View source for Future of atheism in China

== Future of the Chinese Communist Party and state atheism in China ==

''See also:'' [[Collapse of atheism in the former Soviet Union]]

[[Image:Tank-1.jpg|right|thumb|Demonstrator in [[Tiananmen Square]] ]]

As noted above, Eric Kaufmann points out that the [[Global atheism statistics|percentage of the world's population that is atheist]] declined after the collapse of [[communism]] in the former [[Soviet Union]] and that was largely the cause although the [[growth of religious fundamentalism]] played a part as well.<ref>[https://youtu.be/ZrzTqTWBYZo?t=3575 Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century] (Eric Kaufman states this at around the 59 minute time of his speech at the Berkley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs at Georgetown University)</ref>

The CNBC Op-ed article ''Chinese Communist Party at age 100 confronts growing contradictions'' states about the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and [[Xi Jinping]]:
{{Cquote|As Jude Blanchette writes in Foreign Affairs: “His belief that the CCP must guide the economy and that [[Beijing]] should rein in the private sector will constrain the country’s future economic growth. His demand that party cadres adhere to ideological orthodoxy and demonstrate personal loyalty to him will undermine the governance system’s flexibility and competency. His emphasis on an expansive definition of national security will steer the country in a more inward and paranoid direction. His unleashing of ‘Wolf Warrior’ nationalism will produce a more aggressive and isolated China.”...

Yet recent history also shows that the CCP has demonstrated a ruthless resilience, brutal efficiency and ideological dexterity that has confounded its critics time-and-again and has allowed it to navigate Mao’s Cultural Revolution from 1966-1976 with its estimated death toll of up to 20 million, the [[Tiananmen Square Massacre]] of 1989, the Covid-19 crisis of 2020 that China spawned and then slayed, and so much more.

Xi’s world view was colored by the collapse of the Soviet Union and its Communist party in 1989 and 1990, a lesson that drives almost everything he does regarding his own Communist party, and also by his own struggle for power.

Back in 2018, he reflected on how it was possible for the Soviet party to collapse with its 20 million members, when with 2 million members it had defeated Hitler and the Third Reich.

“Why,” he asked. “Because its ideals and beliefs had evaporated.” He derided Gorbachev’s policy of “so-called glastnost,” which allowed criticism of the Soviet party line. The implication was clear: There would be no such openness under Xi.

Though he’s said less about the experience of his own rise to power in 2012, when the party was facing its biggest political scandal in a generation, he can only come away from it having learned how perilous infighting and corruption could be to holding the Communist Party together. His consolidation of power ultimately involved the disciplining of 1.5 million officials.

One can only understand his rush now to crush all possibility of internal dissent and seize all opportunity of international gain as the keen reading of his own political lifeline, measured against the emergence of the Biden administration with its efforts to reverse Western democratic decline and allied disarray.

Xi likely has only a window of about a decade before his country’s demographic decline, its structural economic downturn, and inevitable domestic upheavals threaten to reduce the historic possibility currently presented to him by his country’s technological advance, its geopolitical gains and his own current hold on power.<ref>[https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/26/op-ed-chinese-communist-party-at-age-100-confronts-growing-contradictions.html Op-ed: Chinese Communist Party at age 100 confronts growing contradictions] by Fredrick Kemp, CNBC website, SAT, JUN 26 20212:54 PM EDT</ref>}}

=== China's leaders are increasingly losing control over the information flow to its citizens ===

The world as a whole is becoming more religious (see: [[Desecularization]]) and Chinese citizens are increasingly coming in contact with the outside world. 

On December 23, 2012,  Eric Kaufmann wrote:
{{cquote|I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.

On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British.<ref>[https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/eric-kaufmann/london-a-rising-island-of-religion_b_2336699.html London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea] by Eric Kaufmann, ''Huffington Post'', 2012</ref>
<ref>[http://questionevolution.blogspot.com/2013/04/97-of-worlds-population-growth-is.html 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious], Tuesday, April 30, 2013</ref>}}
[[File:Hong Kong Christians at Gateway Camp.jpg|thumbnail|right|250px|[[Hong Kong]] Christians at Gateway Camp. In 2005, there were four times as many non-Western World Christians as there were [[Western World]] Christians.<ref>[https://www.wnd.com/?pageId=30077 Is Christianity taking over the planet?]</ref>
<br />
<br />
See also: [[Global Christianity]] ]]
Thousands of Chinese university students in the [[United States]] have become Christians.<ref>[https://evangelicalfocus.com/life-tech/1376/thousands-of-chinese-students-become-christians-in-us-universitiesThousands of Chinese students become Christians in US universities], Evangelical Focus website, 2016</ref>

