View source for Essay: Donald Trump, who is favored to win the 2024 presidential election, wants to hammer China with high tariffs

'''Question:''' Can imposing tariffs be good public policy for a country? 

Consider: 

*[https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/can-tariffs-be-good-thing Can tariffs be a good thing?], Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2024
*[https://prosperousamerica.org/economic-view-tariffs-done-right-can-rebuild-our-economy/ Tariffs done right can rebuild our economy], Coalition for a Prosperous America, 2024
*[https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/world-news/trump-reiterates-reciprocal-tariffs-threat-to-india-china-brazil-will-make-u-s-rich-again-101734514058766.html Trump Reiterates 'Reciprocal Tariffs' Threat To India, China, Brazil; ‘Will Make U.S. Rich Again…’], Hindustan Times, 2024
*[https://archive.is/WsfBB#selection-853.0-853.95 It’s different now: Tariffs can boost U.S. jobs, wages, and the economy, finance professor says], Fortune magazine, January 5, 2025
*[https://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/economics/item/28471-are-tariffs-good-for-america Are Tariffs Good for America?], by Steve Byas at ''[[The New American]]'', March 12, 2018.

The excitement is raging for [[tariff]]-loving Americans! See: [https://archive.is/X0K7W#selection-853.0-853.105 Trump tariffs could leave the US as the relative winner among global economies, Ivy League professor says], Fortune Magazine, December 29, 2024
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[[File:Donald Trump official presidential photo.jpg|thumb|250px|center|"Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary." - [[Donald Trump]]<ref>[https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2024/dec/16/the-most-beautiful-word-in-the-dictionary-donald-trumps-tariff-plan-podcast ‘The most beautiful word in the dictionary’: Donald Trump’s tariff plan – podcast]</ref>
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See: 
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*[https://www.reuters.com/world/china/why-chinas-economy-is-more-vulnerable-trump-tariffs-this-time-2024-11-06/ Why Trump tariffs pose a bigger threat to China’s economy this time], Reuters, 2024
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*[https://archive.is/GzmvK#selection-5745.0-5745.51 China Has Limited Firepower to Counter U.S. Tariffs], ''Wall Street Journal'', 2025]]
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Articles: 
[[File:Flag of the PRC.png|thumbnail|250px|right|Flag of China]] 
*[https://www.reuters.com/world/china/why-chinas-economy-is-more-vulnerable-trump-tariffs-this-time-2024-11-06/ Why Trump tariffs pose a bigger threat to China’s economy this time], Reuters, 2024
*[https://archive.is/GzmvK#selection-5745.0-5745.51 China Has Limited Firepower to Counter U.S. Tariffs], ''Wall Street Journal'', 2025

Please watch: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXT_CR5qYSk Goldman Sachs : Trump’s proposed 60% tariffs could knock 2% off China GDP], 2024

China's economy is too dependent on exports and countries around the world are raising tariffs against Chinese goods. Specifically, due to China having a significantly higher percentage of world exports than it did 25 years ago, China cannot export its way out of its economic problems because the world is not as able to absorb China's exports. 

*[https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/04/15/chinas-export-game-wont-work-this-time/?sh=2953510c68b9 China’s Export Game Won’t Work This Time], ''Forbes'', April 15, 2024

*[https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/china-exports-boom-papering-over-economys-structural-deficiencies-by-alicia-garcia-herrero-and-alessio-terzi-2024-05 China’s Economy Cannot Export Its Problems Away], Project Syndicate, 2024

Tariffs against China by various countries:

*[https://archive.ph/Psw3W#selection-1575.0-1575.71 Joe Biden and Donald Trump battle to prove who can be toughest on China], Financial Times, May 16, 2024

*[https://www.newsweek.com/china-economy-dealt-exports-blows-1910232 China's Economy Dealt Trade Blows], Newsweek, 2024

*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-qmTz2VWx8 EU to impose tariffs of up to 38% on Chinese EVs], video, Bloomberg News 2024

*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhvEOtR71Gs Why China is Falling Out with the Global South], video, TLDR News Global, 2024 (Some Global South countries are hitting China with tariffs).

