Difference between revisions of "United States Presidential Election, 2008"

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[[Image:Presidential election map.gif|right|thumb|350px|Battleground states]] The '''2008 United States Presidential Election''' is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2008.<ref>http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/calendar/</ref> The primary season for both the [[Republican Party]] and the [[Democratic Party]] officially began on January 3, 2008 with the [[Iowa Caucus]]es and ended on June 3, 2008.<ref>http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/calendar/</ref>  The 2008 election cycle has seen a major shift to the primary election calendar, frontloading many primaries into early February.<ref>http://www.miamiherald.com/515/story/43160.html</ref> Senator [[John McCain]] of [[Arizona]] is expected to win the Republican nomination, while [[Barack Obama|Senator Barack Obama]] is the presumptive nominee for the [[Democratic Party]].
+
[[Image:Gp_ppl_obama_mccain_flag-capitol.jpg|right|thumb|300px|Barack Obama and John McCain]]  
 
+
[[Image:2008 US Electoral College Polling Map.png|right|300px|thumb|Election Results]]
==First election without incumbents since 1928==
+
The '''2008 United States Presidential Election''' took place on Tuesday, November 4, 2008,<ref>http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/calendar/</ref> with Barack Obama being voted in as the next President of the United States.  [[Barack Obama|Senator Barack Obama]] of [[Illinois]], the [[Democratic Party]] nominee, with Senator [[Joe Biden]] of [[Delaware]] as his Vice Presidential running mate defeated Senator [[John McCain]] of [[Arizona]], the Republican candidate, and his Vice Presidential nominee, [[Alaska]] Governor [[Sarah Palin]].
If eligible to do so, the President of the United States often runs for reelection. If the President does not run, the Vice President of the United States will often run to replace the President after he leaves office. 2008 may mark the first time since the 1928 election in which there is neither an incumbent President nor an incumbent Vice President running for his party's presidential nomination and thus not running in the Presidential election. In the [[United States presidential election of 1952]], the race was between Republican candidate Dwight D. Eisenhower and Democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson. Vice President Alben Barkley sought but failed to win the Democratic nomination. Current Vice President [[Dick Cheney]] has repeatedly stated he will not run for President. "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve," Cheney said on ''Fox News Sunday''.
+
  
 
==Differences between 2008 and other elections==
 
==Differences between 2008 and other elections==
In 2008, [[CNN]]-[[YouTube]] held the first debate in which the questions asked of the nominees in each party came primarily from YouTube viewer submitted videos. The debates received high ratings, however, CNN was criticized for not picking questions that were 'tough' or pertinent enough. One such example was during the Democratic Debate, when CNN chose to ask a question from a snow man, talking about [[global warming]]. During the Republican debate, some claimed that many of the questions were from Democratic supporters just meant to embarrass the Republican candidates. For example, a question over whether or not homosexuals should serve in the U.S. military was asked by retired general and gay activist Keith Kerr, an adviser to Hillary Clinton's campaign.  
+
In 2008, [[CNN]]-[[YouTube]] held the first debate in which the questions asked of the nominees in each party came primarily from YouTube viewer submitted videos. The debates received high ratings, however, CNN was criticized for not picking questions that were 'tough' or pertinent enough. One such example was during the Democratic Debate, when CNN chose to ask a question from a snow man, talking about [[global warming]]. During the Republican debate, some claimed that many of the questions were from Democratic supporters just meant to embarrass the Republican candidates. For example, a question over whether or not homosexuals should serve in the U.S. military was asked by retired general and gay activist Keith Kerr, an adviser to [[Hillary Clinton]]'s campaign.
 +
 
 +
The internet has also played a major role in the election, with then-Republican presidential candidate [[Ron Paul]] and Democratic candidate Barack Obama being very active on the internet.
  
The internet has also played a major role in the election, with then-Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul and Democratic candidate Barack Obama being very active on the internet.
+
===Young voters===
  
 +
In 2004, 64% of voters aged 18–29 were registered to vote.  This year 75% of voters in that age group are registered.  This demographic usually favors Democrats.
  
== Uncommitted Electorate ==
+
== Fewer Uncommitted ==
  
As of July 30th, 2008 14% of respondents are undecided, almost twice as high as the 8% at a similar time period in 2004.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/in_white_house_race_twice_as_many_voters_uncommitted_compared_to_four_years_ago</ref>
+
Fewer people were undecided this election than in most previous elections.  As of the beginning of October, 2008 approximately 6-8% of poll respondents were undecided, an amount that continued to decline as the election drew closer.
  
 +
== Election Day ==
 +
The turnout was about normal, except for higher than usual rates among blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and voters under 30—all Obama groups.  The turnout of evangelicals and whites was similar to 2004. There have been allegations of Democrats driving voters around to different voting stations, and as these are Obama groups, this would strengthen the voter turnout of this demographic.
  
==Opinion polling==  
+
==Opinion polling==
 
{| class="wikitable"
 
{| class="wikitable"
 
|-
 
|-
Line 24: Line 28:
 
! McCain (R)
 
! McCain (R)
 
|-
 
|-
| [http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll Rasmussen Tracking]
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll Rasmussen Tracking]
| 07/31 - 08/02
+
| 11/01 - 11/03
 
| 3000 LV
 
| 3000 LV
| 44
+
| '''52'''
| 44
+
| 46
 +
 
 +
|-
 +
|[http://www.zogby.com/index.cfm Zogby Tracking]
 +
| 11/01 - 11/03
 +
| 1200 LV
 +
| '''54'''
 +
| 43
 
|-
 
|-
| [http://www.gallup.com/poll/109219/Gallup-Daily-Race-Tied-44.aspx Gallup Poll]
 
| 07/30 - 08/01
 
| 2682 RV
 
| 44
 
| 44
 
 
|-
 
|-
| [http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/30/campaign.poll/index.html CNN]
+
|[https://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx Gallup Tracking Traditional]
| 07/27 - 07/29
+
| 10/31 - 11/02
| 914 RV
+
| 2516 LV
| 51
+
| '''53'''
| 44
+
| 42
 
|-
 
|-
| [http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,390301,00.html Fox News Channel]
 
| 07/22 - 07/23
 
| 900 RV
 
| 41
 
| 40
 
 
|-
 
|-
| [http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080723_Released.pdf NBC/WSJ]
+
|[https://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx Gallup Tracking Expanded]
| 07/18 - 07/21
+
| 10/31 - 11/02
| 1003 RV
+
| 2480 LV
| 47
+
| '''53'''
| 41
+
| 42
 
|-
 
|-
 
|}
 
|}
Line 58: Line 59:
 
*RV refers to registered voters, LV refers to likely voters.
 
*RV refers to registered voters, LV refers to likely voters.
  
Most polling that has been done fails to include all the candidates who will actually be on the ballot in November. A Rasmussen poll on May 18, reported on a four-way race between Barack Obama, John McCain, Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. The poll, which was conducted before Barr became the Libertarian nominee and made a number of high-profile talk show appearances, found that Barr would finish in third place with 6% of the vote, and Nader with 4%.<ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/will_third_party_candidates_tip_the_presidential_race</ref> Another poll conducted around that time showed Barr picking up 8% of the vote in [[Georgia]], seriously hurting McCain's chances of winning that state.<ref>http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_520_404.aspx</ref> It should be noted that in the actual elections, third party candidates such as Barr and Nader generally have much lower percentage of votes cast for them than they poll beforehand.
+
== McCain vs. Obama ==
 +
McCain had the early edge, wrapping up the Republican nomination before Obama was known to be the choice of the Democrats, but this was one of the few advantages he has had.  Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama raised far more money than McCain, and the Democratic primary saw a surge of new voters coming out leading to a large increase in the rolls of Democrats.  From the historical position of a generally equal number of Republicans and Democrats, the numbers have now tilted 41% Democrat to only 32% RepublicanFrom the time that Obama was declared the nominee, opinion polling showed him with a modest advantage over McCain in terms of who the voters would choose to be their next President.
  
Due to the nature of the presidential election, relying on state-by-state electoral votes as opposed to the nationwide popular vote, nationwide polls may be less predictive of the election results.  An alternative approach is to take aggregate results of state-by-state polling in order to create an electoral mapUsing this approach, Pollster.com currently places 284 electoral votes in the Democratic column and 147 electoral votes in the Republican column, with 107 toss-up votes. <ref>http://www.pollster.com/</ref>
+
Obama's strategy was to tie McCain to George Bush, a very unpopular President, even though McCain was not a part of the Bush administration and often clashed with Bush during his time as senator.  McCain, for his part, had to walk a fine line with accepting praise from the President to woo conservatives, while at the same time keeping enough distance so as to not alienate moderatesWhen possible, McCain went after Obama's lack of foreign policy experience.
  
== State by State Breakdown ==
+
The trends heavily favored the Democrats, especially after their major gains in 2006.  Overall, Democrat candidates have a +10% advantage over Republicans in a 'generic' election - the current unpopular President is a Republican, and the economy is treading water.  Also, based on statistical percentages of articles on each candidate, Obama was being focused on by the press far more than McCain.  When McCain chastised Obama for his lack of foreign policy experience and that he hadn't been to Iraq or Afghanistan in years, Obama's campaign set up for him to take a trip to both countries.  While this is expected in politics, the decision of every major network to send a team of reporters to follow him was unprecedented.  Obama spoke to 200,000 people in Berlin in a highly covered speech.  McCain spoke to 50,000 in Buffalo shortly thereafter and barely got a whisper.  Obama's numbers started to rise, but a good deal of the populace was noticing the disparity as 48% of those polled felt the press was trying to help Obama win.
The United States had become so regionally polarized that even though the 2004 presidential election was close nationwide, only nine states had outcomes having less than 4% margin between the candidates:
+
  
State, margin of victory, party that won the state in 2004
+
Obama seemed pleased to coast on his advantages, but McCain realized he needed to shake things up.  He scored by pushing offshore drilling for oil during a time when oil prices were climbing almost daily.  Obama rejected the idea, but the poll numbers started to show a greater percentage of Americans warming to the concept<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/61_say_congress_should_vote_on_offshore_drilling_right_now Offshore Drilling poll]</ref> and McCain's numbers started to improve.  Obama announced he would accept some measure of offshore drilling, and McCain's momentum was halted and his gains retreated by a couple of points.  McCain started an ad campaign that acknowledged Obama's celebrity status, but asking what it meant.  A few days later at the start of August he called out Obama for 'playing the race card' when Obama made a reference to McCain and Bush trying to scare people because he (Obama) doesn't look like other Presidents on dollar bills.  The Democrats fired back, but quickly let the issue drop when poll numbers showed that most voters did consider Obama's statement to be racist.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/only_22_say_mccain_ad_racist_but_over_half_53_see_obama_dollar_bill_comment_that_way]</ref>  The bounce for Obama after the Berlin speech shrank back to pre-trip levels.  While Obama continued to enjoy a slight lead in the polls, McCain continued to keep the race close without either candidate breaking away.
  
#Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem)
+
In mid-August, both candidates came together at the invitation of Pastor [[Rick Warren]] where each was asked a series of the same questions dealing both with political and personal views. While not a debate, it was the first televised forum where both candidates had a chance to express themselves and their positions. Obama hoped to appeal to Christian conservatives by expressing a religious side while McCain hoped to solidify the conservative base by sharing his own conservative and religious credentials. The difference in style between the two was evident as Obama spent more time explaining and expounding on his positions while McCain was more straightforward and received more laughs with his candid speaking styleThe polling numbers continued as they had been.
#Iowa, 0.67% (Repub)
+
#New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub)
+
#New Hampshire, 1.37% (Dem)
+
#Ohio, 2.11% (Repub)
+
#Pennsylvania, 2.50% (Dem)
+
#Nevada, 2.59% (Repub)
+
#Michigan, 3.42% (Dem)
+
#Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem)
+
  
It is assumed that the 2008 election will be similar where close battles in a few states could determine the outcomeIndividual state polling numbers for the 2008 election so far:
+
There was a bounce at the start of the Democratic convention, but not what was expected as McCain suddenly drew even in the race.  The friction between Hillary Clinton and Obama as well as the perceived slight of Hillary when Biden was chosen as the Vice Presidential candidate hurt Obama at a time when his approval was expected to climb.  McCain then made a mistake by airing an ad of Hillary Clinton that 'supported' him.  Clinton was set to speak at the convention and it was no secret that there was bad blood between her and Obama and it was widely believed that her support for Obama would be lukewarm at best.  Instead, apparently galvanized by McCain's hubris before her speech, she came out strongly for Obama and rallied those who supported her.  Obama's pre-convention edge returned.  Obama followed it up with a very strong speech the next day in a huge stadium with fireworks and a Greek temple.  [[Dick Morris]], a former Bill Clinton political strategist who gave advice to the Republicans in 2008, felt that Obama had done such a good job reaching out to the groups that he needed that he would pull ahead by double-digitsIn order to suppress the bounce from the convention, McCain announced his Vice Presidential candidate the next day, a woman, Alaskan governor [[Sarah Palin]].  The bounce for Obama was muted at first, but increased in the following days to surpass pre-convention levels, especially as Sarah Palin came under heavy attack in the media.
  
