Essay: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse

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The flag of Russia

Shortly before the pandemic broke out in 2020 Vladimir Putin stated: "Russia's destiny and its historical prospects depend on one thing: how many of us there are and how many of us there will be."[1]

On January 10, 2024 the Moscow Times reported in their article Russia's Population Could Fall to 130Mln by 2046 – Rosstat:

“ Russia’s population could drop to 130 million by 2046 due to declining immigration numbers and low birth rates, according to a worst-case projection by Russia’s statistics agency Rosstat, the RBC news website reported.

Rosstat predicts Russia’s population will drop from the current 146.1 million to 138.8 million by 2046 under its most likely scenario, which was released in October.

Rosstat’s latest worst-case scenario anticipates an even deeper population decline of 15.4 million over the next 22 years, which would amount to 700,000 fewer people living in the country each year.

The agency’s best-case scenario envisions an increase of 4.59 million people to 150.87 million by 2046.[2]

”

According to the Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov the war in Ukraine makes Russia's demographic crisis worse.[3]

Salavat Abylkalikov indicates:

“ In 2022, Russia's population growth rate was -0.38%. Assuming this rate persists, the population will halve in 184 years (according to Rosstat figures, Russia currently has 146.4 million inhabitants — The Bell). According to the UN's latest projection, Russia's population will be 112.2 million by 2100 under average circumstances.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused life expectancy in Russia to fall by 3.3 years. It quickly began to recover in 2022, rising by 2.7 years. However, the war has disrupted this progress, and life expectancy is now impacted by war-related deaths and stress-induced substance abuse. Lower incomes and worsening access to medication, diagnostics, equipment and treatment are further reducing life expectancy.

The war may also cause a decrease in inward migration, which has previously helped offset Russia's natural population decline. From 1992-2019, the natural loss was 13.8 million people, but inward migration compensated with 9.6 million. Russia could now find itself in a situation where natural and migratory losses reinforce one another...

Shifts in the age structure of the population pose a substantial demographic risk for Russia's economy. The generations born in the 1990s and 2000s, when Russia's birth rate was at its lowest, are now entering the labor market. This will exacerbate the existing crisis due to a lack of young workers. Meanwhile, the post-war generations of the 1950s and 60s are aging and approaching retirement.[4]

”
Russian demography has long been an existential issue to Vladimir Putin. In 2021, he declared “saving the people of Russia is our top national priority".[5]

The main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis according to the Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov

The Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov says the main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis will be the following:

“ According to the average version of the UN forecast, Russia's population by 2050 may be about 133.4 million people, which is 14th in the world and below countries such as Egypt, the Philippines, and Mexico. But if Russia goes not according to the average, but according to the low option that is quite likely at the present time, then with a population of 123.2 million people we will drop to 16th place and will already be neighbors with Tanzania and Vietnam. Thus, the price of switching to the low scenario could be -10 million people, as well as a decrease in the place in the top countries in terms of population. Moreover, the low version of the UN forecast did not include too low or even negative migration growth.

A smaller population means a country's lower economic potential, a shrinking domestic market, worsening demographic problems and an aging population, as well as a decrease in the country's geopolitical power. The population size still correlates with the weight in international relations, the ability to promote their interests on the world stage. And the declining population for the largest country in the world may cause some neighbors on the continent, especially the eastern ones, to be tempted to solve their internal growing problems by some external adventures. But will Russia find anyone and how to fight back, will there be allies?[6]

”

Articles and videos related to the war in Ukraine making Russia's demographic crisis even worse

Russia's population size.jpg

Videos:

Russia brain drain and the war in Ukraine

Russia's fertility rate and demographic crises videos

Other articles related to Russia's demographic crisis

Russia's labor shortage

See also: Russia's labor shortage

The Center for European Policy Analysis reported on March 9, 2024:

“ Towards the end of last year, experts from the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences estimated that Russia faced a shortfall of nearly 5 million workers in 2023, which is already impeding economic growth. The total workforce is a little under 74 million.