== Donald Trump who is favored to win the 2024 presidential election wants to hammer China with high tariffs ==

[[File:Donald Trump official photo.jpg|thumbnail|225px|[[Donald Trump]] ]]

According to the political betting markets, [[Donald Trump]] is favored to win the 2024 Presidential election: [https://electionbettingodds.com/ Election Betting Odds website].

==== Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ====

*[https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/economists-weigh-pros-cons-trump-plan-60-tariff-china Economists weigh pros and cons of Trump plan for 60% tariff on China], Fox Business, 2024

*[https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/04/trump-floats-more-than-60percent-tariffs-on-chinese-imports.html Trump confirmed that he would impose tariffs of 60% or higher on Chinese goods were he to win a second term in office], CNBC, 2024

*[https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/20/trump-democrats-china-car-tariffs-00147848 Trump’s attacks on Chinese cars strike a chord — with both parties], Politico, 2024

*[https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-suggests-tariffs-against-nations-including-china-over-illegal-immigration-2024-06-06/ Trump suggests tariffs against nations including China over illegal immigration], 2024

*[https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-us-china-tariffs-needed-other-vehicles-products-2024-05-14/ Trump says US China tariffs needed on other vehicles, products], Reuters, May 14, 2024

*[https://archive.ph/Psw3W#selection-1575.0-1575.71 Joe Biden and Donald Trump battle to prove who can be toughest on China], May 16, 2024 Financial Times

*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Uafb8OMC88 The US Places Huge Tariffs on Chinese Imports || Peter Zeihan], 2024

In 2023, China's exports made up around 18.9% of its gross domestic product (GDP). 

According to World's Top Exports, the United States is one of China's top trading partners, accounting for 14.8% of China's total exports in 2023.

If USA starts decoupling from China, it could spur other countries to as well (Like a contagion). Plus, it would give other countries more bargaining power.

*[https://www.statista.com/statistics/257112/main-import-partners-for-china/#:~:text=Distribution%20of%20Chinese%20foreign%20trade%202022%2C%20by%20trade%20partner&text=In%202022%2C%20ASEAN%20was%20China's,to%2012%20percent%20in%202022. Distribution of Chinese foreign trade in 2022, by trade partner]

China's economy is already showing "economic cracks". 

'''Video:''' [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eem7d58gjno Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ]?

=== Trump floats replacing income tax with tariffs ===

*[https://nypost.com/2024/06/14/us-news/trump-floated-replacing-income-tax-with-tariffs-gop-rep-thomas-massie/ Trump floats replacing income tax with tariffs: GOP lawmaker], New York Post, 2024
*[https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/finance-and-economy/3046115/trump-talking-more-tariffs-than-ever-despite-headwinds/ Trump talking more tariffs than ever despite political and practical headwinds], Washington Examiner, 2024
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0dgI5AxhzY Hayman's Kyle Bass on Trump floating eliminating income tax: No way tariffs would match tax revenue], video

== Donald Trump tells Davos elites tariffs will make US a ‘manufacturing superpower’ ==

*[https://www.courthousenews.com/trump-tells-davos-elites-tariffs-will-make-us-a-manufacturing-superpower/ Donald Trump tells Davos elites tariffs will make US a ‘manufacturing superpower’], Courthouse News Service, January 23, 2025

== Decline of China ==

''See:'' [[Essay:Skepticism about China remaining a global power|Skepticism about China remaining a global power]]

=== Key parallels between China's decline and the Roman Empire's decline ===

See: [[Essay: China's decline and some Roman Empire decline parallels|China's decline and some Roman Empire decline parallels]]

=== China's economy is a house of cards heading for more and more economic decline. It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy ===
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[[File:House-of-cards.jpg|thumbnail|center|300px|In the coming years and decades, the slowing Chinese economy will show that it is a fragile house of cards.
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For more information, please see: [[Essay:Skepticism about China remaining a global power|Skepticism about China remaining a global power]] ]]

