Difference between revisions of "User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds"
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(Party odds similar to 20 August, but Pence and Ryan now seen as GOP possibilities) |
(GOP at its lowest probability of the campaign) |
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| Line 289: | Line 289: | ||
!20 August 2016 | !20 August 2016 | ||
!11 October 2016 | !11 October 2016 | ||
| + | !16 October 2016 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Donald Trump | | Donald Trump | ||
| Line 294: | Line 295: | ||
| 20.0% | | 20.0% | ||
| 17.8% | | 17.8% | ||
| + | | 17.1% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Mike Pence | | Mike Pence | ||
| Line 299: | Line 301: | ||
| | | | ||
| 1.8% | | 1.8% | ||
| + | | 1.2% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Paul Ryan | | Paul Ryan | ||
| Line 304: | Line 307: | ||
| | | | ||
| 1.4% | | 1.4% | ||
| + | | 0.6% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| '''Republican Total''' | | '''Republican Total''' | ||
| Line 309: | Line 313: | ||
| '''20.0%''' | | '''20.0%''' | ||
| '''21.0%''' | | '''21.0%''' | ||
| + | | '''18.9%''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Hilary Clinton | | Hilary Clinton | ||
| Line 314: | Line 319: | ||
| 80.0% | | 80.0% | ||
| 79.0% | | 79.0% | ||
| + | | 81.1% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| '''Democrat Total''' | | '''Democrat Total''' | ||
| Line 319: | Line 325: | ||
|'''80.0%''' | |'''80.0%''' | ||
| '''79.0%''' | | '''79.0%''' | ||
| + | | '''81.1%''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
|} | |} | ||
Latest revision as of 22:45, October 15, 2016
Probabilities from 5 March
| Candidate | 5 March 2016 | 7 March 2016 | 13 March 2016 | 16 March 2016 | 25 March 2016 | 27 March 2016 | 31 March 2016 | 5 April 2016 | 6 April 2016 | 7 April 2016 | 14 April 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 26.6% | 21.0% | 20.1% | 20.4% | 21.4% | 21.0% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 14.2% |
| Marco Rubio | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Cruz | 2.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.5% |
| John Kasich | 1.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
| Paul Ryan | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | ||||
| Mitt Romney | 0.8% | 0.6% | |||||||||
| Republican Total | 35.9% | 34.7% | 32.1% | 31.7% | 31.9% | 29.6% | 28.8% | 28.3% | 28.7% | 28.7% | 29.0% |
| Hilary Clinton | 57.6% | 56.0% | 57.0% | 60.3% | 61.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | 59.0% | 56.1% | 54.5% | 60.0% |
| Bernie Sanders | 3.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 8.5% |
| Joe Biden | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| Democrat Total | 62.0% | 63.2% | 65.8% | 68.2% | 68.1% | 70.4% | 71.2% | 71.7% | 71.3% | 71.3% | 71.0% |
| Michael Bloomberg | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Independent Total | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Probabilities from 28 April
| Candidate | 28 April 2016 | 7 May 2016 | 14 May 2016 | 21 May 2016 | 28 May 2016 | 11 June 2016 | 22 June 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 21.0% | 27.2% | 25.1% | 27.2% | 30.5% | 26.0% | 20.6% |
| Ted Cruz | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Kasich | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Ryan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% |
| Republican Total | 26.7% | 27.2% | 25.1% | 27.2% | 30.5% | 26.0% | 22.5% |
| Hilary Clinton | 68.8% | 69.0% | 67.9% | 64.9% | 63.2% | 68.3% | 72.5% |
| Bernie Sanders | 3.1% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% |
| Joe Biden | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| Democrat Total | 73.3% | 72.8% | 74.9% | 72.8% | 69.5% | 74.0% | 77.5% |
Probabilities from 1 August
| Candidate | 7 August 2016 | 20 August 2016 | 11 October 2016 | 16 October 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 25.4% | 20.0% | 17.8% | 17.1% |
| Mike Pence | 1.8% | 1.2% | ||
| Paul Ryan | 1.4% | 0.6% | ||
| Republican Total | 25.4% | 20.0% | 21.0% | 18.9% |
| Hilary Clinton | 74.6% | 80.0% | 79.0% | 81.1% |
| Democrat Total | 74.6% | 80.0% | 79.0% | 81.1% |