Difference between revisions of "Talk:Main Page"

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[[Talk:Main Page/Archive index]]
 
[[Talk:Main Page/Archive index]]
  
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==War news==
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*'''''[https://thepeacemonger.substack.com/p/provoked-how-decades-of-american Provoked: How Decades of American Policy Set the Stage for Catastrophe in Ukraine].'''''
 +
:*[https://korybko.substack.com/p/russias-security-guarantee-requests Russia’s Security Guarantee Requests Would Have Restored Ukraine’s Full Independence].
 +
::Comment: It's too late now to go back to 2014, or even 2022 with so many dead.
 +
[[File:Wager.PNG|center|750px|thumb|]]
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*''[[The American Conservative]]'': [https://www.theamericanconservative.com/trumps-broken-deals-make-foreign-policy-difficult/ Trump’s Broken Deals Make Foreign Policy Difficult]. ''America’s friends and adversaries alike believe the U.S. president can’t be trusted.''
 +
:Comment: As one commentator suggested, [[American foreign policy]] is not like [[New York]] [[real estate]], where you don't pay contractors, forcing them to sue and settle for less.
 +
*[https://youtu.be/DjwDsQzZqOU No matter who you vote for, you always get John McCain].
 +
*[[Conflicts Forum]]: [https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/exaggerated-us-capabilities-unmasked Exaggerated US capabilities unmasked as US’ image collapses].
 +
*[[Richard Sakwa]]: [[NATO]] Is [[Escalating]] the [[Ukraine War]] - [[Moscow]] Rebuilds [[Deterrence theory|Deterrence]]. [https://youtu.be/7whRxywj3Ec]
 +
*[https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/trump-world-all-war-all-the-time Trump World: All War All The Time].
 +
:*[https://russiatruthdotcom.substack.com/p/trumps-schoolyard-geopolitics-and Trump’s Schoolyard Geopolitics and the "They Just Hate Each Other" Farce].
 +
*[[Steve Jermy]]: [https://youtu.be/BgVsAyukjMU End of U.S. Military Primacy - New Strategic Thinking Requried]
 +
*[[Larry Johnson]]: Every turn of the [[economic sanctions|sanctions]] screw against [[Iranian]] and [[Russian]] [[oil]] tightens the global supply of it, and the [[price]] is paid at every pump in [[the West]]. ...The campaign to deny [[Tehran]] its [[revenue]] is simultaneously a campaign to raise the cost of [[energy]] for the sanctioning [[coalition]]’s own [[voter]]s."
 +
*[[News Forensics]]: [https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/both-sides-now-proxy-wars Both sides now: proxy wars].
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{{quotebox-float|[[Ukraine]] is a [[US]] and [[NATO]] [[proxy]] setup to conduct unprovoked full-scale [[war]] against [[Russia]], initially by attacking [[Russian]] [[people]] in [[Donbass]] and [[Lugansk]] and [[Odessa]].
 +
 +
In 2022 [[NATO]] had equipped [[Ukrainian]] armies creating the largest [[military]] force in [[Europe]] at the time for a “final solution” to kill or drive out Russian speaking Ukrainians in southern and [[eastern Ukraine]], an effort which had begun in 2014 when the [[neo-Nazi]]s overthrew the [[legal]]ly and [[democratic]]ally [[election|elect]]ed [[government]] of [[Ukraine]].
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The [[Russian]]s call this [[war]] a "[[Special Military Operation]]" because it is not a [[war]] against [[Ukraine]] but rather a defensive operation against the [[Russophobic]] [[nation]]s of [[Europe]] and the [[Anglo]]sphere. Now of course the [[American]]s are pretending that the [[war]] is [[Ukraine]]’s, despite providing [[intelligence]] and targeting information to [[Ukraine]] as well as [[weapon]]s to [[US]] [[allies]] in [[Europe]] who provide those same [[weapon]]s to [[Kyiv]], although they get blown up on arrival for the most part.
  
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==War news==
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The [[hypocrisy]] is obvious. But this is the [[American]] way of [[war]] since [[Vietnam]]...}}
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*[https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/text-of-mou-released-major-geopolitical Text Of MOU Released--Major Geopolitical Shifts Ahead]
+
*[[Yanis Varoufakis]]: [https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/yanis-varoufakis-eu-is-finished-and EU Is Finished & China Can Now Pull the Plug on the U.S. Economy].
−
:*[[Prof Robert Pape]]: [https://escalationtrap.substack.com/p/stage-iv-begins-inside-the-bloombergs Stage IV Begins? -- Inside the Bloomberg's Iran MOU].
+
 
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::"the United States may now be entering Stage IV of the Escalation Trap: '''acceptance of the gradual emergence of an [[Iran]]ian [[sphere of influence]].'''
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*[https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/trump-the-screwup The Pentagon is the largest consumer of oil distillates on Earth and is facing the reality of having blown up, directly or unintentionally, too many refineries to be capable of further and wider war.]
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::"a stronger Iran creates new incentives for [[Israel]] to act before Iranian power grows further. And if Israel concludes that [[diplomacy]] is accelerating rather than limiting Iranian influence, the next sixty days could become more dangerous, not less."
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:"Please read that last paragraph again. The idea that the US can launch a new major campaign against Iran without diesel or jet fuel—or with limited supplies—is absurd. Remember, if Trump runs supplies down to zero, Russia still has what it needs.
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*[[Scott Creighton]]: [https://scottcreighton.substack.com/p/magafact-trump-on-minab-massacre MAGAfact: Trump on Minab Massacre - Sh*t Happens].
+
 