Please see: [[Essay: It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy|It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy]] 

==== The fragility of an economy run by communists that has the cult of personality surrounding Xi Jinping ====

''See also:'' [[Essay: Is there anything more fragile than an economy run by communists - especially one that has the cult of personality surrounding Xi Jinping?|Is there anything more fragile than an economy run by communists - especially one that has the cult of personality surrounding Xi Jinping?]]
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[[File:Broken-egg.jpg|thumbnail|center|400px|"The underpinnings of China’s growth seem fragile from historical and analytical perspectives. Even if no crises materialize, unfavorable [[Demography|demographics]], high debt levels, and an inefficient financial system will constrain China’s growth."<ref>[https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/China-bumpy-path-Eswar-Prasad China Stumbles, but it is Unlikely to Fall] by Eswar S. Prasad, December 2023</ref>
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Is there anything more fragile than an economy run by communists - especially one that has the [[cult of personality]] surrounding [[Xi Jinping]]? 
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'''Question:''' Are Chinese vases less fragile than Xi Jinping's inept leadership?]]
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Authoritarian regimes, like China, are strong (Various means to repress population and/or to limit other political options), but at the same time they are brittle. The former [[Soviet Union]] is an example of this principle.

In modern history, corrupt, one-party regimes are not known for their great longevity such as lasting over 100 years and China has one-party rule - namely the [[Chinese Communist Party]].<ref>[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/chinas-communist-party-is-at-a-fatal-age-for-one-party-regimes/11807138 China's Communist Party is at a fatal age for one-party regimes. How much longer can it survive?], Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 2020</ref> Mint News reported that "Chinese President [[Xi Jinping]] is expressing concerns about the potential collapse of the Communist Party of China (CCP) as millions worldwide are renouncing their affiliation with the party."<ref>[https://www.livemint.com/news/world/xi-jinping-raises-concerns-over-potential-collapse-of-chinese-communist-party-report-11689727293157.html Xi Jinping raises concerns over potential collapse of Chinese Communist Party: Report], Mint News, 2023</ref>

The Chinese Communist Party could lose power if China continues its downward path in terms of economic strength (See: [https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2023/09/29/2003806928 Scenario of a collapse of the CCP], ''Taipei Times'', 2023).

== Why Do They Call It "Free Trade"? ==
[[File:Phyllis and Gov. Reagan 1960s.jpg|right|thumb|300px|[[Phyllis Schlafly]] with Ronald Reagan.]]
[[Phyllis Schlafly]] wrote:
{{Cquote|Why do some people persist in mouthing the mantra "free trade" when foreign countries can and do engage in all sorts of dishonest tactics that interfere with trade, such as devaluation or other manipulation of the value of their money, confiscation (or nationalization) of U.S. property, refusing to live up to the contracts and agreements they sign, stealing our patents and copyrights, and counterfeiting our money? The Chinese government is engaging in massive piracy of American patented, copyrighted and trademarked materials. The U.S. intellectual property stolen by the Chinese includes a wide array of products including computer programs, pharmaceuticals, agricultural chemicals, musical recordings, videos, and automotive designs.

Collectively, these products are one of the greatest strengths of the U.S. economy and are the envy of the world. The United States exports many billions of dollars worth of these products each year. China simply finds it easier to illegally copy these products than to buy them from us or build competitive products, so China steals them on a gigantic scale. Some 30 Chinese factories daily turn out thousands of illegal compact discs and sell them all over the world, and illegally copied recordings, films and computer programs are widely available all over China.

