United States Presidential Election, 2008

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Battleground states
The 2008 United States Presidential Election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2008.[1] The primary season for both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party officially began on January 3, 2008 with the Iowa Caucuses and ended on June 3, 2008.[2] The 2008 election cycle has seen a major shift to the primary election calendar, frontloading many primaries into early February.[3] Senator Barack Obama of Illinois is the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party, with Senator Joe Biden of Delaware being his Vice Presidential running mate. They are the first Democratic Presidential ticket in a 100 years with no executive experience or military experience. Senator John McCain of Arizona is expected to win the Republican nomination. His Vice Presidential nominee is yet to be determined.

Contents

First election without incumbents since 1928

If eligible to do so, the President of the United States often runs for reelection. If the President does not run, the Vice President of the United States will often run to replace the President after he leaves office. 2008 may mark the first time since the 1928 election in which there is neither an incumbent President nor an incumbent Vice President running for his party's presidential nomination and thus not running in the Presidential election. In the United States presidential election of 1952, the race was between Republican candidate Dwight D. Eisenhower and Democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson. Vice President Alben Barkley sought but failed to win the Democratic nomination. Current Vice President Dick Cheney has repeatedly stated he will not run for President. "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve," Cheney said on Fox News Sunday.

Differences between 2008 and other elections

In 2008, CNN-YouTube held the first debate in which the questions asked of the nominees in each party came primarily from YouTube viewer submitted videos. The debates received high ratings, however, CNN was criticized for not picking questions that were 'tough' or pertinent enough. One such example was during the Democratic Debate, when CNN chose to ask a question from a snow man, talking about global warming. During the Republican debate, some claimed that many of the questions were from Democratic supporters just meant to embarrass the Republican candidates. For example, a question over whether or not homosexuals should serve in the U.S. military was asked by retired general and gay activist Keith Kerr, an adviser to Hillary Clinton's campaign.

The internet has also played a major role in the election, with then-Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul and Democratic candidate Barack Obama being very active on the internet.


Uncommitted Electorate

As of July 30th, 2008 14% of respondents are undecided, almost twice as high as the 8% at a similar time period in 2004.[4]


Opinion polling

Polling Outfit Date Sample* Obama (D) McCain (R)
Gallup Tracking 08/22 - 08/24 2644 45 45
CNN/Opinion Research 08/23 - 08/24 1023 47 47
Rasmussen Tracking 08/22 - 08/24 3000 LV 46 42
Gallup Tracking 08/21 - 08/23 2625 RV 45 45
ABC News/Washington Post 08/19 - 08/22 916 RV 49 43
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics 08/19 - 08/20 900 RV 42 39
Battleground National 08/15 - 08/18 1000 LV 46 47
  • RV refers to registered voters, LV refers to likely voters.

Most polling that has been done fails to include all the candidates who will actually be on the ballot in November. A Rasmussen poll on May 18, reported on a four-way race between Barack Obama, John McCain, Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. The poll, which was conducted before Barr became the Libertarian nominee and made a number of high-profile talk show appearances, found that Barr would finish in third place with 6% of the vote, and Nader with 4%.[5] Another poll conducted around that time showed Barr picking up 8% of the vote in Georgia, seriously hurting McCain's chances of winning that state.[6] It should be noted that in the actual elections, third party candidates such as Barr and Nader generally have much lower percentage of votes cast for them than they poll beforehand. Also, when possible, polling is reported without counting 'leaners'. Leaners so far have been favoring McCain.

Due to the nature of the presidential election, relying on state-by-state electoral votes as opposed to the nationwide popular vote, nationwide polls may be less predictive of the election results. An alternative approach is to take aggregate results of state-by-state polling in order to create an electoral map. So far most polling sites doing this have found the election favoring Obama, much as the general polling has shown, although generally dependent on how leaning states vote come election day.[7][8]

McCain vs. Obama

John McCain (R)
Barack Obama (D)

McCain had the early edge, wrapping up the Republican nomination before Obama was known to be the choice of the Democrats, but this was one of the few advantages he has had. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama raised far more money than McCain and the Democratic primary saw a surge of new voters coming out leading to a large increase in the rolls of Democrats. From the historical position of a generally equal number of Republicans and Democrats, the numbers have now tilted 41% Democrat to only 32% Republican. From the time that Obama was declared the nominee, opinion polling showed him with a modest advantage over McCain in terms of who the voters would choose to be their next President.

