United States presidential election, 2024

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The 2024 United States presidential election, the 60th quadrennial presidential election, will be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

Candidates

Republican Party

See also: Republican presidential candidates 2024

Former President Donald Trump is considered a likely candidate to reclaim his office. Notwithstanding "polling data" to the contrary, he maintains a high popularity level among Republican voters who identify as conservative or very conservative. However, only one time has a former President ever reclaimed the office, that being Grover Cleveland who lost to, then defeated, Benjamin Harrison.

If former President Trump chooses not to run, two current Governors -- Greg Abbott of Texas and Ron DeSantis of Florida -- have had their names floated as possible candidates. Both lead conservative states with fast-growing populations -- Texas is the second-largest state, Florida the third -- and each state is expected to gain at least one seat in the Electoral College once official Census numbers are announced. Both Abbott and DeSantis would be in the middle of their second terms in office in 2024. DeSantis is term-limited under Florida law, and furthermore under Florida law would have to resign his office to seek the Presidency; Abbott is not term-limited and could run for President while keeping his seat, not having to resign until and unless elected (as did his predecessor George W. Bush in 2000, who remained in the Governor's office until the contentious election was finally settled, then resigned prior to the beginning of the Texas Legislature's session), as Texas law has neither of the Florida law's restrictions.

Democratic Party

See also: Democratic presidential candidates 2024

As it is highly unusual for an incumbent President who is eligible for a second term in office not to seek such[1], Joe Biden is a likely candidate for re-election. As the incumbent he will have a significant advantage over both any primary challenger as well as the Republican Party nominee.

However, on Election Day he will be 15 days shy of his 82nd birthday, which would make him by far the oldest candidate ever. With questions raised about his mental fitness (as well as physical fitness), it is possible that he may choose not to run again, or that he may decide to step down from office prior to completing his term.

If so, then it is likely that current Vice President Kamala Harris will run, either as the incumbent VP or the incumbent President. Her electability has also been called into question, but as an incumbent (either as VP or POTUS) she will have an advantage. Former mayor over the systemically racist South Bend police department Pete Buttigieg has also been named as a possible replacement.[2] Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia has been mentioned as a frontrunner should the far left suffer a resounding defeat in the 2022 midterm elections.

Third-Party Candidates

Both the Libertarian Party and the Green Party will almost likely run candidates of their own, being the two largest of the "third parties" in the United States. Other minor parties and non-affiliated candidates are expected to run as well. The last such candidate to have any effect on the overall outcome was Ross Perot in his two attempts, both times gaining enough votes to allow Bill Clinton to win states by a plurality instead of a majority (votes that likely would have gone to the Republican candidate in both cases).

See also

References

  1. ↑ Excluding candidates who served the remainder of a predecessor's term and then a full term of their own, only four Presidents -- James Polk, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, and Rutherford Hayes -- have declined to seek a second term after serving one full term.
  2. ↑ https://freebeacon.com/columns/fight-night-kamala-v-pete/
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