* Red = McCain leading
+
The edge continued as the Republican convention began. Losing a day to the hurricane, their shortened convention came out strong as well, emphasizing John McCain as a patriot and a maverick for change who is tested and will do what is right for the country regardless of political affiliation.  It was notable for the secondary role that the sitting President played, talking only briefly and barely being mentioned after that.  The convention tied McCain to [[Ronald Reagan]], a popular Republican President who was able to gain the support of a good number of conservative Democrats, an ability that McCain would badly need to emulate.  While the convention had very high ratings starting with Palin's well received speech, it was unclear what the impact would be in the polls.  Indeed, Obama continued to lead directly afterward, but that soon changed with a turn of about 8 points and a slim lead for McCain. The Republican convention had actually more than balanced out the powerful Democratic convention.
* Blue = Obama  leading
+
  
{| class="wikitable"
+
While Obama had stated that his campaign would avoid negative advertising, as it became clear that the bounce from the convention was continuing to last and he might lose the election, his campaign turned more forcefully to negative advertising.  In ads aired since the Republican convention through mid September, McCain's ads were about Obama 56% of the time, but Obama's ads were about his opponents 77% of the time.<ref>http://news.aol.com/article/campaign-ads-not-getting-much-air-time/142625</ref>  Obama also received a large boost from the press which vigorously attacked McCain, but even more so Palin. Obama appeared on ''[[O'Reilly Factor|The O'Reilly Factor]]'' and was treated with civility and respect, even if not with agreement. McCain and his wife appeared on ''The View'' and were treated to openly antagonistic attacks. The constant negative barrage and reporting slowly moved the numbers back to even.
|-
+
! State
+
! Obama (D)
+
! McCain (R)
+
! Source
+
! Updated
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Alabama
+
|36%
+
|51%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alabama/election_2008_alabama_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|6/26/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Alaska
+
|40%
+
|44%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alaska/election_2008_alaska_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
| 7/31/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Arkansas
+
|37%
+
|47%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arkansas/election_2008_arkansas_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/17/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Arizona
+
|40%
+
|49%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/arizona/election_2008_arizona_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|6/25/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|California
+
|50%
+
|38%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/24/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|Colorado
+
|49%
+
|42%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/election_2008_colorado_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/21/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|Connecticut
+
|52%
+
|35%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/connecticut/election_2008_connecticut_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|6/30/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|Florida
+
|46%
+
|45%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/22/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|Iowa
+
|48%
+
|38%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/election_2008_iowa_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/10/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Georgia
+
|39%
+
|48%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/georgia/election_2008_georgia_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/17/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Idaho
+
|37%
+
|53%
+
|[http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/idaho.html DailyKos.com]
+
|7/30/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|Illinois
+
|50%
+
|37%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/illinois/election_2008_illinois_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/08/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Indiana
+
|39%
+
|40%
+
|[http://www.zogby.com/50state/ Zogby]
+
|6/30/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Kansas
+
|32%
+
|52%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/kansas/election_2008_kansas_presidential_election Rasmuseen]
+
|7/14/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Kentucky
+
|39%
+
|49%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/kentucky/election_2008_kentucky_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/29/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|Maine
+
|46%
+
|36%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/17/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|Michigan
+
|47%
+
|39%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/10/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|Minnesota
+
|49%
+
|37%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/22/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Mississippi
+
|41%
+
|52%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mississippi/election_2008_mississippi_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/28/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Missouri
+
|42%
+
|47%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/07/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Montana
+
|44%
+
|45%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/montana/election_2008_montana_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/29/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Nebraska
+
|32%
+
|50%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nebraska/election_2008_nebraska_president Rasmussen]
+
|7/28/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|Nevada
+
|42%
+
|40%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/16/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|New Hampshire
+
|47%
+
|41%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/23/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|New Mexico
+
|46%
+
|41%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/24/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|New York
+
|60%
+
|29%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_york/election_2008_new_york_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|6/30/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|North Carolina
+
|42%
+
|45%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/15/08
+
|-
+
|North Dakota
+
|43%
+
|43%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_dakota/election_2008_north_dakota_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/09/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Ohio
+
|40%
+
|46%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/21/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|Oregon
+
|46%
+
|37%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/oregon/election_2008_oregon_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/15/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|Pennsylvania
+
|47%
+
|42%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2 Rasmussen]
+
|7/22/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|South Dakota
+
|40%
+
|44%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_dakota/election_2008_south_dakota_presidential_election2 Rasmussen]
+
|7/09/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Tennessee
+
|36%
+
|51%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/tennessee/election_2008_tennessee_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|6/24/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Texas
+
|41%
+
|50%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/election_2008_texas_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/30/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Utah
+
|33%
+
|52%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/utah/election_2008_utah_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|6/22/08
+
|-
+
|Virginia
+
|44%
+
|44%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/16/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|Washington
+
|48%
+
|39%
+
|[http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/washington/election_2008_washington_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/09/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|West Virginia
+
|38%
+
|45%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/west_virginia/election_2008_west_virginia_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|6/05/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:blue"
+
|Wisconsin
+
|50%
+
|39%
+
|[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2008_wisconsin_presidential_election Rasmussen]
+
|7/09/08
+
|- style="backround:white; color:red"
+
|Wyoming
+
|40%
+
|53%
+
|[http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/wyoming.html Research2000]
+
|5/29/08
+
|}
+
  
== Analysis of States by Region ==
+
As the negative articles on Palin continued to intensify, some of which just quoted celebrities who had never met her calling her "whacko" or a "hater of women", her first major interview with Gibson was a turning point.  Gibson asked Palin about the Bush Doctrine, but wouldn't define it for her even as she asked questions for clarifications.  When she then answered with her understanding, Gibson rebuked her by implying that she misunderstood the doctrine.  In truth, since the term is only a press invention, it has taken on different meanings at different times and the definition that Palin gave matched one that Gibson himself had used years earlier.  Nevertheless, it was a moment and was jumped on by the press. Those who saw the interview voted heavily that they were now less likely to vote for Palin.  The attack on her had muted her effectiveness, even if it was unjustified.
Because of the [[electoral college]] system in the United States, it is important to analyze the presidential election by each state. These states are grouped into regions.
+
  
=== New England ===
+
Stemming the tide of the McCain campaign's lead became a strong swing for Obama with a series of events that went to the Democratic nominee's favor.  The polls began to tack to Obama's favor with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and a subsequent 500-point drop in the Dow Jones Index.  Then, President Bush sounded a major alarm on the economy and proposed a huge 700 billion dollar rescue plan for the mortgage industry, which sent shock waves through the American populace and swept them with even more fear on the economic picture.  Bush called both Presidential nominees to meet with him and Congress.  It gave Obama a boost in legitimacy, his previous Achilles' heelWhile he had a weak record in accomplishments and showing leadership, the chance to be propelled to a position of prominence handed it to him on a silver platterMoreover, the plan was more problematic among Republicans than it was among Democrats, giving Obama another boost merely by supporting it while putting McCain on more shaky groundBoth candidates supported it once again blurring McCain's advantage in experience if both men were seen as interchangeable in their reaction.
[[Barack Hussein Obama]] is almost certain to win almost every state in this region, which tend to be very [[liberal]].  The only exception is in New Hampshire, where [[John McCain]] is well liked and George Bush won in 2000This state is expected to be competitiveOn the other hand, with only four electoral votes, the impact on the election will not be as great as some other battleground states.   
+
  
=== Mid-Atlantic ===
+
McCain chose to suspend his campaign until a deal on the rescue package was reached, a mistakeThe Democrats could add pork to the plan and make it even more unpalatable to the Republicans, and they didAs the first debate loomed and no deal had been reached, McCain was in a quandaryHe chose to attend the debate under the view that the plan was well under way to being passedAfter the debate the plan was actually defeated and wouldn't be adopted, with more changes, until the following week.
[[New York]], [[Delaware]], and [[Maryland]] are solidly Democrat and will vote for Obama this election[[New Jersey]] is less so, but still has Democratic leanings, and will probably go for Obama. [[Pennsylvania]] is a very important swing state for both candidates, as it has 21 electoral votes, fifth most in the nation, and has both liberal and conservative elementsIn recent years, the state has moved toward becoming DemocratHowever, it is not yet at the point that is safely in the Democratic camp, and will still be focused on heavily by both candidates during this election cycleMcCain still has a very good chance because Obama was unable to connect with the working-class citizens of Pennsylvania during the Democratic primary.
+
  
=== South-Atlantic ===
+
McCain's debate with Obama went well and he was viewed as having done better than expected. Unfortunately for him, Obama was also viewed as doing better than expected and was seen as looking Presidential, further cementing his standing and locking in a lead in the polls that had become rather substantialThe Vice Presidential debate was the most watched in history and Palin was given high marks for her performance, but unfortunately for the Republican ticket, Biden was also on his game that night and also came across wellThere were no changes in the polling numbers and the number of undecided voters began to quickly dwindleThe second and third debates caused little change as well.
[[Washington, D.C.]] is overwhelmingly liberal and will vote for Obama; however, with three electoral votes its significance is limited.  [[Virginia]] has become a competitive state; despite the relative success of Republicans in the state in the past, polling indicates that this year, the state could go either wayDemocrats will work on increasing the voter turnout in the northern part of the state, with a high population of D.C. transplants.  McCain has stayed strong in the state, relying on the southern regions and a strong military presence to support himIn the Carolinas, which usually votes Republican, McCain is seen as having the edge, but Obama may be competitive in these states if he mobilizes the African-American population.  [[Georgia]] is the state where a third-party candidate can make the most difference.  At this point John McCain is still considered the favorite, however, if [[Bob Barr]] takes away a significant portion of the Republican vote the Obama may have a chance, especially if there is a large black turnout[[Florida]] is a very close swing state, most famously known for its role in [[Election 2000]].  In recent years, recognizing, for example Barack Obama's naive declaration that he would meet with leaders such as [[Fidel Castro]], Floridians have leaned Republican.  An important constituency in this state is the [[Jewish]] population, who are continuing to support Obama over McCain, according to recent polling.  Cuban-Americans, who would be most upset with the idea of meeting with Fidel Castro, are also very important.
+
  
=== Deep South ===
+
With Obama spending 110 million dollars on TV advertising in October alone, including 30 minute specials on each of the major networks, McCain was hard pressed to make up the necessary ground to win the election after being outspent by 3 to 1 for TV adds over that time period.  He couldn't count on regular TV to help put in a good word for him either, as late night political jokes are running at a pace of 7 jokes against McCain/Palin for every 1 joke against Obama/Biden and a study of news stories on McCain and Obama since the end of the conventions found that 57% of news stories about McCain were negative while only 29% were for Obama.<ref>http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/22/study-shows-mccain-media-coverage-negative/</ref> A later study by the independent Pew Research Center found that the discrepancy had grown even worse.  McCain had 57% of the articles about him negative while only 14% were positive, while Obama had more positive articles than negative.  The only network to achieve a balance, 40% negative for both, was [[Fox News]].<ref>https://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,445846,00.html</ref>
John McCain will do very well in the deep southThis includes the states of [[Texas]], [[Alabama]], [[Mississippi]], [[Louisiana]], [[Oklahoma]], [[Arkansas]], [[Tennessee]], [[Kentucky]] and [[West Virginia]]. This area is generally [[conservative]], and many of these states have not voted for a Democrat in a long time. Here, John McCain is very popular, and there should be no contest.  Although Obama believes in a fifty-state strategy, it is unlikely that such a strategy will be helpful in getting out the vote in these states apart from the black population.
+
  
 
== General Strategy ==
 
== General Strategy ==
  
McCain's team wants to convince the electorate of the long-term leadership and experience that John McCain has shown in two decades of government service while emphasizing the relative untested nature of Barak Obama.
+
McCain's team emphasized to convince the electorate of the long-term leadership and experience that John McCain has shown in two decades of government service while emphasizing the relative untested nature of Barack Obama.
  
