DOLAN, PsyPost June 23, 2017
- ↑ Are atheists undogmatic?, Personality and Individual Differences, Filip Uzarevica, Vassilis Sarogloua, Magali Clobert, Volume 116, 1 October 2017, Pages 164-170
- ↑ Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1999. Vol. 77, No. 4, 785-800
- ↑ The U.S. Is (Again) Among the World's Top Innovators, U.S. News and World Report, 2023
- ↑ Global Innovation Index 2023: Switzerland, Sweden and the U.S. lead the Global Innovation Ranking; Innovation Robust but Startup Funding Increasingly Uncertain
- ↑ World's Most Innovative Countries, Statista website, 2023
- ↑ Ranked: The Most Innovative Countries in 2023
- ↑ Labor Productivity: What It Is, How to Calculate & Improve It, Investopedia
- ↑ 25 Most Productive Countries Per Capita, Yahoo Finance
- ↑ Most Productive Countries 2024
- ↑ USA Nonfarm labor productivity 1947 to 2024
- ↑ Why Is Deflation Bad for the Economy?, Investopedia
- ↑ What is deflation?, Empower website
- ↑ What’s going on with China’s stock market?, MarketPlace.org
- ↑ Economy: How Bad Is It?. Center for Strategic & International Studies, September 9, 2025

