Essay: Will New Zealand's secular population peak before or after 2050?

Will New Zealand's secular population as a percentage of its population peak before 2050 or after 2050? In the world as a whole, the percentage of atheists in the world is decreasing (see: Global atheism statistics). Eric Kaufmann told a secular audience in Australia: "The trends that are happening worldwide inevitably in an age of globalization are going to affect us." I am assuming the same applies to nearby New Zealand.

Jens Köhrsen, a professor for religion and economics at the Centre for Religion, Economy and Politics (ZRWP), wrote:

“

[ Jürgen Habermas ] ...argues that a new age, the age of post-secularity, has begun. Previously vastly secularized societies, like the highly developed countries of Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, would experience a new awareness of religion and attribute a new public role to religion. From now on, religion would constitute a relevant dialogue partner in the public debates of these societies (Habermas, 2008). Moreover, Habermas presents a normative argument about public religion: he recommends that post-secular societies should facilitate religious contributions to the public sphere. Religious reasoning could contribute to public debates about the ethical values of contemporaneous and future societies. Habermas believes that modern societies might find some answers to the moral questions of our time by listening to religion in public debates (Habermas, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2008). A similar position to that of Habermas is proposed by Leclerc (2001) and French sociologist Willaime (2004a, 2004b, 2005[1995]: 76-78, 2008). Willaime observes that even the highly secularized public and political sphere of France is exhibiting a new, more open attitude towards religion. The hypersecularity of France would stimulate a restructuration process of religion. According to Willaime, religion can form an important resource for public debates and be engaged in the identity construction process of individuals and collectives.

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Eric Kaufmann, a professor at Birkbeck College, University of London, using a wealth of demographic studies, argues that there will be a significant decline of global atheism in the 21st century which will impact the Western World.

Eric Kaufmann is a professor of politics at Birkbeck, University of London and author. His academic research specialty is how demographic changes affect religion/irreligion and politics.

In April 2010, Kaufmann, who is an agnostic, declared "the rate of secularisation has flattened to zero in most of Protestant Europe and France." Kaufmann also declared that secularism "appears exhausted and lacking in confidence".

On December 23, 2012, Kaufmann wrote:

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I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious. On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British.

”

For more information, please see: Labor shortages and desecularization projected to be faster in New Zealand in the 21st century

Regarding the Western World as a whole and the growth of the religious population in the West, Kaufmann wrote:

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...this paper claims that the developing world will not only never catch up, but that, ironically, it is the West which will increasingly come to resemble the developing world. Committed religious populations are growing in the West, and will reverse the march of secularism before 2050. The logic which is driving this apparently anti-modern development is demography, a shadowy historical force whose power multiplies exponentially with the modernisation process. Demography is about raw numbers, and, in an age of low mortality, its chief components are fertility and migration.

”

At a conference Kaufmann said of religious demographic projections concerning the 21st century:

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Part of the reason I think demography is very important, at least if we are going to speak about the future, is that it is the most predictable of the social sciences. ...if you look at a population and its age structure now. You can tell a lot about the future. ...So by looking at the relative age structure of different populations you can already say a lot about the future... ...Religious fundamentalism is going to be on the increase in the future and not just out there in the developing world..., but in the developed world as well.

”

See also: Religion and migration and Growth of religious fundamentalism

For additional information, please see: 21st century New Zealand: Irreligion, religion and religious immigrants

Europe may see secularism plateauing before New Zealand does

See also: European desecularization in the 21st century

Austria's census data permits demographers to perform analysis which indicates the secular population plateauing in Europe by 2050, or as early as 2021.

On December 23, 2012, Eric Kaufmann wrote:

“

I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious. On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British.

”

Concerning the future of religion/secularism in Europe, Professor Eric Kaufmann wrote in his 2010 book Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the 21st Century:

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We have performed these unprecedented analyses on several cases. Austria offers us a window into what the future holds. Its census question on religious affiliation permits us to perform cohort component projections, which show the secular population plateauing by 2050, or as early as 2021 if secularism fails to attract lapsed Christians and new Muslim immigrants at the same rate as it has in the past. (Goujon, Skirbekk et al. 2006). This task will arguably become far more difficult as the supply of nominal Christians dries up while more secularisation-resistant Muslims and committed rump Christians comprise an increasing share of the population.