Obama's strategy was to tie McCain to George Bush, a very unpopular President, even though McCain was not a part of the Bush administration and often clashed with Bush during his time as senator. McCain, for his part, had to walk a fine line with accepting praise from the President to woo conservatives, while at the same time keeping enough distance so as to not alienate moderates. When possible, McCain went after Obama's lack of foreign policy experience.

On paper, the nomination would seem to heavily favor the Democrats. Overall, Democrat candidates have a +10% advantage over Republicans in a 'generic' election. The current unpopular President is a Republican, and the economy is treading water. Also, based on statistical percentages of articles on each candidate, Obama was being focused on with press coverage far more than McCain. When McCain chastised Obama for his lack of foreign policy experience and that he hadn't been to Iraq or Afghanistan in years, Obama's campaign set up for him to take a trip to both countries. While this is expected in politics, the decision of every major network to send a team of reporters to follow him was unprecedented. Obama spoke to 200,000 people in Berlin in a highly covered speech. McCain spoke to 50,000 in Buffalo shortly thereafter and barely got a whisper. Obama's numbers started to rise, but a good deal of the populace was noticing the disparity as 48% of those polled felt the press was trying to help Obama win.

Obama seemed pleased to coast on his advantages, but McCain realized he needed to shake things up. He scored by pushing offshore drilling for oil during a time when oil prices were climbing almost daily. Obama rejected the idea, but the poll numbers started to show a greater percentage of Americans warming to the concept[9] and McCain's numbers started to improve. Obama announced he would accept some measure of offshore drilling, and McCain's momentum was haltered and his gains retreated by a couple of points. McCain started an ad campaign that acknowledged Obama's celebrity status, but asking what it meant. The bounce for Obama after the Berlin speech shrank again. While Obama continues to enjoy a slight lead, McCain has continued to keep the race close without either candidate breaking away.

State by State Breakdown

The United States had become so regionally polarized that even though the 2004 presidential election was close nationwide, only nine states had outcomes having less than 4% margin between the candidates:

State, margin of victory, party that won the state in 2004

  1. Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem)
  2. Iowa, 0.67% (Repub)
  3. New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub)
  4. New Hampshire, 1.37% (Dem)
  5. Ohio, 2.11% (Repub)
  6. Pennsylvania, 2.50% (Dem)
  7. Nevada, 2.59% (Repub)
  8. Michigan, 3.42% (Dem)
  9. Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem)

It is assumed that the 2008 election will be similar where close battles in a few states could determine the outcome. Individual state polling numbers for the 2008 election so far:

  • Red = McCain leading
  • Blue = Obama leading
State Obama (D) McCain (R) Source Updated
Alabama 37% 55% Rasmussen 7/31/08
Alaska 40% 44% Rasmussen 7/31/08
Arkansas 37% 47% Rasmussen 7/17/08
Arizona 40% 52% PPP 7/31/08
California 51% 37% Rasmussen 8/20/08
Colorado 46% 47% Quinnipiac 8/21/08
Connecticut 52% 35% Rasmussen 6/30/08
Delware 50% 41% SurveyUSA 3/06/08
Florida 44% 47% PPP 8/02/08
Georgia 43% 50% Rasmussen 8/14/08
Hawaii 61% 31% SurveyUSA 3/06/08
Idaho 37% 53% DailyKos.com 7/30/08
Illinois 53% 38% Rasmussen 8/14/08
Indiana 42% 46% Rasmussen 8/19/08
Iowa 46% 41% Rasmussen 8/07/08
Kansas 37% 52% Rasmuseen 8/11/08
Kentucky 39% 49% Rasmussen 7/29/08
Louisiana 34% 54% Rasmussen 8/12/08
Maine 49% 36% Rasmussen 8/12/08
Maryland 53% 40% SurveyUSA 3/06/08
Massachusetts 51% 36% Rasmussen 8/5/08
Michigan 46% 39% Detroit Free Press 8/21/08
Minnesota 48% 38% MPR/Humphrey Institute 8/17/08
Mississippi 41% 52% Rasmussen 7/28/08
Missouri 41% 48% Rasmussen 8/7/08
Montana 44% 45% Rasmussen 7/29/08
Nebraska 32% 50% Rasmussen 8/11/08
Nevada 44% 43% Reno Gazette Journal 8/20/08
New Hampshire 43% 42% Rasmussen 8/19/08
New Jersey 48% 40% Rasmussen 8/04/08
New Mexico 46% 41% Rasmussen 7/24/08
New York 52% 32% Rasmussen 8/13/08
North Carolina 42% 46% Rasmussen 7/15/08
North Dakota 43% 43% Rasmussen 8/18/08
Ohio 41% 45% Rasmussen 8/18/08
Oklahoma 38% 52% SurveyUSA 6/13/08
Oregon 46% 37% Rasmussen 7/15/08
Pennsylvania 45% 40% Quinnipiac 8/19/08
Rhode Island 55% 31% Rasmussen 7/04/08
South Carolina 39% 48% Rasmussen 6/07/08
South Dakota 40% 44% Rasmussen 7/09/08
Tennessee 36% 51% Rasmussen 6/24/08
Texas 41% 50% Rasmussen 7/30/08
Utah 33% 52% Rasmussen 6/22/08
Vermont 63% 29% SurveyUSA 3/06/08
Virginia 46% 44% PPP 7/20/08
Washington 48% 37% Strategic Vision 7/27/08
West Virginia 38% 45% Rasmussen 6/05/08
Wisconsin 47% 42% Strategic Vision 8/10/08
Wyoming 40% 53% Research2000 5/29/08