Obama's team wants to convince the electorate that Obama is the candidate of fresh ideas while downplaying his relative inexperience compared to the more seasoned McCain.  When possible, McCain is lumped together with George Bush, an unpopular President.
+
Obama's team stressed that Obama is the candidate of fresh ideas while downplaying his relative inexperience compared to the more seasoned McCain.  When possible, McCain is lumped together with George Bush, an unpopular President.
 
    
 
    
== Republican Strategy ==
+
===Republican Strategy===
 +
With more limited funding than his Democratic rival, McCain had favored open town hall meetings to attract the greatest number of people.  He is focusing his advertising on swing states.  He also asked for open debates with Obama of the Lincoln-Douglas variety where candidates can talk directly to each other, but this was not accepted by the Democratic camp which prefers the current structured format.
  
The Republican Party nominee is Senator John McCain, who received a majority of the delegates on the March 4th primaries.   
+
McCain will highlight his record of leadership, his service to his country and stress that as President he can be counted on to keep America safe from outside threatsMcCain's strongest supporters are the elderly - the group that most wants stability.
  
===Swing States (Great Lakes Region)===
+
McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential nominee was a departure from what was expected and helped to show that he would go down paths that the Republican party had not done in the pastMcCain has touted Palin's record of standing up to the Alaska Republican party when she resigned from an Ethics Commission in protest over a lack of ethics of fellow commissioners, as well as when she ran against, and beat, then-incumbent Governor [[Frank Murkowski]] in the Republican primary in 2006McCain will continue to tout her as a "maverick" to complement his own maverick image that he is trying to emphasize. Last, by choosing a female running mate, McCain hoped to pick up the votes of female voters disaffected with the perceived slight of Hillary Clinton by ObamaPrior to the start of the Democratic convention, 30% of Hillary's supporters had still not backed Obama and there was a good deal of bad blood between the two.
Strategists believe that the Republican presidential nominee must win Wisconsin or Minnesota, and hold Iowa but that the outcome in New Mexico, which has only 5 electoral votes, is irrelevantMinnesota's margin of victory for the Democrats in 2004 probably places it out of reach for Republicans in 2008This is confirmed by recent pollingHowever, due to the location of the Republican Convention in Minnesota, and if Governor Pawlenty is chosen as McCain's vice presidential pick, the state, with ten electoral votes, can come back into play.
+
  
===Other Important Swing States===
+
With the unfolding of the campaign season and watching the Democratic strategy and how it was playing out in the press and polls, the McCain campaign decided not to cede the moniker of change to Obama, but rather to take it upon themselves by emphasizing that McCain has a track record of change - while Obama does notThe McCain campaign feels it needs to have the voters ask who can be trusted more to get the job done, and if that occurs, then they have the advantage.
Moreover, it is very important for republicans to hold Ohio and Florida.  Fortunately, both states have tended to lean republican in the last two presidential elections.  Although Florida was disputed in election 2000, it went to Bush undeniably in 2004Virginia will also be heavily contested this year.
+
  
 +
With the selection of Palin, and the energy it has brought to the conservative base, McCain has taken to larger rallies, as opposed to town hall meetings and press conferences.  By mid-September, he had gone four weeks without a town hall, and three weeks without a press conference, instead sticking to larger engagements, appearing alongside his vice presidential nominee, with larger crowds than he had experienced earlier in his campaign.
  
== Democratic Strategy ==
+
===Democratic Strategy===
As usual, the best strategy for Democrats is a hot topic for debate among members of that party and independent [[pundits]].  [[Daily Kos]] can occasionally provide arguments on the strategy that should be pursued by Democrats, although most posts there are simply rants against the Republicans or Democrats deemed insufficiently [[liberal]], which led [[Barack Obama]] to say in 2006 that he found the site "predictable."  A majority of Democrats are confident that the cratering popularity of [[President]] [[George W. Bush]] and particularly [[Operation Iraqi Freedom]] puts them in a highly favorable position for 2008, to the extent it may even be their race to lose.
+
Democrats are confident that the low popularity of President Bush and particularly [[Operation Iraqi Freedom]], which John McCain supports, puts them in a highly favorable position for 2008.  They have been cautious in the Iraq arena realizing that 'The Surge' worked and they were on the wrong end of that issue.  Focus is being put on a timeline for troops coming home, a position that most of the American population favors.
  
However, evaluating the race in [[Electoral College]] terms forces caution upon the DemocratsBetween the [[United States presidential election, 2000]] and the [[United States Presidential election, 2004]], only three states budged from one party to the other: New Mexico (from Democratic to Republican), Iowa (from Democratic to Republican) and New Hampshire (from Republican to Democratic). The American people would seem to be not only strongly divided, but in the vast majority of states, faithful over a period of years to their chosen parties.  Not even the [[September 11, 2001 attacks]] could persuade the people of New York to vote Republican, for example, and it is highly unlikely that the depopulation of [[New Orleans]] will be considered a good reason for the majority of voters in Louisiana to become Democrats.  The phrase [[Second Coming Republicans]] (or Democrats) takes on new meaning in light of the relative lack of party-switching in response to these events.
+
Democrats believe it is their race to lose, but also realize they had a good chance to win the last two Presidential elections and came up short each timeGeneral wisdom also states that a poor economy favors Obama, so they will emphasize the dire times in this area. As in past elections, differences between those who have obtained a high income level and those who have not will be emphasized. In fact, the Democratic strategy in many ways mirrors that of their strategy in 1992 when the Democrat-controlled Congress deliberately caused economic disruption, knowing full well that the public would blame sitting president [[George H.W. Bush]], and thereby allowing [[Bill Clinton]] to win that year's presidential race.
  
Had all three of the above [[swing state]]s voted Democratic in 2000, and everything else remained the same, [[Al Gore]] would have become President in 2001, so this is the result Democrats should especially aim forThis does not necessarily mean they can let their guard down in the states that voted their way in both of the last two elections.
+
Favored by the young, Democrats will try hard to encourage and get out the young vote, a task that has proven more difficult than expected in the last two election cycles.  To their advantage, Obama made his vice presidential pick via text message to cell phone numbers registered on the siteThe announcement went to 3 million cell phones, a useful database for "[[Get Out The Vote]]" (GOTV) efforts, when voters may not be home or reachable on their [[landline]].
  
Evaluating the race by historic analogy, the last Senator elected President and the last Northern Democrat elected President were the same person:  [[John F. Kennedy]], in the [[United States presidential election, 1960]].  If this pattern continues to hold true this cycle, the candidate best positioned this year was [[Bill Richardson]], who was cast somewhat against type as a member of the [[National Rifle Association]] and also has the distinction of being from one of the three swing states cited aboveIn strong second place would probably be [[John Edwards]], but it has been difficult for Democrats to carry the state of [[North Carolina]] in a Presidential election[[Lyndon B. Johnson]] was the last person to do so, just after writing off most of the South for the Democratic Party by passing the [[1964 Civil Rights Act]]Still, the Democrats, as pointed out above, feel for the most part that this is their race to lose and may "let it all hang out" in the belief that any of their first-tier candidates will handily defeat a generic Republican candidate.
+
As an extension of the DNC's strategy in the 2006 elections, led by [[Howard Dean]], Barack Obama has been working towards a "50-state strategy." The campaign is working to place campaign offices throughout the country with a focus on voter registrationThe increase in the rolls of Democratic voters from the primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Obama played out well for the Democrats and puts pressure on Senator McCain even in typically red states, and more specifically, "Lean Republican" states, to use the Cook Political Report's termIn addition, with a fundraising advantage, Obama is airing ads in those tight states forcing McCain to make decisions about whether to use funds to match ads and campaign efforts in those states or rely on historical results that those states will support him and focus funds in traditional toss-up states instead.
  
The ''move on masses'' of the blogosphere require that any Democratic candidate frame the election as an attack on George Bush. Since they can't run against the President, the attack will be on ''Bush Politics'', chiefly the Iraq War and the Bush tax cuts. That stance will be echoed repeatedly regardless of whatever real situation taking place in Iraq (where American forces turned over strategic control of the last province, Al Anbar) or in the economy (where the Dow hit record highs, before accounting for inflation, as recently as October 2007 and unemployment is near all time lows). The blogosphere led democrats to be overconfident in 2004, over estimating their voting support among young people who actually vote. However, with Democrats in control of both houses this election remains critical.
+
==Fundraising==
  
==Third parties and Independents==
+
Barack Obama had a significant edge over Hillary Clinton in the fundraising department during their contest for the Democratic nomination, but both actually set records for raising money and both raised far more money than John McCain.  McCain didn't have to spend as much since he locked up the Republican nomination much earlier than Obama locked up the Democratic.  Both Obama and McCain said they would accept government funds—which would also cap how much the candidates could raise on their own—but Obama, who could presumably raise more through his own sources, changed his mind and later declinedMuch of McCain's war chest will come from the Republican Party in general, which has more money to spend than their Democratic counterparts.  McCain's campaign raised $47 million in August, a very sizable figure for him so far and a personal record, but not as strong as Obama's best months. In the same time period, Obama set a record with $66 million. Obama, still having an edge in fundraising that has continued throughout his run for the Presidency, saw $10 million collected the day after Sarah Palin's strongly received convention speech, a new one day record.<ref>[http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/04/after-palin-speech-obama-has-record-10-million-day/ After Palin speech, Obama has record $10 million day]</ref> The Palin announcement has been good for John McCain's fundraising as well.
===Libertarian party===
+
The [[Libertarian Party]] selected former Representative [[Bob Barr]] of [[Georgia]] as its 2008 presidential candidate on May 25, 2008.<ref>http://www.lpconvention.org/</ref> Former Democratic canididate [[Mike Gravel]] sought the Libertarian nomination but lost to Barr.<ref> http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/05/25/libertarians-pick-barr-as-presidential-nominee/ </ref>
+
  
Barr has, on his campaign website, linked to a proposed Libertarian strategy laid out by a member of his campaign staff. Although Barr has not officially claimed this as his strategy, the link appears to be a tacit endorsement. The strategy is called the "gold states" strategy. Instead of waging a 50-state campaign with the aim of securing 270 electoral votes and an outright electoral college win, Barr would focus on about 18-20 states where neither Obama or McCain has strong support. Winning that number of states could net Barr from 180-200 electoral votes, and would exceed either Obama or McCain's number and prevent either of them from reaching 270. Under US Constitution Amendment 12, with no candidate having an electoral vote majority, the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives, which would have to choose the president from the top three electoral vote getters. At this stage, Barr could argue that as the top electoral vote recipient, he should become the President, and might draw support from conservative Democrats displeased with Obama's positions, and from Republicans who dislike McCain.
+
Obama set a new record of $150 million raised in September and over $600 million overall.<ref>http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/20/obama-raises-record-breaking-m/</ref>  Obama's camp does not release information on who contributes to the campaign.
  
Although winning the largest number of electoral votes would assist Barr in making such an argument, it is not absolutely necessary. Given the close divide in the electoral vote in the 2000 and 2004 elections, Barr could throw the vote into the House by winning a handful of states to garner perhaps 15-20 electoral votes.
 
  
The House of Representatives currently has a Democratic majority, but it is important to note that under the US Constitution Amendment 12, the vote is not a straight vote of the members of the House. Instead, each ''State'' gets one single vote, and that vote is determined by the members from that State. Although many large states like California and New York have large Democratic majorities, these will be balanced by the many smaller Southern and Midwestern states with Republican majorities. A handful of states have an even number of House members, and are split down the middle for control.
 
