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The tsunami arrives Tuesday: Republicans lead Democrats 55-40% on the final Gallup poll of "likely voter" preferences: "this year's 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling." [1]


"No one in living memory has fought a congressional campaign as hard and as effectively as Robinson has," admits one newspaper.

Art Robinson2.jpg
Conservative Art Robinson

Personal Income takes a dive

Real Disposable Personal Income.JPG

The United States Department of Commerce in a press release Monday announced Real Disposable Personal Income declined $16.8 billion in the most recent reporting period. Consumer spending which accounts for 70% of all economic activity, job creation, and Unemployment are all expected to be affected by the results.

Further declines in personal takehome pay also may occur after January 1, 2011 if the Obama tax increase is allowed to take place.


Declining workforce participation is another factor affecting the Output Gap since the Pelosi/Reid Congress took office. Workforce participation.JPG

Workforce participation constitutes the total number of eligible working age adults. Some workers (women who drop out of the workforce for child rearing purposes, or seniors who work to remain active rather than they need the money, for example) in the adult population are discounted, or deemed 'ineligible' to work to arrive at the base number from which the Unemployment rate is calculated. Prior to the recession, more than 66% of working age adults were considered to makeup the workforce. Nearly two full percentage points, or 3,000,000 workers have been shaved off the statisitcs by government number crunchers, to arrive at the base number used to calculated a 9.6% Unemployment rate. If those three million eligible workers were addded back in, the 15,000,000 unemployed figure would swell to 18,000,000 (each one percentage point of the Unemployed represents roughly 1.5 million people).

Bible Verse

For there are many who practice deceit, who deny that Jesus Christ has come in the flesh. Such people are deceivers and adversaries of Christ.

2 John 1:7 (Conservative Bible Project CB).

CBO projected deficits

Obamunismdeficts.jpg
The above chart represents projected deficits under Congressional Democrats and President Obama's leadership.

Persistent deficit financing, along with tax increases in hard economic times, are known job killers that stifle growth and choke job creation, even according to Keynesian economic theory.

GDP Report Shows Stimulus Failed

375px

The U.S. Commerce Dept. reported Gross Domestic Product has not responded adequately to the one trillion dollars in stimulus passed since Speaker Nancy Pelosi took control of the U.S. House of Representatives in early 2007. More than 8 million jobs have been lost however, affecting the lives of 30 million workers. Several trillion dollars have also been added to the National debt. Analysts for the New York Times anticipate another downward revision when 3rd quarter estimates are released Friday.

By contrast, the 3.0%+ growth rates sustained by the Reagan era tax cuts as the United States emerged from the 1982 recession provided the necessary stimulus to maintain a growing population and declining unemployment (below chart).
GDP Q2 1983.JPG

The Congressional Budget Office reports the GDP output gap (the difference between actual GDP and potential GDP if all labor and capital were fully employed) is about 6.5 per cent, and economic growth for the next few years "will probably be muted." The US economy has no recent experience of living with an output gap of anywhere near this level.

Output Gap Q2 2010.JPG
The Output Gap: a reflection of actual vs potential output. The U.S. economy is operating 6.5% below its productive capacity. At 1% growth, it will take the better part of a decade to return the 10% Unemployed back to the workforce, barring no other unforseen disasters. The two Stimulus packages, since the Democrats took control of Congress in January 2007, represent an incredible waste of precious resources which could have been used to foster job creation rather than add to a colossal foreign debt.

The original term Keynesian New Dealers used for the unemployed was "wastage."

Underemployment is said to be another 7%, or 11,000,000 people, bringing the entire group total to 29,000,000 unemployed, underemployed, or 'ineligible' currently. Not counted in this figure are new hirees, persons who recently experienced Unemployment. The turnover rate (for whatever reason) of new hirees is much greater than more established workers.
Average weekly hours.JPG
Workers during Recovery Summer had smaller paychecks due to a decline in the average number of payroll hours worked per week. Likewise fewer payroll hours does not bode well for the Unemployed, as payroll hours are first to be increased before an employer hires more workers. Declining payroll hours and Workforce participation are two examples of 'under utilization of resources' contributing to the Output Gap.

Historical quote

To those who cite the First Amendment as reason for excluding God from more and more of our institutions and everyday life, may I just say: The First Amendment of the Constitution was not written to protect the people of this country from religious values; it was written to protect religious values from government tyranny. --- Ronald Reagan

Obama violates tax increase pledge

On September 12, 2008 while campaigning in Dover, New Hampshire, then candidate Obama made this solemn promise to the American people:

I can make a firm pledge: under my plan, no family making less than $250,000 will see their taxes increase - not your income taxes, not your payroll taxes. [2]

As of January 1, 2011, income taxes and payroll taxes are slated to increase on all working people in the United States, including the poor and those least able to afford it. A working family with four children, for example, will pay $215 more per month under President Obama and the Congressional Democrats economic program.

