Essay: The USA is outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production. The best is yet to come

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In August of 2023, the USA was outproducing Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production.[1]. The best is yet to come![2][3]

The U.S. Energy Information System reported in 2023: "Strong continuing international demand for petroleum and other liquids will sustain U.S. production above 2022 levels through 2050, according to most of the cases we examined in our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023). We project that the United States will continue to be an integral part of global oil markets and a significant source of supply in these cases, as increased exports of finished products support U.S. production."[4]

See also: Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies

The U.S. Energy Information System reported in 2023:

Strong continuing international demand for petroleum and other liquids will sustain U.S. production above 2022 levels through 2050, according to most of the cases we examined in our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023). We project that the United States will continue to be an integral part of global oil markets and a significant source of supply in these cases, as increased exports of finished products support U.S. production.

In our AEO2023, we explore long-term energy trends in the United States and present an outlook for energy markets through 2050. We use different scenarios, or cases, to understand how varying assumptions about the future could affect energy trends. These cases include:

The Reference case, which serves as a baseline, or benchmark, case. It reflects laws and regulations adopted through mid-November 2022 but assumes no new laws or regulations in the future. It also assumes the Brent crude oil price reaches $101 per barrel (b) (in 2022 dollars) by 2050.

The High Oil and Gas Supply case, which assumes 50% more ultimate recovery per well for tight oil, tight gas, or shale gas in the United States compared with the Reference case. It also assumes 50% more undiscovered U.S. oil and natural gas resources and 50% more effective technological improvements than in the Reference case.

The Low Oil and Gas Supply case, which assumes 50% less ultimate recovery per well and undiscovered sources, and 50% more effective technological advancement than the Reference case.

The High Oil Price case, which assumes the price of Brent crude oil reaches $190/b (in 2022 dollars) by 2050.

The Low Oil Price case, which assumes the price of Brent crude oil reaches $51/b (in 2022 dollars) by 2050.[5]

2024: K.T. McFarland, former Deputy National Security Advisor under the Trump Administration: Donald Trump DOESN'T want to abandon Ukraine 'he wants to BANKRUPT Russia' by ramping up oil and gas production

K.T. McFarland served as Deputy National Security Advisor under Michael Flynn in 2017 during the Donald Trump administration.

2024 Video: K.T. McFarland, Deputy National Security Advisor under the Trump Administration: Donald Trump DOESN'T want to abandon Ukraine 'he wants to BANKRUPT Russia' by ramping up oil and gas production

The Oil and Gas Workers’ Association has endorsed former president Donald Trump as their champion in the 2024 presidential election

In 2023, "the Oil and Gas Workers’ Association (OGWA) endorsed former president Donald Trump as their champion in next year’s presidential election.... According to the OGWA,... “President Trump has been the most pro-American Oil & Gas Workers president ever, with 11.3 million jobs supported by our vital industry in 2019. Under President Trump's leadership, our country became energy dominant. The booming economy of the Trump years benefitted every American”.[6]

See: Donald Trump promises to drill for oil, close southern border on first day as president

Donald Trump had Vladimir Putin ‘over a barrel’ with his aggressive energy policy.[7]

It is just a matter of time before another Republican president will be elected in the USA.

Unfortunately for Russia, it does not have a well-diversified economy.[8]

Donald Trump said that he would reverse a decision by President Joe Biden to cancel oil and gas leases in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Donald Trump, "in a televised interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity Tuesday night, said that he would reverse a decision by President Joe Biden to cancel oil and gas leases in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge."[9]

"We have such incredible wealth under our feet." - Donald Trump on the United States wealth of oil resources.[10]

Alaska and energy resources

Alaska-oil.jpg
Oil-symbol.jpg

See also: Alaska

Alaska has vast energy resources but low energy demand. Major oil and gas reserves are found in the Alaska North Slope (ANS) and Cook Inlet basins. The Alaska North Slope contains 14 of the 100 largest oil fields in the United States, and two of the largest natural gas fields. The North Slope's Prudhoe Bay field is the largest oil field in the country. Substantial coal deposits are found in Alaska's bituminous, sub-bituminous, and lignite coal basins. Alaska's numerous rivers offer some of the highest hydroelectric power potential in the country, and large swaths of the Alaskan coastline offer wind and geothermal energy potential. The oil and gas industry dominates the Alaskan economy, and production activities drive state energy demand. Nevertheless, overall state energy demand is low.[11]

Alaska is the second-ranked oil-producing state (after Texas), if output from the Federal Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) is excluded from the state totals. Nearly all of Alaska's oil production takes place on the North Slope. The Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) transports crude oil from the frozen North Slope to the warm-water Port of Valdez, on Alaska's southern coast. From Valdez, tankers ship the ANS crude oil primarily to refineries in California and Washington State. Those refineries are designed to process the intermediate, sour (high-sulfur) crude oil from the ANS. Alaskan crude oil production has been in decline since 1988, when output peaked at over 2 million barrels per day. However, experts believe that large oil and gas reserves in the state remain untapped, and some have called for the federal government to open more public lands, including the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, for oil exploration and drilling.

