Essay: Peak wokeness. Are we there yet? A new conservative age rising

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Steve Turley has produced many well-supported videos on how a new conservative age is rising.

Question: Are we at peak wokeness?

Question: Is a new conservative age rising?

There have been various movements during my life.

There was the New Atheism movement which died (see: Decline of the atheist movement). There is feminism that has had some waves of feminism (there was First-Wave feminism, Second-Wave feminism, Third Wave feminism and Fourth-Wave feminism) and now feminism has some backlash.

Movements can be like fads with a certain shelf life.

Take a look at THESE GOOGLE TREND GRAPHS dealing with the USA which has a graph related to wokeness.

Take a look at THESE GOOGLE TREND GRAPHS dealing with the world which has a graph related to wokeness

We appear to be at or near peak wokeness which will last for 0-3 more years. Already I am seeing some backlash (Donald Trump, etc.).

There have been some articles about this matter which can be seen below:

A new conservative age is rising[edit]

Steve Turley on a new conservative age is rising[edit]

Steve Turley and others indicate we are living in a new conservative age.

An Amish farm near Morristown, New York.

Please see:

Steve Turley's videos on a new conservative age is rising:

Postsecularism age[edit]

See also: Postsecularism and Desecularization

A Chinese Methodist church. Despite China's official policy of state atheism, the number of Chinese Christians has increased significantly; from 4 million before 1949 to 67 million in 2010.[1]

Postsecularism refers to a number of theories concerning the persistence and resurgence of religion in the present.

On March 19, 2019, the Brookings Institute declared: "a highly educated, post-secular society is here, and it will likely spread globally."[2]

On August 8, 2018, Michael Clune wrote in The Atlantic: "There’s been a lot of talk in literary and philosophical circles of a new “post-secular” age."[3]

The theologian and Harvard University academic Harvey Cox asserted that grassroots movements such as fundamentalism and the Charismatic movement/pentecostalism are significant religious forces that are resistant to secularization forces.[4][5] In her book The Battle for God, Karen Armstrong wrote: "One of the most startling developments of the late 20th century has been the emergence within every major religious tradition of a militant piety known as 'fundamentalism'… this religious resurgence has taken many observers by surprise."[6] Today, even the highly secularized public and political sphere of France is showing a new and more open attitude towards religion.[7]

In November 2017, the Catholic News Agency reported Vatican Secretary for Relations with the States Archbishop Paul Gallagher indicating that religion is no longer a forbidden subject in European politics.[8]

According to Gallagher: "Many diplomatic services throughout Europe and elsewhere are now running courses, literally accelerated courses to make up time on religion,” he said, explaining that political leaders are beginning to recognize that “the world is a very religious place."[9]

In 2016, the website Modern Diplomacy indicated:

...there are signs that the anti-religion virulence is in abeyance in Europe and one who detects those signs is none other than the present day European philosopher Jürgen Habermas...

Jürgen Habermas must have surely read Held’s influential essay. Habermas is very much involved in the debate on the EU identity and has even signed manifestos on the same with Umberto Eco, the late Derrida and other influential philosophers. In 2005 Habermas delivered a lecture on the occasion of the Holberg prize which then became an article in 2006. See “Religion in the public sphere” by J. Habermas, in European Journal of Philosophy 14: 1-25. The core of that essay is that “secular citizens in Europe must learn to live, the sooner the better, in a post-secular society and in so doing they will be following the example of religious citizens, who have already come to terms with the ethical expectations of democratic citizenship. So far secular citizens have not been expected to make a similar effort.”

Habermas addresses the debate in terms of John Rawls’s concept of “public use of reason.” At the beginning of the article Habermas introduces two closely linked ideas: on the one hand the increasing isolation of Europe from the rest of the world in terms of its religious configurations, and on the other hand the notion of “multiple modernities.” He challenges the notion that Europe is the lead society in the modernizing process and invites his fellow secular Europeans to what he calls “a self reflective transcending of the secularist self-understanding of Modernity,” an attitude that goes beyond mere tolerance in as much as it necessarily engenders feelings of respect for the world view of the religious person, so that their pronouncements don’t automatically engender derision and contempt, a la Voltaire.[10]

Desecularization[edit]

