Essay: We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Role in World History

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"Russians, for example, estimated that their country was responsible for 61% of world history." - Source: We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Nation’s Role in World History, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2018, Pages 521-528

Map data derived from: We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Nation’s Role in World History, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2018, Pages 521-528

Academic research

Russia getting pummeled in wars in Russian history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about

The Encycylopedia Britannica website notes: "Russo-Japanese War, (1904–05), military conflict in which a victorious Japan forced Russia to abandon its expansionist policy in East Asia, thereby becoming the first Asian power in modern times to defeat a European power."[1]

See: Russia getting pummeled in wars in Russian history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about

See also: Russia getting pummeled in wars in Russian history that hyper Russophiles will not tell you about

Throughout its long history, from its formation as the medieval state Kievan Rus' in the 9th century to the Russian Federation as we know it presently, Russia has seen some bitter military defeats. Some of these have had devastating consequences, resulting, for example, in the loss of large swathes of territory, and even threatening the country's very existence. So, what are Russia's greatest military thrashings?" (Source: Russia's greatest military defeats). Also, to better see the historical context of Russia's wars, I highly recommend reading the Tufts University article at: The Long History of Russia and War.

The Encycylopedia Britannica website notes: "Russo-Japanese War, (1904–05), military conflict in which a victorious Japan forced Russia to abandon its expansionist policy in East Asia, thereby becoming the first Asian power in modern times to defeat a European power."[2]

Wars Russia lost, Russian military defeats and other defeats:

Articles on Russian nationalism

Russians and the notion of Russian exceptionalism

Vladimir Putin: "The borders of Russia do not end"



Vladimir's Putin's propaganda machine

Vladimir Putin at a conference.

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

The below videos provide information on Vladimir Putin's propaganda machine:

Journal article: The Myth of Russian Exceptionalism: Russia as a Civilization and Its Uniqueness in Aleksandr G. Dugin’s Thought

Russia recently ranked 82nd in the world by education spending. Russia's economy is that of a shrinking, aging, and poorly qualified population.

See also: Russia's economy is that of a shrinking, aging, and poorly qualified population

The flag of Russia.

In 2023, annual sales of industrial robots in Russia didn't exceed 2,300 pieces, whereas Japan sold as many as 38,000 with a much smaller population.[3]

On December 15, 2023, The Insider noted:

The nationwide mobilization (and the resulting outflux of qualified professionals abroad) exacerbated the crisis in the Russian labor market, already profoundly affected by the demographic decline. Russia's workforce shortage will only increase, experts warn, and may reach 4 million people by 2030. Developed economies compensate for insufficient human resources by driving labor productivity (using such tools as AI, among others), but Russia is also faced with the degradation of industrial processes due to international sanctions. Igor Lipsits, Doctor of Economics, explains how Russia's government policy has caused a labor market catastrophe and why the deteriorating educational system cannot remedy the situation...

As early as 15 years ago, when the 2020 Strategy was in the making, the debate was ongoing as to whether defense spending should be cut in favor of supporting education to prevent its decay. No practical steps were taken, though, and Russia currently ranks 82nd in the world by education spending...

Since 2006, Russia’s working-age population has shrunk by 13 million.

That is, this category is going through a rapid decline. The resulting workforce shortage will cost Russia 1-2% of its GDP each year, according to a market study by Yakov & Partners (former partners of McKinsey in Russia)...

From 2018 to 2023, the number of vacancies in Russia has grown by 80%, exacerbating the shortage of human resources. By 2030, the gap will have reached 2–4 million employees. The most affected category is professionals with vocational training (1.1–2.2 million people). The shortage of specialists with a high education will vary from 700,000 to 1.4 million.

Russia is not the only nation facing depopulation. Japan, which has it the hardest, has chosen to remedy the situation through robotic engineering. By contrast, Russia is among the planet's laggards in terms of production automation, with its robotic automation pace equaling one-seventieth of the global average...

According to the Center for Education Quality Assessment under Russia’s Ministry of Education, around 10% of Russia's schools offer subpar tuition. That’s an optimistic assessment, considering that testing has revealed 22% of Russia's secondary school students to be low-performing. They struggle to grasp the meaning of texts and cannot objectively assess themselves. What further education path is available to such students? Sixty-six percent enter various vocational schools, 26% go to high school anyway, and 7% call it quits. They often consider joining the military as a viable option, ending up in the war with Ukraine, in which Russia is losing both its population and genetic pool.

