Difference between revisions of "Talk:Scientific method"

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::: Wouldn't it have been better to take the time to verify the content than to delete everything? Or ask another sysop who is familiar with the material to do so? --[[User:Mtur|Mtur]] 16:41, 17 May 2007 (EDT)
 
::: Wouldn't it have been better to take the time to verify the content than to delete everything? Or ask another sysop who is familiar with the material to do so? --[[User:Mtur|Mtur]] 16:41, 17 May 2007 (EDT)
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==Lord Ration's 2 cents==
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Real science must conform to a system known as the  scientific method  . This system provides a framework in which scientists can analyze situations, explain certain phenomena, and answer certain questions. The scientific method starts with  observation  . Observation allows the scientist to collect data. Once enough data has been collected, the scientist forms a  hypothesis  that attempts to explain some facet of the data or attempts to answer a question that the scientist is trying to answer.
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Hypothesis - An educated guess that attempts to explain an observation or answer a question
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Once he or she forms a hypothesis, the scientist (typically with help from other scientists) then collects much more data in an effort to test the hypothesis. If data are found which are inconsistent with the hypothesis, the hypothesis might be discarded, or it might just be modified a bit until it is consistent with all data that has been collected. If a large amount of data is collected and the hypothesis is consistent with all of the data, then the hypothesis becomes a theory.
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Theory - A hypothesis that has been tested with a significant amount of data
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Since a theory has been tested by a large amount of data, it is much more reliable than a hypothesis. As more and more data relevant to the theory gets collected, the theory can be tested over and over again. If several generations of collected data are all consistent with the theory, it eventually attains the status of a scientific law.
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Scientific law - A theory that has been tested by and is consistent with generations of data
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An example of the scientific method in action can be found in the life of Ignaz Semmelweis, a Viennese doctor who lived in the early-to-mid 1800's. He was put in charge of a ward in Vienna's most famous hospital, the Allegemeine Krakenhaus. He noticed that in his ward, patients were dying at a rate which far exceeded that of the other wards, even the wards with much sicker patients. Semmelweis observed the situation for several weeks, trying to figure out what was different about his ward as compared to all others in the hospital. He finally determined that the only noticeable difference was that his ward was the first one that the doctors and medical students visited after they performed autopsies on the dead.
 +
 +
Based on his observations, Semmelweis hypothesized that the doctors were carrying something deadly from the corpses upon which the autopsies were being performed to the patients in his ward. Thus, Dr. Semmelweis exercised the first step in the scientific method. He made some observations and then formed a hypothesis to explain those observations.
 +
 +
Semmelweis then developed a way to test his hypothesis. He instituted a rule that all doctors had to wash their hands after they finished their autopsies and before they entered his ward. Believe it or not, up to that point in history, doctors never thought to wash their hands before examining or even operating on a patient! Dr. Semmelweis hoped that by washing their hands, doctors would remove whatever was being carried from the corpses to the patients in his ward.
 +
 +
Well, the doctors did not like the new rule, but they grudgingly obeyed it, and the death rate in Dr. Semmelweis' ward decreased to the lowest in the hospital! This, of course, was good evidence that his hypothesis was right. You would think that the doctors would be overjoyed. They were not. In fact, they got so tired of having to wash their hands before entering Dr. Semmelweis' ward that they worked together to get him fired. His successor, anxious to win the approval of the doctors, rescinded Semmelweis' policy, and the death rate in the ward shot back up again.
 +
 +
Semmelweis spent the rest of his life doing more and more experiments to confirm his hypothesis that something unseen but nevertheless deadly can be carried from a dead person to a live person. Although Semmelweis' work was not appreciated until after his death, his hypothesis was eventually confirmed by enough experiments that it became a scientific theory. At that point, doctors began washing their hands before examinations and surgery.
 +
 +
As time went on, more and more data was gathered in support of Semmelweis' theory. With the advent of the microscope, scientists were finally able to see the deadly bacteria and germs that can be transmitted from person to person, and Semmelweis' theory became a scientific law. Nowadays, doctors do all that they can to completely sterilize their hands, clothes, and instruments before performing any medical procedure.
 +
 +
The scientific method provides a methodical, logical way to examine a situation or answer a question. If a theory survives the scientific method and becomes a law, it can be considered reasonably trustworthy. Even a scientific theory which has not been tested enough to be a law is still pretty reliable, because it is backed up by a lot of scientific data.
 +
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Figure 1.3

Revision as of 18:05, June 4, 2007

An example of an excellent, useful article. Will it be deleted for failing one of ASchlafly's tests? I ask not to be a pain, but because accepting this entry should cause the rejection of a large percentage of articles currently here. Palmd001 22:41, 18 March 2007 (EDT)

It won't be deleted, if I have any say in the matter. But item #3 is incomplete and has a poor example.