Analysis of States by Region

Because of the electoral college system in the United States, it is important to analyze the presidential election by each state. These states are grouped into regions.

New England

Barack Obama is almost certain to win almost every state in this region, which tend to be very liberal. The only exception is in New Hampshire, where John McCain is well liked and George Bush won in 2000. This state is expected to be competitive. On the other hand, with only four electoral votes, the impact on the election will not be as great as some other battleground states.

Mid-Atlantic

New York, Delaware, and Maryland are solidly Democrat and will vote for Obama this election. New Jersey is less so, but still has Democratic leanings, and will probably go for Obama. Pennsylvania is a very important swing state for both candidates, as it has 21 electoral votes, fifth most in the nation, and has both liberal and conservative elements. In recent years, the state has moved toward becoming Democrat. However, it is not yet at the point that is safely in the Democratic camp, and will still be focused on heavily by both candidates during this election cycle. McCain still has a very good chance because Obama was unable to connect with the working-class citizens of Pennsylvania during the Democratic primary.

South-Atlantic

Washington, D.C. is overwhelmingly liberal and will vote for Obama; however, with three electoral votes its significance is limited. Although Virginia has usually been Republican territory in Presidential elections, this year it has become a competitive state. Democrats will work on increasing the voter turnout in the northern part of the state, with a high population of D.C. transplants. McCain's strength is in the southern regions and among the military. In the Carolinas, which usually votes Republican, McCain is seen as having the edge, but Obama may be competitive in these states if he mobilizes the African-American population. Georgia is a state where a third-party candidate Bob Barr could make a difference. While most voters favor McCain, he could lose enough votes to Barr to lose the state, especially if there is a large black turnout. Florida is a very close swing state, most famously known for its role in Election 2000. An important constituency in this state is the Jewish population, who are continuing to support Obama over McCain. Cuban-Americans, who are most upset with Obama's statements that he would meet with Fidel Castro, back McCain.

Deep South

John McCain will do well in the deep south. This includes the states of Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia. This area is generally conservative, and consistently vote Republican in Presidential elections. Although Obama believes in a fifty-state strategy, it is unlikely that such a strategy will be helpful in getting out the vote in these states apart from the black population.

Swing States (Great Lakes Region)

Strategists believe that the Republican presidential nominee must win Wisconsin or Minnesota, and hold Iowa but that the outcome in New Mexico, which has only 5 electoral votes, is irrelevant. Minnesota's margin of victory for the Democrats in 2004 probably places it out of reach for Republicans in 2008. This is confirmed by recent polling. However, due to the location of the Republican Convention in Minnesota, and if Governor Pawlenty is chosen as McCain's vice presidential pick, the state, with ten electoral votes, can come back into play.

Other Important Swing States

Moreover, it is very important for republicans to hold Ohio and Florida. Fortunately, both states have tended to lean republican in the last two presidential elections. Although Florida was disputed in election 2000, it went to Bush undeniably in 2004. Virginia will also be heavily contested this year.


General Strategy

McCain's team wants to convince the electorate of the long-term leadership and experience that John McCain has shown in two decades of government service while emphasizing the relative untested nature of Barak Obama.

Obama's team wants to convince the electorate that Obama is the candidate of fresh ideas while downplaying his relative inexperience compared to the more seasoned McCain. When possible, McCain is lumped together with George Bush, an unpopular President.

Republican Strategy

With more limited funding than his Democratic rival, McCain favors open town hall meetings to attract the greatest number of people. He is focusing his advertising on swing states. He has asked for open debates with Obama of the Lincoln-Douglas variety where candidates can talk directly to each other, but this was not accepted by the Democratic camp which prefers the current structured format.