  
===Constitution Party===
+
==Conventions==
The [[Constitution Party]] held its convention in Kansas City, Kansas, on April 24 through April 27.  The party nominated Pastor [[Chuck Baldwin]] over former U.N. Ambassador and Republican presidential candidate [[Alan Keyes]].<ref> http://www.constitutionparty.com/news.php?aid=751 </ref>
+
  
===Green Party===
+
===Democratic National Convention===
[[Cynthia McKinney]], who was defeated in her bid for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives after voting against the [[Iraq War]] and being arrested on battery charges after striking a Capitol Hill police officer, won the [[environmentalist]] [[Green Party]]'s nomination for president at the party convention July 12, 2008. Running for Vice President on the Green ticket is "Hip-Hop activist and journalist" Rosa Clemente.<ref>http://www.gp.org/press/pr-national.php?ID=79</ref>
+
{{Main|2008 Democratic National Convention}}
  
===Independents===
+
The 2008 Democratic National Convention was held in [[Denver]], [[Colorado]], from August 25 to August 27 at Pepsi Center. There, Senator Obama and his running mate were selected to be the party nominee's. Barack Obama will accepted the party's nomination in front of a crowd of more than 75,000 in a free, open event held at INVESCO Field at Mile High, in a platform resemblant to a Greek temple. House Speaker [[Nancy Pelosi]] is the Permanent Chair of the Convention.
[[Ralph Nader]] announced his independent candidacy for president on February 24, 2008, to focus on "stem[ming] corporate crime and Pentagon waste and promot[ing] labor rights", issues he feels are ignored by the main parties.<ref>http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Feb24/0,4670,APNader,00.html</ref> His [[running mate]] is former President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors [[Matt Gonzalez]].<ref>http://www.votenader.org/about/matt-gonzalez/</ref>
+
  
New York City Mayor [[Michael Bloomberg]] has been frequently mentioned as a possible independent candidate for the 2008 presidential election and fueled that speculation when he left the Republican Party in June 2007. However, he declared in a February 28, 2008, op-ed article in ''The New York Times'', "I am not—and will not be—a candidate for president," but added that "[i]f a candidate takes an independent, nonpartisan approach—and embraces practical solutions that challenge party orthodoxy—I’ll join others in helping that candidate win the White House."<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/28/opinion/28mike.html?_r=1&oref=slogin "I'm Not Running for President, but..."]</ref>
+
The convention had a rocky start as friction between supporters of Obama and the Clintons was not resolved. Instead of Obama getting a bump in the polls, his support actually declined.  The Democrats also seemed to be at odds on finding a unifying strategy for how hard to attack John McCain and how to present it.  As Democratic pundit James Carville said in an interview on [[CNN]], "If this party has a message, it's done a <heck> of a job hiding it tonight, I promise you that."<ref>http://news.yahoo.com/story//ap/20080826/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_convention_rdp</ref>
  
 +
A bleak convention was turned around by the Clintons. Infighting between Obama and Hillary continued through the day of her speech, but a comprise was reached, and, beyond expectations, she gave a rousing speech for Obama - possibly as an angry response to McCain's latest ad that showed her 'supporting' him. Bill Clinton the next night also praised Obama, something that he failed to effectively do in 2000 for Al Gore when he centered on his accomplishments and gave little more than lip service to Gore with statements amounting to 'and Al Gore was there too'. The convention, possibly remembering that, gave him the topic he was to speak on instead of choosing his own. Clinton was angered, but it worked. He came through. By the time Obama spoke on the last night, the theme that was missing at first was clear, and Obama mixed a message of attacking McCain with the need for change and even outlining some expensive programs that would appeal to the target populace who has been lukewarm to him. From a political point of view, the convention did what it was supposed to.
  
==Historical Information==
 
  
===Withdrawn Republican Party Candidates===
+
===Republican National Convention===
Senator [[Sam Brownback]], [[Kansas]], withdrew October 19, 2007, citing a lack of funding.<ref>http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ifK7vLWH4aU4urzB-4bSX1u4QF9QD8SC0EI00</ref>  Brownback also had done poorly at key conservative milestones, such as the [[Value Voters Debate]].<ref>http://www.valuesvoterdebate.com/pollresults.cfm, Brownback lost sizably to [[Mike Huckabee]].</ref>  He endorsed Senator [[John McCain]] of [[Arizona]]. 
+
{{Main|2008 Republican National Convention}}
  
Former Governor [[Jim Gilmore]], [[Virginia]], withdrew July 14, 2007
+
The 2008 Republican National Convention was held in [[Saint Paul]], [[Minnesota]] from September 1 ([[Labor Day]]) until September 4. The presumptive nominee was Senator McCain. The location has political significance in that [[Minnesota]] will likely be a close state during the general election, as will its neighboring states [[Wisconsin]] and [[Iowa]].
  
Former Mayor [[Rudy Giuliani|Rudolph Giuliani]], [[New York City]] He withdrew after a defeat in [[Florida]], on which he had depended on heavilyHe endorsed John McCain afterwards.   
+
The convention schedule had to be altered due to the upcoming landfall of [[Hurricane Gustav]]. The first day almost entirely focused on raising money for Hurricane relief.  This led to a shortened three day convention instead of four and there was some shuffling of who was speaking on which day to accommodate the suddenly shortened time span.  In a surprise, George W. Bush was only delivered an eight-minute speech by satellite.  In another surprise Sarah Palin's speech was watched by as many people as saw Obama give his acceptance speech on the closing night of the Democratic convention, as over 40 million people tuned in.<ref>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26548482/</ref> She was considered the highlight of the convention, even surpassing John McCain's speech the next day, and was noted for doing an exceptional jobRecognizing the strong asset that they have in her, the Republicans made reference to her many times on the last day of the convention.  McCain, not known for being comfortable reading prepared speeches in a convention hall, delivered a solid speech.  While Obama continued to enjoy a lead in the polls, it changed quickly thereafter to a slight McCain-Palin edge.  The Republican convention more than canceled out a very powerful Democratic convention.
  
Former Governor [[Mike Huckabee]], [[Arkansas]]. He withdrew from the race once McCain recieved the 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination.  He also promised to support McCain as the nominee, thus giving his endorsement to him.
+
====Leftist violence====
 +
[[File:SDS at the RNC.jpg|left|thumb|290px|Poster circulated by [[community organizer]]s. Other posters depicted rock throwers with the caption, "Shut Down the RNC!," dead elephants, and derogatory and demeaning comments about gay Republicans. [https://www.facebook.com/photo_search.php?oid=4893988286&view=all] ]]
  
Representative [[Duncan Hunter]], [[California]] 52nd, withdrew January 19, 2008 and endorsed Governor Mike Huckabee.
+
[[Progressives for Obama]] shares a huge membership overlap with the Movement for a Democratic Society (MDS), a group of former [[Students for a Democratic Society]] (SDS) members and sympathisers. MDS re-founded SDS in 2006 for a new generation of college students and functions as a support group for SDS's 130 college chapters. Independent researcher Trevor Louden refers to MDS as "the brains behind the SDS brawn."  The reconstituted SDS was very prominent in the violence at the Republican National Convention at St Paul.<ref>[http://newzeal.blogspot.com/2008/09/obama-file-30-former-terrorists-bill.html Obama File 30: Former Terrorists [[Bill Ayers]] and [[Bernardine Dohrn]] Involved in Key Pro-Obama Organisation,] Trevor Louden, New Zeal blog, September 21, 2008.</ref> The founder of [[ACORN]], Wade Rathke, denouncd<ref>[http://chieforganizer.org/2009/01/31/common-ground-infiltrator/ Common Ground Infiltrator,] Wade Rathke: Chief Organizer Blog, January 31, 2009. Retrieved March 14, 2010.</ref> an FBI informer who foiled a [[terrorist]] plot to kill delegates at the Republican Convention.<ref>[http://spectator.org/blog/2009/09/13/acorn-founder-wade-rathke-want ACORN Founder Wade Rathke Wanted Terrorist Attack on Republican Convention to Succeed,] Matthew Vadum, American Spectator, 9.13.09</ref>
  
Representative [[Ron Paul]], [[Texas]] 14th, withdrew June 12, 2008.
+
==Vice Presidential Candidates==
  
Former Governor [[Mitt Romney]], [[Massachusetts]], suspended his campaign after poor showings on [[Super Tuesday]] and later endorsed John McCain.   
+
===Democratic Vice-Presidential Candidate===
 +
On August 23, Senator Barack Obama announced, via text message to 3 million cell phone numbers of his supporters, his nomination of Joseph Biden to Vice President.  Biden's selection was considered to be a prudent move by Obama, filling a hole in his own foreign policy experience that McCain could exploit.  With the implosion of [[John Edwards]], Biden was widely expected to be the choice.  In order to help build up suspense, Biden said he was not chosen when he spoke to the press the day before, only to be shown as the Vice Presidential candidate the next day.  A long-term senator and Washington insider with over two decades of service in the Senate, his earlier 1988 plagiarism scandal and frequent gaffes (including one in which he insulted Obama in a racist manner during the 2008 election) were deemed to be less negative than the positive that his strong experience credentials could bring to the race.   
  
Representative [[Tom Tancredo]], [[Colorado]] 6th, withdrew December 20, 2007. He endorsed fmr. Governor [[Mitt Romney]] of [[Massachusetts]]. 
+
[[Image:06 biden.gif|thumb|left|100px|Joseph Biden]]
  
Former Senator [[Fred Thompson]], [[Tennessee]].  He endorsed [[John McCain]] of Arizona. 
+
<br>
  
Former Governor and HS Secretary [[Tommy Thompson]], withdrew August 12, 2007.  He endorsed fmr. Mayor [[Rudy Giuliani]] of [[New York]].
+
<br>
  
===Potential Republican Candidates Who Declined to Run===
 
*Former Senator [[George Allen]], Virginia - endorsed Fred Thompson.
 
*Former Governor [[Jeb Bush]], [[Florida]] - endorsed John McCain. 
 
*[[Vice President]] [[Dick Cheney]]
 
*Former Senate Majority Leader [[Bill Frist]], Tennessee
 
*Former [[Speaker of the House]] [[Newt Gingrich]], [[Georgia]]
 
*Senator [[Chuck Hagel]], [[Nebraska]]
 
*Former Governor [[George Pataki]], New York
 
*[[Secretary of State]] [[Condoleezza Rice]]
 
*Governor [[Mark Sanford]], [[South Carolina]]
 
*Former Senator [[Rick Santorum]], [[Pennsylvania]]
 
  
===Potential Republican Vice-Presidential Candidates===
 
*[[Haley Barbour]] - Governor of [[Mississippi]]
 
*[[Matt Blunt]] - Governor of [[Missouri]]
 
*[[Sam Brownback]] - U.S. Senator from [[Kansas]]
 
*[[Jeb Bush]] - former Governor of [[Florida]]
 
*[[Tom Coburn]] - U.S. Senator from [[Oklahoma]]
 
*[[Charlie Crist]] - Governor of [[Florida]]]
 
*[[Jim DeMint]] - U.S. Senator from [[South Carolina]]
 
*[[Bill Frist]] - former U.S. Senator and Senate Majority Leader from [[Tennessee]]
 
*[[Rudy Giuliani]] - former Mayor of [[New York City]]
 
*[[Lindsey Graham]] - U.S. Senator from [[South Carolina]]
 
*[[Mike Huckabee]] - former Governor of [[Arkansas]]
 
*[[Kay Bailey Hutchison]] - U.S. Senator from [[Texas]]
 
*[[Bobby Jindal]] - Governor of [[Louisiana]]
 
*[[Joe Lieberman]] - U.S. Senator from [[Connecticut]]
 
*[[Bill Owens]] - former Governor of [[Colorado]]
 
*[[Sarah Palin]] - Governor of [[Alaska]]
 
*[[Tim Pawlenty]] - Governor of [[Minnesota]]
 
*[[David Petraeus]] - Commanding General, Multinational Force [[Iraq]]
 
*[[Colin Powell]] - former United States [[Secretary of State]]
 
*[[Condoleezza Rice]] - United States Secretary of State
 
*[[Tom Ridge]] - former Homeland Security Secretary and Former Governor of [[Pennsylvania]]
 
*[[Mitt Romney]] - former Governor of [[Massachusetts]]
 
*[[Mark Sanford]] - Governor of South Carolina
 
*[[Michael Steele]] - former Lt. Governor of [[Maryland]]
 
*[[Fred Thompson]] - former U.S. Senator from Tennessee
 
*[[John Thune]] - U.S. Senator from [[South Dakota]]
 
  
=== Withdrawn Democratic Party candidates ===
+
===Republican Vice-Presidential Candidate===
 +
[[Image:Sarah Palin.jpg|thumb|left|100px|thumb]]
 +
*Governor [[Sarah Palin]] of [[Alaska]] was announced as John McCain's choice early on Friday, August 29, the day after the Democratic convention ended.  A surprise choice not even considered by the press to be on McCain's short list, her selection caught the political world off guard.  It had been expected that [[Mitt Romney]] would earn the honor, but McCain had other ideas.  At first denigrated by the people in the Obama campaign, Obama's own statement was one of cautious neutrality to feel out what impact her selection would have on the race.
  