As a result, 25-28% of Russia's adult population is more of a burden to the nation, only preventing its economic development...

The quality of schooling has grown even poorer, with Russian schools ranking 31st–33rd among 79 countries, according to 2018 PISA tests in several fields. In 2022, Russia didn't participate in the study due to the war.

The quality of higher education, including the PhD level, has also dropped. Thus, from 2010 to 2021, the number of colleges offering postgraduate programs dropped by 3.4 times; the number of available Ph.D. positions decreased by 1.9 times; the Ph.D. graduation rate plunged by 2.4 times, and the number of Ph.D. students who graduated by defending a thesis fell even lower, by 6.4 times.[4]

The Insider further noted:

According to pre-war data by the Russian Association of Robotics (today's indicators are likely even lower), annual sales of industrial robots in Russia didn't exceed 2,300 pieces, whereas Japan sold as many as 38,000 with a much smaller population. Russia ranks even lower than Mexico and Thailand. At the end of the day, Russia is both losing human resources and failing to replace them with robots; as its population is shrinking, so is the share of young workers capable of amassing human capital.

Demographic forecasts suggest that by 2031, the share of the most productive workers aged 20-39 will have shrunk by 25% compared to 2020. Even by 2035, this indicator won't have rebounded to its 2020 level. As a result, Russia's economy is that of a shrinking, aging, and poorly qualified population.[5]

Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia

See also: Low labor productivity is one of the most acute and important problems facing Russia

During his annual phone-in with the public in 2019, President Vladimir Putin described low productivity as “one of the most acute and important” problems facing Russia.[6]

Investopedia says about the importance of labor productivity to an economy, "Labor productivity is largely driven by investment in capital, technological progress, and human capital development. Labor productivity is directly linked to improved standards of living in the form of higher consumption."[7] According the Yahoo Finance: "According to Yahoo Finance: "Efficiency in production, also coined as productivity, is one of the major driving forces behind economic resilience in a country."[8]

In 2023, the USA was over 200% more productive in terms of labor productivity than Russia when measured using purchasing power parity.[9][10] See: The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world - significantly higher than both China and Russia

The Moscow Times indicated in 2019:

During his annual phone-in with the public in June this year, President Vladimir Putin described low productivity as “one of the most acute and important” problems facing Russia.

Economists agree. Russia is one of the least productive moderately rich countries in the world, ranking 39th out of the 42 monitored by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). In cash terms, Russia produces $24.61 in GDP for every hour worked, half the $48.15 OECD average.

“Boosting productivity is key to increasing Russia’s GDP growth,” said Jakob Suwalski, lead analyst at Scope Ratings. “However, meeting the challenge is easier said than done.”

Productivity is one of the most-watched indicators of an economy’s long-term prospects, measuring how much GDP is produced for every hour worked. As Putin highlighted, higher productivity means higher wages, since the more value workers create, the more they can be paid.

The latest Russian attempt to solve its low productivity problem is its ambitious National Projects public spending program. Alongside a string of new infrastructure construction, the state has promised to throw 52 billion rubles ($800 million) worth of cheap loans, export promotion and training courses specifically at the productivity issue.

But economists point to a cocktail of “state capitalism,” corruption, low investment, poor equipment and unfavorable demographics to explain Russia’s malaise — drawbacks the $1-per-person-per-year government scheme will struggle to address.[11]

On February 7, 2024, Reuters reported:

According to Rosstat, Russia's labour productivity index, one of Putin's key national development goals, fell 3.6% year-on-year in 2022, its steepest annual fall since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009.