McCain is pushing the idea that he is a proven leader who served his country and as President can be counted on to keep America safe from outside threats. His strongest supporters are the elderly - the group that most wants stability.

Democratic Strategy

Democrats are confident that the low popularity of President George W. Bush and particularly Operation Iraqi Freedom, which John McCain supports, puts them in a highly favorable position for 2008. They have been cautious in the Iraq arena realizing that 'The Surge' worked and they were on the wrong end of that issue. Focus is being put on a timeline for troops coming home, a position that most of the American population favors.

Democats believe it is their race to lose, but also realize they had a good chance to win the last two Presidential elections and came up short each time. General wisdom also states that a poor economy favors Obama, so they will try to point a dire picture in this area. As in past elections, differences between those who have obtained a high income level and those who have not will be emphasized.

Favored by the young, Democrats will try hard to encourage and get out the young vote, a task that has proven more difficult than expected in the last two election cycles.

As an extension of the DNC's strategy in the 2006 elections, led by Howard Dean, Barack Obama has been working towards a "50-state strategy." The campaign is working to place campaign offices throughout the country with a focus on voter registration. The increase in the rolls of Democratic voters from the primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Obama played out well for the Democrats and puts pressure on Senator McCain even in typically red states, and more specifically, "Lean Republican" states, to use the Cook Political Report's term. In addition, with a fundraising advantage, Obama is airing ads in those tight states forcing McCain to make decisions about whether to use funds to match ads and campaign efforts in those states or rely on historical results that those states will support him and focus funds in traditional toss-up states instead.


Conventions

Democratic National Convention

The 2008 Democratic National Convention will be held in Denver, Colorado, August 25 to August 27 at Pepsi Center. There they will select Senator Obama and his running mate to be the party nominee's. Barack Obama will accept the party's nomination in front of a crowd of more than 75,000 in a free, open event to be held at INVESCO Field at Mile High. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is the Permanent Chair of the Convention.

Convention Schedule

Monday 8/25 (Theme: One Nation):


Tuesday 8/26 (Theme: Renewing America's Promise):


Wednesday 8/27 (Theme: Securing America's Future):


Thursday 8/28 (Theme: Change You Can Believe In):

Republican National Convention

The 2008 Republican National Convention will be held in Saint Paul, Minnesota from September 1 (Labor Day) until September 4. The presumptive nominee will be Senator McCain. The location has political significance in that Minnesota will likely be a close state during the general election, as will it's neighboring states Wisconsin and Iowa.


Convention Schedule

Monday 9/1 (Theme: Service):

Monday primetime (10-11pm Eastern Time)


Tuesday 9/2 (Theme: Reform):

Tuesday primetime (10-11pm Eastern Time)


Wednesday 9/3 (Theme: Prosperity):

Wednesday primetime (10-11pm Eastern Time)


Thursday 9/4 (Theme: Peace):

Thursday primetime

(10-11pm Eastern Time)

  • Presidential Nominee John McCain (video before his speech)

Debates

Presidential Debates

There will be three presidential debates for the 2008 election season. The first debate will be held on September 26th, at the University of Mississippi. The topic for the debate is "Foreign Policy & National Security" and will be moderated by Jim Lehrer. The debate will be a podium debate, broken into 9 nine-minute segments. The moderator will introduce a topic, and then each candidate will have 2 minutes to comment. Following their answers, there will be 5 minutes of open discussion on the topic, facilitated by the moderator.

The second debate will be held on October 7th, at Belmont University in Nashville, TN. The moderator will be Tom Brokaw, and the debate will be in a town hall-style. The questions will come from audience members and the Internet, as chosen by the moderator. After each question, the candidates will have two minutes each to respond, as well as a one-minute followup to the opposing candidate's response.

The final debate will be held on October 15th, at Hofstra University in Hempstead, NY. The topic for the debate is "Domestic and Economic Policy" and will be moderated by Bob Schieffer. The candidates will be seated at a table, as opposed to behind a podium, and the format will follow that of the first debate. In addition, though, the candidates will be given an opportunity to present a 90-second closing argument.

Vice Presidential Debate

There will be one vice presidential debate held on October 2nd, at Washington University in Saint Louis, MO. The debate will be moderated by Gwen Ifill, with a format to be determined after the vice presidential nominees have been selected.