See also: Desecularization

Atheism is in decline worldwide, with the number of atheists falling from 4.5% of the world's population in 1970 to 2.0% in 2010 and projected to drop to 1.8% by 2020.[11] See: Global atheism statistics

Desecularization is the process by which religion reasserts its societal influence though religious values, institutions, sectors of society and symbols in reaction to previous and/or co-occurring secularization processes.[12] Desecularization can also occur through providential acts of God and in reaction to God granting Christian's prayers.[13]

From a global perspective, religion is seeing a resurgence and scholars of religious demographics frequently use the term "global resurgence of religion" to describe the process of desecularization which began in the late portion of the 20th century.[14]

As a percentage of the world's population, atheism peaked in 1970.[15]

Global atheism is expected to decline in the 21st century and beyond in terms of its global market share.[16] Presently, there are a number of excellent sources which indicate that atheism is shrinking in global market share (see: Global atheism statistics).

The theologian and Harvard University academic Harvey Cox asserted that grassroots movements such as fundamentalism and the Charismatic movement/pentecostalism are significant religious forces that are resistant to secularization forces.[17][18] In her book The Battle for God, Karen Armstrong wrote: "One of the most startling developments of the late 20th century has been the emergence within every major religious tradition of a militant piety known as 'fundamentalism'… this religious resurgence has taken many observers by surprise."[19] Today, even the highly secularized public and political sphere of France is showing a new and more open attitude towards religion.[20]

The skeptic Michael Shermer wrote: "At the beginning of the twentieth century social scientists predicted that belief in God would decrease by the end of the century because of the secularization of society. In fact… the opposite has occurred… Never in history have so many, and such a high percentage of the population believed in God. Not only is God not dead, as Nietzsche proclaimed, but he has never been more alive."[21][22] See also: Secularization thesis

The American sociologist and author Peter L. Berger introduced the concept of desecularization in 1999.[23][24]

Many of the areas of the former areas of the Soviet Union, including Russia, experienced a rapid desecularization since the fall of the Soviet Union.[25] Communist China is currently experiencing rapid desecularization due to the growth of Christianity in China.[26] See also: Growth of Christianity in China

Global desecularization[edit]

See also: Global atheism and Global atheism statistics and Growth of religion

In 2011, atheist Jacques Berlinerblau declared: "The Golden Age of Secularism has passed."[27]

The atheist population mostly resides in East Asia (particularly China) and in secular Europe/Australia primarily among whites.[28] See also: Global atheism and Atheist population and Western atheism and race

On July 24, 2013, CNS News reported: "Atheism is in decline worldwide, with the number of atheists falling from 4.5% of the world’s population in 1970 to 2.0% in 2010 and projected to drop to 1.8% by 2020, according to a new report by the Center for the Study of Global Christianity at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary in South Hamilton, Mass."[29]

Professor Eric Kaufmann, who teaches at Birkbeck College, University of London, specializes in the academic area of how demographic changes affect religion/irreligion and politics. Kaufmann is an agnostic.

On December 23, 2012, Kaufmann wrote:

I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.

On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British.[30] [31]

African Christians clapping at an open air meeting.

In recent years, Christianity has seen a rapid growth in Africa.[32] See: Global Christianity

A study conducted by the Washington-based Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life says that Africans are among the most religious people on Earth.[33] Africa has a high fertility rate and it is seeing a big population boom. According to the Institute For Security Studies: "Africa's population is the fastest growing in the world. It is expected to increase by roughly 50% over the next 18 years, growing from 1.2 billion people today to over 1.8 billion in 2035. In fact, Africa will account for nearly half of global population growth over the next two decades."[34] See: Religion and Africa

At a conference Kaufmann said of religious demographic projections concerning the 21st century:

Part of the reason I think demography is very important, at least if we are going to speak about the future, is that it is the most predictable of the social sciences.

...if you look at a population and its age structure now. You can tell a lot about the future. ...So by looking at the relative age structure of different populations you can already say a lot about the future...