”

Rate of secularization in Protestant Europe and France is now zero

In 2010, Eric Kaufmann reported that the rate of secularisation flattened to zero in most of Protestant Europe and France.

For additional information, please see: Growth of global desecularization

Britain may have hit "peak secular"

See also: UK and secularism

The Guardian published an article in 2017 entitled Nearly 50% are of no religion – but has UK hit ‘peak secular’?

The Guardian published an article in 2017 entitled Nearly 50% are of no religion – but has UK hit ‘peak secular’? which declared:

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But, Bullivant told the Observer that the “growth of no religion may have stalled”. After consistent decline, in the past few years the proportion of nones appears to have stabilised. “Younger people tend to be more non-religious, so you’d expect it to keep going – but it hasn’t. The steady growth of non-Christian religions is a contributing factor, but I wonder if everyone who is going to give up their Anglican affiliation has done so by now? We’ve seen a vast shedding of nominal Christianity, and perhaps it’s now down to its hardcore.

”

In the United States, the vast majority of individuals who are "Nones"/"no religion" (people who are not part of organized religion) believe in the existence of God. Fewer than 15% of the "nones" consider themselves atheists.

Conatus News reported in 2017:

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Church of England worshippers increase 0.8 per cent since 2009. The number of non-religious people falls from 50.65% to 48.6% Rise in Church of England worshippers likely due to resurgence in patriotism and pride in Christianity, a report has found According to a new report, for every person brought up in a non-religious household who becomes a churchgoer, 26 people raised as Christians now identify as non-believers. The study, which is based on an analysis of the British Social Attitudes Survey and the European Social Survey, reported that the proportion of non-religious in the UK hit a high of 50.6 per cent in 2009. However, it has been decreasing ever since and hit 48.6 per cent in 2015. However, the proportion of those who identify as Church of England worshippers has seen a slight increased from 16.3 per cent in 2009 to 17.1 per cent in 2015.

”

America may see secularism peak before New Zealand does

See also: American atheism

On July 24, 2019, due to religious immigration to the United States and the higher fertility rate of religious people, Eric Kaufmann wrote in an article entitled Why Is Secularization Likely to Stall in America by 2050? A Response to Laurie DeRose: "Overall, the picture suggests that the U.S. will continue to secularize in the coming decades. However, a combination of religious immigration, immigrant religious retention, slowing religious decline due to a rising prevalence of believers among the affiliated, and higher native religious birth rates will result in a plateauing of secularizing trends by mid-century."

Current religious demography scholarship suggest that the relatively low fertility of secular Americans and the religiosity of the immigrant inflow provide a countervailing force that will cause the secularization process within the total population to plateau before 2043. This represents an important theoretical point in that demography permits society to become more religious even as individuals tend to become less religious over time.

In their 2010 journal article entitled, Secularism, Fundamentalism or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043 published in the Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, Eric Kaufmann, Vegard Skirbekk and Anne Goujon wrote:

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We find considerable stability of religious groups over time, but there are some important shifts. Hispanic Catholics experience the strongest growth rates to 2043. Immigration, high fertility, and a young age structure will enable this group to expand from 10 to 18 percent of the American population between 2003 and 2043, despite a net loss of communicants to secularism and Protestantism. This will power the growth of Catholics as a whole, who will surpass Protestants by mid century within the nation’s youngest age groups. This represents a historic moment for a country settled by anti-Catholic Puritans, whose Revolution was motivated in part by a desire to spread dissenting Protestantism and whose populationon the eve of revolution was 98 percent Protestant (Huntington 2004; Kaufmann 2004). Another important development concerns the growth of the Muslim population and decline of the Jews. High Muslim fertility and a young Muslim age structure contrasts with low Jewish childbearing levels and a mature Jewish age structure. Barring an unforeseen shift in the religious composition and size of the immigrant flow, Muslims will surpass Jews in the population by 2023 and in the electorate by 2028. This could have profound effects on the course of American foreign policy. Within the non-Hispanic white population, we expect to see continued Liberal Protestant decline due to low fertility and a net loss in exchanges with other groups. White Catholics will also lose due to a net outflow of converts. Fundamentalist and Moderate Protestant denominations will hold their own within the white population, but will decline overall as the white share of the population falls. The finding that Protestant fundamentalism may decline in relative terms over the medium term contrasts with a prevailing view that envisions the continued growth of “strong religion” (Stark and Iannaccone 1994a). This is the result of an older age structure, which increases loss through mortality, and immigration, which reduces the size of all predominantly white denominations — all of which are poorly represented in the immigration flow. Fundamentalists’ relatively high fertility and net surplus from the religious marketplace is not sufficient to counteract the effects of immigration. Obviously, this could change if significant immigration begins to arrive from more Pentecostalist source countries such as Guatemala or parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also sheds light on the religious restructuring paradigm, though we do not find a clear victor between secularism and fundamentalism. The secular population will grow substantially in the decades ahead because it has a young age structure and more people leave religion than enter it. The sharpest gains for secularism will be within the white population, where seculars will surpass fundamentalists by 2030. On the other hand, there are important demographic limits to secularism, demonstrating the power of religious demography. The relatively low fertility of secular Americans and the religiosity of the immigrant inflow provide a countervailing force that will cause the secularization process within the total population to plateau before 2043. This represents an important theoretical point in that demography permits society to become more religious even as individuals tend to become less religious over time.

