Essay: How long will the war in Ukraine last and what will its likely outcomes will be? A prediction on its outcomes

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Below is a forecast with scenarios/probabilities and other relevant data focusing on the Russo-Ukraine War.

October 2025 analysis: The richer side usually wins

From 1500 to the present, in great power conflicts, in 75% of the cases the richer side wins.[1] Europe, which supports Ukraine, has 10 times the GDP of Russia.[2]



October 2025: Russia-Ukraine War scenarios and their probabilities.[3]


In his March 2022 interview with The New Yorker, Professor John Mearsheimer indicated:

“ I’m talking about the raw-power potential of Russia—the amount of economic might it has. Military might is built on economic might. You need an economic foundation to build a really powerful military. To go out and conquer countries like Ukraine and the Baltic states and to re-create the former Soviet Union or re-create the former Soviet Empire in Eastern Europe would require a massive army, and that would require an economic foundation that contemporary Russia does not come close to having. There is no reason to fear that Russia is going to be a regional hegemony in Europe. Russia is not a serious threat to the United States. We do face a serious threat in the international system. We face a peer competitor. And that’s China. Our policy in Eastern Europe is undermining our ability to deal with the most dangerous threat that we face today.[4] ”

In 2014, Mearsheimer said: "Russia is a declining power, and it will only get weaker with time."[5]

In a 2023 interview, John Mearsheimer said Russia was a "weak great power" (See: Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer, 16:09 in the interview). Russia had great difficulty gaining land from the country of Ukraine which has a much smaller population due to Russia's weak military (see: Russian military weaknesses).

Looking at US/EU/Ukraine/West/NATO relations vs. USA/Russia relations. Weighing them in the balance

US/EU/Ukraine/West/NATO relations vs. USA/Russia relations. Weighing them in the balance:

Consider:

Given that Russia has a much bigger population and that good Russia-USA relations could potentially thwart the Russia/China partnership, how valid is the argument that Russian-American relations is more important to the USA Than USA/Ukraine relations? Also, consider the importance of USA trade to the EU and the EU is pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia in many ways. Also, consider that the USA is culturally more close to Europe and has more ethnic ties to Europe. Also, consider that Ukraine is more Western than Russia and the economic and political alliances that the USA has with the West. Also, consider that the USA is a member of NATO. Also, consider that Russia is a nuclear power with the biggest nuclear missile stockpile. Also, consider the history of Russia-USA relations, the strategic interests of the USA/Russia, the current cultural differences between the USA and Russia and the extent and probability that the USA could improve USA-Russia relations. Attempt to weigh the importance of each variable mentioned using a scale from 1 to 100 where 100 is the utmost importance.

Added explanation of the above link: I also looked that issue from a: systems thinking perspective, multidisciplinary perspective, thinking in bets perspective (expected values approach), long-term and trends perspective, and SWOT analysis approach

Summary:

"The argument that Russian-American relations are more important than USA-Ukraine relations has merit due to Russia’s nuclear arsenal (90/100) and potential to disrupt the Russia-China partnership (85/100). However, USA-Ukraine relations are more critical due to U.S. commitments to NATO (90/100), Western alliances (95/100), U.S.-EU trade (90/100), Ukraine’s Western orientation (80/100), and cultural ties to Europe (70/100). Low feasibility of improving U.S.-Russia relations (50/100) and cultural misalignment (65/100) further prioritize Ukraine. Conclusion: USA-Ukraine relations outweigh Russian-American relations due to stronger strategic, economic, and cultural alignment with U.S. interests."

US/EU/Ukraine/West/NATO relations vs. USA/Russia relations. Weighing them in the balance[1]


Conclusion: US/EU/Ukraine/West/NATO relations vs. USA/Russia relations has been weighed in the balance and Russia comes up wanting!

In the Russo-Ukraine War are there any decision making models which support the USA taking Russia's side. If so, explain their rationale. Please provide the counter arguments to these decision making models which support the USA taking Russia's side. Explain their rationale

2030 and 2050 Forecast: USA/West power relative to other major powers

October 20, 2025: How accurate have the realist John Mearsheimer's predictions been as far as the war in Ukraine?