Third parties and Independents

Libertarian party

The Libertarian Party selected former Representative Bob Barr of Georgia as its 2008 presidential candidate on May 25, 2008.[10] Former Democratic candididate Mike Gravel sought the Libertarian nomination but lost to Barr.[11]

Barr has, on his campaign website, linked to a proposed Libertarian strategy laid out by a member of his campaign staff. Although Barr has not officially claimed this as his strategy, the link appears to be a tacit endorsement. The strategy is called the "gold states" strategy. Instead of waging a 50-state campaign with the aim of securing 270 electoral votes and an outright electoral college win, Barr would focus on about 18-20 states where neither Obama or McCain has strong support. Winning that number of states could net Barr from 180-200 electoral votes, and would exceed either Obama or McCain's number and prevent either of them from reaching 270. Under US Constitution Amendment 12, with no candidate having an electoral vote majority, the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives, which would have to choose the president from the top three electoral vote getters. At this stage, Barr could argue that as the top electoral vote recipient, he should become the President, and might draw support from conservative Democrats displeased with Obama's positions, and from Republicans who dislike McCain.

Although winning the largest number of electoral votes would assist Barr in making such an argument, it is not absolutely necessary. Given the close divide in the electoral vote in the 2000 and 2004 elections, Barr could throw the vote into the House by winning a handful of states to garner perhaps 15-20 electoral votes.

The House of Representatives currently has a Democratic majority, but it is important to note that under the US Constitution Amendment 12, the vote is not a straight vote of the members of the House. Instead, each State gets one single vote, and that vote is determined by the members from that State. Although many large states like California and New York have large Democratic majorities, these will be balanced by the many smaller Southern and Midwestern states with Republican majorities. A handful of states have an even number of House members, and are split down the middle for control.

Constitution Party

The Constitution Party held its convention in Kansas City, Kansas, on April 24 through April 27. The party nominated Pastor Chuck Baldwin over former U.N. Ambassador and Republican presidential candidate Alan Keyes.[12]

Green Party

Cynthia McKinney, who was defeated in her bid for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives after voting against the Iraq War and being arrested on battery charges after striking a Capitol Hill police officer, won the environmentalist Green Party's nomination for president at the party convention July 12, 2008. Running for Vice President on the Green ticket is "Hip-Hop activist and journalist" Rosa Clemente.[13]

Independents

Ralph Nader announced his independent candidacy for president on February 24, 2008, to focus on "stem[ming] corporate crime and Pentagon waste and promot[ing] labor rights", issues he feels are ignored by the main parties.[14] His running mate is former President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors Matt Gonzalez.[15]

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been frequently mentioned as a possible independent candidate for the 2008 presidential election and fueled that speculation when he left the Republican Party in June 2007. However, he declared in a February 28, 2008, op-ed article in The New York Times, "I am not—and will not be—a candidate for president," but added that "[i]f a candidate takes an independent, nonpartisan approach—and embraces practical solutions that challenge party orthodoxy—I’ll join others in helping that candidate win the White House."[16]


Historical Information

Withdrawn Republican Party Candidates

Senator Sam Brownback, Kansas, withdrew October 19, 2007, citing a lack of funding.[17] Brownback also had done poorly at key conservative milestones, such as the Value Voters Debate.[18] He endorsed Senator John McCain of Arizona.

Former Governor Jim Gilmore, Virginia, withdrew July 14, 2007

Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, New York City He withdrew after a defeat in Florida, on which he had depended on heavily. He endorsed John McCain afterwards.

Former Governor Mike Huckabee, Arkansas. He withdrew from the race once McCain received the 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination. He also promised to support McCain as the nominee, thus giving his endorsement to him.

Representative Duncan Hunter, California 52nd, withdrew January 19, 2008 and endorsed Governor Mike Huckabee.

Representative Ron Paul, Texas 14th, withdrew June 12, 2008.

Former Governor Mitt Romney, Massachusetts, suspended his campaign after poor showings on Super Tuesday and later endorsed John McCain.

Representative Tom Tancredo, Colorado 6th, withdrew December 20, 2007. He endorsed fmr. Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts.

Former Senator Fred Thompson, Tennessee. He endorsed John McCain of Arizona.

Former Governor and HS Secretary Tommy Thompson, withdrew August 12, 2007. He endorsed fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York.

Potential Republican Candidates Who Declined to Run

Potential Republican Vice-Presidential Candidates

Withdrawn Democratic Party candidates

Senator Joseph Biden, Delaware[19] He withdrew after a disappointing finish in the Iowa Caucus.

Senator Hillary Clinton, New York Suspended her campaign after Obama reached the number of needed delegates. She endorsed him shortly afterwards.

Senator Chris Dodd, Connecticut[20] He withdrew after a disappointing finish in the Iowa Caucus and later endorsed Senator Barack Obama.

Former Senator John Edwards, North Carolina. He withdrew after losing in all of the early primary states. He later endorsed Senator Obama after Obama won the North Carolina primary.