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*[https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/lessons-for-iran-from-the-korean Lessons for Iran from the Korean War].
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*[https://youtu.be/YYYRKxtsPaQ Dissecting the deep state cadaver].
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*[[Andrew Sullivan]]: America's [[Suez Crisis|Suez Moment]]. [https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/americas-suez-moment-b4d]
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*[[Krainer]]: [https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/alex-krainer-the-wests-political The West's Political Legitimacy Crisis Is Triggering World War III].
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*[[User:Conservative]] Update: [https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/10/democratic-establishment-angie-nixon-abdul-el-sayed-rahm-emanuel.html Democratic Establishment Stuck in Groundhog Day of Neoliberal Economics and Neocon Foreign Policy].
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*Aurelien: [https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/while-we-were-sleeping Life is full of surprises.]
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{{quotebox-float|I’m reliably informed that there are people in Washington and other western capitals who were “surprised” by the ineffectiveness of the recent US/Israeli campaign against Iran, and by the effective surrender of the US as demonstrated in the very one-sided Memorandum of Understanding agreed last week. I put “surprised” in quotation marks, because it’s a word I will come back to several times, and it’s a kind of leitmotif for western policy and western misunderstanding over the last couple of generations. It’s not unique to the West, to be fair, but the West has been the most powerful politico-military actor of modern times, and we’ll concentrate on the West for the most part.
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*''[[Responsible Statecraft]]'': [https://responsiblestatecraft.org/burrito-war-affordability/ Let them eat burritos: Out of touch influencers risk all for Trump war]. ''Republicans on pro-war autopilot are mocking Americans who are concerned about rising prices. Not a good look ahead of the midterms.''
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*[[Alastair Crooke]]: [https://youtu.be/ToksxXw0e_Q US quest for global domination comes apart as Europe burns].
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:*[[Alastair Crooke]]: [https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/the-war-of-grand-design-transforms The 'War of Grand Design' Transforms to More Narrowly Bolster US Hegemony].
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{{quotebox-float|The networked supra-national stratum that long has pursued its global ‘'[[History_of_NATO#Origins_and_mission_creep|Grand Design]]’ through manufacturing public consent for wars of imposed compliance has, at last, run up against the limits to power. We are, indeed, at an ‘emperor has no clothes’ moment. All can see it.
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Its traditional tools — the [[US]] [[military]], the [[dollar]] system, the credit trap, the [[Bretton Woods]] structures, shock [[economic]] therapy and [[currency]] [[war]]s — are failing to preserve the [[US]] [[elitism|élite]] ''weltanschauung'' wherein it would be ‘unimaginable’ that the US having won the [[Cold War]] were it to face a world in which the US did not continue to dictate the blueprint
 +
 
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“In the golden light of an [[Athens]] evening, with the [[Acropolis]] over his shoulder”, [[US Secretary of State Marco Rubio]], on 7 October, openly praised [[colonialism]]; he engaged in egregious erasures of [[history]], and demanded a return to [[Western]] domination of the world. Rubio asserted that [[the West]] must use [[military]] force to “maintain its place at the head of the world”; [[the West]] is “the greatest [[civilization]] in the world”, he declared, emphasizing that it is a “civilization that we must fight to defend today with the same passion as our forefathers did”.
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But now, those traditional tools to preserve its place at the head of the world are proving less effective against states that possess alternatives — [[China]], [[Russia]] and [[Iran]] are clear pointers to the trend that [[economic]], [[financial]] and even [[kinetic]] [[war]]s are failing to produce quick results. Quick victories for the Matrix are no longer so readily available.
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To suggest, on the other hand, that [[civilisational state]]s could stand up to the [[US]] more forcefully ignores everything about the deep nature of this conflict. The ‘[[One Global Government]] Grand Design’, is a war to eliminate those [[Civilisational States]] that offer a different consciousness through which to view and understand the world.}}
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*[[Korybko]]: [https://korybko.substack.com/p/what-trade-off-could-trumps-grand What Trade-Off Could Trump’s Grand Deal Between Putin & Zelensky Realistically Entail?]
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*[https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/10/coffee-break-armed-madhouse-weapons-fetishism-when-the-tools-of-war-no-longer-serve-strategic-ends.html Armed Madhouse – Weapons Fetishism: When the Tools of War no Longer Serve Strategic Ends].
 +
*[[Patrick Lawrence]]: [https://consortiumnews.com/ Trump & the Rrrrussians].
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{{quotebox-float|Given the gush of vitriol and condemnation since Oct. 9, when [[Donald Trump]] announced his deal to import 5 million metric tons of [[Russian]] [[diesel]], roughly 37 million barrels, one would think the president had surrendered the [[United States]]’ [[sovereignty]] to the [[Kremlin]], or handed over the [[Ukrainian]]s to the [[Russian army]], or rankly betrayed the [[European]]s or altogether renounced what we picturesquely call [[Western civilization]].
 +
 
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This is, indeed, what we read daily in the [[MSM|corporate press]] these days and what we are supposed to think. It is 2016 redux, it seems. Another round of [[Russiagate]] may not be far off, given 16 House Democrats have introduced a Prohibit Corrupt Russia Oil Deals Act and 12 senators now attack the diesel accord as “a gift to our adversary.”
 +
 
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If there is one thing essential to recall about those dreary years it is that the wobbly-from-the-first [[Russiagate]] edifice, the whole of it, was made of mis– and [[disinformation]], hyperbole, innuendo, extravagant abuses of office and [[propaganda]] incessantly disseminated in [[MSM|corporate media]].
 +
 