Labour Minister Anton Kotyakov has said Russia needs to increase labour productivity in order to become more technologically self-sufficient. Labour productivity data for 2023 will not be published until late-2024, but the authorities' warnings about manpower shortages suggest there was no rebound in that figure last year.[12]

The RBC Group, a Russian media group headquartered in Moscow, reported on December 4, 2023 in their article Experts estimate the level of Russian GDP losses due to personnel shortages:

According to experts, in order to eliminate the deficit, it will be necessary to achieve labor productivity growth of at least 2.4% per year - this is twice as fast as the historical level (the average rate over the last ten years is 1.2%) and higher than the forecast (for 2023-2026 it does not exceed 2%). Over the period since 2018, the maximum increase in productivity was observed in 2021 (3.7%), last year it fell by 3.6%.

“The growing need for qualified personnel is most noticeable in the regions, especially if you pay attention to the increase in the proposed salary. It is worth noting that in the regions the proposed salary for qualified personnel is growing faster than in Moscow,” noted Vladimir Dzhuma, director of the Center for Digital Transformation and Data Analysis of the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor.[13]

Russia's Labour Productivity Growth from March 1996 to December 2023 (Source: CEICADATA.com)[14]

Other factors dampening Russia's labor productivity rate

Russia has seen a sharp spike in corporate bankruptcies, according to a report that comes as Vladimir Putin looks to tax companies more to pay for his social program and the sanctions-hit economy continues to face turbulence.[15]

See also: Russia's unfriendly business environment

In 2018, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) states concerning Russia's low labor productivity:

Labour productivity is a key precondition for high growth of output, employment and wages and central to long-term growth in living standards...

Earnings quality is close to the bottom of OECD countries, partly due to low labour productivity resulting from a low capital stock in the economy. More than 30% of workers face high job demands with few job resources to meet these demands...

Sanctions and other import barriers have hampered technology transfers from abroad. A poor business climate, in particular weak property rights, impedes innovation.[16]

See also: Russia's unfriendly business environment

The University of Birmingham reported in 2022:

The World Intellectual Property Organisation publishes a Global Innovation Index based on an assessment of national innovation inputs and outputs. In 2021, Russia was ranked in 45th place after Vietnam and Thailand, with the United States being third and the UK fourth in the ranking. Russia’s ranking highlights that Russia is a low-tech nation.

Russia's position in the Global Innovation Index is partly explained by the country's failure to invest in research and development (R&D). In 2019, the US spent 3.1% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) on R&D whilst Russia spent 1%. This can be calculated based on R&D expenditure per capita and for the US this was $1,866 compared to Russia’s expenditure of $263. It is estimated that Russia is spending $900 million a day on the Ukraine war. Russia, calculates the return on this investment in terms of territory but much greater economic and political returns would come from investing in R&D.[17]

The article Russian Power in Decline indicates:

Russia’s “high education, low human capital” paradox does not end with problematic health: it shows up acutely in the country’s “knowledge production” deficit, too. Nowadays, long-term economic progress depends critically on improving productivity through knowledge — technology, management and so on — rather than through the accumulation of physical capital. But, oddly for a well-educated, mediumhigh- income country, Russia is terrible at it.

The U.S. Patent Office (now known as the Patent and Trade Office, or PTO) was established in the 1830s. But nearly half of its patent awards and well over half of its awards to foreign inventers have been granted just since the year 2000. Of the 2.5 million patents awarded to foreigners between 2000 and 2020, applicants from Russia took home fewer than 6,600 — which was a smaller fraction of the total than had been awarded to the USSR during the Cold War. In the 2002-2020 period, Russia (with the world’s ninth-largest population) ranked 25th in PTO awards, behind tiny Norway and Finland.

Wait, this gets better — I mean worse. The Russian Federation’s rate of PTO awards is currently on a par with the state of Alabama. But Alabama’s population is just 5 million — while Russia’s is over 140 million, very nearly 30 times larger. The contrast with high-tech California is truly remarkable. Russia’s population is over three and a half times larger, while in 2020 California produced over 80 times more patents — that’s total, not per capita.

Another way to look at Russia’s underperformance in patents is to compare patent activity with educational attainment. Belgium’s 2020 “yield” of international patent applications per person with some college attendance was 15 times higher than Russia’s, while Austria’s was 23 times higher. By this reckoning, over 50 countries — not just Western countries and China, but Saudi Arabia and South Africa — came out ahead of Russia.