”

During the Biden administration, many illegal immigrants have poured across the southern border of the United States.

Will New Zealand have secularism peak before 2050? Will secularism peak in New Zealand before Europe and the United States?

New Zealand, its hyper-aging population and desecularization

See also: New Zealand, its growing problem of hyper-aging areas and desecularization

New Zealand road sign indicating that elderly people are in the area.

New Zealand’s towns and cities are rapidly becoming ‘hyper-aged’.

MacauBusiness.com notes: "The World Health Organization defines a country as having an “ageing society” when the proportion of people aged 65 or more is between 7 and 14 per cent of the total population; as having an “aged society” if this proportion is between 15 and 20 per cent; and as having a “super-” or “hyper-aged society” when this proportion is 21 per cent or higher."

According to the New Zealand government: "By 2030, it is expected that 19–21 percent of New Zealanders will be aged 65+, compared with 16 percent in 2020. By 2048, this proportion is expected to reach 21–26 percent, and reach 24–34 percent by 2073. Japan, which has the highest percentage of individuals above 65 years old, had 28.2 percent of its population above 65 years old in 2019.

The 2022 journal article A “death-laden society”: The next stage of a hyper-aged Japan and health challenges ahead published in the Aging and Health Research journal indicated about aging "death laden" societies: "A death-laden society is when the whole society, including younger people, are overwhelmed with the burdens of the ballooning deaths of those in advanced age at a scale unparalleled in history."

On November 24, 2022, the article Welcome to the hyper-ageing nation that is New Zealand indicated concerning Japan:

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New Zealand’s towns and cities are rapidly becoming ‘hyper-aged’, which will have far-reaching consequences for society and the economy. Population projections show it won’t affect all areas equally, and those most impacted will have difficult decisions to make... Hyper-aged is an unusual term – and might even sound derogatory – but it’s a technical description for any population where the proportion of people aged-65+ is more than 20%. In most cases, structural ageing cannot be reversed. Once natural decrease sets in, the only way to increase the population is through migration – either national or international. Research suggests the level of migration required to balance natural decline is unrealistic, and that “even extremely high migration levels would have only minimal impact” on the proportion of the 65+ population. Another problem is that migrants themselves get older, which adds to structural ageing. Maintaining a balance would require an exponential increase in migrant numbers over time. Councils can try to encourage residents of other areas to relocate, but many communities will be in the same position – they’ll be competing with each other for a dwindling proportion of younger people.

”

Nonreligious/irreligious populations/nones have subreplacement levels of births which leads to aging populations (See: Atheism and fertility rates and Global atheism and aging populations). Caspar Melville wrote in The New Humanist: "Firstly secular liberalism is individualistic, and therefore it goes hand in hand with delayed child bearing and lower fertility rates.

As far as the potential economic effects of hyper-aging areas of New Zealand, Wired magazine's article on hyper-aging areas indicates:

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There are an estimated eight million ghost houses in Japan. With such plentiful supply we might expect a slump, in which prices tumble, but something new and extreme happens: in a vanishing village there is no price, however low, at which people will buy. The market is not depressed, but frozen. This chill goes further than economics: when a town is disappearing, local politics becomes pointless: across Japan, one-fifth of seats in the 2015 local elections went uncontested. The solution to these problems will need to be extreme: bulldozing unwanted properties, rewilding deserted areas, and finding new ways to engage rural voters and politicians. Ageing is itself a pandemic, one that we will need to begin tackling as soon as Covid-19 is under control.