 +
It was, in short, the [[Deep State]]’s attempt to scuttle any effort to advance beyond the poisonous [[Russophobia]] it had spent a decade cultivating (taking my date from [[Vladimir Putin]]’s era-defining speech to the [[Munich Security Conference]] in 2007).
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 +
It is the same again as Trump tries once more to end the [[war in Ukraine]] and refashion East–West relations, a project the old “[[MIC]]IMATT”— the [[MIC|military-industrial]], [[congressional]], [[intelligence]], [[media]], [[academic]] and [[think tank]] [[The  Blob|blob]] — simply cannot abide.}}
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 +
*[[User:Conservative]]'s hero [[John Mearsheimer]]: [https://youtu.be/dFcCJtCE4Ig Are Aircraft Carriers Obsolete?]
 +
 
 +
*[[Will Schryver]]: [https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/war-is-a-moral-argument War Is A Moral Argument].
 +
:[[User:Conservative]]'s argument that a lack of [[flush toilet]]s in the frozen north justifies [[war]] under [[Thomas Aquinas]]' [[Just War Theory]] fails the [[moral]]ity test. It also fails the [[common sense]] and [[sanity]] test.
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{{quotebox-float|Take out a pencil, draw a line down the center of the page and on the left hand-column write out every individual, nation, organization, institution and political movement that is aligned with, and advanced the [[global warming]]/[[climate change]] agenda.
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Then, on the right-hand column, write out every individual, nation, organization, institution and political movement that is aligned with, advances the interests of, and [[Ukraine aid|support for Ukraine]].
 +
 
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Notice something in the commonality?
 +
 
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They are a perfect match.
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25+ years of [[Global Warming]], [[Climate Change]], [[Net Zero]], Carbon Trading, Carbon Taxing, [[Build Back Better]] etc. advocacy, revolves around the singularity of one issue, [[energy]] production.
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From that baseline the [[western]] nemesis of a multi-trillion [[investment]] and [[banking]] system, built around the destruction of the [[coal]], [[oil]] and [[gas]] [[carbon]]-based [[energy]] sector is [[Russia]].
 +
 
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Additionally, over the past 10 years as [[western]] interests have stopped building [[oil]] refining capacity, [[Russia]] has expanded oil refining capacity.
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 +
All ‘modern’ opposition to Russia in the last 25 years, is now culminating…. But the root is something everyone misses. The root commonality of interests is Energy Production.
  
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In fact, governments experience surprises all the time, in the sense that things happen which were not expected, or things happen that were thought possible but very unlikely, or things that were thought inevitable don’t happen at all. This is sufficiently common in [[international politics]], and sufficiently serious in its implications, that I thought it might be useful to devote an essay to the question of Why such surprises happen: a subject which hardly anyone takes an interest in, since politically it’s usually enough just to condemn you opponents for being [[naive]], [[ignorant]] or [[stupid]], demand an enquiry and the job is done.
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The advocates for the system of dependencies created by the “[[climate change]]/net zero” energy processes are the same advocates supporting Ukraine and specifically supporting the targeting of [[Russian]] [[energy]] production vis-a-vis Russian oil refineries.}}
  
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[...]
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*[https://www.military.com/pentagon-nuclear-review-could-expand-war-options-outside-public-view Pentagon Nuclear Review Could Expand War Options Outside Public View]. ''The [[Pentagon]] is reviewing limited [[nuclear war]] options, raising questions about [[escalation]] risks and public disclosure of its findings.''
  
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The only way to deal with the problem of information saturation is by structured analysis of each piece of information, but this takes far more time than most government people have. What’s the source? Is it reliable? Has it been reliable in the past? Is there collateral for it? Does it sound logical and reasonable? Is it what I want to hear, rather than what is necessarily true? And so on. These sorts of questions—part of the training of intelligence analysts and for related disciplines— are just not feasible at scale.}}
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*[[Pentagon]] operates without its chief [[military]] planner: [[Hegseth]]’s dismisses and makes [[criminal]] referral of Joint Staff J5 Lieutenant General Brett Sylvia.
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:Excellent summary & analysis. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|WWJD? Would he claim 2 gay bathhouses in Russia compared to 300 in America justifies nuclear war?]]</sup> 12:20, June 24, 2026 (EDT)
 
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::"[[Best of the public]]" (see also [[12-12-12 Rule]]) refers to the general population, those with an [[IQ]] between 90 and 110 (in this sense, [[User:Conservative]]'s Essay's can be considered "the best of the public"); it should be remembered however it was "the Best of the public" that led to the 12 Plagues of Egypt and destruction of [[Sodom]] and Gomorrah. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|WWJD? Would he claim 2 gay bathhouses in Russia compared to 300 in America justifies nuclear war?]]</sup> 13:00, June 24, 2026 (EDT)
 
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*[[Conflicts Forum]]: [https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/the-price-and-consequences-of-defeat: The Price and Consequences of Defeat].
 
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:*[ Even the CIA-controlled Wikipedia recognizes it as a defeat].
 
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*[[Chas Freeman]]: [https://chasfreeman662157.substack.com/p/the-forever-war-in-west-asia-and The Forever War in West Asia and its Implications]. ''A Scene Setter for an Energy Intelligence Colloquium.''
 
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*[[Scott Ritter]]: [https://scottritter.substack.com/p/ukraine-and-the-end-of-nato Ukraine and the End of NATO].
 
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{{quotebox-float|[[Western alliance|Western]] [[mainstream media]] and its [[social media]] [[echo chamber]]s promote a [[narrative]] centered around the notion of [[Russian]] fatigue, [[Ukrainian]] resilience, and [[western]] resolve, and take delight in highlighting talking points premised on a Russian-generated quagmire that has dragged on longer than the [[Great Patriotic War]] of 1941-45. This narrative parallels that of the officially held positions of most of the nations that make up the membership of [[NATO]], which is no surprise, given the hand-in-glove relationship between [[corporate]]-controlled [[media]] and [[government]]s possessing a revolving door relationship with these same corporations.
 