This underperformance is reflected in foreign trade. In 2019, Russia’s share of global economic output adjusted for purchasing power was 3.1 percent. Yet Russia generated only 1 percent of total global service-sector exports. Note that service exports really amount to trade in human skills — unlike merchandise trade, which is in commodities or natural resources and thus generally less skills-intensive. Curiously, given Russia’s wellknown expertise in software, it even fares poorly in IT exports, where its 2019 share of the global market was only slightly ahead of the Philippines.

Adding to the shortfall, the Ukraine invasion seems to be affecting the talent base for what there is of a knowledge economy. In the initial weeks of the war, some estimated that as many as 200,000 highly skilled Russians fled their country — many of them IT specialists. Depending on the course of that war and on Western sanctions, the bleed of talent may or may not be staunched when the guns fall silent. But it is difficult to envision a scenario in which Russia ever becomes a magnet for the best and brightest.[18]

In 2023, MIT Technology Review stated in its article How Russia killed its tech industry:

In the months after the invasion began, Russia saw a mass exodus of IT workers. According to government figures, about 100,000 IT specialists left Russia in 2022, or some 10% of the tech workforce—a number that is likely an underestimate. Alongside those exits, more than 1,000 foreign firms curtailed their operations in the country, driven in part by the broadest sanctions ever to be imposed on a major economy.

It has now been over a year since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, with more than 8,300 recorded civilian deaths and counting. The tech workers who left everything behind to flee Russia warn that the country is well on its way to becoming a village: cut off from the global tech industry, research, funding, scientific exchanges, and critical components. Meanwhile Yandex, one of its biggest tech successes, has begun fragmenting, selling off lucrative businesses to VKontakte (VK), a competitor controlled by state-owned companies.[19]

Stratfor reported in 2015:

Russian innovation seems poised to continue its gradual decline into obsolescence through neglect. Even if Russia's economy were healthy, it would be an uphill struggle for Russian research and development because of the difficulty of attracting and maintaining talent.

One recent event could very well be marked by history as the proverbial nail in the coffin of Russian research: Dmitry Zimin's Dynasty Foundation was deemed a foreign agent on May 26. Zimin left the country by June 5, and it is uncertain when he will return. The oligarch has long been a supporter, if not the banner carrier, of innovation within Russia. He developed telecommunications firm VimpelCom before the fall of the Soviet Union and brought modernity to Russia during and after the collapse. Zimin was seen as one of the last vestiges still capable of attracting thinkers to the country. Although he has typically held opposing views with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Zimin previously had remained unscathed by Kremlin political upheaval.[20]

Russian Federation ranks 51st among the 132 economies featured in the Global Innovation Index 2023.[21][22]

Russian Federation ranks 7th among the 33 upper-middle income group economies.[23][24]

Russian Federation ranks 31st among the 39 economies in Europe.[25][26]

For more information, please see:

*Global Innovation Index 2023 - Russia

*Global Innovation Index 2023. Innovation in the face of uncertainty

Russia's unfriendly business environment and low labor productivity

See also: Russia's unfriendly business environment

The Kennan Indicates concerning Russia's unfriendly business environment:

Albats suggested that democracy should be viewed as a commodity that needs to have buyers. In order for democracy to develop in Russia, there must be a class of "consumers of democratic politics," consisting primarily of people involved in small and medium businesses. Unfortunately, Albats warned, this constituency is in decline in Russia. The number of people employed in small and medium business has declined from a peak of 8.9 million in 1995 to only 6.3 million in 2001. At the same time, the proportion of bureaucrats relative to the population has been increasing: In the last days of the Soviet Union, there was one bureaucrat for every 75.6 citizens, and in Russia today there is one bureaucrat for every 49.6 citizens.

Thriving in a system rife with corruption and little accountability, Soviet-trained bureaucrats have stifled the growth of small businesses in Russia, according to Albats. She noted that the majority of regulations existing in Russia today were issued not by the Duma or the President, but by various state agencies—between 1991 and 2001, Russian federal ministries imposed 1474 regulations on business, compared with 156 passed by the legislature. Albats contended that bureaucrats find it easier to control several large businesses than many small businesses, and have set up a regulatory framework to reflect that preference.[27]

Many small businesses work in their businesses and Russian small and medium business people are burdened with a lot of pointless regulations to deal with.