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra

Professor John Mearsheimer, is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of international relations and teaches at the University of Chicago.

Grok

Grok's overall assessment:

"Overall Assessment: Mearsheimer’s predictions are strongest on structural outcomes (Western policies escalating conflict, Ukraine’s devastation, no NATO membership, stalled peace) but weaker on specifics (invasion likelihood, Russian intent, Ukrainian resilience). Of 15 predictions, ~8 are accurate or partially so, particularly on military attrition and failed negotiations, but ~7 misjudge Russia’s ambitions, Ukraine’s capabilities, or invasion timing. Supporters praise his foresight on escalation risks; critics argue he oversimplifies Russia’s imperialism and ignores non-structural factors like Ukrainian agency or Putin’s ideology. His offensive realism captures great-power tensions but struggles with domestic politics and human motives."

ChatGPT

ChatGPT's bottom line summary: "Mearsheimer’s record on Ukraine is roughly half-right—strong on predicting the existence and character of the war, weak on the motives and outcomes."

Yogi Berra

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra

2023 Analysis of the Russo-Ukraine War

John Mearsheimer

As noted above, Professor John Mearsheimer, is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of international relations and teaches at the University of Chicago.

Mearsheimer predicted the war in Ukraine many years before it happened and he was one of the few scholars who did predict the war (See: Exclusive Interview John Mearsheimer, Man Who Predicted Russia Ukraine War)

In December 2023, Mearsheimer indicated that he believes that the war in Ukraine may turn into a frozen conflict within a year.[6] Given the unpredictability of wars, Mearsheimer has some intellectual humility and points out it's hard to predict.

Mearsheimer believes that the war in Ukraine may end in a frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for (See: Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer). He also indicates that if such a frozen conflict were to happen it would be difficult to maintain and there could be flare-ups.[7]

On August 23, 2023, Axios reported: "There are growing concerns in Kyiv and among U.S. allies in Europe that more and more Republicans on Capitol Hill will oppose aid to Ukraine as the 2024 election draws closer — potentially jeopardizing efforts to repel Russia's invasion there."[8] By November of 2023, after a failed Spring offensive by Ukraine, a Ukrainian top aide was slamming the West over their war fatigue.[9] In December 2023, the U.S. Congress failed to pass Ukraine aid because they insisted the Biden Administration agree to legislation that secured the USA's southern border which the Biden Administration failed to do. It is expected that the GOP will likely hang tough and so the Democrats will eventually have to move much closer to the Republican position on the USA's border crisis.[10]

A Japan Times article published on November 6, 2023 entitled 'We're losing': Ukrainians reel from war chief's stalemate warning:

“ In eastern Ukraine, where another grueling winter is descending — along with it a likely freeze in major frontline movements — one Ukrainian soldier had a grim assessment of the conflict.

The 35-year-old fighting near the war-battered town of Bakhmut went further than comments from Ukraine's most senior military official, who conceded this week that the war with Russia had reached a stalemate.

"I've been saying that for some time now already. Step by step we're losing the war," said the serviceman, who uses the call sign "Mudryi" (Wise).

"The longer this static war continues, the worse it is for us," he said in a phone interview.[11]

”

Business Insider reported on November 2023:

“ Soldiers in Ukraine are veering increasingly older as the country grapples with a shortage of soldiers after roughly 20 months of brutal fighting against Russia.

As countless casualties have hampered Ukraine's forces, the average age of a soldier in the country is currently around 43 years old, Time magazine reported last week.

That average is up by nearly 10 years from March 2022, one month after the war began, when the average age of a Ukrainian soldier was between 30 and 35 years old, according to FT.

"They're grown men now, and they aren't that healthy to begin with," a close aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Time. "This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia."[12]

”

Alexander Mercouris is a UK writer on international affairs who cohosts The Duran YouTube channel with Alex Christoforou who lives in Cyprus. The Duran YouTube channel is a pro-Russia YouTube channel. On November 8, 2023, The Duran YouTube channel, published the video West will choke on Putin's terms for Ukraine which pointed how badly the war was going for Ukraine and that Ukraine and the West will not like Russia's terms for ending the conflict. In addition, they stated that the "stalemate narrative" that various pro-Ukrainian advocates are pushing are fake, absurd and born of desperation and that the Ukrainian army is running out of fighting men. In addition, Mercoouris noted that although the Biden Administration and the collective West will be hurt by the war in Ukraine, "The United States will pull through" and that it's "not an existential disaster" for the USA, but for Europe (Especially Germany) it will be a big blow.

