''See [[early voting]] for an analysis of voting in '''swing states'''.''
'''Swing states''', also called "battleground states," are [[state]]s in which neither the [[Republican]] nor [[Democratic]] candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support prior to a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the presidential election outcome in either direction. These states are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties. In 2024 the top swing states are [[Arizona]], [[Georgia]], and [[Wisconsin]], and the Republican can win nationally by capturing all three.
States that consistently express a preference for either the Democratic or Republican candidate are usually referred to as [[blue state]]s and [[red state]]s, respectively, while swing states are called "[[purple state]]s" in order to highlight their mixed demographic nature. Hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads by [[Super PAC]]s are spent almost entirely in swing states, where the presidential election outcome is expected to be decided.
A notable example of a swing state from 2000-2016 is [[Florida]], where the southern portion of the state is solidly Democratic (excluding areas with large Cuban populations which historically vote Republican), the central portion leans Democratic, while the northern (especially among the many military bases, but excluding the Tallahassee area) and southwestern portions are solidly Republican. The swing state phenomenon was most notable in the 2000 Presidential Election, where the [[mainstream media]] called the state for Al Gore (before polls had closed in the Florida panhandle; as that area is solidly Republican some believe this was done intentionally to suppress the vote), only to have to walk their initial predictions back, then the country had to wait weeks before the winner was declared (George W. Bush, by a mere 537 votes). Because of that, and the normally warm weather during the campaign season (where the weather is cold in many other swing states) Florida is a popular place for Presidential campaigning.
==Background==
{{see also|2020 Presidential election#Predictions and polls}}
In 2020, the six seven closest swing states are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. The additional states of Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire are considered potential swing states, and [[Trump]] has campaigned there in September 2020 also.
===Arizona===
Trump received 49% of the vote in [[Arizona]] in 2016, a plurality slightly higher than [[Hillary Clinton|Clinton]]'s total of 45%.<ref>[https://www.270towin.com/states/Arizona 270towin Arizona], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Polling as of late August 2020 shows a close race with [[Joe Biden]] slightly ahead.<ref name="RCP Arizona">[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_biden-6807.html RealClearPolitics Arizona], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> A Trafalgar poll conducted in October showed Trump two points ahead of Biden.<ref name="RCP Arizona" /><ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/az-pres-103020/ Trafalgar Arizona Poll], retrieved November 3, 2020</ref>As of November 8, 2020, results 97% reporting showed Biden with a 20,000 vote lead,<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-arizona.html NY Times 2020 Election Results Arizona], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref> though this was significantly smaller than Biden's lead on election night.
===Florida===
In the 2018 mid-terms, Florida voters replaced a Democratic Senator (Bill Nelson) with a Republican one (the term-limited Governor, [[Rick Scott]]), and maintained the Governor's office for the Republicans ([[Ron DeSantis]]).
[[Florida]] was crucial to Trump's victory in 2016, when he won by just 1% of the vote.<ref>[https://www.270towin.com/states/Florida 270towin Florida], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Polling as of early November 2020 showed Joe Biden leading in the state by approximately one point, within the margin of error, as Fox 35, Trafalgar, and Susquehanna showed small leads for Trump compared to Rasmussen showing a small lead for Biden.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html RealClearPolitics Florida], retrieved November 3, 2020</ref> Ultimately Trump won the state of Florida by more than three points; his increase from 2016 was largely due to an increase in support among Cuban-Americans, enabling him to receive 46% of the vote in [[Miami]]-Dade County and helping bring his overall vote total to 51%.<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-florida.html New York Times election results 2020 Florida], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref><ref>[https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/03/florida-election-results-president-analysis-trump-biden-impact/6085513002/ "Trump wins Florida: Gets boost by strong turnout by Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County"], Palm Beach Post, retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>
===Michigan===
No excuse is required for an absentee ballot in the state.<ref>[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-2020/ FiveThirtyEight Project: How to Vote 2020], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref>
Results proved to be highly controversial as Biden received 51% of the vote according to official results.<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-michigan.html New York Times Michigan Election Results 2020], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref> Investigations conducted by [[The Federalist]], among others, indicated that voter fraud had taken place in the Democratic Party stronghold of Wayne County.<ref>[https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/05/reports-of-election-fraud-keep-piling-up-in-michigan-whats-going-on/ Reports Of Election Fraud Keep Piling Up In Michigan. What’s Going On?], The Federalist, November 8, 2020</ref> American [[Mainstream Media]] outlets called the race for Biden despite these claims as Twitter censored President Trump's voicing of concerns.<ref>[https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325067488695099397 "People were screaming STOP THE COUNT & WE DEMAND TRANSPARENCY"], Donald Trump Twitter, retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>
===[[North Carolina]]===
Trafalgar's late October poll showed Trump two points ahead of Biden.<ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nc-pres-1031/ Trafalgar Poll October North Carolina], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>
Trump won the state of North Carolina by roughly one point.<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-north-carolina.html New York Times North Carolina Presidential election results], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>
===Pennsylvania===
[[Change Research]] has shown a close race in [[Pennsylvania]] since mid-July.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html RealClearPolitics Pennsylvania], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Center for Politics wrote an article about the political situation of the state, emphasizing the state's shift to Trump in 2016. The article referred to Trump's "new coalition," comprising largely of small towns and cities outside of [[Philadelphia]]'s metropolitan area, which had leaned Democrat in the past but where Republicans have been making significant gains. The article claimed that Biden may be more appealing to those Democrat/former Democrat voters than Hillary Clinton.<ref>[http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-pennsylvania/ Cook, Rhodes. "States of Play: Pennsylvania"] ''Sabato's Crystal Ball'', retrieved August 28, 2020</ref>
A [[Rasmussen Reports]] poll conducted August 25-27 of 2020 showed Trump and Biden at 46 points each in the state.<ref>[https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/pennsylvania_trump_46_biden_46 "Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 46%"] ''Rasmussen Reports'', retrieved September 7, 2020</ref> A poll conducted in early November by Trafalgar showed Trump and Biden with a point of each other in the state.<ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-1102/ Trafalgar Poll November], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>
===Other states===
Other states considered important battlegrounds in 2020 include [[Texas]] (leans R), [[Ohio]] (leans R), [[Minnesota]] (leans D), [[Nevada]] (leans D), [[Georgia]] (leans R), [[New Hampshire]] (leans D), and [[Iowa]](leans R).
==2016==