  
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This narrative is deliberately misleading, since it is not designed to reflect [[fact]]-based [[truth]], but rather promote a [[fiction]] that is being used to shape [[public]] perception so that the -[[NATO war in Ukraine|Russo-Ukraine conflict]] can be sustained through to its desired conclusion—the [[strategic defeat]] of Russia. This objective is the formal position of NATO and its key constituent members, having been given voice numerous times since first being articulated in May of 2022. The concept is built around three basic pillars, those being the [[economic]] collapse of Russia brought about by [[economic sanctions]], the [[military]] exhaustion of Russia brought on by an endless war underwritten by the [[collective west]], and the disintegration of Russian [[societal]] structures leading to the termination of the Russian government headed by [[President Vladimir Putin]]....}}
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*[[CNN]]: [https://youtu.be/0cPRdwHWf64 Republicans turn against Hegseth after election losses].
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*[[Peter Beinart]]: [https://peterbeinart.substack.com/p/an-imperial-decline-story “An Imperial Decline Story”]. ''Aslı Bâli and [[Trita Parsi]] on what comes next for the [[US]], [[Israel]], and [[Iran]].''
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::This ain't gonna work. More heads have to role, beginning with [[Susie Wiles]]. Trump's best bet at this point is to whack [[Zelensky]] and resign, turn things over to [[JD Vance]]. [[User:RobSmith|Foghorn Leghorn]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|Do normal heterosexuals spend 20 yrs obsessing over gay bars, bathhouses and drag queens?]]</sup> 21:05, November 4, 2026 (EST)
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*[https://breakingdefense.com/2026/06/how-ukraines-military-is-adapting-after-four-years-of-war-with-russia/ Biden stooge reports on "frontline visit" to Ukraine four years too late].
 
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*[https://youtu.be/xpsrY_e4BeM "NATO Faces A Stunning Defeat", Mearsheimer's Chilling Ukraine Prediction | NATO SUMMIT]
 
  
  
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===Israel===
 
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*[[Alex Jones]]: [https://seemorerocks.substack.com/p/false-flag-tucker-carlsons-warning Israel has one trump card and its nuclear].
 
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*[[Peter Beinart]]: [https://peterbeinart.substack.com/p/bradlander2026 “This Reallignment is Happening.”] ''[[Brad Lander]] on the Jewish community’s shifting values on Israel-Palestine.''
 
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:"Our guest is Brad Lander, who last week won the [[Democratic]] nomination for [[Congress]] in [[New York]]’s 10th district. Brad’s victory is a milestone: A [[Jewish]] [[politician]], running on his support for [[Palestinian]] [[rights]], winning in one of the most Jewish districts in the country. Even a few years ago, it would have been unimaginable...."
 
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:*What a joke. Brad is no symptom. He is unstable. Upto a year ago he was linked to zionists. Beinart changed when Trump rose over a decade ago. Oddball Brad needs to see what they did with Scott Wiener even after he uttered the G word (due to intimidation). Or with the liberal victims of Oct 7, like this one https://x.com/Mazelit_/status/2074156335411642596 [[User:LaMarina|LaMarina]] ([[User talk:LaMarina|talk]]) 01:04, July 7, 2026 (EDT)
 
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:::What do you know about [[Abdul El-Sayed]]? ''[[The Intercept]]'': [https://theintercept.com/2026/06/29/abdul-el-sayed-jewish-voice-peace-senate/ Abdul El-Sayed Becomes First Senate Candidate Backed by Pro-Palestine Jewish Group]. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|Do normal heterosexuals spend 20 yrs Googling the locations of gay bathhouses?]]</sup> 10:46, July 7, 2026 (EDT)
 
  
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===Lebanon===
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===Strategic Summary Late October - Early November 2026===
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* Islamic Republic claims. [https://www.ryandawson.org/p/presstv-colleague-hit-by-israel-drone PressTV reporter hit by Israeli drone while reporting live].
+
The [[Persian Gulf]] is Closed on [[Tehran]]’s Terms: With three more tankers burning and US unmanned reconnaissance systematically downed, [[Western]] [[naval]] presence has failed to reopen the [[Strait of Hormuz]] to hostile commerce.
  
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* Senior US officials: Israel maintains ‘right to defend itself against’ Hezbollah attacks under US-Iran deal. “The deal is a ceasefire, and it will not be a one-way ceasefire,” an official said on Monday. [https://www.jns.org/news/u-s-news/senior-us-officials-israel-maintains-right-to-defend-itself-against-hezbollah-attacks-under-us-iran-deal].
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[[Economic sanctions]] have failed: The 10-fold increase in [[China]]-[[Iran]] rail freight traffic proves that continental integration across the [[Eurasian]] landmass provides a resilient alternative to [[Western]]-controlled sea lanes.
  
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* Senior US official. Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon not a condition for deal.
+
The multi-front [[reality]] is locked: From the [[Black Sea]] to the [[Gulf of Oman]], [[asymmetric warfare|asymmetric maritime]] and aerial strike systems have rewritten the rules of [[naval]] engagement, leaving [[capital]] fleets vulnerable to low-cost attrition.
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[https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/428677]
 
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[[User:Telling|Telling]] ([[User talk:Telling|talk]]) 23:55, June 15, 2026 (EDT)
 
  
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*[[Alastair Crooke]]: [https://youtu.be/5RrorBzJhgs IRAN’S TRIGGER WARNING: ‘Withdraw from Lebanon… Any Violations and We Strike].
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The [[delusion]] that the [[United States]] can launch a localized, painless strike against [[Iran]] to reassert authority is collapsing before the operation even begins.
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[[User:RobSmith|RobSmith]] ([[User talk:RobSmith|talk]])
 