...Religious fundamentalism is going to be on the increase in the future and not just out there in the developing world..., but in the developed world as well.[35]

See also: Religion and migration and Growth of religious fundamentalism

Dr. Steve Turley wrote:

According to University of London scholar Eric Kaufmann’s detailed study on global demographic trends, we are in the early stages of nothing less than a demographic revolution. In Kaufmann’s words, "religious fundamentalists are on course to take over the world." There is a significant demographic deficit between secularists and conservative religionists. For example, in the U.S., while self-identified non-religionist women averaged only 1.5 children per couple in 2002, conservative evangelical women averaged 2.5 children, representing a 28 percent fertility edge. Kaufmann notes that this demographic deficit has dramatic effects over time. In a population evenly divided, these numbers indicate that conservative evangelicals would increase from 50 to 62.5 percent of the population in a single generation. In two generations, their number would increase to 73.5 percent, and over the course of 200 years, they would represent 99.4 percent. The Amish and Mormons provide contemporary illustrations of the compound effect of endogamous growth. The Amish double in population every twenty years, and projections have the Amish numbering over a million in the U.S. and Canada in just a few decades. Since 1830, Mormon growth has averaged 40 percent per decade, which means that by 2080, there may be as many as 267 million Mormons in the world, making them by 2100 anywhere from one to six percent of the world’s population.

In Europe, immigration is making the continent more religiously conservative, not less; in fact, London and Paris are some of the most religiously dense areas within their respective populations. In Britain, for example, Ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Jews constitute only 17 percent of the Jewish population but account for 75 percent of Jewish births. And in Israel, Haredi schoolchildren have gone from comprising a few percent to nearly a third of all Jewish pupils in a matter of five decades, and are poised to represent the majority of the Jewish population by 2050. Since 1970, charismatic Christians in Europe have expanded steadily at a rate of 4 percent per year, in step with Muslim growth. Currently, Laestadian Lutherans in Finland and Holland’s Orthodox Calvinists have a fertility advantage over their wider secular populations of 4:1 and 2:1 respectively.

In contrast, Kaufmann’s data projects that secularists, who consistently exemplify a low fertility rate of around 1.5 (significantly below the replacement level of 2.1), will begin a steady decline after 2030 to a mere 14 to 15 percent of the American population. Similar projections apply to Europe as well. Kaufmann thus appears to have identified what he calls "the soft underbelly of secularism," namely, demography. This is because secular liberalism entails its own “demographic contradiction,” the affirmation of the sovereign individual devoid of the restraints of classical moral structures necessitates the freedom not to reproduce. The link between sex and procreation having been broken, modernist reproduction translates into mere personal preference. It thus turns out that the radical individualism so celebrated and revered by contemporary secular propagandists is in fact the agent by which their ideology implodes.[36]

Future of desecularization via the continued global resurgence of religion[edit]

See also: Growth of global desecularization and Acceleration of 21st century desecularization and Atheism vs. Christianity

Eric Kaufmann, a professor at Birkbeck College, University of London, using a wealth of demographic studies, argues that there will be a significant decline of global atheism in the 21st century which will impact the Western World.[37]

Eric Kaufmann using a wealth of demographic studies, argues that there will be a significant decline of global atheism in the 21st century which will impact the Western World.[38][39] In addition, Kaufmann argues that religious conservatism has a long-term trend of rising and that their influence in the world will significantly increase.[40] Kaufmann is author of the book Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?.[41][42] In the Western World due to immigration and the higher birth rates of religious people, Kaufman writes: "Committed religious populations are growing in the West, and will reverse the march of secularism before 2050."[43]

Kaufmann told a secular audience in Australia: "The trends that are happening worldwide inevitably in an age of globalization are going to affect us."[44] Furthermore, Kaufmann also argues that secularization may reverse itself significantly earlier than 2050 in the West due to religious immigration and a religious population which is increasingly resistant to secularization in Europe.[45]

In addition, in the latter portion of the 20th century and continuing into the 21st century, the atheist movement has had lower confidence/morale due to various historical events/trends (see: Atheists and the endurance of religion).

