Difference between revisions of "Swing state"

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Revision as of 03:01, January 9, 2012

Swing states are states in which neither the Republican nor Democratic candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support prior to a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the election results in either direction. They are also known as "battleground states" because they are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties. Since states that consistently express a preference for either the Democratic of Republican candidate are ususally referred to as blue states and red states, repectively, these states are also called "purple states" in order to highlight their mixed demographical nature.

Here are the key swing states for the Presidential Election 2012, ranked by likelihood that Barack Obama will likely lose them despite winning them in 2008. These eight swing states will have a total of 122 Electoral College votes in 2012. (In 2008 Obama won by a margin of only six of these states.)

State Margin of Obama's win in 2008 Indicators Electoral Votes in 2012
Indiana 1.03% Indiana was a red state from 1964 to 2004, and when Obama took the state in 2008 it was by an extremely narrow margin. Obama is currently very unpopular in the state. 11
Virginia 6.3% Elected a Republican governor, Bob McDonnell, in 2009. In the 2011 elections the Republican party took the state senate, giving them control over both houses of the legislature 13
Pennsylvania 10.3% Obama's disapproval rating is high: 54%, and Republicans swept the elections in 2010; also, Obama polled poorly here in 2008 against Hillary Clinton.[1] 20
Florida 2.81% Elected a Republican for both governor and Senate in the 2010 midterm elections; however, Governor Rick Scott is currently (Dec. 2011) very unpopular in the state. Obama's approval in the state is below 50% and without Florida his reelection is unlikely. 29
Ohio 4.58% Ohio voted Republican in the 2010 elections, but the public unions repealed the collective bargaining reforms by popular vote. This indicates heavy union influence who always vote democrat. 18
Wisconsin 13.90 Elected Republicans to the state legislature, governor's office, and Senate in 2010. Despite much complaining by Democrats and their labor union allies, recall attempts in 2011 failed to overturn the GOP majority in the state senate. 10
North Carolina 0.33% The current Democratic governor, Bev Perdue, is highly unpopular and polling badly, especially in the wake of recent scandals among her staff. 15
Nevada 12.49% A recent special election for the state's 2nd congressional district was predicted to be competitive but resulted in a decisive victory for Republican Mark Amodei. Harry Reid won reelection in 2010 despite Tea Party opposition, but this may have been due to discrepancies and corruption in the voting process. 6
Colorado 8.95% Pro-life, pro-Christian Tim Tebow's phenomenal success for the Denver Broncos is changing the culture there. 9
Michigan 16.44% Mitt Romney, though not ideal for the average conservative, grew up in Michigan and could put it into play. His father, George Romney, served as governor of the state. 16
Iowa 9.53% 6
New Hampshire 9.61% 4
New Mexico 15.13 5

2008 Swing States

See also

External links


  1. Quinnipiac poll done late September 2011