Former Senator Mike Gravel, Alaska. He withdrew to seek the Libertarian party nomination (which he lost to Bob Barr.) He also endorsed Green Party Candidate, Jesse Johnson. [21]

Representative Dennis Kucinich, Ohio 10th[22] He withdrew to keep his seat in the House of Representatives.

Governor Bill Richardson, New Mexico[23] He withdrew after twin fourth-place finishes (in Iowa and New Hampshire) that showed his credentials could not compete with his rivals’ star power. He later endorsed Senator Obama.

Former Governor Tom Vilsack, Iowa. He endorsed Hillary Clinton of New York

Potential Democratic Candidates Who Declined to Run

Democratic Vice-Presidential Candidate

On August 23rd, Senator Barack Obama announced, via text message to 3 million cell phone numbers of his supporters, his nomination of Joseph Biden to Vice President.

Joseph Biden










Primaries and Caucuses

Iowa Caucus: January 3, 2008

The first caucus in the 2008 presidential election cycle was the Iowa Caucus. The Democratic winner of the Iowa caucus was Barack Obama, who managed to beat national frontrunner Hillary Clinton and former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards. The official results were:

Dem. Iowa caucus results
candidates percentage
Barack Obama 38%
John Edwards 30%
Hillary Clinton 29%
Bill Richardson 2%
Joseph Biden 1%

Other candidates such as, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel did not gain a significant percentage. Because of the Iowa results, Barack Obama was expected now to beat Hillary Clinton in the upcoming New Hampshire primary. Also, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd both withdrew from the race because of their low showings in the Iowa caucus.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee defeated Mitt Romney by an even closer margin. The results were:

GOP Iowa caucus results
Candidate percentage
Mike Huckabee 34%
Mitt Romney 25%
Fred Thompson 13%
John McCain 13%
Ron Paul 10%
Rudy Giuliani 3%

Candidates such as Duncan Hunter, Alan Keyes and John H. Cox didn't come out with a significant percentage. Romney's loss in Iowa set him back in the upcoming primary in New Hampshire. Huckabee's win however gave him surge in New Hampshire where he had before been very low in the polls. McCain's unexpected high showing in Iowa also gave him a little boost in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire Primary: January 8, 2008

The next milestone after the Iowa caucus was the New Hampshire primary. (Only the Republican Wyoming primary occurred on January 5, which was won by Romney.) On the Republican side, Mitt Romney's defeat in Iowa helped his most significant opponent, John McCain. Huckabee's victory in Iowa helped boost his campaign and gave him a higher showing than even he had expected. On the Democratic side, Obama's defeat of Clinton and Edwards led to the polls usually predicting a Obama victory in New Hampshire. The winner for the Republicans was John McCain and for the Democrats Hillary Clinton. The Democratic results were:

Dem. NH primary results
Candidate percentage
Hillary Clinton 39%
Barack Obama 36%
John Edwards 17%
Bill Richardson 5%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

Hillary Clinton's win was a setback for Obama and much-needed victory for Clinton. The polls reliability was most hurt with these results. (Mike Gravel didn't reach a significant percentage.) The Republican results were:

GOP NH primary results
Candidate percentage
John McCain 37%
Mitt Romney 31%
Mike Huckabee 11%
Rudy Giuliani 9%
Ron Paul 8%
Fred Thompson 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%

These results put the very survival of Mitt Romney on the line and intensified the upcoming Michigan primary. John McCain's victory helped boost his campaign and he predicted to go on to victory in Michigan and South Carolina. Huckabee also did well and placed an unusual third place.

Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina

Romney's second-place defeat in Iowa and New Hampshire, caused his campaign to focus all its attention on the Michigan Primary on January 15th. He managed to defeat his rivals, John McCain and Mike Huckabee. Since the Democrats had taken Michigan's delegates away, most of the candidates didn't even bother to get on the ballot. Clinton won easily, because she was one of the only major candidates to be even on the ballot. Romney and the Democrats turned their attention to the Nevada caucus, while Republicans John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson looked to the South Carolina primary. (The Republicans had the South Carolina primary on the same day as the Nevada caucus, January 19th.) The Democratic results were:

Dem. Nevada caucus results
Candidate Percentage
Hillary Clinton 51%
Barack Obama 45%
John Edwards 4%

Hillary Clinton probably won because of her strong position on the Yucca Mountain issue, which was critical to Democratic caucus goers. Romney easily won the Republican Nevada caucus, probably because it is close to Utah, a traditionally Mormon state. Duncan Hunter had been hoping for a strong finish in Nevada and decided to leave the race, because of his poor showings.

