Essay: February 2022 might prove to be a pivotal moment in the future of global politics

From Conservapedia
Jump to: navigation, search

In my essays on the war in Ukraine below, I state why the corrupt authoritarian Vladimir Putin's special military operation in February of 2022 turned out to be a miscalculation by Putin that turned into a runaway train of destruction that has adversely affected Ukraine, the world and Russia.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, on October 13, 2023 stated: "The war in Ukraine compounded by last week’s attacks on Israel may have far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade, and geopolitical relationships…This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.[1]

Question: Are historical figures and the leaders of countries more influential than socioeconomic factors and technological factors when it comes to influencing history? In short, how much influence on history did Putin's miscalculation have on history?

The French historian Fernand Braudel was the most prominent member of the Annales School. Braudel's scholarship was centered on three main projects: The Mediterranean (1923–49, then 1949–66), Civilization and Capitalism (1955–79), and the unfinished Identity of France (1970–85). He was a member of the Annales School of French historiography and social history in the 1950s and 1960s. Braudel emphasized the role that large-scale socioeconomic factors have in the making of history.[2] He can also be considered one of the precursors of world-systems theory.[3]

  • Annales school of history: "Annales school, School of history. Established by Lucien Febvre (1878–1956) and Marc Bloch (1886–1944), its roots were in the journal Annales: économies, sociétés, civilisations, Febvre’s reconstituted version of a journal he had earlier formed with Marc Bloch. Under Fernand Braudel’s direction the Annales school promoted a new form of history, replacing the study of leaders with the lives of ordinary people and replacing examination of politics, diplomacy, and wars with inquiries into climate, demography, agriculture, commerce, technology, transportation, and communication, as well as social groups and mentalities. While aiming at a “total history,” it also yielded dazzling microstudies of villages and regions. Its international influence on historiography has been enormous."

The Amazon description of the book The Exponential Age: How Accelerating Technology is Transforming Business, Politics and Society:

“ A bold exploration and call-to-arms over the widening gap between AI, automation, and big data—and our ability to deal with its effects

We are living in the first exponential age.

High-tech innovations are created at dazzling speeds; technological forces we barely understand remake our homes and workplaces; centuries-old tenets of politics and economics are upturned by new technologies. It all points to a world that is getting faster at a dizzying pace.

Azeem Azhar, renowned technology analyst and host of the Exponential View podcast, offers a revelatory new model for understanding how technology is evolving so fast, and why it fundamentally alters the world. He roots his analysis in the idea of an “exponential gap” in which technological developments rapidly outpace our society’s ability to catch up. Azhar shows that this divide explains many problems of our time—from political polarization to ballooning inequality to unchecked corporate power. With stunning clarity of vision, he delves into how the exponential gap is a near-inevitable consequence of the rise of AI, automation, and other exponential technologies, like renewable energy, 3D printing, and synthetic biology, which loom over the horizon.

And he offers a set of policy solutions that can prevent the growing exponential gap from fragmenting, weakening, or even destroying our societies. The result is a wholly new way to think about technology, one that will transform our understanding of the economy, politics, and the future.[4]

”
Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom and Singapore are the world’s most innovative economies in 2023, according to WIPO’s Global Innovation Index (GII), as a group of middle-income economies have emerged over the past decade as the fastest climbers of the ranking.[5][6][7]

Consider:

1. Ukraine is a cleft country. A cleft country is a nation with a fairly large and distinct cultural groupings as to have separated (e.g., Czechoslovakia or Yugoslavia), semi-separated (e.g., Sudan, Tanzania), or have a threat of separatism (e.g., Canada).[8] Cleft countries are often powderkegs that start wars and other conflicts.

2. China was headed for decline before the war in Ukraine due to socioeconomic factors. See: Skepticism about China remaining a global power

3. Russia was headed for decline before the war in Ukraine due to socioeconomic factors. See: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

4. The United States was leading power in the world before the war in Ukraine and the United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future due to socioeconomic factors.