Senator [[Joseph Biden]], [[Delaware]]<ref> http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/04/chris-dodd-abandons-presidential-campaign-after-poor-showing-in-iowa/ </ref>  He withdrew after a disappointing finish in the [[Iowa Caucus]]. 
+
<br>
  
Senator [[Hillary Clinton]], [[New York]] Suspended her campaign after Obama reached the number of needed delegates.  She endorsed him shortly afterwards. 
 
  
Senator [[Chris Dodd]], [[Connecticut]]<ref> http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/04/chris-dodd-abandons-presidential-campaign-after-poor-showing-in-iowa/</ref> He withdrew after a disappointing finish in the [[Iowa Caucus]] and later endorsed Senator [[Barack Obama]].   
+
In an interesting twist, the selection of the Vice Presidential candidates changed the dynamics of the race. By Obama picking Biden, he helped to fill the hole that McCain had been attacking dealing with a lack of foreign policy experienceMcCain's strongest point, experience, would lose some of its luster.  But the selection of Biden, and the passing over of Hillary Clinton, left another opening.  By aligning himself with someone who has been a Democratic stalwart, Obama's claim to change became less pronounced.  McCain seized upon that to select a Vice President that no one expected, and a woman, and steal some of the Democratic thunder.  Her lack of foreign policy experience would cut into the experience angle that had been in play earlier, but her own maverick streak in becoming governor by ousting another Republican, combined with John McCain's maverick choice in selecting her led to a new emphasis on McCain's own maverick past. Palin arguably had more "executive" / managerial experience than either McCain, Biden or, notably, Obama.  Suddenly he saw an opportunity to steal the moniker of change that Obama had been wearing, and he went for itSuch a change in position occurring from the Vice Presidential selection is rare in Presidential politics.
  
Former Senator [[John Edwards]], [[North Carolina]].  He withdrew after losing in all of the early primary states.  He later endorsed Senator Obama after Obama won the North Carolina primary.
+
==Debates==
 +
===Presidential Debates===
 +
{{Main|2008 Presidential Debates}}
  
Former Senator [[Mike Gravel]], [[Alaska]].  He withdrew to seek the Libertarian party nomination (which he lost to Bob Barr.) He also endorsed Green Party Candidate, Jesse Johnson. <ref> http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03/12/democratic-candidate-gravel-endorses-green-party-presidential-hopeful/ </ref>
+
There have been three [[Presidential Debates|presidential debates]] for the 2008 election seasonThe first debate on September 26 discussed "Foreign Policy & National Security" and also dealt at length with the economic crisis. The result was a statistical draw where both candidates did better than expected in the eyes of the publicThe longer term impact worked out well for Obama who already had a lead going in, and benefited from solidifying that position.
  
Representative [[Dennis Kucinich]], [[Ohio]] 10th<ref> http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/24/kucinich-drops-presidential-bid/ </ref> He withdrew to keep his seat in the House of Representatives.  
+
The second debate on October 7, followed a town hall-style. The questions came from audience members and the Internet, as chosen by the moderator. Again the result was a statistical draw as far as who was considered to be the winner. But with time running out for McCain, he needed something to make the people move his way, and that required a clear breakthrough that never happened
  
Governor [[Bill Richardson]], [[New Mexico]]<ref>
+
The final debate was held on October 15 concerned "Domestic and Economic Policy." Both candidates were again viewed as having done well, which was a tactical defeat for McCain as the poll numbers showed only small changes.
[http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/09/ap-bill-richardson-drops-out-of-democratic-presidential-race/ AP: Bill Richardson Drops Out of Democratic Presidential Race], [[Associated Press]], [[Fox News Channel]], January 9, 2008</ref> He withdrew after twin fourth-place finishes (in Iowa and New Hampshire) that showed his credentials could not compete with his rivals’ star power.  He later endorsed Senator Obama.
+
  
Former Governor [[Tom Vilsack]], IowaHe endorsed [[Hillary Clinton]] of [[New York]]
+
===Vice Presidential Debate===
 +
There was one vice presidential debate held on October 2.  Palin did much better than expected, but Biden was also in top formNo clear winner emerged and the poll numbers remained largely unchanged, a strategic win for the Democratic ticket that only had to maintain their lead to win the election.  The number of people who watched the debate was an alltime record for a Vice Presidential debate, and was viewed by more people than any of the three Presidential debates.
  
===Potential Democratic Candidates Who Declined to Run===
+
==Third parties and Independents==
*Senator [[Evan Bayh]], [[Indiana]] - endorsed Hillary Clinton
+
*[[General]] [[Wesley Clark]] (Ret.) - endorsed Hillary Clinton
+
*Former Senate Minority Leader [[Tom Daschle]], [[South Dakota]]
+
*Former Governor and current DNC Chairman [[Howard Dean]], [[Vermont]]
+
*Senator [[Russ Feingold]], [[Wisconsin]]
+
*Former Vice President [[Al Gore]], [[Tennessee]]
+
*Senator [[John Kerry]], Massachusetts - endorsed Barack Obama
+
*Rev. [[Al Sharpton]]
+
*Former Governor [[Mark Warner]], [[Virginia]]
+
  
===Potential Democratic Vice-Presidential Candidates===
+
As usual there were a number of third party candidates, but none made much of an impact. Briefly the Libertarian [[Bob Barr]] had enough strength to become a spoiler for McCain.  He faded quickly. See [[United States Presidential Election, 2008 -- Third Party Candidates]].
*Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana
+
*Senator Joe Biden of Delaware
+
*General Wesley Clark (Ret.)
+
*Senator Hillary Clinton of New York
+
*Former Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota
+
*Former Senator and 2004 Vice-Presidential nominee John Edwards of North Carolina
+
*Governor [[Ed Rendell]] of [[Pennsylvania]]
+
*Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico
+
*Governor [[Ted Strickland]] of [[Ohio]]
+
*Former Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa
+
*Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia
+
*Former Governor Mark Warner of Virginia
+
*Senator [[Jim Webb]] of Virginia
+
  
 +
==Primaries==
  
==Primaries and Caucuses==
+
''For expanded primary information, see [[United States Presidential Election, 2008 - Primaries]]''
===Iowa Caucus: January 3, 2008===
+
The first caucus in the 2008 presidential election cycle was the [[Iowa Caucus]].  The Democratic winner of the Iowa caucus was [[Barack Obama]], who managed to beat national frontrunner [[Hillary Clinton]] and former [[North Carolina]] Senator, [[John Edwards]].  The official results were:
+
{| style="backround:white; color:blue" border="1" class="wikitable"
+
|+ Dem. Iowa caucus results
+
|-
+
! candidates
+
! percentage
+
|-
+
| Barack Obama
+
| 38%
+
|-
+
| John Edwards
+
| 30%
+
|-
+
| Hillary Clinton
+
| 29%
+
|-
+
| Bill Richardson
+
| 2%
+
|-
+
| Joseph Biden
+
| 1%
+
|-
+
|}
+
Other candidates such as, [[Chris Dodd]], [[Dennis Kucinich]] and [[Mike Gravel]] did not gain a significant percentage.  Because of the Iowa results, [[Barack Obama]] was expected now to beat [[Hillary Clinton]] in the upcoming [[New Hampshire]] primary.  Also, [[Joe Biden]] and [[Chris Dodd]] both withdrew from the race because of their low showings in the Iowa caucus. 
+
  
On the Republican side, [[Mike Huckabee]] defeated [[Mitt Romney]] by an even closer margin.  The results were:
+
The primary season for both the [[Republican Party]] and the [[Democratic Party]] officially began on January 3, 2008 with the [[Iowa Caucus]]es and ended on June 3, 2008.<ref>http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/calendar/</ref> The 2008 election cycle saw a major shift in the primary election calendar, frontloading many primaries into early February.<ref>http://www.miamiherald.com/515/story/43160.html</ref>
{| {| style="backround:white; color:red" border="1" class="wikitable"
+
|+ GOP Iowa caucus results
+
John McCain had to get his footing at first, but was pretty much assured the Republican nomination after [[Super Tuesday]].  Barack Obama had a much tougher road, but rode out a string of victories in February to eventually outlast Clinton and take the nomination.  During that time he had raised more money than any other candidate in history giving him a huge boost, a trend that would continue into the general election.
|-
+
! Candidate
+
! percentage
+
|-
+
| Mike Huckabee
+
| 34%
+
|-
+
| Mitt Romney
+
| 25%
+
|-
+
| Fred Thompson
+
| 13%
+
|-
+
| John McCain
+
| 13%
+
|-
+
| Ron Paul
+
| 10%
+
|-
+
| Rudy Giuliani
+
| 3%
+
|}
+
  
Candidates such as [[Duncan Hunter]], [[Alan Keyes]] and [[John H. Cox]] didn't come out with a significant percentage.  Romney's loss in [[Iowa]] set him back in the upcoming primary in [[New Hampshire]].  Huckabee's win however gave him surge in [[New Hampshire]] where he had before been very low in the polls.  McCain's unexpected high showing in Iowa also gave him a little boost in New Hampshire.
+
==See also==
 +
*[[Previous Breaking News/2008 Presidential Election|Articles about the '''2008 Presidential Election''' from previous "Breaking News"]]
 +
*[[Barack Hussein Obama 2008 Presidential campaign]]
 +
*[[John McCain 2008 Presidential Campaign]]
 +
*[[Hillary Clinton 2008 presidential campaign]]
  
===New Hampshire Primary: January 8, 2008===
+
==Further reading==
The next milestone after the Iowa caucus was the New Hampshire primary.  (Only the Republican Wyoming primary occurred on January 5, which was won by Romney.) On the Republican side, Mitt Romney's defeat in Iowa helped his most significant opponent, John McCain. Huckabee's victory in Iowa helped boost his campaign and gave him a higher showing than even he had expected.  On the Democratic side, Obama's defeat of Clinton and Edwards led to the polls usually predicting a Obama victory in New Hampshire. 
+
* Abramowitz, Allen Iand Larry J. Sabato. ''The 2008 Elections'' (2008), state by state statistical analysis
The winner for the Repbulicans was John McCain and for the Democrats Hillary Clinton.  The Democratic results were:
+
* Balz, Dan, and Haynes Johnson. ''The Battle for America 2008: The Story of an Extraordinary Election'' (2009), by leading reporters with inside information
 +
* Nelson, Michael. ''The Elections of 2008'' (2009), factual summary [https://www.amazon.com/Elections-2008-Year/dp/0872895696/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1249801779&sr=1-4 except and text search]
 +
* Todd, Chuck, and Sheldon Gawiser. ''How Barack Obama Won: A State-by-State Guide to the Historic 2008 Presidential Election'' (2009) analysis of exit polls for each state [https://www.amazon.com/How-Barack-Obama-State-State/dp/030747366X/ref=sr_1_14?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1249801899&sr=1-14 excerpt and text search]
  
{| {| style="backround:white; color:blue" border="1" class="wikitable"
+
== References ==
|+ Dem. NH primary results
+
{{Reflist}}
|-
+
! Candidate
+
! percentage
+
|-
+
| Hillary Clinton
+
| 39%
+
|-
+
| Barack Obama
+
| 36%
+
|-
+
| John Edwards
+
| 17%
+
|-
+
| Bill Richardson
+
| 5%
+
|-
+
| Dennis Kucinich
+
| 1%
+
|}
+
  
Hillary Clinton's win was a setback for Obama and much-needed victory for Clinton.  The polls reliability was most hurt with these results.  (Mike Gravel didn't reach a significant percentage.) 
+
{{2008 presidential candidates}}
The Republican results were:
+
  