Demand for finished petroleum products in Alaska is low. Although Alaska has six refineries, most of them are “topping” plants that strip away lighter products from the TAPS heavy crude oil stream for internal refinery use. State motor gasoline demand is primarily met by refineries in Kenai and near Fairbanks. The use of oxygenated motor gasoline is required in the Fairbanks and Anchorage areas during their winter months. Jet fuel consumption in Alaska is high compared to other States.

Due to harsh weather conditions that persist throughout most of the year, Alaska's oil infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to weather-related accidents and disruptions. The worst accident was not weather-related, however. It occurred in March 1989, when the tank vessel Exxon Valdez struck Bligh Reef and spilled at least 260 thousand barrels of oil into the Prince William Sound (some estimates put the figure at 30 million gallons, or over 700 thousand barrels[12]). The cause of the accident is at least partially due to navigation errors of fatigued crew members, some of who were allegedly drunk. Other factors contributing to the accident were navigational equipment failures, deliberate breach of navigational protocol, and an inadequate number of crew members on the vessel,[13][14] and these findings led to new regulations and recommended changes in the oil industry, specifically with regards to transporting oil.

The first, second and third shale revolutions in the United States: Industrial Expansion

United States shale revolution - General resources

Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies

Flag of Russia

See also: Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies

In 2023, OilPrice.com reported in an article entitled Analysts Predict 42% Decline In Russian Oil Production By 2035:

But Moscow cannot continue defying the odds indefinitely. BP Plc (NYSE: BP) has predicted that the country’s output is likely to take a big hit over the long-term, with production declining 25%-42% by 2035. BP says that Russia's oil output could decrease from 12 million barrels per day in 2019 to 7-9 million bpd in 2035 thanks to the curtailment of new promising projects, limited access to foreign technologies as well as a high rate of reduction in existing operating assets.

In contrast, BP says that OPEC will become even more dominant as the years roll on, with the cartel’s share in global production increasing to 45%-65% by 2050 from just over 30% currently. Bad news for the bulls: BP remains bearish about the long-term prospects for oil, saying demand for oil is likely to plateau over the next 10 years and then decline to 70-80 million bpd by 2050.

That said, Russia might still be able to avoid a sharp decline in production because many of the assets of oil companies that exited the country were abandoned or sold to local management teams who retained critical expertise.[15]

For more information, please see: Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies

Introductory lessons in economics for hyper Russophiles with a poor knowledge of economics who pretend the current falling oil prices are not bad for Russia

“Russia’s economy is entering a long-term regression,” predicted Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian Central Bank official who left the country shortly after the invasion. - Wall Street Journal, March 2023[16]

See also: Russia's economy will enter a long-term decline

How stable is the Russian oil industry?

Watch the video: How Stable Is the Russian Oil Industry?

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References

  1. US Oil Production Hits Records
  2. Donald Trump promises to drill for oil, close southern border on first day as president
  3. The Oil And Gas Workers’ Association Endorses Trump For 2024 Vote
  4. U.S. production of petroleum and other liquids to be driven by international demand
  5. U.S. production of petroleum and other liquids to be driven by international demand
  6. The Oil And Gas Workers’ Association Endorses Trump For 2024 Vote
  7. Trump has Putin ‘over a barrel’ with aggressive energy policy, defense of the West, CNBC, 2017
  8. Diversifying Russia, European Bank
  9. Trump Pledges to Expand Drilling to Pay for Senior Benefits, Bloomberg News, 2023
  10. Trump Pledges to Expand Drilling to Pay for Senior Benefits, Bloomberg News, 2023
  11. See Energy Information Administration, State Report 2009
  12. Bluemink, Elizabeth. "Size of Exxon spill remains disputed." June 15, 2010. Anchorage Daily News. http://www.adn.com/2010/06/05/1309722/size-of-exxon-spill-remains-disputed.html
  13. Alaska Oil Spill Commission. "Spill: The Wreck of the Exxon Valdez: Implications for Safe Transport of Oil." February, 1990. http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/noaa_documents/NOAA_related_docs/oil_spills/spill_wreck_ExxonValdez_1990.pdf
  14. Reprint of pages 5-14 of the AOSC reference, in an easier to read form. http://www.evostc.state.ak.us/facts/details.cfm
  15. Analysts Predict 42% Decline In Russian Oil Production By 2035, OilPrice.com
  16. Russia’s Economy Is Starting to Come Undone, Wall Street Journal, 2023