GOP SC caucus results
Candidate percentage
John McCain 33%
Mike Huckabee 30%
Fred Thompson 16%
Mitt Romney 15%
Ron Paul 4%
Rudy Giuliani 2%

McCain’s victory in South Carolina propelled him as the national front-runner. Mike Huckabee’s 2nd place defeat forced him to cut back in expenses due to lack of funds. Fred Thompson’s defeat was irreparable and he withdrew from the race shortly afterwards

The Democrats prepared for the primary in South Carolina on January 26th. Obama won the primary by a huge margin over Clinton and Edwards. This was a severe loss for Edwards since he had been born in South Carolina and was Senator for North Carolina. Obama probably won because of the state’s huge black population.

Florida Primary: January 29, 2008

Because Florida moved its date to January 29th the Democratic party stripped Florida of its delegates and the candidates agreed not to campaign there. The Democratic results were:

Dem. Florida primary results
candidates percentage
Hillary Clinton 50%
Barack Obama 33%
John Edwards 14%
Joe Biden 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

Florida was the last early primary state and after his loss, John Edwards suspended his campaign. (Although they had withdrawn, candidates Biden, Richardson and Kucinich still received votes. Mike Gravel didn't receive a percentage.) The Republicans concentrated on Florida more than the Democrats, because the Republican party chose to remove only half of their delegates. Candidate Rudy Giuliani chose to ignore earlier primaries, hoping that a large win in Florida, with its strong transplanted New Yorkers contingent, would propel him to the nomination. Unfortunately, with earlier wins, John McCain and Mitt Romney both gained momentum and began to lead Giuliani in the polls. The Republican results were:

GOP Florida primary results
candidates percentage
John McCain 36%
Mitt Romney 31%
Rudy Giuliani 15%
Mike Huckabee 13%
Ron Paul 3%
Fred Thompson 1%

The results caused Giuliani to exit the race the next day and endorse the primary winner, John McCain. (Although Fred Thompson had withdrawn he got some support anyway.)

Super Tuesday: February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday held the largest number of presidential primary's and caucuses. Twenty-four states were held for one or both parties were held on this date.

  • GOP Super Tuesday primary results
  • John McCain, 9 states won, (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma). Number of delegates won: 602.
  • Mitt Romney, 7 states won, (Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Utah). Number of delegates won: 201.
  • Mike Huckabee, 5 states won, (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, West Virginia). Number of delegates won: 152.
  • Ron Paul, 0 states won. Number of delegates won: 10

February 9th Primaries

The next major primary after Super Tuesday was on February 9, 2008. The Democrats held contests in Louisiana, Nebraska & Washington. The Republicans held three other contests in Kansas, Louisiana & Washington. Governor Huckabee won Kansas and Louisiana, but lost to McCain in Washington by a close margin. Barrack Obama won all three Democratic contests, and also won the Maine caucus, the next day on February 10th.

Potomac Primary: February 12, 2008

The next primary-date was the Potomac primary on February 12. It is called that because the three states; District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia, which all were near the Potomac River, had their primary date on the same date. John McCain won all three Republican contests, while Barrack Obama won all of the Democratic contests.

Super Tuesday 2: March 4, 2008

After Obama won his 11th consecutive victory on the February 19th primaries in Wisconsin and Hawaii, Clinton was desperate to win the March 4th primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island & Vermont. Huckabee also needed more victories to prevent McCain from reaching the needed 1,191 delegates for the Republican nomination.

Clinton won all of the states except for Vermont, which Obama won. McCain won all of the primaries, causing Governor Huckabee to leave the race that evening.

Pennsylvania Primary

After Clinton's victories on Super Tuesday 2, both Democrats looked ahead to the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd. Obama lost some popularity after video clips were shown of his Pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, saying "God damn America!" during a sermon. Obama also commented about people bitterly clinging to guns and religion because they were upset with Washington policies. Clinton beat Obama by 9 percentage points, continuing the long drawn-out contest between the two. John McCain was able to easily win the primary as the Republican party's presumptive nominee.

Guam Caucus

On May 3rd, Guam held its Democratic caucuses. Out of more than 4,500 votes, Senator Obama won by 7 votes. The results gave Obama 2 pledged delegates and Senator Clinton 2 pledged delegates.

Indiana and North Carolina Primary

Both Indiana and North Carolina held their primaries on May 6th. Heading into the primary, registered African American voters reported receiving "robocalls" telling them they were not registered to vote. The calls were traced back to an organization called "Women's Voices Women Vote". The organization included members close to the Clintons. The calls ended with an order from the state Attorney General. Senator Obama proceeded to win the primary with 56.1%.

