Difference between revisions of "User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds"
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(Trump makes ground - now at highest ever probability) |
(Clinton makes ground) |
||
| Line 196: | Line 196: | ||
!21 May 2016 | !21 May 2016 | ||
!28 May 2016 | !28 May 2016 | ||
| + | !11 June 2016 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Donald Trump | | Donald Trump | ||
| Line 203: | Line 204: | ||
| 27.2% | | 27.2% | ||
| 30.5% | | 30.5% | ||
| + | | 26.0% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Ted Cruz | | Ted Cruz | ||
| 3.9% | | 3.9% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
|0.0% | |0.0% | ||
|0.0% | |0.0% | ||
| Line 214: | Line 217: | ||
| 1.8% | | 1.8% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
|0.0% | |0.0% | ||
|0.0% | |0.0% | ||
| Line 224: | Line 228: | ||
| '''27.2%''' | | '''27.2%''' | ||
| '''30.5%''' | | '''30.5%''' | ||
| + | | '''26.0%''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Hilary Clinton | | Hilary Clinton | ||
| Line 231: | Line 236: | ||
| 64.9% | | 64.9% | ||
| 63.2% | | 63.2% | ||
| + | | 68.3% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Bernie Sanders | | Bernie Sanders | ||
| Line 238: | Line 244: | ||
| 5.3% | | 5.3% | ||
|4.0% | |4.0% | ||
| + | |3.5% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Joe Biden | | Joe Biden | ||
| Line 245: | Line 252: | ||
| 2.6% | | 2.6% | ||
| 2.4% | | 2.4% | ||
| + | |2.2% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| '''Democrat Total''' | | '''Democrat Total''' | ||
| Line 252: | Line 260: | ||
| '''72.8%''' | | '''72.8%''' | ||
| '''69.5%''' | | '''69.5%''' | ||
| + | |'''74.0%''' | ||
|} | |} | ||
Revision as of 22:07, June 11, 2016
Probabilities from 5 March
| Candidate | 5 March 2016 | 7 March 2016 | 13 March 2016 | 16 March 2016 | 25 March 2016 | 27 March 2016 | 31 March 2016 | 5 April 2016 | 6 April 2016 | 7 April 2016 | 14 April 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 26.6% | 21.0% | 20.1% | 20.4% | 21.4% | 21.0% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 14.2% |
| Marco Rubio | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Cruz | 2.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.5% |
| John Kasich | 1.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
| Paul Ryan | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | ||||
| Mitt Romney | 0.8% | 0.6% | |||||||||
| Republican Total | 35.9% | 34.7% | 32.1% | 31.7% | 31.9% | 29.6% | 28.8% | 28.3% | 28.7% | 28.7% | 29.0% |
| Hilary Clinton | 57.6% | 56.0% | 57.0% | 60.3% | 61.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | 59.0% | 56.1% | 54.5% | 60.0% |
| Bernie Sanders | 3.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 8.5% |
| Joe Biden | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| Democrat Total | 62.0% | 63.2% | 65.8% | 68.2% | 68.1% | 70.4% | 71.2% | 71.7% | 71.3% | 71.3% | 71.0% |
| Michael Bloomberg | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Independent Total | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Probabilities from 28 April
| Candidate | 28 April 2016 | 7 May 2016 | 14 May 2016 | 21 May 2016 | 28 May 2016 | 11 June 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 21.0% | 27.2% | 25.1% | 27.2% | 30.5% | 26.0% |
| Ted Cruz | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Kasich | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Republican Total | 26.7% | 27.2% | 25.1% | 27.2% | 30.5% | 26.0% |
| Hilary Clinton | 68.8% | 69.0% | 67.9% | 64.9% | 63.2% | 68.3% |
| Bernie Sanders | 3.1% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% |
| Joe Biden | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% |
| Democrat Total | 73.3% | 72.8% | 74.9% | 72.8% | 69.5% | 74.0% |