With perhaps a million Russians, including many working-age men, having fled the country, with more than 300,000 dead or wounded in Ukraine, with more than a million men in the military, and a fertility rate of 1.5 — far below the so-called replacement rate of 2.1 — the country simply cannot meet its needs.

The head of the Central Bank is among those describing it as the country’s most serious problem, hardly surprising when unemployment is just 2.9% and the vacancy rate is 6.8%.

This scarcity is particularly pronounced in the manufacturing, construction, and transportation sectors. According to recruitment agencies and company management, the workforce deficit will worsen in 2024.

Beyond skilled professionals, Russia struggles to meet even basic labor demands, including those for military purposes. Increasingly, schoolchildren and students are being enlisted for war-related tasks. Just last week, a major investigation revealed how minors as young as 14 are involved in activities for the “Mayor’s Labor Unit” in Krasnoyarsk, weaving camouflage nets and preparing parcels for frontline needs.[7]

”



For more information, please see: Russia's labor shortage

2023: In Russia, the shortage of personnel in the oil and gas industry was assessed

See also: Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia

The Oreanda-News agency was founded in August 1994 in Moscow, becoming one of the first independent news agencies in contemporary Russia.[8] Since 2007, it has been based in Saint Petersburg, Russia.[9]

In 2023, Oreana-News reported in an article entitled In Russia, the shortage of personnel in the oil and gas industry was assessed:

“ Currently, the Russian oil and gas industry lacks 25 thousand employees. Elena Kuznetsova, partner of Yakov and Partners, told RIA Novosti about the shortage of staff.

She noted that the need for personnel in the sphere is 90 percent higher than at the beginning of 2021. Companies are particularly in need of welders, locksmiths, machinists, engineers and drillers. Moreover, problems with the lack of workers are fixed not only in the energy sector. In particular, companies are actively looking for sales specialists, IT specialists, builders and managers.

Kuznetsova emphasizes that it is most difficult for employers to find medium- and highly qualified personnel, since they cannot be replaced quickly. Experts attribute the shortage of labor to the relocation of specialists, the low attractiveness of work in remote regions, as well as the aging of existing personnel and low motivation of young people.

Earlier, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said that the shortage of personnel is the main problem of the Russian economy. According to the representative of the Bank of Russia, for further economic growth, it is necessary to ensure not the availability of money and loans, but to increase labor productivity.[10]

”

During his annual phone-in with the public in June this year, President Vladimir Putin described low productivity as “one of the most acute and important” problems facing Russia.[11] See: Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia

For more information, please see: Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies

Russia's demographic crisis and its state of public health

Adam Gwiazda's article Demographic crisis in Russia states:

“ The state of public health is one of the most extreme aspects of the demographic crisis in Russia. As a result of the AIDS epidemic, alcoholism and the dreadful state of health care, in the years 2005-2015 the mortality rate in Russia was three times higher among men and twice as high among women as in other countries with a similar level of social and economic development. More than half of the deaths of Russians aged 15-54 were caused by alcohol abuse after the collapse of the USSR. It should be noted that even the increase in the income of the Russian population by about 80 per cent in the years 1999-2008 did not result in a decrease in the mortality rate. High Russian mortality is the result not only of “normally” treatable diseases, such as tuberculosis, but also of lifestyle: drinking vodka, smoking cigarettes and AIDS. Every year, 500,000 people die due to alcohol in Russia. This applies to both women and men. The drug problem is also huge, as the prices of drugs are lower than in Western countries.

Russia is also unable to cope with the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases and cancer, which are the main cause of death. The problem is not only the lack of sufficient funds for health care (until mid-2005, about 4.2 per cent of GDP was allocated for this purpose, while in rich European countries it was on average 8-10 per cent of GDP), but also the country’s unfavorable social and economic situation, relatively low position of health and a long life on the Russian list of priorities, poverty, lack of responsibility for one’s own health, and bad habits.[12]

”

Russia's low fertility rate, aging population, projected working population and its potential impact on its economy

Russian woman in a dress.

