View source for Eric Kaufmann's accurate religious demography predictions and political predictions

[[File:Eric Kaufmann.jpg|right|thumbnail|401px|"I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious."- [[Eric Kaufmann]]<ref>[https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/eric-kaufmann/london-a-rising-island-of-religion_b_2336699.html London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea] by Eric Kaufmann, ''Huffington Post'', 2012</ref> ]]
[[Eric Kaufmann]] is an [[agnostic]] professor of politics at Birkbeck College, University of London and author.  His academic research specialty is how [[demography|demographic]] changes affect religion/irreligion and politics. He was a Fellow in the Religion in International Affairs Program, Belfer Center, Kennedy School, [[Harvard University]], 2008-9.  In 2008, he won the Richard Rose Prize of the Political Studies Association for a scholar under 40 years old.<ref>[https://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-kaufmann/ Eric Kaufmann - bio at'' Huffington Post'']</ref>

Among his various books on politics, religion, religious demography, in he wrote the book ''[[Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?]]: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century'' along with publishing various journal articles and articles in various publications.

He is also an editor of the journal ''Nations & [[Nationalism]]''. He has written on religion and [[demography]] for ''Newsweek International'', ''Foreign Policy'' and ''Prospect'' magazines.<ref>[http://www.socialtrendsinstitute.org/experts/all/eric-kaufmann Eric Kaufmann - Social Trends Institute]</ref>

== Prediction that religious fundamentalism would grow in the world - including the developed world ==

''See also:'' [[Desecularization]] and [[Growth of religious fundamentalism]] and [[Growth of evangelical Christianity]] and [[Growth of evangelical Christianity in irreligious regions]] 
[[File:Rutland Street Church, Christchurch, New Zealand 04.jpg|thumbnail|right|300px|Rutland Street Church, Christchurch, New Zealand.
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According to New Zealand census data, from 2013 to 2018, the number of "Evangelical, Born Again and Fundamentalist Christians" grew from 15,381 individuals to 38,127 individuals from 2013 to 2018.<ref>[https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Religion_in_New_Zealand&oldid=1134753814 Religion in New Zealand]</ref>]] 
On December 23, 2012, Eric Kaufmann wrote:
{{cquote|I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.

On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population. The demographic disparity between the religious, growing global South and the aging, secular global North will peak around 2050. In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British.
<ref>[http://questionevolution.blogspot.com/2013/04/97-of-worlds-population-growth-is.html 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious], Tuesday, April 30, 2013</ref>}}

At a conference Kaufmann said of religious demographic projections concerning the 21st century:
{{cquote|Part of the reason I think [[demography]] is very important, at least if we are going to speak about the future, is that it is the most predictable of the [[social sciences]].

...if you look at a population and its age structure now. You can tell a lot about the future.  ...So by looking at the relative age structure of different populations you can already say a lot about the future...

...Religious [[fundamentalism]] is going to be on the increase in the future and not just out there in the developing world..., but in the developed world as well.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7vCDeKPRSo Eric Kaufmann - Religion, Demography and Politics in the 21st Century]</ref>}}

=== Case study: The growth of religious fundamentalism in New Zealand and other developed countries which have subreplacement fertility and a rapidly aging populations ===

This demographic prediction about religious [[fundamentalism]] growing in the developed world has occurred (See: [[Growth of religious fundamentalism]] and [[Growth of evangelical Christianity]]). For example, in New Zealand, census data indicates that religious fundamentalism such as "Evangelical, Born Again and Fundamentalist", [[pentecostalism]], [[Islam]], [[Hinduism]], Sikism have grown.<ref>[https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Religion_in_New_Zealand&oldid=1134753814 Religion in New Zealand]</ref> 

According to New Zealand census data, from 2013 to 2018, the number of "Evangelical, Born Again and Fundamentalist Christians" grew from 15,381 individuals to 38,127 individuals.<ref>[https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Religion_in_New_Zealand&oldid=1134753814 Religion in New Zealand]</ref> In addition, according to New Zealand census data, from 2013 to 2018, the number of [[Pentecostalism|pentecostal Christians]] increased from 74,256 to 81,624.<ref>[https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Religion_in_New_Zealand&oldid=1134753814 Religion in New Zealand]</ref> See also: [[Growth of evangelical Christianity in New Zealand]]

== Eric Kaufmann's prediction about the culture war related to abortion in the United States ==

Eric Kaufmann wrote in his 2010 book ''Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?'' concerning the United States:
{{cquote|High evangelical fertility rates more than compensated for losses to liberal Protestant sects during the twentieth century. In recent decades, white secularism has surged, but Latino and Asian religious immigration has taken up the slack, keeping secularism at bay. Across denominations, the fertility advantage of religious fundamentalists of all colours is significant and growing. After 2020, their demographic weight will begin to tip the balance in the culture wars towards the conservative side, ramping up pressure on hot-button issues such as [[abortion]]. By the end of the century, three quarters of America may be pro-life. Their activism will leap over the borders of the 'Redeemer Nation' to evangelize the world. Already, the rise of the World Congress of Families has launched a global religious right, its arms stretching across the bloody lines of the War on Terror to embrace the entire Abrahamic family.<ref>[http://questionevolution.blogspot.com/2012/05/why-is-year-2020-key-year-for-christian.html Why is the year 2020 a key year for Christian creationists and pro-lifers?]</ref>}}

=== Case study related to the USA: After 2020, religious fundamentalists demographic weight will begin to tip the balance in the culture wars towards the conservative side, ramping up pressure on hot-button issues such as abortion ===

As noted above, Kaufmann wrote about religious fundamentalists: "After 2020, their demographic weight will begin to tip the balance in the culture wars towards the conservative side, ramping up pressure on hot-button issues such as abortion".<ref>[http://questionevolution.blogspot.com/2012/05/why-is-year-2020-key-year-for-christian.html Why is the year 2020 a key year for Christian creationists and pro-lifers?]</ref>

On June 24, 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned [[Roe vs. Wade]] in [[Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization]].
[[Image:Baby.jpg|center|thumb|300px|On June 24, 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned [[Roe vs. Wade]] in [[Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization]].]]
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== Material related to Eric Kaufmann's demographic predictions about the United States and Europe (Events that will occur before 2050) ==

*[[European desecularization in the 21st century]]

*[[United States, irreligion vs. religion and demographics]]

== See also ==

*[[Political betting markets]]

== Notes == 
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{{DEFAULTSORT:Kaufmann, Eric}} 

[[Category:Academics]]
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[[Category:Atheism]]
[[Category: Demography]]
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