Essay: Political polls vs. political betting markets. Which are better? Also, there was no red wave in 2022 U.S. midterm elections, but it was a fun red cape to wave in front of Democrats for awhile. Olé! Olé! Olé!

From Conservapedia
Jump to: navigation, search
There was no red wave in the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, but it was a fun red cape to wave in front of Democrats, liberals and leftists for awhile.

Regardless, Republicans will likely soon control the House of Representatives. As of October 11, 2022, data compiled from leading political betting websites indicates there is a 92.7% chance that Republicans will win control of the U.S House of Representatives. The data was compiled by ElectionBettingOdds.com.

Should Republicans gain control of the House of Representatives, they will soon begin to logjam Joe Biden's legislative agenda and also soon begin Congressional investigations of the Biden administration. Olé! Olé! Olé!

There is good evidence that politcal betting websites are more accurate than political polling.[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]

Henceforth, an editor who uses the User: Conservative account, will use political betting websites, such as ElectionBettingOdds.com, instead of pollsters, when I want to forecast elections.

The website ElectionBettingOdds.com averages live odds that it pulls from FTX.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com, and Polymarket.com. The odds are then volume-weighted, meaning that the odds for each market are multiplied by that market's share of quarterly volume.[6]

The website ElectionBettingOdds.com has a respectable track record in terms of accuracy as can be seen at: Track Record - Election Betting Odds, 2022

Political betting markets are markets where individuals wager on elections.

Arguments on why political betting markets are better than political polls

The history of political betting markets:

Track record of the website ElectionBettingOdds.com in terms of accuracy

The website ElectionBettingOdds.com averages live odds that it pulls from FTX.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com, and Polymarket.com. The odds are then volume-weighted, meaning that the odds for each market are multiplied by that market's share of quarterly volume.[7]

How accurate is the website ElectionBettingOdds.com?

The website ElectionBettingOdds.com has a respectable track record in terms of accuracy as can be seen at: Track Record - Election Betting Odds, 2022

Screen shot from the website ElectionBettingOdds.com.[1] The website is run by Maxim Lott and John Stossel.

2019: Judgement and Decision Making Journal: Another approach

According to the abstract for the 2019 journal article Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking” published in the Judgment and Decision Making journal:

Psychologists typically measure beliefs and preferences using self-reports, whereas economists are much more likely to infer them from behavior. Prediction markets appear to be a victory for the economic approach, having yielded more accurate probability estimates than opinion polls or experts for a wide variety of events, all without ever asking for self-reported beliefs. We conduct the most direct comparison to date of prediction markets to simple self-reports using a within-subject design. Our participants traded on the likelihood of geopolitical events. Each time they placed a trade, they first had to report their belief that the event would occur on a 0–100 scale. When previously validated aggregation algorithms were applied to self-reported beliefs, they were at least as accurate as prediction-market prices in predicting a wide range of geopolitical events. Furthermore, the combination of approaches was significantly more accurate than prediction-market prices alone, indicating that self-reports contained information that the market did not efficiently aggregate. Combining measurement techniques across behavioral and social sciences may have greater benefits than previously thought."[8]

For the full Journal article, please see: Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking” Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 14, No. 2, March 2019, pp. 135-147

Post 2022 U.S. midterm elections - Secular leftists at RationalWiki vs. User: Conservative: Who will have a greater ability to predict the political future?

The leader of the Luddites. A luddite is a person opposed to technological change.

The website RationalWiki has a prediction page where individuals who often have a secular worldview and are politically left-leaning make predictions such as who is going to win political races or the odds of political events.[9] Needless to say, there is a lot of groupthink at RationalWiki (see: Atheism and groupthink).

After doing some additional research post the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, an editor who uses the User: Conservative account, is going to use websites such as ElectionbettingOdds.com for political predictions and definitely will not go to RationalWiki for various political predictions.

The English mathematician and inventor Charles Babbage, who is credited with having conceived the first automatic digital computer, was a Christian who believed that God was the ultimate programmer.

The field of search engine optimization has both a quantitative and qualitative aspect to it. Unlike Conservapedia, RationalWiki has never ranked in the top 5 search results for the keywords homosexuality, evolution and atheism at a popular search engine that begins with a G.

Unlike an editior who uses the User: Conservative account, who is a Bible-believing Christian, many of the luddites at RationalWiki have great difficulty understanding search engine optimization. Also, sadly for them, unlike User: Conservative, many RationalWikians fail to understand the concept of diversification and have all their website influence eggs in one basket. RationalWiki has lost a lot of web traffic and continues to do so (see: RationalWiki and web traffic).

In addition, unlike atheist websites, there are major Christian websites that are experiencing very large volumes of traffic and they continue to grow their web traffic at a significant pace (see: Internet evangelism: Christians vs. atheists).

Steve Turley's commentary on the 2022 midterm elections

Steve Turley, who expected a red wave in the 2022 midterm elections, produced some post-2022 midterm elections videos which I think are pretty good.

Kellyanne Conway on the 2022 midterm elections

  • Biden is getting a little over-confident: Ex-Trump adviser. Kellyanne Conway says a red tide instead of a red wave happening in the 2022 midterm elections may be a long-term bigger gain because it will help an overconfident Joe Biden decide to run again in 2024. It is widely thought that Joe Biden will lose such an election. As of October 11, 2022, the website ElectionBettingOdds.com gives Joe Biden a 17.1% chance of winning a presidential race in 2024.

Steve Turley on a new conservative age is rising

Steve Turley and others indicate we are living in a new conservative age.

Steve Turley's videos on a new conservative age is rising:

The election of Donald Trump can be likened to a supervolcano explosion of right-wing populism in the world.

In 2019, John Feffer wrote at the left leaning The Nation:

"In the Americas, the Trump tsunami has swept across both continents and the 'pink tide' of progressivism has all but disappeared from the southern half of the hemisphere...

In this planet-wide rising tide of right-wing populism, the liberal left commands only a few disconnected islands — Iceland, Mexico, New Zealand, South Korea, Spain, Uruguay... Worse, crafty operators with even more ambitious agendas stand ready to destroy the liberal status quo once and for all."[10]

Future of Christianity

See also: Future of Christianity and Desecularization and Religion and its projected increase in the 22nd century

The prominent historian Sir Diarmaid MacCulloch, professor of the History of the Church at Oxford University, indicates that he believes Christianity faces a "bright future" worldwide (See also: Global Christianity).

According to MacCulloch, "Christianity, the world's largest religion, is rapidly expanding – by all indications, its future is very bright."[11]

See also

External links

Notes