{| {| style="backround:white; color:red" border="1" class="wikitable"
+
{{DEFAULTSORT:2008, United States presidential election,}}
|+ GOP NH primary results
+
|-
+
! Candidate
+
! percentage
+
|-
+
| John McCain
+
| 37%
+
|-
+
| Mitt Romney
+
| 31%
+
|-
+
| Mike Huckabee
+
| 11%
+
|-
+
| Rudy Giuliani
+
| 9%
+
|-
+
| Ron Paul
+
| 8%
+
|-
+
| Fred Thompson
+
| 1%
+
|-
+
| Duncan Hunter
+
| 1%
+
|}
+
  
These results put the very survival of Mitt Romney on the line and intensified the upcoming Michigan primary.  John McCain's victory helped boost his campaign and he predicted to go on to victory in Michigan and South Carolina.  Huckabee also did well and placed an unusual third place.
+
[[Category:Obama Presidency]]
 
+
[[Category:United States Presidential Elections]]
===Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina===
+
[[Category:United States Presidential Election, 2008]]
Romney's second-place defeat in Iowa and New Hampshire, caused his campaign to focus all it's attention on the Michigan Primary on January 15th.  He managed to defeat his rivals, John McCain and Mike Huckabee. 
+
[[Category:Featured articles]]
Since the Democrats had taken Michigan's delegates away, most of the candidates didn't even bother to get on the ballot.  Clinton won easily, because she was one of the only major candidates to be even on the ballot. 
+
Romney and the Democrats turned their attention to the Nevada caucus, while Republicans John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson looked to the South Carolina primary.  (The Republicans had the South Carolina primary on the same day as the Nevada caucus, January 19th.) 
+
The Democratic results were:
+
{| {| style="backround:white; color:blue" border="1" class="wikitable"
+
|+ Dem. Nevada caucus results
+
|-
+
! Candidate
+
! Percentage
+
|-
+
| Hillary Clinton
+
| 51%
+
|-
+
| Barack Obama
+
| 45%
+
|-
+
| John Edwards
+
| 4%
+
|}
+
 
+
Hillary Clinton probably won because of her strong position on the Yucca Mountain issue, which was critical to Democratic caucus goers. 
+
Romney easily won the Republican Nevada caucus, probably because it is close to Utah, a traditionally Mormon state.  Duncan Hunter had been hoping for a strong finish in Nevada and decided to leave the race, because of his poor showings. 
+
 
+
{| {| style="backround:white; color:red" border="1" class="wikitable"
+
|+ GOP SC caucus results
+
|-
+
! Candidate
+
! percentage
+
|-
+
| John McCain
+
| 33%
+
|-
+
| Mike Huckabee
+
| 30%
+
|-
+
| Fred Thompson
+
| 16%
+
|-
+
| Mitt Romney
+
| 15%
+
|-
+
| Ron Paul
+
| 4%
+
|-
+
| Rudy Giuliani
+
| 2%
+
|}
+
 
+
McCain’s victory in South Carolina propelled him as the national front-runner.  Mike Huckabee’s 2nd place defeat forced him to cut back in expenses due to lack of funds.  Fred Thompson’s defeat was irreparable and he withdrew from the race shortly afterwards
+
 
+
The Democrats prepared for the primary in South Carolina on January 26th.  Obama won the primary by a huge margin over Clinton and Edwards.  This was a severe loss for Edwards since he had been born in South Carolina and was Senator for North Carolina.  Obama probably won because of the state’s huge black population.
+
 
+
===Florida Primary: January 29, 2008===
+
Because Florida moved it's date to January 29th the Democratic party stripped Florida of it's delegates and the candidates agreed not to campaign there. 
+
The Democratic results were:
+
{| {| style="backround:white; color:blue" border="1" class="wikitable"
+
|+ Dem. Florida primary results
+
|-
+
! candidates
+
! percentage
+
|-
+
| Hillary Clinton
+
| 50%
+
|-
+
| Barack Obama
+
| 33%
+
|-
+
| John Edwards
+
| 14%
+
|-
+
| Joe Biden
+
| 1%
+
|-
+
| Bill Richardson
+
| 1%
+
|-
+
| Dennis Kucinich
+
| 1%
+
|}
+
Florida was the last early primary state and after his loss, John Edwards suspended his campaign.  (Although they had withdrawn, candidates Biden, Richardson and Kucinich still received votes.  Mike Gravel didn't receive a percentage.)
+
The Republicans concentrated on Florida more than the Democrats, because the Republican party chose to remove only half of their delegates.  Candidate [[Rudy Giuliani]] chose to ignore earlier primaries, hoping that a large win in Florida, with its strong transplanted New Yorkers contingent, would propel him to the nomination.  Unfortunately, with earlier wins, John McCain and Mitt Romney both gained momentum and began to lead Giuliani in the polls. 
+
The Republican results were:
+
{| {| style="backround:white; color:red" border="1" class="wikitable"
+
|+ GOP Florida primary results
+
|-
+
! candidates
+
! percentage
+
|-
+
| John McCain
+
| 36%
+
|-
+
| Mitt Romney
+
| 31%
+
|-
+
| Rudy Giuliani
+
| 15%
+
|-
+
| Mike Huckabee
+
| 13%
+
|-
+
| Ron Paul
+
| 3%
+
|-
+
| Fred Thompson
+
| 1%
+
|}
+
 
+
The results caused Giuliani to exit the race the next day and endorse the primary winner, John McCain.  (Although Fred Thompson had withdrawn he got some support anyway.)
+
 
+
===Super Tuesday: February 5, 2008===
+
Super Tuesday held the largest number of presidential primary's and caucuses. Twenty-four states were held for one or both parties were held on this date.
+
 
+
*The Democratic results were:
+
*Candidates
+
*Hillary Clinton, 9 states won, ([[American Samoa]], [[Arizona]], [[Arkansas]], [[California]], [[Massachusetts]], [[New Jersey]], [[New Mexico]], [[New York]], [[Oklahoma]], [[Tennessee]].) Number of delegates won, 826.
+
*Barack Obama, 13 states won, ([[Alabama]], [[Alaska]], [[Colorado]], [[Connecticut]], [[Delaware]], [[Georgia]], [[Idaho]], [[Illinois]], [[Kansas]], [[Minnesota]], [[Missouri]], [[North Dakota]], [[Utah]].) Number of delegates won, 838.
+
 
+
*GOP Super Tuesday primary results
+
*John McCain, 9 states won, (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma). Number of delegates won: 602.
+
*Mitt Romney, 7 states won, (Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Utah). Number of delegates won: 201.
+
*Mike Huckabee, 5 states won, (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, West Virginia). Number of delegates won: 152.
+
*Ron Paul, 0 states won. Number of delegates won: 10
+
 
+
===February 9th Primaries===
+
The next major primary after Super Tuesday was on February 9, 2008.  The Democrats held contests in [[Louisiana]], [[Nebraska]] & [[Washington]].  The Republicans held three other contests in [[Kansas]], [[Louisiana]] & [[Washington]].
+
Governor Huckabee won Kansas and Louisiana, but lost to McCain in Washington by a close margin.  Barrack Obama won all three Democratic contests, and also won the Maine caucus, the next day on February 10th. 
+
 
+
===Potomac Primary: February 12, 2008===
+
The next primary-date was the Potomac primary on February 12.  It is called that because the three states; [[District of Columbia]], [[Maryland]] and [[Virginia]], which all were near the Potomac River, had their primary date on the same date.  John McCain won all three Republican contests, while Barrack Obama won all of the Democratic contests. 
+
 
+
===Super Tuesday 2: March 4, 2008===
+
After Obama won his 11th consecutive victory on the February 19th primaries in [[Wisconsin]] and [[Hawaii]], Clinton was desperate to win the March 4th primaries in [[Ohio]], [[Texas]], [[Rhode Island]] & [[Vermont]].  Huckabee also needed more victories to prevent McCain from reaching the needed 1,191 delegates for the Republican nomination. 
+
 
+
Clinton won all of the states except for Vermont, which Obama won.  McCain won all of the primaries, causing Governor Huckabee to leave the race that evening. 
+
 
+
===Pennsylvania Primary===
+
After Clinton's victories on Super Tuesday 2, both Democrats looked ahead to the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd.  Obama lost some popularity after video clips were shown of his Pastor, Rev. [[Jeremiah Wright]],  saying "God damn America!" during a sermon. Obama also commented about people bitterly clinging to guns and religion because they were upset with Washington policies.  Clinton beat Obama by 9 percentage points, continuing the long drawn-out contest between the two.  John McCain was able to easily win the primary as the Republican party's presumptive nominee.
+
 
+
===Guam Caucus===
+
On May 3rd, Guam held its Democratic caucuses.  Out of more than 4,500 votes, Senator Obama won by 7 votes.  The results gave Obama 2 pledged delegates and Senator Clinton 2 pledged delegates.
+
 
+
===Indiana and North Carolina Primary===
+
Both Indiana and North Carolina held their primaries on May 6th.  Heading into the primary, registered African American voters reported receiving "robocalls" telling them they were not registered to vote.  The calls were traced back to an organization called "Women's Voices Women Vote".  The organization included members close to the Clintons.  The calls ended with an order from the state Attorney General.  Senator Obama proceeded to win the primary with 56.1%. 
+
 
+
Leading into the Indiana primary, the polls were very close, with neither candidate leading by more than the polls' margin-of-error.  Senator Clinton was looking for a large win to follow up on the Pennsylvania primary, with much the same demographic as PA and Ohio.  Senator Obama, though, surprised many in the news media and the Clinton campaign by losing by only a small margin, 50.56% - 49.44%.  With the near-split of the delegates in Indiana, combined with his win in North Carolina, the media began to declare Senator Obama as the nominee, although he had not yet reached the necessary delegate count.
+
 
+
===West Virginia Primary===
+
With a strong working-class demographic, Senator Clinton was expected to win the West Virginia primary on May 13th.  Polls leading into the primary had her up 29 points on Senator Obama.  The final vote tally exceeded the polls, with Senator Clinton winning 66.99% - 25.67%.
+
 
+
===Oregon and Kentucky Primaries===
+
The Oregon primary was a mail-only primary--the only such primary in the nation.  Democratic voters received ballots in the mail between May 2nd and May 6th, and had to be received by county election officials by May 20th.  Polling leading up to the primary showed Senator Obama with a 10-15% lead over Senator Clinton.  Obama held a rally on May 18th at the Tom McCall Waterfront Park in Portland which drew an estimated 72,000 people.  It was the largest rally Obama had held, more than doubling the 35,000 that came out to see him in Pennsylvania.  By the end of the vote tally, Obama had won the state primary 58.5% - 40.5%.
+
 
+
The Kentucky primary, held the same day, was long believed a lock for Senator Clinton.  The voter demographic mirrored the West Virginia primary, with a heavy working-class population.  Senator Clinton easily won the primary, 65.5% - 29.9%.  The large win, though, was drowned out in the media by Senator Obama's win in Oregon, and more importantly, by the endorsement of Senator Obama by former opponent and former vice presidential candidate, John Edwards. 
+
 
+
===Puerto Rico Primary===
+
With Clinton behind in both pledged and superdelegates at this point in the race, every primary and delegate became even more important to forestall Obama reaching the necessary number of delegate to clinch the nomination.  Clinton's strategy was to win out the primaries and work to convince superdelegates to support her nomination at the party convention as the best chance to beat McCain.  Thus Puerto Rico, usually an afterthought in previous elections, rated visits by both candidates before the June 1st primary.  Heading into the primary, Clinton led in two polls by 13% each time.  The results beat poll expectations, with Clinton winning the primary 67.7% - 31.27%. 
+
 
+
===Montana and South Dakota Democratic Primaries===
+
The last Democratic primaries were held on June 3rd.  Senator Obama needed to win one of the primaries, and merely come close in the other to clinch the nomination.  In Montana, Obama got the win he needed, defeating Senator Clinton 56.3%-41.25%.  In South Dakota, Senator Clinton won, but with a close enough margin to give Obama the final delegates necessary.  The result of the primary was 55.35% - 44.65%.  Senator Obama was in Saint Paul, Minnesota, the site of the Republican Nominating Convention, to accept the party's unofficial nomination. <ref>[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtL-1V3OZ0c Barack Obama Democatic Nomination Victory Speech]</ref>
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==See Also==
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[[Previous Breaking News/2008 Presidential Election|Articles about the '''2008 Presidential Election''' from previous "Breaking News"]]
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== References ==
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<small><references/></small>
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{{2008 presidential candidates}}
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[[Category: United States]]
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Revision as of 23:43, April 9, 2019

Barack Obama and John McCain
Election Results

The 2008 United States Presidential Election took place on Tuesday, November 4, 2008,[1] with Barack Obama being voted in as the next President of the United States. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, the Democratic Party nominee, with Senator Joe Biden of Delaware as his Vice Presidential running mate defeated Senator John McCain of Arizona, the Republican candidate, and his Vice Presidential nominee, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Differences between 2008 and other elections

In 2008, CNN-YouTube held the first debate in which the questions asked of the nominees in each party came primarily from YouTube viewer submitted videos. The debates received high ratings, however, CNN was criticized for not picking questions that were 'tough' or pertinent enough. One such example was during the Democratic Debate, when CNN chose to ask a question from a snow man, talking about global warming. During the Republican debate, some claimed that many of the questions were from Democratic supporters just meant to embarrass the Republican candidates. For example, a question over whether or not homosexuals should serve in the U.S. military was asked by retired general and gay activist Keith Kerr, an adviser to Hillary Clinton's campaign.