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

Articles and videos on Russia's labor shortages

Videos:

Does Russia have more national narcissism than the USA? How exceptional do Russians think their nation is?

See also: Does Russia have more national narcissism than the USA? How exceptional do Russians think their nation is?

Consider this excerpt from the 2018 journal article We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Nation’s Role in World History published in the Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition:

Russians, for example, estimated that their country was responsible for 61% of world history. U.S. students provided an estimate of 30%, quite high in some regards, but modest compared to other countries. (e.g., 39% by Malaysians). Country-level estimates varied widely, ranging from 11% (Switzerland) to 61% (Russia). The total estimate (summing for all countries) was 1156%. We argue that students’ exaggerated estimates provide evidence for national narcissism and may be caused by several mechanisms, such as the availability heuristic—when students think about world history, they mostly think about the history of their country and thus assume their country must be important.

Citizens from the United States, which has arguably been the leading world power since World War II but is a relatively recent country in world history, reported a mean contribution of 30%, which places the US in the middle of the pack.[28]

Is Russia exceptional? Is it's future bright? Nyet! Pride comes before the fall!

In 2023, Russia had the second highest alcoholism rate in the world as far as it being a problem with both genders.[29] In addition, in 2023 Russia had the highest alcoholism rate for males.[30] See also: Alcoholism in Russia

In 2019, it was reported that every year 500,000 people die due to alcohol in Russia.[31]

In 2023, Business Insider reported: "Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows."[32]

Jerusalem Post: Many Russian troop deaths tied to alcohol, gun accidents, hypothermia -UK, 2023

Question: Is Russia exceptional? Is it's future bright? Nyet! Pride comes before the fall!

"Pride goes before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall." - Wise King Solomon, Proverbs 16:18 (NRSV)

Below are some essays which clearly show that Russia is not exceptional:

International politics and geopolitics essays

General essays about world politics

Essays about the United States, China and Russia

User:Conservative's essays

Notes

  1. Russo-Japanese War
  2. Russo-Japanese War
  3. The “no human” factor: How Russia’s workforce shortage rolls back its economic development
  4. The “no human” factor: How Russia’s workforce shortage rolls back its economic development
  5. The “no human” factor: How Russia’s workforce shortage rolls back its economic development
  6. Why Is Russia So Unproductive?, Moscow Times, 2019
  7. Labor Productivity: What It Is, How to Calculate & Improve It, Investopedia
  8. 25 Most Productive Countries Per Capita, Yahoo Finance
  9. Statistics on Labour Productivity, International Labor Organization website
  10. List of countries by labor productivity (Ranked using purchasing power parity)
  11. Why Is Russia So Unproductive?, Moscow Times, 2019
  12. Russia's GDP boost from military spending belies wider economic woes, Reuters, February 7, 2024
  13. Experts estimate the level of Russian GDP losses due to personnel shortages, RBC Group (Translated from Russian to English)
  14. Labour Productivity Growth,Source: CEICADATA.com
  15. Russia Hit By Tsunami of Bankruptcies, Newsweek, March 7, 2024
  16. How does Russia compare?, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
  17. Russia as a low-tech nation - severing the country from global supply chains with the Ukrainian war, University of Birmingham
  18. Russian Power in Decline by Nicholas Eberstadt, August 2022
  19. How Russia killed its tech industry, MIT Technology Review
  20. The Decline of Russian Innovation, Stratfor, 2015
  21. Global Innovation Index 2023. Innovation in the face of uncertainty
  22. Global Innovation Index 2023
  23. Global Innovation Index 2023. Innovation in the face of uncertainty
  24. Global Innovation Index 2023 - Russia
  25. Global Innovation Index 2023. Innovation in the face of uncertainty
  26. Global Innovation Index 2023 - Russia
  27. Bureaucrats and Russian Transition: The Politics of Accommodation
  28. We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their We Made History: Citizens of 35 Countries Overestimate Their Nation’s Role in World History, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, Volume 7, Issue 4, December 2018, Pages 521-528
  29. Alcoholism by country
  30. Alcoholism by country
  31. Demographic crisis in Russia by Adam Gwiazda, 2019
  32. Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows., Business Insider, 2023