Difference between revisions of "United States Presidential Election, 2008"
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State, margin of victory (party that won in 2004) | State, margin of victory (party that won in 2004) | ||
| − | + | #Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem) | |
| − | + | #Iowa, 0.67% (Repub) | |
| − | + | #New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub) | |
| − | + | #New Hampshire, 1.37% (Dem) | |
| − | + | #Ohio, 2.11% (Repub) | |
| − | + | #Pennsylvania, 2.50% (Dem) | |
| − | + | #Nevada, 2.59% (Repub) | |
| − | + | #Michigan, 3.42% (Dem) | |
| − | + | #Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem) | |
The 2006 election landslide losses for Republicans in the northeast and northeastern Midwest, including Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, indicate that the outcome in the northeastern states and the northeast Midwestern states is no longer contestable. So New Hampshire, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania can be removed from the list. That leaves only five states in play in 2008: | The 2006 election landslide losses for Republicans in the northeast and northeastern Midwest, including Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, indicate that the outcome in the northeastern states and the northeast Midwestern states is no longer contestable. So New Hampshire, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania can be removed from the list. That leaves only five states in play in 2008: | ||
| − | + | #Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem) (10 electoral votes) | |
| − | + | #Iowa, 0.67% (Repub) (7 electoral votes) | |
| − | + | #New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub) (5 electoral votes) | |
| − | + | #Nevada, 2.59% (Repub) (5 electoral votes) | |
| − | + | #Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem) (10 electoral votes) | |
If the same party wins these states as in 2004, then the Democrats would win the electoral college by 272-266. | If the same party wins these states as in 2004, then the Democrats would win the electoral college by 272-266. | ||
Revision as of 04:18, March 30, 2007
The 2008 United States Presidential Election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2008.[1] The primary season for both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party officialy begins on January 14, 2008 with the Iowa Caucuses and (as of March 16, 2007) ends on March 4, 2008.[2] The 2008 election cycle has seen a major shift to the primary election calendar, frontloading many primaries into early February.[3]
Contents
Battleground States
The United States has become so regionally polarized that even though the 2004 presidential election was close nationwide, only nine states had outcomes having less than 4% margin between the candidates:
State, margin of victory (party that won in 2004)
- Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem)
- Iowa, 0.67% (Repub)
- New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub)
- New Hampshire, 1.37% (Dem)
- Ohio, 2.11% (Repub)
- Pennsylvania, 2.50% (Dem)
- Nevada, 2.59% (Repub)
- Michigan, 3.42% (Dem)
- Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem)
The 2006 election landslide losses for Republicans in the northeast and northeastern Midwest, including Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, indicate that the outcome in the northeastern states and the northeast Midwestern states is no longer contestable. So New Hampshire, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania can be removed from the list. That leaves only five states in play in 2008:
- Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem) (10 electoral votes)
- Iowa, 0.67% (Repub) (7 electoral votes)
- New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub) (5 electoral votes)
- Nevada, 2.59% (Repub) (5 electoral votes)
- Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem) (10 electoral votes)
If the same party wins these states as in 2004, then the Democrats would win the electoral college by 272-266.
Republican Strategy
The Republican presidential nominee must win Wisconsin or Minnesota, and hold Iowa. The outcome in New Mexico, which has only 5 electoral votes, is irrelevant. Minnesota's margin of victory for the Democrats in 2004 probably places it out of reach for Republicans in 2008.
The inescapable conclusion is that the Republican nominee must win Wisconsin and hold Iowa in order to win the general election.
Declared Republican Party Candidates
Senator Sam Brownback, Kansas
Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, New York City
Representative Duncan Hunter, California 52nd
Senator John McCain, Arizona
Representative Ron Paul, Texas 14th
Former Governor Mitt Romney, Massachusetts
Republican Party Members with Presidential Exploratory Committees
Former Governor Jim Gilmore, Virginia
Former Governor Mike Huckabee, Arkansas
Representative Tom Tancredo, Colorado 6th
Former Governor and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson, Wisconsin
Democratic Strategy
Declared Democratic Party Candidates
Senator Hillary Clinton, New York
Senator Chris Dodd, Connecticut
Former Senator John Edwards, North Carolina
Former Senator Mike Gravel, Alaska
Representative Dennis Kucinich, Ohio 10th
Senator Barack Obama, Illinois
