Jump to: navigation, search

United States Presidential Election, 2008

55 bytes added, 23:43, 9 April 2019
HTTP --> HTTPS #3, replaced: →, → (2)
|[http Gallup Tracking Traditional]
| 10/31 - 11/02
| 2516 LV
|[http Gallup Tracking Expanded]
| 10/31 - 11/02
| 2480 LV
The trends heavily favored the Democrats, especially after their major gains in 2006. Overall, Democrat candidates have a +10% advantage over Republicans in a 'generic' election - the current unpopular President is a Republican, and the economy is treading water. Also, based on statistical percentages of articles on each candidate, Obama was being focused on by the press far more than McCain. When McCain chastised Obama for his lack of foreign policy experience and that he hadn't been to Iraq or Afghanistan in years, Obama's campaign set up for him to take a trip to both countries. While this is expected in politics, the decision of every major network to send a team of reporters to follow him was unprecedented. Obama spoke to 200,000 people in Berlin in a highly covered speech. McCain spoke to 50,000 in Buffalo shortly thereafter and barely got a whisper. Obama's numbers started to rise, but a good deal of the populace was noticing the disparity as 48% of those polled felt the press was trying to help Obama win.
Obama seemed pleased to coast on his advantages, but McCain realized he needed to shake things up. He scored by pushing offshore drilling for oil during a time when oil prices were climbing almost daily. Obama rejected the idea, but the poll numbers started to show a greater percentage of Americans warming to the concept<ref>[ Offshore Drilling poll]</ref> and McCain's numbers started to improve. Obama announced he would accept some measure of offshore drilling, and McCain's momentum was halted and his gains retreated by a couple of points. McCain started an ad campaign that acknowledged Obama's celebrity status, but asking what it meant. A few days later at the start of August he called out Obama for 'playing the race card' when Obama made a reference to McCain and Bush trying to scare people because he (Obama) doesn't look like other Presidents on dollar bills. The Democrats fired back, but quickly let the issue drop when poll numbers showed that most voters did consider Obama's statement to be racist.<ref>[]</ref> The bounce for Obama after the Berlin speech shrank back to pre-trip levels. While Obama continued to enjoy a slight lead in the polls, McCain continued to keep the race close without either candidate breaking away.
In mid-August, both candidates came together at the invitation of Pastor [[Rick Warren]] where each was asked a series of the same questions dealing both with political and personal views. While not a debate, it was the first televised forum where both candidates had a chance to express themselves and their positions. Obama hoped to appeal to Christian conservatives by expressing a religious side while McCain hoped to solidify the conservative base by sharing his own conservative and religious credentials. The difference in style between the two was evident as Obama spent more time explaining and expounding on his positions while McCain was more straightforward and received more laughs with his candid speaking style. The polling numbers continued as they had been.
McCain's debate with Obama went well and he was viewed as having done better than expected. Unfortunately for him, Obama was also viewed as doing better than expected and was seen as looking Presidential, further cementing his standing and locking in a lead in the polls that had become rather substantial. The Vice Presidential debate was the most watched in history and Palin was given high marks for her performance, but unfortunately for the Republican ticket, Biden was also on his game that night and also came across well. There were no changes in the polling numbers and the number of undecided voters began to quickly dwindle. The second and third debates caused little change as well.
With Obama spending 110 million dollars on TV advertising in October alone, including 30 minute specials on each of the major networks, McCain was hard pressed to make up the necessary ground to win the election after being outspent by 3 to 1 for TV adds over that time period. He couldn't count on regular TV to help put in a good word for him either, as late night political jokes are running at a pace of 7 jokes against McCain/Palin for every 1 joke against Obama/Biden and a study of news stories on McCain and Obama since the end of the conventions found that 57% of news stories about McCain were negative while only 29% were for Obama.<ref></ref> A later study by the independent Pew Research Center found that the discrepancy had grown even worse. McCain had 57% of the articles about him negative while only 14% were positive, while Obama had more positive articles than negative. The only network to achieve a balance, 40% negative for both, was [[Fox News]].<ref>http,2933,445846,00.html</ref>
== General Strategy ==
Democrats believe it is their race to lose, but also realize they had a good chance to win the last two Presidential elections and came up short each time. General wisdom also states that a poor economy favors Obama, so they will emphasize the dire times in this area. As in past elections, differences between those who have obtained a high income level and those who have not will be emphasized. In fact, the Democratic strategy in many ways mirrors that of their strategy in 1992 when the Democrat-controlled Congress deliberately caused economic disruption, knowing full well that the public would blame sitting president [[George H.W. Bush]], and thereby allowing [[Bill Clinton]] to win that year's presidential race.