The internet has also played a major role in the election, with then-Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul and Democratic candidate Barack Obama being very active on the internet.

Young voters

In 2004, 64% of voters aged 18–29 were registered to vote. This year 75% of voters in that age group are registered. This demographic usually favors Democrats.

Fewer Uncommitted

Fewer people were undecided this election than in most previous elections. As of the beginning of October, 2008 approximately 6-8% of poll respondents were undecided, an amount that continued to decline as the election drew closer.

Election Day

The turnout was about normal, except for higher than usual rates among blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and voters under 30—all Obama groups. The turnout of evangelicals and whites was similar to 2004. There have been allegations of Democrats driving voters around to different voting stations, and as these are Obama groups, this would strengthen the voter turnout of this demographic.

Opinion polling

Polling Outfit Date Sample* Obama (D) McCain (R)
Rasmussen Tracking 11/01 - 11/03 3000 LV 52 46
Zogby Tracking 11/01 - 11/03 1200 LV 54 43
Gallup Tracking Traditional 10/31 - 11/02 2516 LV 53 42
Gallup Tracking Expanded 10/31 - 11/02 2480 LV 53 42
  • RV refers to registered voters, LV refers to likely voters.

McCain vs. Obama

McCain had the early edge, wrapping up the Republican nomination before Obama was known to be the choice of the Democrats, but this was one of the few advantages he has had. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama raised far more money than McCain, and the Democratic primary saw a surge of new voters coming out leading to a large increase in the rolls of Democrats. From the historical position of a generally equal number of Republicans and Democrats, the numbers have now tilted 41% Democrat to only 32% Republican. From the time that Obama was declared the nominee, opinion polling showed him with a modest advantage over McCain in terms of who the voters would choose to be their next President.

Obama's strategy was to tie McCain to George Bush, a very unpopular President, even though McCain was not a part of the Bush administration and often clashed with Bush during his time as senator. McCain, for his part, had to walk a fine line with accepting praise from the President to woo conservatives, while at the same time keeping enough distance so as to not alienate moderates. When possible, McCain went after Obama's lack of foreign policy experience.

The trends heavily favored the Democrats, especially after their major gains in 2006. Overall, Democrat candidates have a +10% advantage over Republicans in a 'generic' election - the current unpopular President is a Republican, and the economy is treading water. Also, based on statistical percentages of articles on each candidate, Obama was being focused on by the press far more than McCain. When McCain chastised Obama for his lack of foreign policy experience and that he hadn't been to Iraq or Afghanistan in years, Obama's campaign set up for him to take a trip to both countries. While this is expected in politics, the decision of every major network to send a team of reporters to follow him was unprecedented. Obama spoke to 200,000 people in Berlin in a highly covered speech. McCain spoke to 50,000 in Buffalo shortly thereafter and barely got a whisper. Obama's numbers started to rise, but a good deal of the populace was noticing the disparity as 48% of those polled felt the press was trying to help Obama win.

Obama seemed pleased to coast on his advantages, but McCain realized he needed to shake things up. He scored by pushing offshore drilling for oil during a time when oil prices were climbing almost daily. Obama rejected the idea, but the poll numbers started to show a greater percentage of Americans warming to the concept[2] and McCain's numbers started to improve. Obama announced he would accept some measure of offshore drilling, and McCain's momentum was halted and his gains retreated by a couple of points. McCain started an ad campaign that acknowledged Obama's celebrity status, but asking what it meant. A few days later at the start of August he called out Obama for 'playing the race card' when Obama made a reference to McCain and Bush trying to scare people because he (Obama) doesn't look like other Presidents on dollar bills. The Democrats fired back, but quickly let the issue drop when poll numbers showed that most voters did consider Obama's statement to be racist.[3] The bounce for Obama after the Berlin speech shrank back to pre-trip levels. While Obama continued to enjoy a slight lead in the polls, McCain continued to keep the race close without either candidate breaking away.

In mid-August, both candidates came together at the invitation of Pastor Rick Warren where each was asked a series of the same questions dealing both with political and personal views. While not a debate, it was the first televised forum where both candidates had a chance to express themselves and their positions. Obama hoped to appeal to Christian conservatives by expressing a religious side while McCain hoped to solidify the conservative base by sharing his own conservative and religious credentials. The difference in style between the two was evident as Obama spent more time explaining and expounding on his positions while McCain was more straightforward and received more laughs with his candid speaking style. The polling numbers continued as they had been.

There was a bounce at the start of the Democratic convention, but not what was expected as McCain suddenly drew even in the race. The friction between Hillary Clinton and Obama as well as the perceived slight of Hillary when Biden was chosen as the Vice Presidential candidate hurt Obama at a time when his approval was expected to climb. McCain then made a mistake by airing an ad of Hillary Clinton that 'supported' him. Clinton was set to speak at the convention and it was no secret that there was bad blood between her and Obama and it was widely believed that her support for Obama would be lukewarm at best. Instead, apparently galvanized by McCain's hubris before her speech, she came out strongly for Obama and rallied those who supported her. Obama's pre-convention edge returned. Obama followed it up with a very strong speech the next day in a huge stadium with fireworks and a Greek temple. Dick Morris, a former Bill Clinton political strategist who gave advice to the Republicans in 2008, felt that Obama had done such a good job reaching out to the groups that he needed that he would pull ahead by double-digits. In order to suppress the bounce from the convention, McCain announced his Vice Presidential candidate the next day, a woman, Alaskan governor Sarah Palin. The bounce for Obama was muted at first, but increased in the following days to surpass pre-convention levels, especially as Sarah Palin came under heavy attack in the media.

The edge continued as the Republican convention began. Losing a day to the hurricane, their shortened convention came out strong as well, emphasizing John McCain as a patriot and a maverick for change who is tested and will do what is right for the country regardless of political affiliation. It was notable for the secondary role that the sitting President played, talking only briefly and barely being mentioned after that. The convention tied McCain to Ronald Reagan, a popular Republican President who was able to gain the support of a good number of conservative Democrats, an ability that McCain would badly need to emulate. While the convention had very high ratings starting with Palin's well received speech, it was unclear what the impact would be in the polls. Indeed, Obama continued to lead directly afterward, but that soon changed with a turn of about 8 points and a slim lead for McCain. The Republican convention had actually more than balanced out the powerful Democratic convention.

While Obama had stated that his campaign would avoid negative advertising, as it became clear that the bounce from the convention was continuing to last and he might lose the election, his campaign turned more forcefully to negative advertising. In ads aired since the Republican convention through mid September, McCain's ads were about Obama 56% of the time, but Obama's ads were about his opponents 77% of the time.[4] Obama also received a large boost from the press which vigorously attacked McCain, but even more so Palin. Obama appeared on The O'Reilly Factor and was treated with civility and respect, even if not with agreement. McCain and his wife appeared on The View and were treated to openly antagonistic attacks. The constant negative barrage and reporting slowly moved the numbers back to even.

As the negative articles on Palin continued to intensify, some of which just quoted celebrities who had never met her calling her "whacko" or a "hater of women", her first major interview with Gibson was a turning point. Gibson asked Palin about the Bush Doctrine, but wouldn't define it for her even as she asked questions for clarifications. When she then answered with her understanding, Gibson rebuked her by implying that she misunderstood the doctrine. In truth, since the term is only a press invention, it has taken on different meanings at different times and the definition that Palin gave matched one that Gibson himself had used years earlier. Nevertheless, it was a moment and was jumped on by the press. Those who saw the interview voted heavily that they were now less likely to vote for Palin. The attack on her had muted her effectiveness, even if it was unjustified.

Stemming the tide of the McCain campaign's lead became a strong swing for Obama with a series of events that went to the Democratic nominee's favor. The polls began to tack to Obama's favor with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and a subsequent 500-point drop in the Dow Jones Index. Then, President Bush sounded a major alarm on the economy and proposed a huge 700 billion dollar rescue plan for the mortgage industry, which sent shock waves through the American populace and swept them with even more fear on the economic picture. Bush called both Presidential nominees to meet with him and Congress. It gave Obama a boost in legitimacy, his previous Achilles' heel. While he had a weak record in accomplishments and showing leadership, the chance to be propelled to a position of prominence handed it to him on a silver platter. Moreover, the plan was more problematic among Republicans than it was among Democrats, giving Obama another boost merely by supporting it while putting McCain on more shaky ground. Both candidates supported it once again blurring McCain's advantage in experience if both men were seen as interchangeable in their reaction.

McCain chose to suspend his campaign until a deal on the rescue package was reached, a mistake. The Democrats could add pork to the plan and make it even more unpalatable to the Republicans, and they did. As the first debate loomed and no deal had been reached, McCain was in a quandary. He chose to attend the debate under the view that the plan was well under way to being passed. After the debate the plan was actually defeated and wouldn't be adopted, with more changes, until the following week.

McCain's debate with Obama went well and he was viewed as having done better than expected. Unfortunately for him, Obama was also viewed as doing better than expected and was seen as looking Presidential, further cementing his standing and locking in a lead in the polls that had become rather substantial. The Vice Presidential debate was the most watched in history and Palin was given high marks for her performance, but unfortunately for the Republican ticket, Biden was also on his game that night and also came across well. There were no changes in the polling numbers and the number of undecided voters began to quickly dwindle. The second and third debates caused little change as well.

With Obama spending 110 million dollars on TV advertising in October alone, including 30 minute specials on each of the major networks, McCain was hard pressed to make up the necessary ground to win the election after being outspent by 3 to 1 for TV adds over that time period. He couldn't count on regular TV to help put in a good word for him either, as late night political jokes are running at a pace of 7 jokes against McCain/Palin for every 1 joke against Obama/Biden and a study of news stories on McCain and Obama since the end of the conventions found that 57% of news stories about McCain were negative while only 29% were for Obama.[5] A later study by the independent Pew Research Center found that the discrepancy had grown even worse. McCain had 57% of the articles about him negative while only 14% were positive, while Obama had more positive articles than negative. The only network to achieve a balance, 40% negative for both, was Fox News.[6]

General Strategy

McCain's team emphasized to convince the electorate of the long-term leadership and experience that John McCain has shown in two decades of government service while emphasizing the relative untested nature of Barack Obama.

Obama's team stressed that Obama is the candidate of fresh ideas while downplaying his relative inexperience compared to the more seasoned McCain. When possible, McCain is lumped together with George Bush, an unpopular President.

Republican Strategy

With more limited funding than his Democratic rival, McCain had favored open town hall meetings to attract the greatest number of people. He is focusing his advertising on swing states. He also asked for open debates with Obama of the Lincoln-Douglas variety where candidates can talk directly to each other, but this was not accepted by the Democratic camp which prefers the current structured format.

McCain will highlight his record of leadership, his service to his country and stress that as President he can be counted on to keep America safe from outside threats. McCain's strongest supporters are the elderly - the group that most wants stability.

McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential nominee was a departure from what was expected and helped to show that he would go down paths that the Republican party had not done in the past. McCain has touted Palin's record of standing up to the Alaska Republican party when she resigned from an Ethics Commission in protest over a lack of ethics of fellow commissioners, as well as when she ran against, and beat, then-incumbent Governor Frank Murkowski in the Republican primary in 2006. McCain will continue to tout her as a "maverick" to complement his own maverick image that he is trying to emphasize. Last, by choosing a female running mate, McCain hoped to pick up the votes of female voters disaffected with the perceived slight of Hillary Clinton by Obama. Prior to the start of the Democratic convention, 30% of Hillary's supporters had still not backed Obama and there was a good deal of bad blood between the two.