Russia's population is expected to age significantly over the next few decades.[13]

The World Bank's article Searching for a New Silver Age in Russia: The Drivers and Impacts of Population Aging states:

“ Over the next few decades, Russia’s population is expected to age significantly. Some of this aging will be due to the increasing life expectancy, which is a significant achievement. However, this trend, together with low fertility and the retirement of large numbers of people born in the 1950s are expected to reduce the working-age population by as much as 14 percent over the next 35 years.

A decline in Russia’s working-age population will certainly pose serious social and economic challenges – but it can also offer important opportunities.

Pessimistic forecasts about the impacts of aging often assume that current behavior and institutions will continue unchanged in a future, older society. For example, since the early 1990s, increases in the working-age population have accounted for about one third of the growth in per capita GDP. Over the next few decades, without changes in individual behavior and government policies, a rise in the dependency ratio could reduce growth by 2 percentage points per year.

One important channel is savings, which could plunge if lifecycle-based savings rates remain unchanged as Russia’s population ages. Aging could also substantially increase spending on health care and pensions, leading to protracted deficits that boost today’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 20% of GDP to over 100% by 2050.

A more optimistic view is that individuals and firms will adapt to aging, and that policies can promote and speed up this adaptation process.[14]

”

An excerpt from the abstract for the 2016 journal article Aging in Russia published in the journal The Gerontologist states:

“ Russia has always been at an intersection of Western and Eastern cultures, with its dozens of ethnic groups and different religions. The federal structure of the country also encompasses a variety of differences in socioeconomic status across its regions... Social policy and legislation address the needs of older adults by providing social services, support, and protection. The retirement system in Russia enables adults to retire at relatively young ages—55 and 60 years for women and men, respectively—but also to maintain the option of continuing their professional career or re-establishing a career after a “vocation” period. Though in recent years the government has faced a range of political issues, affecting the country’s economy in general, budget funds for support of aging people have been maintained.[15] ”

Better demographics and a country being a stronger power

USA and demographics and it being favorable to other major powers

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"Then Jesus said to him, ‘Put your sword back into its place; for all who take the sword will perish by the sword.'" (Matthew 26:52).

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Vladimir Putin

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War in Ukraine

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References

  1. ↑ Putin's demographic failure in Russia, LeMonde, September 29, 2023
  2. ↑ Population Could Fall to 130Mln by 2046 – Rosstat, Moscow Times, January 10, 2024
  3. ↑ Is Russia dying out? Our interview with a demographer, The Bell website, July 2023
  4. ↑ Is Russia dying out? Our interview with a demographer, The Bell website, July 2023
  5. ↑ Russia’s population is in a historic decline as emigration, war and a plunging birth rate form a ‘perfect storm’, Fortune magazine, 2022
  6. ↑ "Until the end of the century, we will be enough." Demographer Salavat Abylkalikov - about whether Russia is dying and what to do about it, Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov
  7. ↑ Russia Seeks Africans to Fix its Workforce Shortages, Center for European Policy Analysis, March 9, 2024
  8. ↑ Oreanda-News agency - About page
  9. ↑ Oreanda-News agency - About page
  10. ↑ In Russia, the shortage of personnel in the oil and gas industry was assessed, Oreana News, 2023
  11. ↑ Why Is Russia So Unproductive?, Moscow Times, 2019
  12. ↑ Demographic crisis in Russia by Adam Gwiazda, 2019
  13. ↑ Searching for a New Silver Age in Russia: The Drivers and Impacts of Population Aging, World Bank, 2022
  14. ↑ Searching for a New Silver Age in Russia: The Drivers and Impacts of Population Aging, World Bank, 2022
  15. ↑ Aging in Russia by Olga Strizhitskaya, PhD,The Gerontologist, Volume 56, Issue 5, October 2016, Pages 795–799, https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/gnw007
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