Obama tax increases.JPG

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September job loss

September job loss continued unabated with another 95,000 Americans thrown out of work,

September 2010 job loss.JPG

and the total workforce shrank further to 130,201,000 workers,

Summer of Recovery.JPG

down significantly since May when the Obama administration declared its Summer of Recovery and 130,594,000 workers still had jobs.

Effects of the Bush taxcut

After the Bush Taxcuts of 2001 and 2003 took effect, taxes collected by the government rose $800 billion dollars, according to the Office of Management and Budget

Federal Reciepts after Bush Taxcuts.png

and 8 million jobs were created, according to Labor Department statistics.

Jobs created after Bush Taxcuts.png

Initially the deficit swelled to $400 billion but by 2008 it narrowed to $160 billion. Taxes collected by the government increased from $1,800 billion to 2,600 billion (or $800 billion, recouping the original cost of $400 billion) and 8 million jobs were created. Conclusion: taxcuts more than pay for themselves.

Effect of Bush taxcuts on deficit.JPG

Unemployment claims continue to soar

Continued claims.JPG
Unemployment continued claims soared to 4,519,500 at the end of Recovery Summer. An additional 462,000, first time filers, or an increase of 13,000 displaced workers joined the soup lines in mid October. White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, and three forths of the President's key economic advisers, have left the government prior to what appears to be an impending disaster for the Administration and Democrats in the November 2 midterm elections.

Weekly UC Claims 21 Aug 2010.JPG
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

An average of 453,250 workers per week, nearly 100,000 per day, are still being laid off 21 months into the Obama Stimulus.

The Congressional Budget Office observes the share of unemployed workers whose previous job was permanently lost has been especially pronounced during the past two years. [3]
Permanent job loss.JPG
Percent of Unemployed workers.
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Conservative Quotes

"Nothing is easier than spending the public money. It doesn't appear to belong to anybody." - Calvin Coolidge

"Too much of what is called 'education' is little more than an expensive isolation from reality." - Thomas Sowell


Obama's New New Deal
(continued from above)

ADP, the nation’s largest payroll service, reports another decline in U.S payrolls in September, confirming "a pause in the economic recovery already evident." The "deceleration of employment occurred in all the major sectors."

The New New Deal recalls an era when government did more to promote Party interest and class war than to encourage Economic Recovery and the wellbeing of its citizens.

The Obama Stimulus was modeled after the New Deal, which modern scholars believe did more to deepen, and prolong, the Great Depression than provide relief. Great Britain in the 1930s recovered in four years, whereas the United States remained mired with persistent high unemployment, recession, and the New Deal for another twelve. Germany today, with a smaller stimulus, has regained virtually all jobs lost since the Recession of 2008 and reports the largest growth since reunification.

One factor Obamanomics did not consider is, the Keynesian New Deal of the 1930s was designed for a predominately industrial economy reliant on production and manufacturing, not a debt ridden and service driven consumer economy.

Also, the borrowing of the New Dealers to finance government spending came mostly from domestic, and not foreign investors. The repayment of a large foreign debt, both interest and principal primarily to China, defeats the entire purpose of a stimulus: to produce the capital necessary to create, and sustain employment. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently cited the extreme growth of the National Debt as a grave "national security threat."

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke also publicly admitted "a concerted policy effort has so far not produced an economic recovery of sufficient vigor to significantly reduce the high level of unemployment."

Obama deficits

Obama deficit.JPG
Source: White House Office of Management and Budget

The Obama deficits are unquestionably the largest on record and represents an explosion of debt owed to foreign investors -- capital that must be exported in the future. The most recent deficit under President Obama for the year ending September 30, 2010 has been reported by the administration as $1,290 billion dollars (or $1.29 trillion).

Obama deficits 2009-2010.JPG

President Obama's record deficits include the $787 billion failed Economic stimulus, the $634 billion "down payment" on so-called healthcare reform, and the $80 billion UAW bailout, which added to President Bush's proposed $700 billion deficit in 2008. President Obama's claim "I had a $1.3 trillion deficit wrapped in a bow, waiting for me at the Oval Office" is not supported by the facts.

Foreign debt.JPG

Approximately one-third of the National debt, or virtually all that President Obama and Congressional Democrats added to the existing debt, is now held by foreign investors. Two failed Stimulus packages in the past three years from the Democratic Congress were an incredible waste of resources for what the President later admitted were non-existent "shovel ready" jobs at a time they were needed for the private sector to create jobs. Rather, a large foreign debt was created which must be repaid before any benefit ever trickle's down to working families.

Youth Unemployment hits record high
in Obama's first two years

Loss of Hope of ever finding a job leads many disillusioned youth turning to drugs and crime.