With the unfolding of the campaign season and watching the Democratic strategy and how it was playing out in the press and polls, the McCain campaign decided not to cede the moniker of change to Obama, but rather to take it upon themselves by emphasizing that McCain has a track record of change - while Obama does not. The McCain campaign feels it needs to have the voters ask who can be trusted more to get the job done, and if that occurs, then they have the advantage.

With the selection of Palin, and the energy it has brought to the conservative base, McCain has taken to larger rallies, as opposed to town hall meetings and press conferences. By mid-September, he had gone four weeks without a town hall, and three weeks without a press conference, instead sticking to larger engagements, appearing alongside his vice presidential nominee, with larger crowds than he had experienced earlier in his campaign.

Democratic Strategy

Democrats are confident that the low popularity of President Bush and particularly Operation Iraqi Freedom, which John McCain supports, puts them in a highly favorable position for 2008. They have been cautious in the Iraq arena realizing that 'The Surge' worked and they were on the wrong end of that issue. Focus is being put on a timeline for troops coming home, a position that most of the American population favors.

Democrats believe it is their race to lose, but also realize they had a good chance to win the last two Presidential elections and came up short each time. General wisdom also states that a poor economy favors Obama, so they will emphasize the dire times in this area. As in past elections, differences between those who have obtained a high income level and those who have not will be emphasized. In fact, the Democratic strategy in many ways mirrors that of their strategy in 1992 when the Democrat-controlled Congress deliberately caused economic disruption, knowing full well that the public would blame sitting president George H.W. Bush, and thereby allowing Bill Clinton to win that year's presidential race.

Favored by the young, Democrats will try hard to encourage and get out the young vote, a task that has proven more difficult than expected in the last two election cycles. To their advantage, Obama made his vice presidential pick via text message to cell phone numbers registered on the site. The announcement went to 3 million cell phones, a useful database for "Get Out The Vote" (GOTV) efforts, when voters may not be home or reachable on their landline.

As an extension of the DNC's strategy in the 2006 elections, led by Howard Dean, Barack Obama has been working towards a "50-state strategy." The campaign is working to place campaign offices throughout the country with a focus on voter registration. The increase in the rolls of Democratic voters from the primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Obama played out well for the Democrats and puts pressure on Senator McCain even in typically red states, and more specifically, "Lean Republican" states, to use the Cook Political Report's term. In addition, with a fundraising advantage, Obama is airing ads in those tight states forcing McCain to make decisions about whether to use funds to match ads and campaign efforts in those states or rely on historical results that those states will support him and focus funds in traditional toss-up states instead.

Fundraising

Barack Obama had a significant edge over Hillary Clinton in the fundraising department during their contest for the Democratic nomination, but both actually set records for raising money and both raised far more money than John McCain. McCain didn't have to spend as much since he locked up the Republican nomination much earlier than Obama locked up the Democratic. Both Obama and McCain said they would accept government funds—which would also cap how much the candidates could raise on their own—but Obama, who could presumably raise more through his own sources, changed his mind and later declined. Much of McCain's war chest will come from the Republican Party in general, which has more money to spend than their Democratic counterparts. McCain's campaign raised $47 million in August, a very sizable figure for him so far and a personal record, but not as strong as Obama's best months. In the same time period, Obama set a record with $66 million. Obama, still having an edge in fundraising that has continued throughout his run for the Presidency, saw $10 million collected the day after Sarah Palin's strongly received convention speech, a new one day record.[7] The Palin announcement has been good for John McCain's fundraising as well.

Obama set a new record of $150 million raised in September and over $600 million overall.[8] Obama's camp does not release information on who contributes to the campaign.


Conventions

Democratic National Convention

For a more detailed treatment, see 2008 Democratic National Convention.

The 2008 Democratic National Convention was held in Denver, Colorado, from August 25 to August 27 at Pepsi Center. There, Senator Obama and his running mate were selected to be the party nominee's. Barack Obama will accepted the party's nomination in front of a crowd of more than 75,000 in a free, open event held at INVESCO Field at Mile High, in a platform resemblant to a Greek temple. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is the Permanent Chair of the Convention.

The convention had a rocky start as friction between supporters of Obama and the Clintons was not resolved. Instead of Obama getting a bump in the polls, his support actually declined. The Democrats also seemed to be at odds on finding a unifying strategy for how hard to attack John McCain and how to present it. As Democratic pundit James Carville said in an interview on CNN, "If this party has a message, it's done a <heck> of a job hiding it tonight, I promise you that."[9]

A bleak convention was turned around by the Clintons. Infighting between Obama and Hillary continued through the day of her speech, but a comprise was reached, and, beyond expectations, she gave a rousing speech for Obama - possibly as an angry response to McCain's latest ad that showed her 'supporting' him. Bill Clinton the next night also praised Obama, something that he failed to effectively do in 2000 for Al Gore when he centered on his accomplishments and gave little more than lip service to Gore with statements amounting to 'and Al Gore was there too'. The convention, possibly remembering that, gave him the topic he was to speak on instead of choosing his own. Clinton was angered, but it worked. He came through. By the time Obama spoke on the last night, the theme that was missing at first was clear, and Obama mixed a message of attacking McCain with the need for change and even outlining some expensive programs that would appeal to the target populace who has been lukewarm to him. From a political point of view, the convention did what it was supposed to.


Republican National Convention

For a more detailed treatment, see 2008 Republican National Convention.

The 2008 Republican National Convention was held in Saint Paul, Minnesota from September 1 (Labor Day) until September 4. The presumptive nominee was Senator McCain. The location has political significance in that Minnesota will likely be a close state during the general election, as will its neighboring states Wisconsin and Iowa.

The convention schedule had to be altered due to the upcoming landfall of Hurricane Gustav. The first day almost entirely focused on raising money for Hurricane relief. This led to a shortened three day convention instead of four and there was some shuffling of who was speaking on which day to accommodate the suddenly shortened time span. In a surprise, George W. Bush was only delivered an eight-minute speech by satellite. In another surprise Sarah Palin's speech was watched by as many people as saw Obama give his acceptance speech on the closing night of the Democratic convention, as over 40 million people tuned in.[10] She was considered the highlight of the convention, even surpassing John McCain's speech the next day, and was noted for doing an exceptional job. Recognizing the strong asset that they have in her, the Republicans made reference to her many times on the last day of the convention. McCain, not known for being comfortable reading prepared speeches in a convention hall, delivered a solid speech. While Obama continued to enjoy a lead in the polls, it changed quickly thereafter to a slight McCain-Palin edge. The Republican convention more than canceled out a very powerful Democratic convention.

Leftist violence

Poster circulated by community organizers. Other posters depicted rock throwers with the caption, "Shut Down the RNC!," dead elephants, and derogatory and demeaning comments about gay Republicans. [2]

Progressives for Obama shares a huge membership overlap with the Movement for a Democratic Society (MDS), a group of former Students for a Democratic Society (SDS) members and sympathisers. MDS re-founded SDS in 2006 for a new generation of college students and functions as a support group for SDS's 130 college chapters. Independent researcher Trevor Louden refers to MDS as "the brains behind the SDS brawn." The reconstituted SDS was very prominent in the violence at the Republican National Convention at St Paul.[11] The founder of ACORN, Wade Rathke, denouncd[12] an FBI informer who foiled a terrorist plot to kill delegates at the Republican Convention.[13]

Vice Presidential Candidates

Democratic Vice-Presidential Candidate

On August 23, Senator Barack Obama announced, via text message to 3 million cell phone numbers of his supporters, his nomination of Joseph Biden to Vice President. Biden's selection was considered to be a prudent move by Obama, filling a hole in his own foreign policy experience that McCain could exploit. With the implosion of John Edwards, Biden was widely expected to be the choice. In order to help build up suspense, Biden said he was not chosen when he spoke to the press the day before, only to be shown as the Vice Presidential candidate the next day. A long-term senator and Washington insider with over two decades of service in the Senate, his earlier 1988 plagiarism scandal and frequent gaffes (including one in which he insulted Obama in a racist manner during the 2008 election) were deemed to be less negative than the positive that his strong experience credentials could bring to the race.

Joseph Biden




Republican Vice-Presidential Candidate

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  • Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska was announced as John McCain's choice early on Friday, August 29, the day after the Democratic convention ended. A surprise choice not even considered by the press to be on McCain's short list, her selection caught the political world off guard. It had been expected that Mitt Romney would earn the honor, but McCain had other ideas. At first denigrated by the people in the Obama campaign, Obama's own statement was one of cautious neutrality to feel out what impact her selection would have on the race.



In an interesting twist, the selection of the Vice Presidential candidates changed the dynamics of the race. By Obama picking Biden, he helped to fill the hole that McCain had been attacking dealing with a lack of foreign policy experience. McCain's strongest point, experience, would lose some of its luster. But the selection of Biden, and the passing over of Hillary Clinton, left another opening. By aligning himself with someone who has been a Democratic stalwart, Obama's claim to change became less pronounced. McCain seized upon that to select a Vice President that no one expected, and a woman, and steal some of the Democratic thunder. Her lack of foreign policy experience would cut into the experience angle that had been in play earlier, but her own maverick streak in becoming governor by ousting another Republican, combined with John McCain's maverick choice in selecting her led to a new emphasis on McCain's own maverick past. Palin arguably had more "executive" / managerial experience than either McCain, Biden or, notably, Obama. Suddenly he saw an opportunity to steal the moniker of change that Obama had been wearing, and he went for it. Such a change in position occurring from the Vice Presidential selection is rare in Presidential politics.

Debates

Presidential Debates

For a more detailed treatment, see 2008 Presidential Debates.

There have been three presidential debates for the 2008 election season. The first debate on September 26 discussed "Foreign Policy & National Security" and also dealt at length with the economic crisis. The result was a statistical draw where both candidates did better than expected in the eyes of the public. The longer term impact worked out well for Obama who already had a lead going in, and benefited from solidifying that position.

The second debate on October 7, followed a town hall-style. The questions came from audience members and the Internet, as chosen by the moderator. Again the result was a statistical draw as far as who was considered to be the winner. But with time running out for McCain, he needed something to make the people move his way, and that required a clear breakthrough that never happened

The final debate was held on October 15 concerned "Domestic and Economic Policy." Both candidates were again viewed as having done well, which was a tactical defeat for McCain as the poll numbers showed only small changes.

Vice Presidential Debate

There was one vice presidential debate held on October 2. Palin did much better than expected, but Biden was also in top form. No clear winner emerged and the poll numbers remained largely unchanged, a strategic win for the Democratic ticket that only had to maintain their lead to win the election. The number of people who watched the debate was an alltime record for a Vice Presidential debate, and was viewed by more people than any of the three Presidential debates.

Third parties and Independents

As usual there were a number of third party candidates, but none made much of an impact. Briefly the Libertarian Bob Barr had enough strength to become a spoiler for McCain. He faded quickly. See United States Presidential Election, 2008 -- Third Party Candidates.

Primaries

For expanded primary information, see United States Presidential Election, 2008 - Primaries

The primary season for both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party officially began on January 3, 2008 with the Iowa Caucuses and ended on June 3, 2008.[14] The 2008 election cycle saw a major shift in the primary election calendar, frontloading many primaries into early February.[15]

John McCain had to get his footing at first, but was pretty much assured the Republican nomination after Super Tuesday. Barack Obama had a much tougher road, but rode out a string of victories in February to eventually outlast Clinton and take the nomination. During that time he had raised more money than any other candidate in history giving him a huge boost, a trend that would continue into the general election.

See also

Further reading

  • Abramowitz, Allen I. and Larry J. Sabato. The 2008 Elections (2008), state by state statistical analysis
  • Balz, Dan, and Haynes Johnson. The Battle for America 2008: The Story of an Extraordinary Election (2009), by leading reporters with inside information
  • Nelson, Michael. The Elections of 2008 (2009), factual summary except and text search
  • Todd, Chuck, and Sheldon Gawiser. How Barack Obama Won: A State-by-State Guide to the Historic 2008 Presidential Election (2009) analysis of exit polls for each state excerpt and text search

References