  
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* While US Iran reach a deal via biased Pakistan/Qatar, Iran's Hezbollah attack... [https://www.timesofisrael.com/amid-us-iran-deal-idf-says-hezbollah-continues-attacking-troops-in-south-lebanon/ Amid U.S.-Iran Deal, Hizbullah Continues Attacking IDF Troops in South Lebanon]
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If [[Washington, D.C.|Washington]] launches its planned post-[[Midterm election|midterm]] assault, it will not trigger [[Iranian]] submission. It will detonate a multi-trillion-dollar regional conflagration that shuts down the global [[energy]] [[supply]], breaks the remaining [[naval]] architecture of the [[Middle East]], and delivers a fatal blow to the [[economic]] foundation of the late [[Western]] [[empire]].
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[[User:LaMarina|LaMarina]] ([[User talk:LaMarina|talk]]) 14:45, June 16, 2026 (EDT)
 
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:*''[[Times of Israel]]'': "A senior US official told reporters on Monday that the MOU signed a day earlier with Iran is '''not conditioned on Israel withdrawing from Lebanon.''' However, '''the deal still envisions a [[ceasefire]] that covers Lebanon''', as well as Iran, the US official said in a briefing with reporters."
 
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:::Comment: What's happening is fairly simple to see: US [[negotiator]]s are saying, "We can't control what [[Israel]] does" and [[Iran]]ian negotiators are saying "We can't control what [[Hezbollah]] does." So the can gets kicked down the road. Nonetheless, Iran does not concede its demand that Israel withdraw from Lebanon, not just a [[ceasefire]]. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|WWJD? Would he claim 2 gay bathhouses in Russia compared to 300 in America justifies nuclear war?]]</sup> 15:01, June 16, 2026 (EDT)
 
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::::*Open Source Intel: [https://x.com/Osint613/status/2066291045478912364?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Iranian Mehr News Agency has published the supposed 14 clauses of the MOU];
 
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:::::This item here:
 
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:::::*"Iran's missile program and '''support for resistance groups''' are '''removed from the agenda entirely"'''
 
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:::::is what gives the [[American]] side the right or position to claim it cannot control [[Israel]]i actions.
 
  
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===Iran===
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*[https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/tucker-carlson-claims-trump-planning Tucker Carlson Claims Trump Planning to Nuke Iran. But Could the US Really Pull It Off?] ''We examine the likelihood of such a mission being successful, and how it would potentially be carried out.''
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*''[[The American Conservative]]'': [https://www.theamericanconservative.com/trump-just-changed-the-iran-conversation/ Trump Just Changed the Conversation About Iran]. ''[[Washington, D.C.|Washington]] and [[Tehran]] need not be enemies forever.''
+
The nuclear option breaks down into two separately related but slightly different bombs: the B61-11 and B61-12. Their differences are crucial in understanding the potential options against Iran.
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{{Quotebox|“We got along very well with [[Iran]],” [[Trump]] said on Monday in a joint press conference with [[France]]’s [[President Emmanuel Macron]]. “I find them to be more [[rational]], very smart,” Trump told [[NBC News]] last week.}}
+
:*[https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/when-stealth-meets-the-bomb-inside When Stealth Meets the Bomb: Inside the US-Israel Nuclear Strike Scenario on Iran’s Deep Bunkers].
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:*''[[NYT]]'': [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/15/world/middleeast/israel-netanyahus-iran-strategy.html "While Mr. Trump has praised Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, as pragmatic, he has called Mr. Netanyahu crazy, ungrateful and lacking in judgment"]
 
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:*[[Stockman]]: [https://davidstockman.substack.com/p/on-the-donalds-surrender-to-the-mullahs On The Donald’s Surrender To The Mullahs: Good for America But Too Late To Save His Own Skin].
 
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::"This last and most pathetic [[Regime Change]] [[War]] may finally destroy the [[UniParty]] [[consensus]] which has prevailed since the end of the [[Cold War]] in 1991; and set off a [[civil war]] in the [[Republican party]] that may finally rid the remnant that emerges from the baleful grasp of the [[Bibi]]/[[neocon]] [[Fifth Column]]. Stated differently, what the neocons will denounce as the Donald’s surrender will underscore better than anything else that the [[war]] was a gigantic mistake;"
 
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:*''[[Daily Caller]]'': [https://dailycaller.com/2026/06/16/donald-trump-iran-mou-peace-deal-israel-netanyahu-neocons-iranian-hardliners/ Here Are The 3 Factions Slipping Poison Pills Into Trump’s Peace Process].
 
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::"the Israelis, the Iran Hawks and Israel Firsters, and hardliners in the Iranian regime."
 
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::*[[Paul Craig Roberts]]: '[https://thealtworld.com/paul_craig_roberts/israel-first-is-prevailing-over-america-first Israel First Is Prevailing Over America First]. ''Betrayal by [[Trump]] and the [[Republican]]s.''
 
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*''[[Daily Mail]]'': [https://youtu.be/8wMoKLuL8Jc How Iran's $100k missile destroyed $1.5bn of US equipment].
 
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:$100,000 is 1/15,000 of $1.5 Billion; is this why the boys in the [[Pentagon]] need another half Trillion ($500,000,000,000) in the War budget so it can fail again at a crucial time in coming years and decades? [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|WWJD? Would he claim 2 gay bathhouses in Russia compared to 300 in America justifies nuclear war?]]</sup> 23:27, June 19, 2026 (EDT)
 
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*[[Korybko]]: [https://korybko.substack.com/p/dont-read-too-deeply-into-ghalibafs Don’t Read Too Deeply Into Ghalibaf’s Quip About A Sino-Iranian Bloc].
 
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*''[[The Grayzone]]'': [https://thegrayzone.substack.com/p/whats-behind-iranian-calls-for-revenge What's behind Iranian calls for revenge on Trump?]
 