Kaufman wrote in his academic paper Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century

Today, values play a more important role in fertility behaviour, throwing the contrast between religious pronatalism and secular low-fertility individualism into relief. Over several generations, this process can lead to significant social and political changes. Early Christianity’s exponential rise during its gestation period from 30 to 300 A.D. has been traced to its superior demography (fertility, mortality and female sex ratio), which maintained a rate of growth similar to contemporary Mormonism: 40 percent per decade. For Christians, this led to a jump from 40 converts to 6 million inside three centuries. (Stark 1996) Christianity became the religion of an empire and a continent. In the United States, conservative sects increased their share of white Protestantism from roughly a third to two-thirds during the twentieth century – largely on the back of higher fertility. On the other hand, sects like the Shakers and Cathars, which permitted entry only through conversion, rapidly faded from the scene. Demographic religious revival is a medium and long-term phenomenon, but awareness of shifting population composition can lead to political soul-searching and instability well before the full impact of demographic change takes place. This is clear in ethnically-tense societies like Israel, Northern Ireland, Bosnia, Lebanon, Cote D’Ivoire or Assam.[46]

Research on the number of atheists in the world[edit]

Data compiled by the Center for the Study of Global Christianity (CSGC) at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary (GCTS) as far as the number of atheists in the world:

Given the information in the resources directly above, the Center for the Study of Global Christianity at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary, expects the global atheist population to shrink in its total number of individuals in 2017.

If CSGC is correct, then not only is the global market share for atheism going downward, but now the actual number of atheists in the world is going down as well. Specifically, CSGC is projecting that from the midpoint of 2016 to the midpoint of 2017, the total number of atheists in the world is going to go from 138,101,000 individuals to 137,041,000 individuals. That would be a net loss of 60,000 atheists in the world during this period.[47]

Desecularization and aging populations in the developed world[edit]

In 2012, a Georgetown University study was published indicating that only about 30 percent of those who grow up in an atheist household remain atheists as adults.[48] See also: Atheism and its retention rate in individuals

See also: Desecularization and aging populations and Global atheism and aging populations

The article Developed countries may become more religious in 20 years indicates:

Researchers from HSE University and RANEPA found that in high-income countries, age, rather than the cohort effect, has more impact on religiosity. They predict that this may have an impact on societal structure in the future. The study was published in Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion.

It has long been observed that older people tend to be more religious than younger people. However, it is still disputable whether this fact should be attributed to people generally becoming more religious with age per se (age effect), or to the process of secularization, wherein earlier cohorts (to which the now older people belong) used to be more religious than those that appeared later, i.e. younger cohorts (cohort effect). HSE University scholars decided to analyze this issue using data from six waves of the World Values Survey (2016) in high-income OECD countries. A total of 16 countries were studied, including Australia, the USA, Canada, Great Britain, Israel, New Zealand, Japan, Germany, as well as other European countries.

The researchers used logistic models and multiple linear regression to determine that the age effect has a higher impact on religiosity than the cohort effect. Older people are more inclined to believe in God, attend church, and believe it is important to instill religion in children.. The cohort effect impacts other factors analyzed by the scholars, such as church attendance and a belief in religion's importance in life, but the age effect still strongly prevails over the cohort effect...

The transition from religious to secular values may slow by 2040 in high-income OECD countries and, probably, there will be a resurgence of religiosity, the symptoms of which can be observed in Japan. On the other hand, widely divergent socio-cultural settings in different countries have an impact on religious behavior and attitude, and this must be taken into account in further research.[49]

(See also: European desecularization in the 21st century and United States, irreligion vs. religion and demographics and American atheism and British atheism and Irreligion in Australia and Postsecularism and New Zealand in the 21st century and Canada and irreligion)

Notes[edit]