Leading into the Indiana primary, the polls were very close, with neither candidate leading by more than the polls' margin-of-error. Senator Clinton was looking for a large win to follow up on the Pennsylvania primary, with much the same demographic as PA and Ohio. Senator Obama, though, surprised many in the news media and the Clinton campaign by losing by only a small margin, 50.56% - 49.44%. With the near-split of the delegates in Indiana, combined with his win in North Carolina, the media began to declare Senator Obama as the nominee, although he had not yet reached the necessary delegate count.

West Virginia Primary

With a strong working-class demographic, Senator Clinton was expected to win the West Virginia primary on May 13th. Polls leading into the primary had her up 29 points on Senator Obama. The final vote tally exceeded the polls, with Senator Clinton winning 66.99% - 25.67%.

Oregon and Kentucky Primaries

The Oregon primary was a mail-only primary--the only such primary in the nation. Democratic voters received ballots in the mail between May 2nd and May 6th, and had to be received by county election officials by May 20th. Polling leading up to the primary showed Senator Obama with a 10-15% lead over Senator Clinton. Obama held a rally on May 18th at the Tom McCall Waterfront Park in Portland which drew an estimated 72,000 people. It was the largest rally Obama had held, more than doubling the 35,000 that came out to see him in Pennsylvania. By the end of the vote tally, Obama had won the state primary 58.5% - 40.5%.

The Kentucky primary, held the same day, was long believed a lock for Senator Clinton. The voter demographic mirrored the West Virginia primary, with a heavy working-class population. Senator Clinton easily won the primary, 65.5% - 29.9%. The large win, though, was drowned out in the media by Senator Obama's win in Oregon, and more importantly, by the endorsement of Senator Obama by former opponent and former vice presidential candidate, John Edwards.

Puerto Rico Primary

With Clinton behind in both pledged and superdelegates at this point in the race, every primary and delegate became even more important to forestall Obama reaching the necessary number of delegate to clinch the nomination. Clinton's strategy was to win out the primaries and work to convince superdelegates to support her nomination at the party convention as the best chance to beat McCain. Thus Puerto Rico, usually an afterthought in previous elections, rated visits by both candidates before the June 1st primary. Heading into the primary, Clinton led in two polls by 13% each time. The results beat poll expectations, with Clinton winning the primary 67.7% - 31.27%.

Montana and South Dakota Democratic Primaries

The last Democratic primaries were held on June 3rd. Senator Obama needed to win one of the primaries, and merely come close in the other to clinch the nomination. In Montana, Obama got the win he needed, defeating Senator Clinton 56.3%-41.25%. In South Dakota, Senator Clinton won, but with a close enough margin to give Obama the final delegates necessary. The result of the primary was 55.35% - 44.65%. Senator Obama was in Saint Paul, Minnesota, the site of the Republican Nominating Convention, to accept the party's unofficial nomination. [24]

See Also

Articles about the 2008 Presidential Election from previous "Breaking News"

References

  1. http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/calendar/
  2. http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/calendar/
  3. http://www.miamiherald.com/515/story/43160.html
  4. Uncommitted numbers
  5. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/will_third_party_candidates_tip_the_presidential_race
  6. http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_520_404.aspx
  7. http://www.pollster.com/
  8. Politico's 2008 Swing State Map
  9. Offshore Drilling poll
  10. http://www.lpconvention.org/
  11. http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/05/25/libertarians-pick-barr-as-presidential-nominee/
  12. http://www.constitutionparty.com/news.php?aid=751
  13. http://www.gp.org/press/pr-national.php?ID=79
  14. http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Feb24/0,4670,APNader,00.html
  15. http://www.votenader.org/about/matt-gonzalez/
  16. "I'm Not Running for President, but..."
  17. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ifK7vLWH4aU4urzB-4bSX1u4QF9QD8SC0EI00
  18. http://www.valuesvoterdebate.com/pollresults.cfm, Brownback lost sizably to Mike Huckabee.
  19. http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/04/chris-dodd-abandons-presidential-campaign-after-poor-showing-in-iowa/
  20. http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/04/chris-dodd-abandons-presidential-campaign-after-poor-showing-in-iowa/
  21. http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03/12/democratic-candidate-gravel-endorses-green-party-presidential-hopeful/
  22. http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/24/kucinich-drops-presidential-bid/
  23. AP: Bill Richardson Drops Out of Democratic Presidential Race, Associated Press, Fox News Channel, January 9, 2008
  24. Barack Obama Democratic Nomination Victory Speech