In a November 2023 interview, John Mearsheimer said although there is a slim chance that the war will end soon with a neutral Ukraine (Due to the distrust of Russia towards Ukraine/West as a result of the duplicitiousness of Ukraine/West during the Minsk Agreements), Russia will annex two to four more oblasts in Ukraine, especially the oblasts of Odessa and Kharkiv, before the war ends. Once again, Mearsheimer indicates that the war in Ukraine may end in an unstable frozen conflict and not a meaningful peace agreement and that is probably the best we can hope for. (See: How the war in Ukraine will end | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman). Mearsheimer also predicts that there will be a security competition between the USA/West/Ukraine and Russia that continues even if there is a frozen conflict and the risk of escalation is great. I agree with Mearsheimer about these matters.

While the average post WWII war that lasts longer than a year lasts about 10 years, given the growing Ukraine fatigue in the USA/West and Ukraine's military weakness relative to Russia, I am increasingly optimistic that the war will end significantly sooner than 10 years.[13]

Any "victory" Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine in terms of land gained will be a pyrrhic victory (See: Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse and Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future). I also predict that Ukraine will be wrecked and become a rump state.

Regardless of when the war ends, it will have hurt Ukraine, Russia, the West, and much of the world in significant ways and it would have been better if the war did not happen. For example, Ukraine is a big food producer and many third-world countries struggle when it comes to food security.

Leaders' hatred of losing wars and nationalism

Here is something to consider: We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Role in World History

Key quote: "Russians, for example, estimated that their country was responsible for 61% of world history." - Source: We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Nation’s Role in World History, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2018, Pages 521-528

Map data derived from: We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Nation’s Role in World History, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2018, Pages 521-528

Also, look at these resources:

If Russia suffers from "national narcissism" and believes that Russia is responsible for 61% of all world history, then Trump and his team essentially has to "reason with crazy" so to speak. And you can't reason with crazy. So it's not surprising if it's true that the odds of Trump settling the conflict is less than 50% within the first 90 days of the Trump administration. But maybe Russia's sky-high inflation, Russian ruble that has fallen in value and Russia's big labor shortages, and an increasing chance of Russia falling into stagflation (Company bankruptcies are increasing in Russia due to the very high interest rates in Russia, etc.) will make the Russians more amenable to working out a deal with Trump soon.

Trump's team may eventually work out a deal with Russia (with the most likely outcome eventually being a frozen conflict that may flare up from time to time as mentioned above), but the odds does seem like it's less than 50% of it happening in the first 90 days of the Trump Administration.

Academic research

How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics.

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine

“ Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[14] ”
Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[15]

Ukraine fatigue and NATO/West funding the war in Ukraine

I see some definite signs of Ukraine fatigue such as the Republicans tying funding the war in Ukraine to border security across Mexico border and European right-wing parties gaining traction in Europe. In addition, as far as Russia, there appears to be various people in the Kremlin who are unhappy about this war.

And just when I got my hopes up that the war might end relatively soon like in about a year or two, I see Joe Biden, Germany's DW News, Bill Browder and Bloomberg News talk about confiscating Russia's $300 billion in frozen assets (which could hurt the value of the U.S. dollar):

Russian defector reveals that a 'majority' of people inside the Kremlin are unhappy with the war in Ukraine

See also: Are the Russians as unhappy as they claim they are?


The Grand Kremlin Palace is a building in the Moscow Kremlin.

The Moscow Kremlin is a fortified complex in the center of Moscow. The Moscow Kremlin now serves as the official residence of the Russian president and as a museum.