Favored by the young, Democrats will try hard to encourage and get out the young vote, a task that has proven more difficult than expected in the last two election cycles. To their advantage, Obama made his vice presidential pick via text message to cell phone numbers registered on the site. The announcement went to 3 million cell phones, a useful database for "[[Get Out The Vote]]" (GOTV) efforts, when voters may not be home or reachable on their [[landline]].
As an extension of the DNC's strategy in the 2006 elections, led by [[Howard Dean]], Barack Obama has been working towards a "50-state strategy." The campaign is working to place campaign offices throughout the country with a focus on voter registration. The increase in the rolls of Democratic voters from the primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Obama played out well for the Democrats and puts pressure on Senator McCain even in typically red states, and more specifically, "Lean Republican" states, to use the Cook Political Report's term. In addition, with a fundraising advantage, Obama is airing ads in those tight states forcing McCain to make decisions about whether to use funds to match ads and campaign efforts in those states or rely on historical results that those states will support him and focus funds in traditional toss-up states instead.
Barack Obama had a significant edge over Hillary Clinton in the fundraising department during their contest for the Democratic nomination, but both actually set records for raising money and both raised far more money than John McCain. McCain didn’t didn't have to spend as much since he locked up the Republican nomination much earlier than Obama locked up the Democratic. Both Obama and McCain said they would accept government funds—which would also cap how much the candidates could raise on their own—but Obama, who could presumably raise more through his own sources, changed his mind and later declined. Much of McCain’s McCain's war chest will come from the Republican Party in general, which has more money to spend than their Democratic counterparts. McCain’s McCain's campaign raised $47 million in August, a very sizable figure for him so far and a personal record, but not as strong as Obama’s Obama's best months. In the same time period, Obama set a record with $66 million. Obama, still having an edge in fundraising that has continued throughout his run for the Presidency, saw $10 million collected the day after Sarah Palin’s Palin's strongly received convention speech, a new one day record.<ref>[ After Palin speech, Obama has record $10 million day]</ref> The Palin announcement has been good for John McCain's fundraising as well.
Obama set a new record of $150 million raised in September and over $600 million overall.<ref></ref> Obama's camp does not release information on who contributes to the campaign.
====Leftist violence====
[[File:SDS at the RNC.jpg|left|thumb|290px|Poster circulated by [[community organizer]]s. Other posters depicted rock throwers with the caption, "Shut Down the RNC!," dead elephants, and derogatory and demeaning comments about gay Republicans. [http] ]]
[[Progressives for Obama]] shares a huge membership overlap with the Movement for a Democratic Society (MDS), a group of former [[Students for a Democratic Society]] (SDS) members and sympathisers. MDS re-founded SDS in 2006 for a new generation of college students and functions as a support group for SDS's 130 college chapters. Independent researcher Trevor Louden refers to MDS as "the brains behind the SDS brawn." The reconstituted SDS was very prominent in the violence at the Republican National Convention at St Paul.<ref>[ Obama File 30: Former Terrorists [[Bill Ayers]] and [[Bernardine Dohrn]] Involved in Key Pro-Obama Organisation,] Trevor Louden, New Zeal blog, September 21, 2008.</ref> The founder of [[ACORN]], Wade Rathke, denouncd<ref>[ Common Ground Infiltrator,] Wade Rathke: Chief Organizer Blog, January 31, 2009. Retrieved March 14, 2010.</ref> an FBI informer who foiled a [[terrorist]] plot to kill delegates at the Republican Convention.<ref>[ ACORN Founder Wade Rathke Wanted Terrorist Attack on Republican Convention to Succeed,] Matthew Vadum, American Spectator, 9.13.09</ref>
''For expanded primary information , see [[United States Presidential Election, 2008 - Primaries]]''
The primary season for both the [[Republican Party]] and the [[Democratic Party]] officially began on January 3, 2008 with the [[Iowa Caucus]]es and ended on June 3, 2008.<ref></ref> The 2008 election cycle saw a major shift in the primary election calendar, frontloading many primaries into early February.<ref></ref>
*[[Barack Hussein Obama 2008 Presidential campaign]]
*[[John McCain 2008 Presidential Campaign]]
*[[Hillary Clinton 2008 presidential campaign]]
==Further reading==
* Abramowitz, Allen I. and Larry J. Sabato. ''The 2008 Elections'' (2008), state by state statistical analysis
* Balz, Dan, and Haynes Johnson. ''The Battle for America 2008: The Story of an Extraordinary Election'' (2009), by leading reporters with inside information
* Nelson, Michael. ''The Elections of 2008'' (2009), factual summary [http except and text search]* Todd, Chuck, and Sheldon Gawiser. ''How Barack Obama Won: A State-by-State Guide to the Historic 2008 Presidential Election'' (2009) analysis of exit polls for each state [http excerpt and text search]
== References ==
Block, SkipCaptcha, bot