5. The United States is a leader in technology and innovation and this is largely due to socioeconomic factors. See: United States and innovation

The USA has many innovative people per capita (See: USA still patent Superpower – But China is catching up fast, 2020). The USA is one of the largest markets of the world and U.S. inventors receive nearly half of U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) patents.[9]

Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom and Singapore are the world’s most innovative economies in 2023, according to WIPO’s Global Innovation Index (GII), as a group of middle-income economies have emerged over the past decade as the fastest climbers of the ranking.[10][11][12]

On September 27, 2023, Yahoo Finance reported in their news article about the U.S. economy and artificial intelligence (AI): Those ‘bullish indicators’ include the opportunities remaining for those yet to reap the benefits of AI, a ‘renaissance’ for US manufacturing: "Those ‘bullish indicators’ include the opportunities remaining for those yet to reap the benefits of AI, a ‘renaissance’ for US manufacturing...".[13] According to Goldman Sachs, generative AI could increase global GDP by 7%.[14]

Russia's President Vladimir Putin, a frequent critic of the United States, admitted about American's openness, open-mindedness and creativity: "I like the creativity. Creativity when it comes to tackling your country's problems. They're openness. Openness and open-mindedness. Because it allows them to unleash the inner potential of their people. And because of that America has achieved such amazing results."[15]

Given the above, Putin's miscalculation as far as launching his special military operation in February of 2020 certainly could be far less influential than various socioeconomic factors at the time and various socioeconomic trends.

War in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin is a corrupt authoritarian and a big miscalculator. He is not a chessmaster of global politics

Vladimir Putin at a conference.

Russia

The flag of Russia

Essays on the United States

The flag of the United States

Why BRICS is overrated in its significance and why we don't live in a multipolar world

BRICS:

The myth of a multipolar world:

China:



BRICS’ New Development Bank headquarters in Shanghai, China.

China's skyscraper boom is officially over.[16]

China has likely peaked and economic trouble is heading its way. See: China has likely peaked arguments

International politics essays

User:Conservative's essays

References

  1. ↑ JPMorgan Chase & Co. New Release, October 13, 2023
  2. ↑ i.e. Fernand Braudel, "The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II" (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1996)
  3. ↑ Caves, R. W. (2004). Encyclopedia of the City. Routledge, 54. 
  4. ↑ [https://www.amazon.com/Exponential-Age-Accelerating-Technology-Transforming/dp/1635769094 The Exponential Age: How Accelerating Technology is Transforming Business, Politics and Society
  5. ↑ The U.S. Is (Again) Among the World's Top Innovators, U.S. News and World Report, 2023
  6. ↑ Global Innovation Index 2023: Switzerland, Sweden and the U.S. lead the Global Innovation Ranking; Innovation Robust but Startup Funding Increasingly Uncertain
  7. ↑ World's Most Innovative Countries, Statista website, 2023
  8. ↑ Citizendium
  9. ↑ The State of U.S. Science and Engineering 2020
  10. ↑ The U.S. Is (Again) Among the World's Top Innovators, U.S. News and World Report, 2023
  11. ↑ Global Innovation Index 2023: Switzerland, Sweden and the U.S. lead the Global Innovation Ranking; Innovation Robust but Startup Funding Increasingly Uncertain
  12. ↑ World's Most Innovative Countries, Statista website, 2023
  13. ↑ Those ‘bullish indicators’ include the opportunities remaining for those yet to reap the benefits of AI, a ‘renaissance’ for US manufacturing, Yahoo Finance, September 27, 2023
  14. ↑ Generative AI could increase global GDP by 7%, Goldman Sachs
  15. ↑ Preview: Vladimir Putin reveals what he admires about America, CBS News, 2016
  16. ↑ China's skyscraper boom is over
Retrieved from "https://conservapedia.com/index.php?title=Essay:_February_2022_might_prove_to_be_a_pivotal_moment_in_the_future_of_global_politics&oldid=2170513"