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*[https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/bombing-railway-bridges Bombing Railway Bridges]
 
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{{quotebox-float|BREAKING: US President Donald Trump claims Iran called him “a while ago” and has told him it wants to make a deal, according to [[Reuters]].}}
 
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:*[[Doug Bandow]]: This is what he always says when HE wants to make a deal. He knows he has to get the [[oil]] flowing again. He knows the [[US]] has used up many of its [[missile]]s. He knows that all his claims about victory have been [[false]]. [https://x.com/Doug_Bandow/status/2075147269951656038]
 
  
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::Comment: [[Iran]] is through "[[negotiating]]" with [[Trump]]. Trump cannot keep his word. Next step is for Iran to announce its formal withdrawal from the [[NPT]].
+
*[https://global21.substack.com/p/the-use-of-a-nuclear-weapon-in-iran The use of a nuclear weapon in Iran may not destroy the mountain, but it destroys an entire model of international relations.]
 +
The use of tactical missiles and direct attacks against a regional power like [[Iran]] would redefine traditional concepts of [[state]] [[sovereignty]], respect for [[border]]s, and, above all, the [[logic]] of global [[nuclear deterrence]].
  
 +
In [[international law]] and [[International relations|relations between states]], territorial [[sovereignty]] is the fundamental pillar. A direct attack with tactical missiles would transform that dynamic and bring an end to traditional red lines. It would demonstrate that possessing a robust conventional army or a vast territory no longer prevents invasion or direct bombardment by [[technological]]ly superior forces.
  
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====Full text of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America====
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This would consolidate the idea that states can violate the [[sovereignty]] of others on the basis of anticipated threats, a precedent we already live with, but one that would reach another level with [[nuclear weapon]]s.
  
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The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, jointly and in good faith, agreed on the following on June 18, 2026:
+
The most dangerous shift would occur in how countries view [[nuclear weapon]]s. [[Historical]]ly, [[deterrence]] works on the premise that the cost of attacking a country is too high. If Iran, a country on the threshold of nuclear development, is attacked in a conventional and tactical manner, the [[geopolitical]] message would first and foremost be one of encouragement to [[proliferate]].
  
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1. The Islamic Republic of Iran, the United States of America, and their allies in the current war, by signing this memorandum of understanding, declare an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, and commit not to initiate any war or military operation against each other henceforth, to refrain from threats or use of force against each other, and to guarantee the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final agreement will confirm the permanent end of the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and the other provisions of this clause.
+
'''[[Joe Kent]]:''' [[America]] is no longer providing [[security guarantee]]s, that we're no longer capable of projecting power in the way that we once were. I think, you know, as dumb as the [[Iraq war]] was, [[Saddam Hussein]] had one of the bigger militaries at the time, especially in '91 when we went into [[Kuwait]] and expelled Saddam from there, we kept [[economic sanctions|sanctions]] on, we choked off [[Iraq]], and then in ' 03, we ran through the [[Iraq]]i [[army]] like a hot knife through butter and we just showed how muscular and powerful we were. We got humiliated because we didn't understand, you know, the [[insurgency]] factor. We didn't learn any of our lessons from [[Vietnam war|Vietnam]]. But we still had a lot of [[military]] might. We could still project power. We could still dominate the [[Persian Gulf]] with our [[aircraft carrier]]s. We dominated the skies. Like we never even thought other than like, some rockets and mortars here and there. We never thought about having to be threatened from the skies.  
  
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2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America commit to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
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"But the world has changed and we're no longer going to be the guarantors of [[security]] for the entire [[Persian Gulf|Gulf]].  
  
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3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America commit to conduct negotiations and reach a final agreement within a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
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"I do think too, that we've shown a lot of our weakness, and that is going to affect the [[Petrodollar]], and that's pretty dangerous. So I think we should be trying to mitigate that as much as we possibly can. We've already basically shown the [[GCC|Gulf countries]] that we can't keep our word. Our part of the bargain was, 'you guys use the [[Petrodollar]], you cut us in on all the transactions by using the [[dollar]] that you're making with the [[oil]], and we'll provide you [[security guarantee]]s. Well, our security guarantees bought them a bunch of [[ballistic missile]]s and [[Shahid]] [[drone]]s that took out a lot of their [[infrastructure]].  
  
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4. Immediately upon signing this memorandum of understanding, the United States of America will begin lifting its naval blockade and any harassment or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will completely end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, ship traffic will be proportional to the pre-war traffic volume as established by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America also commits to withdraw its military forces from the peripheral area of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final agreement.
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"So that part's changing. But also like the ability, I think, of like any kind of [[Great Power]] to go and to conquer another country just with [[Air defense|ballistic missiles and drone defense]]. That's proven that it's almost a [[zero-sum]] game. And [[Russia]], to a certain extent, is running into this in [[Ukraine]]. Now, obviously, we're backing the [[Ukrainian]]s and accelerating that [[war]], and that's dangerous as well. But in terms of the old way that we thought where, like one of the [[Great Power]]s could just go smack around another country and accomplish whatever their objectives were. That has changed. Overall, in terms of more moving towards a [[planet]] that actually has less conflict, that's a good thing. Countries are going to see they really have a limited ability to go in and enforce their will in other countries. We do need to rely on [[diplomacy]] on mutually beneficial [[trade]] and [[commerce]] as opposed to the big country can go smack around the little country." [https://youtu.be/KrDogTjN9eQ?t=1526]
  