''Bloomberg News'' in its article ''China’s Communists Face Daunting Future as Party Marks 100 Years'' points out: "But while China has near-absolute control on information, its citizens are also more connected to the outside world than ever before through virtual private networks that skirt the Great Firewall and international travel -- at least before Covid-19 hit. In times of crisis, like at the early stages of the pandemic, China’s censors allowed a rare deluge of online criticism."<ref>[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-06-28/china-communist-party-faces-daunting-future-as-it-marks-100-year-anniversary China’s Communists Face Daunting Future as Party Marks 100 Years], Bloomberg News, June 28, 2021, 6:06 AM EDT </ref> There are Christian ministries that have been very effective as far as [[internet evangelism]]. 
The Christian internet evangelism organization [[Global Media Outreach]] indicates that as of September 2019 over 1,900,000,000 "gospel visits" have occured via their websites. Global Media Outreach works with many Christians around the world (see: [[Global Christianity]]).

Although the future sustainability of China's [[Belt and Road Initiative]] is questionable given China's growing economic problems and the fact that foreign governments are racking up debts to China that are unlikely to be paid<ref>[https://www.voanews.com/a/east-asia-pacific_voa-news-china_report-raises-new-concerns-over-chinas-overseas-lending/6204378.html#:~:text=Launched%20in%202013%20with%20much,with%20Asia%2C%20Europe%20and%20Africa. Report Raises New Concerns over China’s Overseas Lending], Voice of America website, 2021</ref>, the initiative does increase foreigner's influence on China - including foreigner's religious beliefs.
=== Tiananmen Square massacre helped fuel an explosive growth of Christianity in China ===

''See also:'' [[East Asia and global desecularization]]

The [[Tiananmen Square massacre]] fueled a big rise in Chinese interest in Christianity.<ref>[http://examiningatheism.blogspot.com/2017/07/militant-atheists-caused-massive-and.html Militant atheists caused a massive and explosive growth of Christianity]</ref>

=== Typical lifespans of one-party governments and the Communist Part of China ===

[[Australia]]'s ABC News website indicates in its 2020 article ''China's Communist Party is at a fatal age for one-party regimes. How much longer can it survive?'':
{{Cquote|Pundits predicting the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party have been proven wrong decade after decade.

Communist China ...is one of the longest running single-party regimes in modern history.

But one-party governments have rarely survived longer than 70 years: the Communist Party of the Soviet Union ruled for 74 years before the bloc collapsed in 1991, and Mexico's Institutional Revolutionary Party retained power for 71 years until its defeat in the 2000 elections.

China's only contemporary competition is North Korea, which has been ruled by the Kim family dynasty for 71 years, since its founding in 1948.

Analysts say while there's no time limit on authoritarian governments, the CCP's one-party rule may not be sustainable in the long run despite its past resilience and distinctiveness from other regimes...

Anne-Marie Brady, a professor in Chinese politics at the University of Canterbury, says the big question is whether the CCP can continue to provide economic benefits for the Chinese population.

"Growth has [slowed] in China and they have the fastest ageing society in the world," she said.

"Chinese banks have bad debts, the actual unemployment figures are censored, [and] inflation is very high."

Dr Diamond believes China's "demographic implosion" — fuelled by China's now-abolished one-child policy — will be hard to reverse without significant immigration.

"But how can China do that on a large enough scale?" he said.

"I think its efforts to encourage higher population growth will fail because there are still serious quality of life problems in China.

"The rapid ageing of the population is going to challenge every aspect of the 'China dream'."<ref>[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/chinas-communist-party-is-at-a-fatal-age-for-one-party-regimes/11807138 China's Communist Party is at a fatal age for one-party regimes. How much longer can it survive?] by B Christina Zhou, Jan 4, 2020</ref>}}

According to the China Observer, which is operated by Kanzhongguo (Chinese: 看中國), a Falun Gong-affiliated Chinese language weekly newspaper: "After enduring three years of strict zero-COVID policies, China's economy has plunged into a persistent downturn, alarmingly extending its impact to the military: "In Communist China, the military is a key tool for threatening and suppressing the populace. Therefore, some scholars believe that the regime could collapse once the CCP is unable to afford the operational costs of the military and police. Recently, overseas Chinese media received leaks indicating a reduction in the income of Chinese military personnel. Mr. Hua, a retired officer who turned to business, mentioned that many of his comrades in the army have lost several allowances, with some not receiving any for up to six months".<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcfHGnzZB9c Dire Economy! China Can’t Afford Military and Police Wages, Starts Major Salary Cuts]</ref>