Poverty of this definition

Totally diagaree. This is a very inadequate section, which does not at all address what the scientific method actually does , or tries to do, not the depth of verifiability required in accepting theory. Compare what is written here with the Wikipedia entry:

Elements of scientific method There are multiple ways of outlining the basic method shared by all of the fields of scientific inquiry. The following examples are typical classifications of the most important components of the method on which there is very wide agreement in the scientific community and among philosophers of science, each of which are subject only to marginal disagreements about a few very specific aspects.

The scientific method involves the following basic facets:

  • Observation. A constant feature of scientific inquiry.
  • Description. Information must be reliable, i.e., replicable (repeatable) as well as valid (relevant to the inquiry).
  • Prediction. Information must be valid for observations past, present, and future of given phenomena, i.e., purported "one shot" phenomena do not give rise to the capability to predict, nor to the ability to repeat an experiment.
  • Control. Actively and fairly sampling the range of possible occurrences, whenever possible and proper, as opposed to the passive acceptance of opportunistic data, is the best way to control or counterbalance the risk of empirical bias.
  • Falsifiability, or the elimination of plausible alternatives. This is a gradual process that requires repeated experiments by multiple researchers who must be able to replicate results in order to corroborate them. This requirement, one of the most frequently contended, leads to the following: All hypotheses and theories are in principle subject to disproof. Thus, there is a point at which there might be a consensus about a particular hypothesis or theory, yet it must in principle remain tentative. As a body of knowledge grows and a particular hypothesis or theory repeatedly brings predictable results, confidence in the hypothesis or theory increases.
  • Causal explanation. Many scientists and theorists on scientific method argue that concepts of causality are not obligatory to science, but are in fact well-defined only under particular, admittedly widespread conditions.[Who says?] Under these conditions the following requirements are generally regarded as important to scientific understanding:
  • Identification of causes. Identification of the causes of a particular phenomenon to the best achievable extent.
  • Covariation of events. The hypothesized causes must correlate with observed effects.
  • Time-order relationship. The hypothesized causes must precede the observed effects in time.

The following is a more thorough description of the method. This set of methodological elements and organization of procedures will in general tend to be more characteristic of natural sciences and experimental psychology than of disciplines commonly categorized as social sciences. Among the latter, methods of verification and testing of hypotheses may involve less stringent mathematical and statistical interpretations of these elements within the respective disciplines. Nonetheless the cycle of hypothesis, verification and formulation of new hypotheses will tend to resemble the basic cycle described below.

The essential elements of a scientific method are iterations, recursions, interleavings, and orderings of the following:

An alternative way to explain scientific method is the "operational":

The essential elements of a scientific method are operations, observations, models, and a utility function for evaluating models.

  • Operation - Some action done to the system being investigated
  • Observation - What happens when the operation is done to the system
  • Model - A fact, hypothesis, theory, or the phenomenon itself at a certain moment
  • Utility Function - A measure of the usefulness of the model to explain, predict, and control, and of the cost of use of it
One of the elements of any scientific utility function is the refutability of the model. Another is its simplicity, on the Principle of Parsimony also known as Occam's Razor.


I would suggest that what is required her is either to use a reference to Wikipedia OR to incorparate some of these elements.

--CatWatcher 15:11, 4 April 2007 (EDT)

Uncle Ed's two cents

Has anyone seen this 4-step formulation?

  • Proper scientific methodology usually requires four steps:
    1. Observation. Objectivity is very important at this stage.
    2. The inducement of general hypotheses or possible explanations for what has been observed. Here one must be imaginative yet logical. Occam's Razor should be considered but need not be strictly applied: Entia non sunt multiplicanda, or as it is usually paraphrased, the simplest hypothesis is the best. Entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily.
    3. The deduction of corollary assumptions that must be true if the hypothesis is true. Specific testable predictions are made based on the initial hypothesis.
    4. Testing the hypothesis by investigating and confirming the deduced implications. Observation is repeated and data is gathered with the goal of confirming or falsifying the initial hypothesis.
  • Pseudoscience often omits the last two steps above. [1]

The difference between this 4-step process and what the article says, is that this one recommends drawing conclusions from the hypothesis. The scientist then compares each conclusion with the facts. Any facts which contradict a conclusion invalidate the hypothesis.

