Arkansas typically votes Republican in presidential elections; George W. Bush won the state 51%-46% in 2000, 54%-45% in 2004 and John McCain 59%-39% in 2008. <ref>http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html</ref> However, Democrats dominate local government. They hold a supermajority in the state legislature and every statewide office in the state.
Senator Blanche Lincoln, a Democrat up for reelection in 2010, has lost favor with the voters, according to recent polls. Lincoln won the approval of only 36% for the job she does as senator, with 44% disapproving, according to an Aug. 21-24 Public Policy Polling survey. It Her support has fallen 13 points since March. The poll showed Lincoln running even or even slightly trailing, when matched up against three potential Republican challengers -- even though none of those GOP contenders is well known statewide. She is being dragged down by Obama's falling popularity, as only 30% of Arkansans support Obama on health care.<ref> Public Policy Polling, "Lincoln looking vulnerable," [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AR_826424.pdf August 26, 2009 press release]</ref> Although Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state 37% to 29%, the 33% who are independent are quite conservative--more so than independents in any other state.
==Economy==