Difference between revisions of "United States presidential election, 2012"

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The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.  No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is at 7.9% (and real unemployment much higher).<ref>The [[economy]] grew less than predicted in the first quarter, and "the last time the economy was this slow was in the last year of President [[George H.W. Bush]]’s one term in office" - '''''who then lost reelection'''''. [http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/0427/GDP-report-puts-Obama-in-economic-gray-zone.-Will-Republicans-profit]  The September 7 labor report observed, "Just 63.5% of the working-age population was either employed or actively looking for work -- '''''a 30-year low'''''." [http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/07/news/economy/august-jobs-report/index.html]</ref>
 
The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.  No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is at 7.9% (and real unemployment much higher).<ref>The [[economy]] grew less than predicted in the first quarter, and "the last time the economy was this slow was in the last year of President [[George H.W. Bush]]’s one term in office" - '''''who then lost reelection'''''. [http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/0427/GDP-report-puts-Obama-in-economic-gray-zone.-Will-Republicans-profit]  The September 7 labor report observed, "Just 63.5% of the working-age population was either employed or actively looking for work -- '''''a 30-year low'''''." [http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/07/news/economy/august-jobs-report/index.html]</ref>
  
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It is the first election in the history of the United States where neither of the two major candidates is a christian, one being a muslim, the other one a mormon.
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It is the first election in the history of the United States where neither of the two major candidates is a christian, one being a muslim, the other one a mormon.<ref>http://carm.org/is-mormonism-christian</ref><ref>see [[Obama's Religion]]</ref>
  
 
Obama was leading in the polls by a substantial margin until the first presidential debate, which Romney won by the widest margin every recorded by Gallup polling.  Afterward the race became a statistical tie in polling.
 
Obama was leading in the polls by a substantial margin until the first presidential debate, which Romney won by the widest margin every recorded by Gallup polling.  Afterward the race became a statistical tie in polling.

Revision as of 13:04, November 4, 2012

The Presidential Election 2012 is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is at 7.9% (and real unemployment much higher).[1]

It is the first election in the history of the United States where neither of the two major candidates is a christian, one being a muslim, the other one a mormon.[2][3]

Obama was leading in the polls by a substantial margin until the first presidential debate, which Romney won by the widest margin every recorded by Gallup polling. Afterward the race became a statistical tie in polling.

This election will be like either the election of 1980, when a large bloc of undecided voters moved to the socially conservative challenger (Ronald Reagan) in the last few weeks, or the election of 1948, when the RINO Thomas Dewey was unable to attract grassroots voters despite the unpopularity of Harry Truman and the deteriorating economy. Statistically at 45 days remaining before the election, it is very rare for the challenger to garner a large upswing in the polls [4].

Following the 2012 Republican Primaries the Republican National Convention nominated the RINO Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, and their strategy appears to be to duck and avoid social issues as much as possible. The selection and Paul Ryan as VP and polling during the first half of the convention showed only a slight bounce in voter support for Romney.

A handful of swing states are expected to select the winner. Currently polls show Barack Hussein Obama with a slight lead in many of these states, but this may change once the Presidential debates 2012 start. The key swing states are Ohio and Florida, where both campaigns are spending vast amounts of money. As of late September, Mr Obama is widening the lead in both states[5].

Issue or Factor Mitt Romney Barack Obama Comment
Social issues Romney has downplayed social issues, but supports defunding Planned Parenthood and would likely nominate more conservative judges. Obama is vocally pro-abortion, pro-same-sex marriage, and pro-homosexual agenda. As with Tom Dewey's loss in 1948, Romney's running away from social issues could cost him the election.
Economic issues Romney favors free enterprise, low taxes, and personal responsibility. Obama says he inherited the crisis from Republicans. The advantage here is Romney's.
Likability Romney's likability rating stands at only 31%, and has been lower. Obama's likability rating is at 48%. Advantage to Obama.
Debates Romney is a good debater. Obama struggles without a teleprompter, but will benefit from liberal moderators. Advantage to Romney.
VPs Paul Ryan has youth, energy, and likability, but is part of the Big Government Republican leadership in Congress, which has an ultra-low approval rating; Romney has been criticized for not using Ryan more effectively in the campaign.[6] Joe Biden is a gaffe-prone goofball, but is protected by the liberal media. Toss-up here, or maybe a slight edge to Ryan.
Fundraising Mitt's a very strong fundraiser, but in doing so he has had to sacrifice precious time for the campaign trail[7]. However he has the support of numerous friendly Super PACs. Obama's fundraising has been weaker than predicted, but limousine liberals have donated millions. Slight advantage to Romney
Gaffes/staying on message 47% of American don't pay income tax and won't vote for me[8][9]/London Olympics not ready comment[10] "You didn't build that" Obama has a media covering up his gaffes any way they can, but Romney has better control of his message. Advantage to Romney.

Campaign strategy

Both campaigns have focused on key battleground states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia.[11] A CNN summary of poll of likely voters taken just before the first debate had Obama leading Romney in Florida, 47% to 46%, in Virginia 48% to 46% and in Ohio 52% to 43%.[11]

Debates

The Commission on Presidential Debates is sponsoring four debates.[12] Although many candidates will appear on the ballot in some states, the Commission is limiting participation in the debates to just candidates that appear on enough states to be mathematically eligible to win the presidency. Candidates also must gain at least 15% support in five national polls as of the date of determination, to be some time after Labor Day 2012.[13] The debates are:

An independent presidential debate, sponsored by the Free and Equal Elections Foundation and moderated by former CNN host Larry King, took place on October 23, 2012, at the Hilton Hotel in Chicago, Illinois. President Obama and Governor Romney declined invitations, while Johnson, Goode, Stein and Anderson participated.[17] A second independent debate is scheduled to take place on October 30 in Washington, D.C.[18]

Minor parties

With record-low support for either major party candidate, this could be a year when minor parties do unusually well.