Logically, it works like this:

  • Hypothesis: the moon is made of green cheese.
    1. If this is true, then the spectrum of light coming from the moon should match the spectrum for green cheese.
    2. Astronomer X did a spectral analysis of moonlight and found that it did not match green cheese.
    3. Therefore, the hypothesis is untrue.

If you want an example that isn't so light-hearted, we could list the criteria used by medical researchers to determine whether a particular germ causes a disease. Such factors as:

  • Does the disease ever occur without the presence of the germ (or at least antibodies indicating its presence)?
  • Does the germ ever appear without the disease manifesting? If so, how much? Is there a threshold?

I think this was used in determining whether e. coli bacteria in water makes people sick.

Sorry I don't have all the details at hand - I'm not a card-carrying scientist - but I think I've captured the essentials. Can we work together as "science writers" to fix up the article? --Ed Poor 09:45, 6 April 2007 (EDT)

It has been nearly 3 weeks, and none of the writers clamoring and carping about the supposed "bias" of this site re: theory of evolution have bothered to comment on scientific methodology here. Does this mean that evolution is indeed a matter of dogma to them, as Ann Coulter claims in Godless?

Psychology studies invisible events which cannot be measured by any "natural" means. We can only ask people to report to us, in their own words, what they were thinking or feeling. Yet it is considered a science. --Ed Poor 06:52, 24 April 2007 (EDT)

On the other hand, it might be because we have been banned for pointing out that many of the other entries on this site are in need of citation and evidence to back up statements, and did not have the opportunity to contribute. :P --CatWatcher 07:39, 24 April 2007 (EDT)
If this were true, somebody would have pointed out an example by now. I've been here 5 weeks, and ideological bans simply do not happen. Do not spread false rumors, or I will suspend your account. --Ed Poor 07:45, 24 April 2007 (EDT)

Ah, you mean like the following interchange on A.Schafly's talk page just before I was banned...

== Response to accusations of ideology ==

This is quite an interesting accusation. I thought that I was simply pointing out that the entry as written was deficient, in that it contained no references and seemed to present an unjustified diatribe against what the author perceived to be 'liberals'. Not knowing any liberals, myself, I would like to know where i can find such information, so as to read about them, and convince myself that the statements are true. As to defacing, I did not change ONE ITEM of text that you wrote, hence I do not consider that defacement. --[[User:CatWatcher|CatWatcher]] 18:05, 20 April 2007 (EDT)

--CatWatcher 07:52, 24 April 2007 (EDT)

You were not "banned" - you are still here. To "ban" means to exclude permanently from the project. Please don't use inflammatory language.

Your account was blocked for three days because of "sarcasm". You had said that you didn't know any liberals.

Instead of engaging me here in a low-traffic area of the site, perhaps you'd like to make your points in a more prominent place, such as Conservapedia:Has anyone ever been been banned for pointing out that many of the other entries on this site are in need of citation and evidence to back up statements?. --Ed Poor 08:12, 24 April 2007 (EDT)

WhatIsG0ing0n got blocked for criticising badly sourced stuff. It doesn't take rocket science to figure that the reasons given for such blocks are just excuses to stifle criticism - they can't be found in the rules.
Auld Nick 12:09, 24 April 2007 (EDT)

Distinct from Scientific theory

Recently, this was made a redirect to scientific theory which is one stage of the scientific method. It does not talk about the method itself (observation, hypothesis, predictions, refinement, theory). If there are no objections, I intend to remove the redirect and rewrite the article. --Mtur 16:03, 17 May 2007 (EDT)

Sorry Mtur - didn't mean to step on your toes - I saw the article had been redirected to scientific theory, which was obviously incorrect, so I wrote something for it to provide some kind of definition of the scientific method without looking at the discussion page. I expect other people will rewrite anything that looks incorrect. There should be no ideological struggles over this since an understanding of the scientific method is universally accepted by scientists, though it may be phrased differently by different people.--Britinme 16:22, 17 May 2007 (EDT)