Why did Putin invade Ukraine? A theory of degenerate autocracy

Endgame for the Ukrainian War

An Endgame for the Ukrainian War w/ John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris and Glenn Diesen, 9-9-2023

Russia's long history of many bitter, military defeats

See: Russia's long history of many bitter, military defeats

February 2022 might prove to be a pivotal moment in the future of global politics

See: February 2022 might prove to be a pivotal moment in the future of global politics

The specific month of April 2022 was not a pivotal point in international politics that will affect international politics for 30 years

Economic effects of the war on Russia

See also: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

Russian oil and gas revenue is down

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas:

Russia's economy is not highly diversified. It is too dependent on oil and gas. See: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy. Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas. China's economy is having significant problems compared to its past. If China's economy gets worse (And there is some evidence that China's future economy will may worse this decade and beyond), that is going to hurt the Russian economy.

"Even the act of diverting supplies to Asia entails a significant reduction in Russian companies’ profit margins. It costs a lot more to transport oil to Asian markets than to Europe, and there is not much spare transport capacity, which pushes up the cost of freight, reducing the profit made by Russian companies, whatever the amount at which the price is capped.

The price cap also enables Asian buyers to obtain big discounts on Russian oil. China and India may not officially be enforcing the cap, but it’s hard to imagine that companies from those countries will not use it to barter the price down. Indeed, this is already happening: some shipments to China due to be loaded onto tankers in January were sold at $5–6 cheaper per barrel than usual."[16]

Oil and gas are a significant part of the Russian economy.

Russia is now selling oil and gas at a lower profit margin to China/India due to sanctions and Europe moving away from Russia oil/gas.[17]
Russian monthly oil revenues from January 2022 to July 2023 (International Energy Agency estimates)[18]

In 2023, Russian oil revenues are considerably down from 2022.[19]

Countries with diversified economies are more resilient and stable:

Booz & Company was a global strategy consulting team established in the United States in 1914. The firm was acquired by PwC on April 4, 2014.

Below is the executive summary of their report entitled Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification

“ The effects of the recent global economic crisis were all-pervasive, and demonstrated that no economy is safe from destabilizing external events. Resource-dependent countries, with their narrow base of economic activity, are particularly vulnerable, but all countries may have vulnerabilities stemming from a lack of diversification in one or more economic dimensions, and they must be more vigilant in managing risks to their economies. Not only must a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) be balanced among sectors, but key elements of its economy must be varied, flexible, and readily applicable to a variety of economic opportunities, and areas of overconcentration must continually be identified and mitigated. Policymakers should work to achieve greater economic diversification, in order to reduce the impact of external events and foster more robust, resilient growth over the long term.

For resource-rich, developing economies, the immediate imperative is to diversify export-oriented sectors, but for the benefit of long-term sustainability, they must also look at the larger picture. A strong institutional and regulatory framework and workforce development initiatives are indispensable to the diversification effort; and proper management of human capital is key, especially in those countries experiencing a “demographic dividend.” Implementing such comprehensive diversification and risk management strategies won’t be easy, but the result—a diverse, stable, and growing economy—is worth the effort.[20]

”

Related articles:

Other major economic effects of the war in Ukraine on Russia

The MOEX Russia Index, or IMOEX, is a stock index that tracks the performance of the 50 largest and most liquid stocks across 10 sectors in Russia.

It is a capitalization-weighted composite index, which means that companies with larger market capitalization will constitute a larger percentage of the index's value.

Post the war in Ukraine, the MOEX index is down. However, in May of 2023 it was reported that the MOEX Russia Index has gained 24% in 2023 after tanking 42% in 2022.[21] Russia's stock market is boosted by domestic investors who have few options amid sweeping sanctions.[22]
Russian 100 ruble currency note

Recently, the Russian ruble has seen a big decline:

*Russian ruble slides to 16-month low against U.S. dollar as capital flight, shrinking trade surplus bite, Marketwatch, August 14, 2023

*Russia’s War-Torn Economy Hits Its Speed Limit: Economists see this week’s currency gyrations not as the beginning of a financial crisis but rather as a symptom of the Kremlin’s sclerotic economic prospects, Wall Street Journal, August 2023

*The Russian ruble hit a 16-month low this week and is one of the worst performing currencies in 2023, August, 2023

*Russia Cranks Interest Rates to 12% in Emergency Move Supporting Ruble, Barron's, August 2023

*5 stats show how Russia's economy is declining, Business Insider, 2023
Chart of the currency exchange between the Russian ruble to dollars from December 5, 2003 to August 26, 2023
4-15-25.PNG

Russia's demographic crisis has been made worse by the war in Ukraine

Russia’s population nightmare is going to get even worse, 2023

The war in Ukraine has aggravated a crisis that long predates the conflict. See: Demographics of Russia and Aging of Russia

Russia's fertility rate of 1.58 births per woman is one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.[23] It's fertility rate is below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.