Experts estimate that China's piracy in intellectual property amounts to $1 billion per year in lost U.S. exports. According to the Commerce Department�s rule-of-thumb, this means that 20,000 American jobs have been displaced by the $1 billion in lost U.S. exports."<ref>[https://eagleforum.org/column/1996/mar96/3-28-96.html Why Do They Call It "Free Trade"?], [[Phyllis Schlafly ]], 1996</ref>}}

== China's major economic crisis are signs of major deflationary pressures ==

According to Investopedia, "[[Deflation]] is not normally bad for an economy, except when it occurs in reaction to previous over-inflation."<ref>[https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/030915/why-deflation-bad-economy.asp Why Is Deflation Bad for the Economy?], Investopedia</ref> Unfortunately for China, it has economic bubbles that are bursting in relation to its real estate and stock markets which is causing much economic hardship to many Chinese. Both of these markets had values that were highly inflated relative to their actual economic value. The Empower website notes that deflation "can lead consumers to spend less now, in part because they expect prices to continue to fall; it can push businesses to lower wages or lay off employees to maintain profit levels; and it makes existing debt more expensive for many borrowers.<ref>[https://www.empower.com/the-currency/money/deflation#:~:text=It's%20bad%2C%20in%20part%2C%20because,more%20expensive%20for%20many%20borrowers. What is deflation?], Empower website</ref>

Presently, [[communism|communist]] China is facing multiple crisis with the three major crisis below being signs of growing deflationary pressures on their economy:

*[[Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)]]

*[[Chinese stock markets|Chinese stock markets crisis]] (Since 2021, China’s stock markets have lost about $7 trillion in value.<ref>[https://www.marketplace.org/2024/02/06/why-chinas-stock-market-struggling/ What’s going on with China’s stock market?], MarketPlace.org</ref>)

*[[Youth unemployment in China]]

== Essays about China ==
[[File:NewsX-Real-Chinese-Map.jpg|thumbnail|right|250px|Map of China]]

*[[Essay:Skepticism about China remaining a global power|Skepticism about China remaining a global power]]

*[[Essay: The rising rule of communist idiocracy in China|The rising rule of communist idiocracy in China]]

*[[Essay: It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy|It's time to be very bearish about China's long-term economy]]

*[[Essay: Communist China’s quixotic quest to innovate: A statist economy can’t make creativity greatly blossom|Communist China’s quixotic quest to innovate: A statist economy can’t make creativity greatly blossom]]

*[[Essay: The chance that that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the US is declining|The chance that that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the US is declining]]

*[[Essay: China has a labor productivity rate that is a WHOLE LOT LOWER than the labor productivity rate of the USA|China has a labor productivity rate that is a WHOLE LOT LOWER than the labor productivity rate of the USA]]

*[[Essay: China's promotion of the transexual agenda in the USA|China's promotion of the transexual agenda in the USA]]

*[[Essay: Is there anything more fragile than an economy run by communists - especially one that has the cult of personality surrounding Xi Jinping?|Is there anything more fragile than an economy run by communists - especially one that has the cult of personality surrounding Xi Jinping?]]

== United States ==

*[[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future|The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]]
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[[File:United States flag in the wind.jpg|thumb|center|600px|The United States will likely be the strongest country for the foreseeable future and this is due to the strengths of the USA and partly due to the weaknesses of China and Russia.
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Please see: [[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future|The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]] ]]
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== User:Conservative's essays ==

*[[User:Conservative's essays]]

== External links ==

*[https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/06/07/chinas-middle-class-is-disappearing/ China’s Middle Class Is Disappearing], Forbes, 2024
*[https://archive.ph/nunsI#selection-1329.0-1329.61 China’s Capital Outflow Surges to Highest Since 2016 in April], Bloomberg News, 2024
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RK2Tnswm5vA China's economic slump is nowhere near the bottom, says Oxford Economics], CNBC 
*[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-years-left-famed-geopolitical-160000503.html '10 years left': This famed geopolitical analyst says China will collapse in the next decade — here are 3 key numbers that could support his contrarian forecast], ''Yahoo News'', April 12, 2023

== References ==
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[[Category:Essays]]
[[Category: Donald Trump]]
[[Category: China]]