  1. Global Christianity: Regional Distribution of Christians". Pew Research Center. 19 December 2011
  2. Why the spread of public education is unlikely to yield a secular world by David Baker,Brookings Institute, March 20, 2019
  3. I Don’t Believe in Aliens Anymore by Michael Clune, The Atlantic, August 8, 2018
  4. Publisher's Weekly Review of The Desecularization of the World: Resurgent Religion and World Politics by Peter L. Berger
  5. Kirkus Reviews- FIRE FROM HEAVEN: Pentecostalism, Spirituality, and the Reshaping of Religion in the Twenty-First Century by Harvey Cox
  6. Karen Armstrong, The Battle for God, p. 9
  7. How religious is the public sphere? – A critical stance on the debate about public religion and post-secularity, Draft Version, Jens Koehrsen (Köhrsen). Bielefeld Graduate School in History and Sociology, Germany. École des hautes études en sciences socials, France. Published in: Acta Sociologica 55 (3), S. 273-288.
  8. Religious freedom, not secularism, key to Europe’s future, Vatican official says, Catholic News Agency, 2017
  9. Religious freedom, not secularism, key to Europe’s future, Vatican official says, Catholic News Agency, 2017
  10. [Jurgen Habermas on the Vision of a Post-Secular Europe] BY EMANUEL L. PAPARELLA, PH.D., Modern Diplomacy
  11. Global Study: Atheists in Decline, Only 1.8% of World Population by 2020
  12. Religion and the State in Russia and China: Suppression, Survival and Revival by Christopher Marsh, 2011, page 11 (Christopher Marsh cites the definitions of desecularization given by Peter L. Berger and Vyacheslav Karpov)
  13. The return of religion
  14. Atheism Peaks, While Spiritual Groups Move Toward Convergence by Nury Vittachi, July 14, 2015, website Sciene 2.0
  15. Publisher's Weekly Review of The Desecularization of the World: Resurgent Religion and World Politics by Peter L. Berger
  16. Kirkus Reviews- FIRE FROM HEAVEN: Pentecostalism, Spirituality, and the Reshaping of Religion in the Twenty-First Century by Harvey Cox
  17. Karen Armstrong, The Battle for God, p. 9
  18. How religious is the public sphere? – A critical stance on the debate about public religion and post-secularity, Draft Version, Jens Koehrsen (Köhrsen). Bielefeld Graduate School in History and Sociology, Germany. École des hautes études en sciences socials, France. Published in: Acta Sociologica 55 (3), S. 273-288.
  19. How We Believe: Science, Skepticism, and the Search for God by Michael Shermer, Preface to the book, 2003
  20. 90 Atheist Quotes that All Christians and Atheists Should Read, Website: Bishop's Encyclopedia of Religion, Society and Philosophy
  21. Journal of Church and State, Desecularization: A Conceptual Framework by Vyacheslav Karpov, 2010
  22. Peter L. Berger, “The Desecularization of the World: A Global Overview,” in The Desecularization of the World: Resurgent Religion and World Politics, ed. Peter L. Berger (Grand Rapids: William B. Eerdmans Publishing Company, 1999)
  23. What does the historical record say about how fast secularism can collapse in countries?
  24. World's biggest atheist population about to see a big decline
  25. Berlinerblau, Jacques (February 4, 2011). "Obama at the National Prayer Breakfast". The Chronicle of Higher Education/Brainstorm blog. Retrieved on May 29, 2015.
  26. A surprising map of where the world’s atheists live, By Max Fisher and Caitlin Dewey, Washington Post, May 23, 2013
  27. Global Study: Atheists in Decline, Only 1.8% of World Population by 2020
  28. London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea by Eric Kaufmann, Huffington Post, 2012
  29. 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious, Tuesday, April 30, 2013
  30. The African apostles: How Christianity exploded in 20th-century Africa
  31. Why so many Africans are religious: Leo Igwe
  32. Africa’s population boom: burden or opportunity?, Institute For Security Studies
  33. Eric Kaufmann - Religion, Demography and Politics in the 21st Century
  34. (source: Text below the YouTube video Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth and the text was written by Dr. Steven Turley).
  35. Eric Kaufmann: Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?, Australian Broadcasting Corporation
  36. Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann, Belfer Center, Harvard University/Birkbeck College, University of London
  37. Shall the religious inherit the earth by David Kaufmann
  38. Early paper - Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann, Belfer Center, Harvard University/Birkbeck College, University of London
  39. Early paper - Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann, Belfer Center, Harvard University/Birkbeck College, University of London
  40. Shall the religious inherit the earth - Festival of Dangerous Ideas - Eric Kaufmann
  41. *European immigration will pour Christian creationists into Europe
  42. Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann, Belfer Center, Harvard University/Birkbeck College, University of London (PDF)
  43. Study: Atheists Have Lowest 'Retention Rate' Compared to Religious Groups
  44. Developed countries may become more religious in 20 years, Eureka Alert