”

New Zealand's desperate shortage of labor in many sectors, religious immigrants and desecularization happening faster in New Zealand in the 21st century

Professor Paul Spooney is a sociologist and Distinguished Emeritus Professor at Massey University. He is the author of the book The New New Zealand. Facing Demographic Disruption.

According to Professor Spooney:

“

As we look to re-invigorate the New Zealand economy, there is a lot of finger-pointing and a reluctance to accept that responsibility lies as much with employers and communities as it does with government. Take immigration. Like the rest of the developed world, we are desperately short of labour in many sectors. Our demography has not helped. Declining fertility rates will add to labour shortages over time, but the most recent factor has been the “Great Retirement”. There was a spike in most countries of what is referred to as “excess retirements” – the numbers retiring from the workforce at a higher rate than expected – during Covid. In the USA, the number was a rather staggering 2.6 million excess retirements. Developed countries, as they emerge from the first stage of the pandemic, are discovering how significant the crunch in labour availability is... Attention has swung to sourcing labour offshore as a way of making up the deficit... At this point, we certainly need government to tweak our immigration policy settings and to provide the resources to recruit and approve applications.

”

In 2022, New Zealand launched a new investor visa.

The 2022 article Real change to the New Zealand immigration system states:

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“New Zealand businesses are suffering from workforce shortages caused by an inflexible and illogical immigration system, we need real change to ensure employers can access the workers they need and hard working immigrants can contribute to New Zealand society,” says ACT’s Immigration spokesperson Dr James McDowall. “The New Zealand economy is facing a labour crisis that’s reducing production and pushing up costs. ACT is calling on the Government to remove restrictions that may have made sense when we were short of jobs, but make no sense in a labour crisis,” says ACT’s Immigration spokesperson Dr James McDowall. “To ease the cost of living crisis, the Government should dump the labour market test, industry specific wage requirements, and transfer restrictions. Foreign workers should be able to work for accredited employers so long as they are employed consistent with New Zealand law. “Employers across New Zealand are facing the same problem, they need workers but it is near impossible to bring them in from overseas. “The Government’s new residency scheme ‘Green List’ leaves far too many professions out in the cold and Kiwi business owners shaking their heads. “The few professions that are eligible for residency are held back by leisurely visa processing times. “Other countries can see there’s a war for talent and they’re taking steps to raid New Zealand’s. For example, the UK recently extended the working holiday visa for Kiwis to 35 years of age. In stark contrast Immigration NZ is acting like a security guard at the border. “In short, the whole system is a mess. It inflicts costs on struggling businesses which are then passed on to consumers as well. Our productivity levels are tanking as orchards can’t get fruit pickers. Building sites can’t get builders. Hospitals can’t get nurses. Farms can’t get milkers. There are shortages of essential workers that are creating a wage-price spiral.

”

New Zealand has an ageing population due to a declining fertility rate, the ageing of the baby boom generation and an increase in average life expectancy.

In 2022, New Zealand launched a new investor visa.

As noted above, on December 23, 2012, Kaufmann wrote:

“

I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious. On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British.

”

Fertility rates, economic growth and the demand for labor are going to play a part in terms of how much New Zealand and Europe will have to let in foreign workers who are more religious than the native population. Will future immigration policy be more generous in New Zealand than Europe? Time will tell.

In the 21st century, will Europe or New Zealand have a bigger percentage of its population be anti-immigration?

The Economist Intelligence Unit rated the country of New Zealand as the second most democratic country in its 2021 Democracy Index. New Zealand also ranks highly for government transparency and has the lowest perceived level of corruption in the world.

In 2020, more than one-quarter of New Zealand’s population was foreign-born.

A democratic and transparent New Zealand may have a more generous immigration than Europe in the future.

The amount of data about European atheists compared to the data about New Zealand atheists. We do have some data about New Zealand atheists though.

Due to the much smaller population of New Zealand compared to Europe, there is sparse data about the percentage of atheists in New Zealand compared to the amount of data we have about Europe as a whole in terms of the percentage of atheists.