Demographers estimate Russia will fall from being the 9th most populous country in the world to being the 17th by 2050.[23] And estimates indicate that Russia's population will drop from 2014's 142 million to 128 million by 2050.[23]

Russia will go out swinging (Ukraine, etc.), but its age demographics (which is among the worst in the world in terms of an aging population) and other problems will cause a cultural collapse in Russia in the 21st century (See: Peter Zeihan's demography series). See: Demographics of Russia and Aging of Russia

Russia, fertility rate and demographics videos:

The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis worse (See: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse).

Other articles related this war in Ukraine making Russia's demographic crisis worse:

For more information, please see:

User: Conservative essays on international politics

Vladimir Putin

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

General essays on international politics

The United States

China

Russia

See also

External links

References

  1. ↑ In what percentage of cases from 1500 to now, does the richer side win in great power conflicts? Use the book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 and other sources. Do not be overly dependent on whatever you glean from this book and use other sources too. Apply this data with other relevant data and come up with various scenarios and their probabilities as far as the war in Ukraine. Taking into account Russia's stagflation and slowing economy. Take into account the effects of Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries. Take into account the USA promise to provide long-range targeting data. Use other relevant data too like Europe's aging population and current economic challenges. And Russia's other economic problems and its demographic and labor problems., October 2025
  2. ↑ *Why Russia May Be Running Out of Time in Ukraine, October 2025
  3. ↑ In what percentage of cases from 1500 to now, does the richer side win in great power conflicts? Use the book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 and other sources. Do not be overly dependent on whatever you glean from this book and use other sources too. Apply this data with other relevant data and come up with various scenarios and their probabilities as far as the war in Ukraine. Taking into account Russia's stagflation and slowing economy. Take into account the effects of Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries. Take into account the USA promise to provide long-range targeting data. Use other relevant data too like Europe's aging population and current economic challenges. And Russia's other economic problems and its demographic and labor problems., October 2025
  4. ↑ Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine, The New Yorker, March 2022
  5. ↑ Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault, Foreign Affairs, Published August 18, 2014
  6. ↑ John Mearsheimer: There is no two-state solution
  7. ↑ Decoding Global Powerplays: International Relations Expert, John Mearsheimer Interview | News18
  8. ↑ White House tells Ukraine, allies that Congress will back more war aid, Axios, 2023
  9. ↑ Zelenskyy’s top aide slams West over ‘war fatigue’, Politico, 2023
  10. ↑ Political strategists on possible Ukraine aid-border security deal, GOP race for 2nd
  11. ↑ 'We're losing': Ukrainians reel from war chief's stalemate warning, Japan Times
  12. ↑ The average age of Ukrainian soldier is older than 40 as the country grapples with personnel problems, Business Insider, 2023
  13. ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
  14. ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
  15. ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
  16. ↑ Can Russia’s War Chest Withstand the New Oil Cap?
  17. ↑ Can Russia’s War Chest Withstand the New Oil Cap?
  18. ↑ Russia Oil Passes Price Cap as Export Revenue Hits 2023 High, Bloomberg News, August 11, 2023
  19. ↑ Russia Oil Passes Price Cap as Export Revenue Hits 2023 High, Bloomberg News, August 11, 2023
  20. ↑ Resilient, stable, sustainable: The benefits of economic diversification, Booz & Company, 2011
  21. ↑ Russia's domestic stock investors, shut off from the international financial system, have helped send the Moscow Exchange to a 12-month high, Business Insider, 2023
  22. ↑ Russia's domestic stock investors, shut off from the international financial system, have helped send the Moscow Exchange to a 12-month high, Business Insider, 2023
  23. ↑ 23.0 23.1 23.2 Russian fertility rates fall to record lows on the back of a deteriorating economy and sanctions pressure, bne IntelliNews, 2022
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