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5. Upon signing this memorandum of understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements with its utmost effort for the safe passage of commercial ships, free of charge for only 60 days, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. Commercial ship traffic will commence immediately and will be established within 30 days considering the necessity of removing technical and military obstacles and mine clearance by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Islamic Republic of Iran will negotiate with the Sultanate of Oman to determine the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in accordance with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of the coastal countries of the Strait of Hormuz, and will also consult with other Persian Gulf coastal countries.
+
===Europe===
 +
*[[Black Mountain Analysis]]: [https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/the-geopolitical-trap-structural The Geopolitical Trap: Structural Incentives Prolonging the War in Ukraine [i] ''The war in Ukraine that will not stop...''
 +
*[[Ian Proud]]: [[AfD]] in [[Germany]] and [[Nigel Farage|Reform UK]] show why [[Europe]]’s [[liberal]] [[government]]s are trapped — continue the [[Ukraine war]] and they lose the [[voter]]s; end it and they lose them anyway. [https://thepeacemonger.substack.com/p/they-cant-stop-the-war-they-cant]
 +
:*[https://youtu.be/mD4W7f9SyMw Europe’s Winter of Starvation, Ukraine Collapse Underway] | [[Stas Krapivnik]]
 +
{{quotebox-float|'''[[Poland]]’s ruling [[liberal]]s plotting major [[escalation]]''' against [[Russia]]. [https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/09/polands-ruling-liberals-appear-to-be-plotting-a-major-escalation-against-russia.html] [[Fico]] warns:''' '[[The West]] wants to provoke [[NATO]]-[[Russia]] [[war]]' '''- [[Lavrov]] warns of devastating response. [https://youtu.be/rks0CcmC2zc] [[Donald Tusk]]: '''[[Ukraine]] losing 27,000 men per month.''' [https://www.military-stuff.org/russia-closes-orekhov-trap-tusk-admits-ukraine-loses-27k-each-month-us-diesel-export-ban-shocks-eu/]}}
 +
It's pretty obvious what this is all about: Now that [[the West]] has fought [[Russia]] "to the last [[Ukrainian]]", it's time to send in the [[German]] & [[Polish]] [[proxies]]. [[NATO]] was banking on a [[Ukraine]] win, although that was never a realistic hope. It did serve to exterminate much of the [[male]] [[Slavic]] [[population]] and advance the cause of weaning us off [[fossil fuels]], however. 
 +
*[https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/the-faulty-premises-underlying-europeans The Faulty Premises Underlying Europeans’ 'War on Russia' Hyper-Ventilation].
 +
:*[https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/09/amid-eu-war-hysteria-bloc-rearmament-remains-a-joke.html Amid EU War Hysteria, Bloc Rearmament Remains a Joke].
 +
:*[https://korybko.substack.com/p/european-nato-fears-that-the-us-wont European NATO Fears That The US Won’t Rush To Its Rescue If It Provokes A War With Russia].
 +
*[[John Helmer]]: Will [[Kaliningrad]] be the spark that ignites a [[nuclear war]]? [https://youtu.be/lqy_fLCfe3w]
 +
*[https://youtu.be/bfmO8LHbm3w Russia Would Win a Nuclear War Against Europe Quickly] | [[Sergei Karaganov]]
 +
*[[Korybko]]: [https://korybko.substack.com/p/natos-de-facto-expansion-to-the-caspian NATO’s De Facto Expansion To The Caspian Sea Is Inevitable].
 +
*[[Martin Armstrong]]: [[Forecasting]] [[Europe]]an [[False Flag]] Operations to Start [[War]] with [[Russia]]. [https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/martin-armstrong-forecasting-european]
 +
*[https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/10/unrest-across-europe-is-the-result-of-the-collapse-of-the-social-contract.html Unrest Across Europe Is the Result of the Collapse of the Social Contract].
 +
*''[[NYT]]'': [https://archive.is/oy10K It’s Not Just France. Europe’s Political Center Is Crumbling].
 +
{{quotebox-float|The mass [[riot]]s in [[France]], which started as protests over underfunded [[school]]s, are a shocking example.
  
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6. The United States of America commits, together with its regional partners, to create a definitive program agreed upon by both parties for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, providing at least 300 billion dollars. The implementation mechanism of this program will be finalized as part of the final agreement within 60 days. All necessary approvals, waivers, and licenses for the related financial transactions will be provided by the United States of America.
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But the [[phenomenon]] has been building for years, with the perceived failure of [[liberal democracy]] to make good on its promises of a better [[future]], especially for the young and the salaried [[working class]].
  
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7. The United States of America commits to end all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including United Nations Security Council resolutions, International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary, according to a timetable agreed upon as part of the final agreement. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the fundamental importance of the issue of sanction removal mentioned above and express their intention to address these matters promptly in negotiations to reach a mutual agreement on them.
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There is a growing perception among many [[Europe]]ans that [[tradition]]al [[political party|parties]] of the [[center-left]] and [[center-right]] do not offer real alternatives and are led by an [[education|educate]]d [[elitism|elite]] that has lost its connection to the poor, the [[work]]ers and the young.
  
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8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it will not produce or acquire nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America have agreed that the status of stored enriched materials will be resolved through a mechanism agreed upon by both parties and according to the timetable set forth in clause 7, at least by dilution on site, under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Both parties also agree to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed topics related to the nuclear needs of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on a satisfactory framework to be agreed upon in the final agreement. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this clause. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the fundamental importance of the nuclear issues mentioned above and express their intention to address these matters promptly in negotiations to reach a mutual agreement on them.
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Facing rising [[deficit]]s, expenses and [[interest rate]]s, [[government]]s feel constrained in what they can do to respond.}}
 +
{{quotebox-float|[[Russia]]n leadership has made it clear that once the remaining 10% of [[Donetsk]] Oblast is cleared, the [[diplomatic]] focus will not center on border adjustments, but on the complete [[demilitarization]] of the [[Ukrainian]] [[state]] and a [[legal]]ly binding revision of the [[Europe]]an [[security architecture]]. Late October 2026 marks the point where operational realities are overtaking [[Western]] [[political]] [[narrative]]s,}}
  
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9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America agree to maintain the status quo until a final agreement is reached; the Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the status quo in its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions against Iran nor deploy additional military forces in the region.
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*[https://responsiblestatecraft.org/kaliningrad-nato-russia/ Slouching toward Kaliningrad].
  