We do have some data about New Zealand atheists though. In 2008, the International Social Survey Programme was conducted in New Zealand by Massey University. The results of this survey indicated that 72% of the population believed in the existence of God or a higher power, 15% are agnostic, and 13% are atheist (the survey had a 3% margin of error).

Also, there is widespread distrust of atheists in the world and in the developed world. Concerning distrust of atheists, sociological research indicates that atheists are widely distrusted in both religious cultures and nonreligious cultures. According to a study published in the International Journal for The Psychology of Religion: "anti-atheist prejudice is not confined either to dominantly religious countries or to religious individuals, but rather appears to be a robust judgment about atheists." The study found that many atheists do not trust other atheists as well.

So there is the issue of cowardly, closet atheists. See also: Atheism and cowardice

Atheist loners and lack of cooperation among atheists

Furthermore, many atheists are lone wolfs and contentious as well (See: Atheism and social/interpersonal intelligence and Atheist factions ).

According to an international study done by William Bainbridge, atheism is frequent among people whose interpersonal social obligations are weak and is also linked to lower fertility rates in advanced industrial nations (See also: Atheism and fertility rates).

Conclusion

If New Zealand continues to have a more democratic and transparent government than many governments in the world and it continues to have a lot of immigrants who are more religious than the general population of New Zealand due to the world presently becoming more religious over time, then New Zealand's secular population may peak before the secular population peaks in Europe/USA.

On the other hand, the coronavirus pandemic is slowing down religious immigrants to New Zealand. Also, Europe has had more Muslim immigration due to its closer proximity to the Middle East and North Africa. The United States receives a lot of religious, illegal immigrants via its southern border.

On the whole, the data favors New Zealand's secular population peaking after Europe's and America's does. So New Zealand's secular population might peak after 2050, but definitely before 2100. New Zealand is influenced by Western countries and it will have a lot of religious immigrants. So within a generation of Europe's and America's secular population peaking, New Zealand's secular population should peak. And after the secular popular peaks, it will decline both numerically and as a percentage of the population.

Message to Ace McWicked

I said that New Zealand's secular/nonreligious population would peak sometime between 2050 and 2100 and then go downward both numerically and as a percentage of the population, but it may happen sooner. Stop pretending otherwise.

And when you finally understand the difference between a long-term trend and a short-term trend, let me know.

I suspect that there are statisticians in Auckland (Which is the most influential area of New Zealand and the most religious area of New Zealand. And it has a growing population). So you might consider asking a godly Auckland statistician the difference between a short-term trend and a long-term trend if you do not understand the difference. Remember, both mathematics and science were most greatly influenced by theists and not by atheists (Leonhard Euler, Blaise Pascal, Boyle, Kepler, Newton, Galileo Galilei, Copernicus, Maxwell, Bacon, Kelvin, etc.). Also, the Scientific Revolution happened in Christianized Europe.

You are so desperate for victory over the User: Conservative account (which has two editors) that you keep trumpeting this so-called victory that is not based in reality in the slightest degree. Sad!

P.S. On behalf of all Christians who are politically right-leaning, I hereby declare victory! Olé! Olé! Olé!

Numerous atheists have declared that the "atheist movement is dead" or that it is dying. See: Decline of the atheist movement

As much as I hate to do it, on behalf of all Christendom, I User: Conservative, hereby declare total victory over the dead atheist movement which is quite, completely and utterly dead and will never rise again! Olé! Olé! Olé!

For more information, please see: July 2, 2011: The day the atheism movement died on the information superhighway

Recommended books

• Is Atheism Dead? by Eric Metaxas. ‎Salem Books (October 19, 2021)
• The Twilight of Atheism: The Rise and Fall of Disbelief in the Modern World by Alister McGrath. WaterBrook; Reprint edition (December 18, 2007)
• The Triumph of Faith: Why the World Is More Religious than Ever by Rodney Stark. ISI Books; 1st edition (November 16, 2015)
• Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann. Profile Books; Main edition (December 9, 2010)
• The Triumph of Christianity: How the Jesus Movement Became the World's Largest Religion by Rodney Stark. ‎ HarperOne; Illustrated edition (October 25, 2011)

See also

• Future of Christianity
• Christianity and its margin of victory over atheism