The Unemployment rate for youths reached a record 19.1 percent in July 2010. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, it was the highest midsummer jobless rate for 16-to-24-year-olds since record keeping began in 1948. The youth unemployment rate has nearly doubled over the past two years, according to the Democracy Now website. A prominent economist from the University of Maryland is warning the US economy could experience painfully slow growth and high unemployment for another decade.

Unemployed over 50 may never work again

Senior workers may be the first written off and forgotten as a result of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

The New York Times has reported older unemployed workers over 50 years of age may never work again in their lifetimes. Of the 15,000,000 who are now unemployed since President Obama took office, 2,200,000 are 55 or older. The unemployment rate in this group is 7.3 percent, an all time high, and more than double what it was at the beginning of the latest recession. Nearly half of them have been unemployed six months or longer, according to the Labor Department.

In today's job market, because it will take years to absorb the giant pool of unemployed at the pace set by current Washington policymakers, many of these older people may simply quit looking for work and begin an early, impoverished, retirement.

More than 43 million Americans now live in poverty, up nearly 4 million just since President Obama took office, according to the Census Bureau.

Poverty rate explodes

At the very moment an economic Recovery was needed, the U.S. Census Bureau reports 43.6 million people, or one in seven Americans, fell into poverty in 2009, up from 39.8 million the year before. USA Today reports, "The number of people in poverty reached its highest level in 51 years."

Census poverty report figure4.jpg

Stimulus edges Unemployment higher

Unemployment Rate August 2010.JPG

The U.S. Labor Department reported Unemployment rose in the ‘Summer of Recovery’ to 9.6%, or 14,900,000 workers. President Obama called the results "positive" and Wall Street rallied to record levels on the bad news. The New York Times has reported 70 percent of all campaign contributions from Wall Street in 2008 elections went to President Obama and the Democrats.

More than 120 banks and financial institutions who took money from the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program which then Senator Barack Obama voted for have failed to make their scheduled repayments. Five others failed altogether making it unlikely the U.S. Treasury will ever recover the money poured into those institutions. Wall Street banking giants Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, which recieved $70 billion in bailout funds, are among the Top 20 largest donors to President Obama's political campaigns.

Key administartion advisers Rahm Emanuel, Larry Summers, Peter Orzag and Christina Romer all announced thier departures just before the abysmal performance of President Obama's economic program was made public. 3,200,000 despairing workers have now lost thier jobs since the President's economic stimulus became law. The Democratic controlled Congress acted with the assurance Unemployment would never reach above 7.8%.

The current state of the economy recalls worries of a not too distant past.

The total number of lives affected by Unemployment since the 110th Congress when the Recession began is well above the constant 15,000,000 unemployed reported. As roughly 2,000,000 newly unemployed enter the jobless ranks monthly, and another 2,000,000 finding jobs are rotated out, the cummulative effect means over 30 million people have directly suffered unemployment.

By September 2010, nineteen months into the Stimulus, the Labor Dept claimed the number of "marginally attached" underemployed (part time workers seeking full time work and workers taking employment beneath their skill set) reached over 2,800,000 persons (18.2% of the workforce), up from 2,200,000 in President Obama's first year.

Among the marginally attached, there were 1,200,000 discouraged workers, an increase of 503,000 since Obama's first year in office. Discouraged workers are defined as persons who have lost hope of finding work because they believe no jobs are available.

Total Unemployed.jpg

The length of time a worker is Unemployed is now more than twice as long as any time in the last 50 years.
Median-longterm-unemployment.JPG

And the workforce continues to shrink.
Total workforce.JPG

Foreign banking corporation 12th largest contributor to Obama campaign

Obama logo.JPG

Of the 671,269 contributors to President Obama, Swiss banking giant UBS, a foreign corporation, is the 12th largest contributor. In 2009 UBS was fined a record $780 million for its part in helping the rich evade U.S. income taxes.

Unemployment in the Pelosi/Reid Congress

Unemployment-chart-july-7-2010.png
Approximately 8 million jobs have been lost, many of them permanently, since the 110th Congress under Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senator Harry Reid initiated their budget and spending priorities in January of 2007.

CBO Forecast Unemployment by State.JPG

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has forecasted Unemployment as a national average to rise above 10% late in 2010 and early 2011. The above chart from the CBO shows the varying Unemployement rates throughout the 50 states after two years of Stimulus.

Three factors now threaten the Economic Recovery and expose the United States to another Recession:

  • The Foreclosure Freeze: one half trillion dollars in unsold housing inventory needs to be liquidated before demand for new housing construction, and hence new housing construction jobs, picks up. The Foreclosure Freeze also threatens banks that recieved bailout money and now are faced with more losses since the homes foreclosed on cannot be sold.
  • Questions about the legality of foreclosures and land transfers;
  • The Obama Tax increase slated for January 1st. Less take home pay means lower consumer spending. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of all economic activity.

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