Seems the only contributors to the old entry were amongst a cabal of vandals. RobS 16:24, 17 May 2007 (EDT)
No toes stepped on - just that they are two distinct concepts that need distinct pages. If the old page was substandard then a new one should be written. I'm just making sure that I'm not stepping on any sensitive sysop toes by suggesting this. --Mtur 16:27, 17 May 2007 (EDT)
Please go ahead. We do have some questionable material in some entries, so I just had to remove all this since the ony two contributors have been blocked. RobS 16:35, 17 May 2007 (EDT)
Wouldn't it have been better to take the time to verify the content than to delete everything? Or ask another sysop who is familiar with the material to do so? --Mtur 16:41, 17 May 2007 (EDT)

Lord Ration's 2 cents

Real science must conform to a system known as the scientific method . This system provides a framework in which scientists can analyze situations, explain certain phenomena, and answer certain questions. The scientific method starts with observation . Observation allows the scientist to collect data. Once enough data has been collected, the scientist forms a hypothesis that attempts to explain some facet of the data or attempts to answer a question that the scientist is trying to answer.

Hypothesis - An educated guess that attempts to explain an observation or answer a question

Once he or she forms a hypothesis, the scientist (typically with help from other scientists) then collects much more data in an effort to test the hypothesis. If data are found which are inconsistent with the hypothesis, the hypothesis might be discarded, or it might just be modified a bit until it is consistent with all data that has been collected. If a large amount of data is collected and the hypothesis is consistent with all of the data, then the hypothesis becomes a theory.

Theory - A hypothesis that has been tested with a significant amount of data

Since a theory has been tested by a large amount of data, it is much more reliable than a hypothesis. As more and more data relevant to the theory gets collected, the theory can be tested over and over again. If several generations of collected data are all consistent with the theory, it eventually attains the status of a scientific law.

Scientific law - A theory that has been tested by and is consistent with generations of data

An example of the scientific method in action can be found in the life of Ignaz Semmelweis, a Viennese doctor who lived in the early-to-mid 1800's. He was put in charge of a ward in Vienna's most famous hospital, the Allegemeine Krakenhaus. He noticed that in his ward, patients were dying at a rate which far exceeded that of the other wards, even the wards with much sicker patients. Semmelweis observed the situation for several weeks, trying to figure out what was different about his ward as compared to all others in the hospital. He finally determined that the only noticeable difference was that his ward was the first one that the doctors and medical students visited after they performed autopsies on the dead.

Based on his observations, Semmelweis hypothesized that the doctors were carrying something deadly from the corpses upon which the autopsies were being performed to the patients in his ward. Thus, Dr. Semmelweis exercised the first step in the scientific method. He made some observations and then formed a hypothesis to explain those observations.

Semmelweis then developed a way to test his hypothesis. He instituted a rule that all doctors had to wash their hands after they finished their autopsies and before they entered his ward. Believe it or not, up to that point in history, doctors never thought to wash their hands before examining or even operating on a patient! Dr. Semmelweis hoped that by washing their hands, doctors would remove whatever was being carried from the corpses to the patients in his ward.

Well, the doctors did not like the new rule, but they grudgingly obeyed it, and the death rate in Dr. Semmelweis' ward decreased to the lowest in the hospital! This, of course, was good evidence that his hypothesis was right. You would think that the doctors would be overjoyed. They were not. In fact, they got so tired of having to wash their hands before entering Dr. Semmelweis' ward that they worked together to get him fired. His successor, anxious to win the approval of the doctors, rescinded Semmelweis' policy, and the death rate in the ward shot back up again.

Semmelweis spent the rest of his life doing more and more experiments to confirm his hypothesis that something unseen but nevertheless deadly can be carried from a dead person to a live person. Although Semmelweis' work was not appreciated until after his death, his hypothesis was eventually confirmed by enough experiments that it became a scientific theory. At that point, doctors began washing their hands before examinations and surgery.

As time went on, more and more data was gathered in support of Semmelweis' theory. With the advent of the microscope, scientists were finally able to see the deadly bacteria and germs that can be transmitted from person to person, and Semmelweis' theory became a scientific law. Nowadays, doctors do all that they can to completely sterilize their hands, clothes, and instruments before performing any medical procedure.

The scientific method provides a methodical, logical way to examine a situation or answer a question. If a theory survives the scientific method and becomes a law, it can be considered reasonably trustworthy. Even a scientific theory which has not been tested enough to be a law is still pretty reliable, because it is backed up by a lot of scientific data. 

Figure 1.3
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