User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds
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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Ferret (Talk | contribs) at 06:12, May 21, 2016. It may differ significantly from current revision.
Probabilities from 5 March
| Candidate | 5 March 2016 | 7 March 2016 | 13 March 2016 | 16 March 2016 | 25 March 2016 | 27 March 2016 | 31 March 2016 | 5 April 2016 | 6 April 2016 | 7 April 2016 | 14 April 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 26.6% | 21.0% | 20.1% | 20.4% | 21.4% | 21.0% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 14.2% |
| Marco Rubio | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Cruz | 2.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.5% |
| John Kasich | 1.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
| Paul Ryan | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | ||||
| Mitt Romney | 0.8% | 0.6% | |||||||||
| Republican Total | 35.9% | 34.7% | 32.1% | 31.7% | 31.9% | 29.6% | 28.8% | 28.3% | 28.7% | 28.7% | 29.0% |
| Hilary Clinton | 57.6% | 56.0% | 57.0% | 60.3% | 61.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | 59.0% | 56.1% | 54.5% | 60.0% |
| Bernie Sanders | 3.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 8.5% |
| Joe Biden | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| Democrat Total | 62.0% | 63.2% | 65.8% | 68.2% | 68.1% | 70.4% | 71.2% | 71.7% | 71.3% | 71.3% | 71.0% |
| Michael Bloomberg | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Independent Total | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Probabilities from 28 April
| Candidate | 28 April 2016 | 7 May 2016 | 14 May 2016 | 21 May 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 21.0% | 27.2% | 25.1% | 27.2% |
| Ted Cruz | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Kasich | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Republican Total | 26.7% | 27.2% | 25.1% | 27.2% |
| Hilary Clinton | 68.8% | 69.0% | 67.9% | 64.9% |
| Bernie Sanders | 3.1% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% |
| Joe Biden | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% |
| Democrat Total | 73.3% | 72.8% | 74.9% | 72.8% |