Party Candidate Comments
Constitution Party[19] Virgil Goode[20] Popular ex-Congressman from Virginia who had previously won election as a Democrat, Independent, and Republican. Joined the Constitution Party in 2010. Opposes illegal immigration and calls for a reduction in legal immigration as well. Won the Constitution Party nomination for president in April on the first ballot.
Green Party[21] Jill Stein[22] Defeated Roseanne Barr for the Green Party nomination. Criticizes Obama for allegedly perpetuating the policies of the Bush administration. Supports the Occupy Wall Street protests. Was previously the Green Party candidate in a series of elections in Massachusetts including a Gubernatorial Election against Mitt Romney (among others).
Justice Party[23] Rocky Anderson[24] Former mayor of Salt Lake City, Utah (2000-08)
Libertarian Party[25] Gary Johnson[26] The former Republican two-term governor of New Mexico, Johnson favors the fair tax, ending American military actions overseas, legalizing marijuana, expanding legal immigration and allowing same-sex marriage. Given Ron Paul's libertarian campaign for the Republican nomination and the exclusion of Johnson from most of the debates, there was little room for Johnson as a Republican this election cycle. He won the Libertarian Party nomination on May 5, 2012.
Peace and Freedom Party[27] Roseanne Barr[28] Comedienne and former TV actress
Party for Socialism and Liberation[29] Peta Lindsay Student and anti-war activist (not even constitutionally qualified to serve as president - less than 35 years of age)
America's Party[30] Tom Hoefling[31]
Objectivist Party[32] Tom Stevens
Socialist Workers Party[33] James Harris
Socialist Party USA[34] Stewart Alexander[35]
American Third Position Party[36] Merlin Miller[37] White Nationalist Party
Grass Roots Party[38] Jim Carlson
Freedom Socialist Party[39] Stephen Durham
Prohibition Party[40] Jack Fellure
Socialist Equality Party[41] Jerry White

References

  1. ↑ The economy grew less than predicted in the first quarter, and "the last time the economy was this slow was in the last year of President George H.W. Bush’s one term in office" - who then lost reelection. [1] The September 7 labor report observed, "Just 63.5% of the working-age population was either employed or actively looking for work -- a 30-year low." [2]
  2. ↑ http://carm.org/is-mormonism-christian
  3. ↑ see Obama's Religion
  4. ↑ http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/the-statistical-state-of-the-presidential-race/?ref=politics
  5. ↑ http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us/politics/polls-show-obama-widening-lead-in-ohio-and-florida.html?hp
  6. ↑ Felicia Sonmez and David Fahrenthold. "In GOP recipe, too little Ryan for conservatives' taste", Washington Post, September 25, 2012, p. A1. 
  7. ↑ http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/romney-camp-talks-of-dialing-down-fund-raising/?ref=politics
  8. ↑ "Are Romney's '47 percent' comments beginning to move the polls?", Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved on September 25, 2012. 
  9. ↑ Linda Feldmann. "Mitt Romney gaffes: 11 times the button-down candidate should have buttoned up", Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved on September 25, 2012. 
  10. ↑ Jim Acosta. "Romney trip begins in shambles", CNN, July 27, 2012. Retrieved on September 25, 2012. 
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 Steinhauser, Paul. "New polls in crucial battlegrounds", October 3, 2012. Retrieved on October 4, 2012. 
  12. ↑ "Commission on Presidential Debates Announces Sites, Dates, and Candidate Selection Criteria for 2012 General Election", Commission on Presidential Debates.
  13. ↑ "2012 Candidate Selection Criteria", Commission on Presidential Debates.
  14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 Kiely, Kathy (October 31, 2011). Fall 2012 Presidential Debates Set. National Journal. Retrieved on October 12, 2012.
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 Blake, Aaron (August 13, 2012) "Presidential debate moderators announced: Crowley is first woman in 20 years", The Washington Post. Retrieved October 12, 2012.
  16. ↑ Little, Morgan (July 25, 2012) "Presidential debate formats announced, feature town hall", Los Angeles Times. Retrieved October 12, 2012.
  17. ↑ Third-party candidates finally get their on presidential debate washingtonpost.com, Groer, Annie
  18. ↑ Another third-party debate in the works washingtonpost.com, Hicks, Josh
  19. ↑ http://constitutionparty.com/
  20. ↑ http://www.goodeforpresident2012.com/index.html
  21. ↑ http://www.gp.org/index.php
  22. ↑ http://www.jillstein.org/
  23. ↑ http://www.justicepartyusa.org/
  24. ↑ http://www.voterocky.org/
  25. ↑ http://www.lp.org/
  26. ↑ http://www.garyjohnson2012.com/
  27. ↑ http://www.peaceandfreedom.org/home/
  28. ↑ http://www.roseanneforpresident2012.org/
  29. ↑ http://www.pslweb.org/
  30. ↑ http://www.selfgovernment.us/
  31. ↑ http://www.tomhoefling.com/
  32. ↑ http://www.objectivistparty.us/
  33. ↑ http://www.themilitant.com/index.shtml
  34. ↑ http://vote-socialist.org/
  35. ↑ http://www.stewartalexandercares.com/
  36. ↑ http://american3rdposition.com/
  37. ↑ http://merlinmiller2012.com/
  38. ↑ http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/07/07/grassroots-party-nominates-a-presidential-ticket/
  39. ↑ http://www.socialism.com/drupal-6.8/
  40. ↑ http://www.socialism.com/drupal-6.8/
  41. ↑ http://www.socialequality.com/

See also

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