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10. The United States of America commits to immediately issuing waivers from the Treasury Department for the export of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services including banking transactions, insurance, transportation, etc., upon signing this memorandum of understanding and until the sanctions are lifted.
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*[[Korybko]]: [https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-post-war-european-security-architecture The Post-War European Security Architecture Is Beginning To Take Shape].
  
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11. The United States of America commits to fully making available the limited or blocked funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran for use upon implementation of this memorandum of understanding. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedure for releasing these funds during the negotiations. These funds, whether held in the main account or transferred, must be fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America commits to issuing all necessary approvals and licenses in this regard.
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*Off Cape Kaliakra in [[Bulgaria]]’s Exclusive Economic Zone, an [[Israel]]i-owned, [[Liberia]]n-flagged container vessel—the K-Ship Jet—was disabled by three unmanned subsurface vessels (UUVs). The attack confirms that stand-off [[maritime]] interdiction is no longer confined to the [[Persian Gulf]] or [[Red Sea]], but actively targets Israeli-linked [[commercial]] shipping across [[NATO]] waters in the [[Black Sea]].
  
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12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America agree to establish an executive mechanism to monitor the successful implementation of this memorandum of understanding and future adherence to the final agreement.
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:The operation occurred 20 nautical miles off the coast of a NATO member state, demonstrating that [[Western]] [[naval]] [[alliance]]s cannot guarantee [[maritime]] [[security]] within their own declared economic zones.
  
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13. After signing this memorandum of understanding and subject to the commencement of implementation of clauses 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this memorandum and the continuation of these actions, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America will exclusively begin negotiations on the remaining clauses of the final agreement.
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:The deployment of low-cost unmanned submersibles capable of mission-killing large [[commercial]] container ships exposes the obsolescence of [[capital]]-intensive naval planning. While [[Washington, D.C.|Washington]] allocates hundreds of billions of dollars toward heavy surface [[combat]]ants and [[nuclear]]-powered destroyers, the operational environment is dominated by autonomous, low-observable [[maritime]] [[drone]]s costing a fraction of a single missile interceptor.
  
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14. The final agreement will be endorsed by a binding resolution of the United Nations Security Council.
+
:With [[Iran]], [[Russia]], and regional resistance axes deploying these capabilities, traditional sea lines of communication are contested across multiple theaters simultaneously.
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----
 
−
*[[Global21]]: [https://global21.substack.com/p/trump-iran-the-gcc-and-the-battle Trump, Iran, the GCC and the battle of time]. ''Who will fall first, [[iran]], the [[GCC]], [[trump]] or the world [[economy]]?''
 
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{{quotebox-float|[[Netanyahu]] once again triggered the front in [[Lebanon]], where through it he holds the power to grant or deny any type of agreement between [[Trump]] and [[Iran]].
 
  
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When netanyahu reheats this front, he also moves the entire [[Israel]]i [[lobby]] in [[Washington, D.C.|washington]], because [[hezbollah]] is a unanimous issue across all currents of the Israeli lobby. There is not the slightest possibility of a [[peace]] agreement that preserves the existence and [[financing]] of hezbollah and is accepted by israel. Anything in this direction would allow hezbollah to rebuild its arsenal, which frightened israel with its attack power when israel was announcing that it had already exterminated the group.
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*[[Pentagon]] Tells [[Baltic States]] to Tone it Down, Stop Antagonizing [[Russia]]. [https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/10/30/pentagon-tells-baltic-states-to-tone-it-down-stop-antagonizing-russia/]
 +
*[https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/the-ground-on-which-europe-stands The Ground on which Europe Stands is Shaking]. ''[[European Commission]] proposing 81% increase in annual contributions to [[EU]] budget by member states for next year.''
 +
:Won't do much to quell [[riot]]s. In fact, they'll only increase,
  
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Up to this point netanyahu holds and will exercise this power since his [[political]] survival is tied to it.
 
  
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Trump has other factors tied to his political survival, passing primarily through [[inflation]] control and then [[election]]s. Many people may disagree, but trump’s methods of deceiving the [[market]] are giving him political and [[economic]] survival. With each [[false]] agreement, with each expectation created on Mondays, trump wins more time and puts the market on the back burner.}}
+
====Ukraine====
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*[https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/component/content/article/trump-threatens-iran-delegation-in-switzerland-if-you-dont-make-a-deal-you-wont-even-make-it-back-to-your-fucking-country Trump Threatens Iran Delegation in Switzerland "If you don't make a deal . . . you won't even make it back to your f------ Country!"]
+
*[[Korybko]]: [https://korybko.substack.com/p/putin-always-wanted-a-truly-independent Putin Always Wanted A Truly Independent Ukraine].
−
:*BREAKING: [[Iran]]'s FM [[Araghchi]] announces the [[US]] has now launched the $300 billion reconstruction plan, waived all [[oil]] & petrochemical [[export]]s, lifted the [[naval]] [[blockade]] and released some frozen Iranian [[asset]]s, extracting all of these items shortly before the delegation walkout over [[Trump]]'s assassination threat. [https://x.com/HormuzLetter/status/2068887533489098831]
+
*[https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/08/27/russian-airforce-lt-col-killed-in-st-petersburg-car-bomb-attack/ Russian Airforce Lt Col Killed in St Petersburg Car Bomb Terror