Essay: Vladimir Putin's foolish decision to launch an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022
I wrote these essays which discuss some of Russia's biggest problems:
In addition, I wrote these essays about the war in Ukraine:
Contents
- 1 Russia's biggest problems. The war in Ukraine made Russia's biggest problems worse
- 2 Russia's failed attempts to be in the first ranks of the great powers through authoritarian rule and Russian imperialism
- 3 Did the February 2020 invasion of Ukraine by Putin launch a just war? No, it did not.
- 4 Ukrainian War Cripples Russia Forever!
- 5 Why December 2021 was more pivotal than the month of April 2022 and why February 2022 was more pivotal than April 2022
- 6 Essays on Russia
- 7 User:Conservative's essays
- 8 References
Russia's biggest problems. The war in Ukraine made Russia's biggest problems worse
Russia's biggest problems are:
1. It's subreplacement level of births is helping to cause a demographic crisis. Putin has admitted this is a major crisis. The war in Ukraine is making this problem worse (See: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse).
Russia has some significant social problems such as alcoholism, high divorce rate, health issues and domestic violence which is making its demographic crisis worse. The war in Ukraine is making these problems worse.
The main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis according to the Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov
The Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov says the main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis will be the following:
“ | According to the average version of the UN forecast, Russia's population by 2050 may be about 133.4 million people, which is 14th in the world and below countries such as Egypt, the Philippines, and Mexico. But if Russia goes not according to the average, but according to the low option that is quite likely at the present time, then with a population of 123.2 million people we will drop to 16th place and will already be neighbors with Tanzania and Vietnam. Thus, the price of switching to the low scenario could be -10 million people, as well as a decrease in the place in the top countries in terms of population. Moreover, the low version of the UN forecast did not include too low or even negative migration growth.
A smaller population means a country's lower economic potential, a shrinking domestic market, worsening demographic problems and an aging population, as well as a decrease in the country's geopolitical power. The population size still correlates with the weight in international relations, the ability to promote their interests on the world stage. And the declining population for the largest country in the world may cause some neighbors on the continent, especially the eastern ones, to be tempted to solve their internal growing problems by some external adventures. But will Russia find anyone and how to fight back, will there be allies?[1] |
” |
Articles and videos related to the war in Ukraine making Russia's demographic crisis even worse
- Putin's demographic failure in Russia, LeMonde, September 29, 2023
- The War in Ukraine: Exacerbating Russia’s Demographic Crisis, Institute for National Security Studies, August 22, 2023
- Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die, The Telegraph, February 2023
- Dramatic Population Drop in Russia, as War, COVID and Emigration Exacerbate Declining Births, 6/03/2023
Videos:
- Russia Facing Population Disaster - Demographic Crisis, Employee Shortages & Economic Crisis - Video

2. Russia is experiencing a brain drain of the most talented/technical/educationally advanced people leaving Russia - including many millionaires leaving Russia. Putin has admitted that Russia's labor productivity rate is a major problem that needs to be tackled. The war in Ukraine is making this problem worse (See: Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia).
3. The most easiest oil to access is going to run out leaving the more expensive oil to access remaining. Russia knows that it should diversify its economy. The war in Ukraine is a big distraction (See: Russian oil: Lower future production/profits due to future higher extraction costs and other inefficiencies).
4. When you are a big seller of commodities such as oil and gas, the last thing you want to do is artificially lower your market size. Although the war in Ukraine is artificially raising the price of oil, Russia is now discounting its oil in its sale of oil to China, India, Turkey, etc. Furthermore, China's economy is starting to be in trouble so Russia depending on oil sales to China to a high degree is not a good thing (See: Russia's economy and gas and oil profits will be BADLY damaged when China's economy declines and China's economic decline will contribute to Russia's decline).
5. Russia has a long history of corruption and authoritarian leadership. Long term, these types of societies don't fare well in the modern world (Soviet Union, China's growing economic/social problems, etc.). The war in Ukraine is making Russia more authoritarian and not less (See: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian and What drives Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin? and Why has the West been so successful?).
Key additional points:
1. Russia is a nuclear power with a much bigger population than Ukraine. Russia also has a lot of industrial capacity. Furthermore, Professor John Mearsheimer has described Europe as a "museum" due to its aging population. Bottom line: Europe's aging population was not itching to invade Russia.
2. Russia is a very large country with a lot of natural resources. Gaining additional war-torn land in Ukraine is not fulfilling a vital need of Russia. Furthermore, this war has caused Finland, etc. to join NATO.
3. Russia’s economy is now completely driven by the war in Ukraine – it cannot afford to lose, but nor can it afford to win, The Conversation, February 22, 2024
Once the war in Ukraine ends, the transition from a war economy to a civilian economy is going to cause some economic pain. Wars are generally not good for a nation's long-term economy because things like education, increasing productivity rate, infrastructure spending, health care, etc all take a hit.
Russia's failed attempts to be in the first ranks of the great powers through authoritarian rule and Russian imperialism
Did the February 2020 invasion of Ukraine by Putin launch a just war? No, it did not.
See also: Just War Theory and Russian war crimes in Ukraine
Under jus ad bellum, only legitimate authorities can wage war for the right reasons (usually this means a defensive war, or a war of defending the weak against a violent oppressor [2]) and only as a last resort if every other peaceful means to avert war have been used to no avail. A just war can only be waged if there is a serious evil that needs to be stopped. Furthermore, there must be a realistic chance that the evil can be stopped without starting a greater evil. If this happens the war reaches a just conclusion. A war started for just reasons and justly waged may still reach an unjust conclusion.
The war in Ukraine has caused a big amount of bad consequences for Russia, Ukraine and the world at large (food prices around the world, etc.). It has caused a greater evil than the previous state of affairs.

Just War Theory is a Christian theory of moral ethics that goes back to Saint Augustine and St. Thomas Aquinas.
How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics.
Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine
“ | Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[3] | ” |

Ukrainian War Cripples Russia Forever!
- Ukrainian War Cripples Russia Forever!, video, Military Show, 2025
Why December 2021 was more pivotal than the month of April 2022 and why February 2022 was more pivotal than April 2022
Below are resources on why December 2021 was more pivotal than the month of April 2022 and why Febuary 2022 was more pivotal than April 2022:
Essays on Russia
Russia

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian
User:Conservative's essays
References
- ↑ "Until the end of the century, we will be enough." Demographer Salavat Abylkalikov - about whether Russia is dying and what to do about it, Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov
- ↑ Proverbs 24:11 and commentaries; see also Psalm 82:4 and Job 29:17.
- ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
- ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website