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Acceleration of 21st century desecularization (view source)
Revision as of 04:04, March 26, 2025
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*[http://kitmantv.blogspot.com/2011/05/eric-kaufmann-shall-religious-inherit.html Eric Kaufmann: Shall The Religious Inherit The Earth?]
*[http://kitmantv.blogspot.com/2011/05/eric-kaufmann-shall-religious-inherit.html Eric Kaufmann: Shall The Religious Inherit The Earth?]
*[http://kitmantv.blogspot.com/search/label/atheist%20demographics Eric Kaufmann's Atheist Demographic series]
*[http://kitmantv.blogspot.com/search/label/atheist%20demographics Eric Kaufmann's Atheist Demographic series]
*[http://fora.tv/2010/09/05/Eric_Kaufmann_Shall_the_Religious_Inherit_the_Earth Eric Kaufmann: Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?, Australian Broadcasting Corporation]</ref>]]
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwmgFZsgSo0 Eric Kaufmann: Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?, Australian Broadcasting Corporation]</ref>]]
[[Desecularization]] is the process by which [[religion]] reasserts its societal influence though religious values, institutions, sectors of society and symbols in reaction to previous and/or co-occurring [[secularization]] processes.<ref>''Religion and the State in Russia and China: Suppression, Survival and Revival'' by Christopher Marsh, 2011, page 11 (Christopher Marsh cites the definitions of desecularization given by Peter L. Berger and Vyacheslav Karpov)</ref>
[[Desecularization]] is the process by which [[religion]] reasserts its societal influence though religious values, institutions, sectors of society and symbols in reaction to previous and/or co-occurring [[secularization]] processes,<ref>''Religion and the State in Russia and China: Suppression, Survival and Revival'' by Christopher Marsh, 2011, page 11 (Christopher Marsh cites the definitions of desecularization given by Peter L. Berger and Vyacheslav Karpov)</ref> for example the collapse of the [[Soviet Union]] and restoration of the [[Russian Orthodox Church]] or the withdrawal of [[American]] troops from [[Afghanistan]] and restoration of the [[Taliban]].
The current [[Atheist Population|atheist population]] mostly resides in [[East Asia]] (particularly [[China]]) and in [[secular Europe]]/[[Australia]] primarily among whites.<ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/05/23/a-surprising-map-of-where-the-worlds-atheists-live/ A surprising map of where the world’s atheists live], By Max Fisher and Caitlin Dewey, ''Washington Post'', May 23, 2013</ref> See: [[Western atheism and race]]
On March 15, 2024, Frontier Partners International reported concerning [[global atheism]]: "Simultaneously, atheism, which once saw a peak around 1970 with 165 million adherents, is on the decline. The current growth trend for atheism is -0.12 percent, with their number falling from 147 million in 2020 to 146 million in 2024."<ref>[https://www.frontierpartners.org/global-christianity-surges Global Christianity surges beyond projections in 2024], LiCAS.news • Mar 15, 2024, Frontiers Patners Intertnational, 2024</ref> See also: [[Desecularization]] and [[Global atheism statistics]]
The [[theology|theologian]] and [[Harvard University]] academic Harvey Cox asserted that [[grassroots]] movements such as [[fundamentalism]] and the [[Charismatic movement]]/[[pentecostalism]] are significant religious forces that are resistant to secularization forces.<ref>[http://www.publishersweekly.com/978-0-8028-4691-4 Publisher's Weekly Review of'' The Desecularization of the World: Resurgent Religion and World Politics'' by Peter L. Berger]</ref><ref>[https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/harvey-cox/fire-from-heaven/ Kirkus Reviews- ''FIRE FROM HEAVEN: Pentecostalism, Spirituality, and the Reshaping of Religion in the Twenty-First Century'' by Harvey Cox]</ref> In her book ''The Battle for God'', Karen Armstrong wrote: "One of the most startling developments of the late 20th century has been the emergence within every major religious tradition of a militant piety known as 'fundamentalism'… this religious resurgence has taken many observers by surprise."<ref>Karen Armstrong, The Battle for God, p. 9</ref> Today, even the highly [[secular]]ized public and political sphere of [[France]] is showing a new and more open attitude towards religion.<ref>[https://edoc.unibas.ch/50856/3/20170119190142_5880ff06238b8.pdf How religious is the public sphere? – A critical stance on the debate about public religion and post-secularity], Draft Version, Jens Koehrsen (Köhrsen). Bielefeld Graduate School in History and Sociology, Germany. École des hautes études en sciences socials, France. Published in: Acta Sociologica 55 (3), S. 273-288.</ref>
The current [[Atheist Population|atheist population]] mostly resides in [[East Asia]] (particularly [[China]]) and in [[secular Europe]]/[[Australia]] primarily among whites.<ref>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/05/23/a-surprising-map-of-where-the-worlds-atheists-live/ A surprising map of where the world’s atheists live], By Max Fisher and Caitlin Dewey, ''Washington Post'', May 23, 2013</ref> See: [[Western atheism and race]]
[[China]] has the largest atheist population in the world (see: [[China and atheism]]). Due to the below replacement level of fertility among atheists/nonreligious (see: [[Atheism and fertility rates]]), [[China]] is facing a demographic crisis and a shrinking population (see: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTbILK0fxDY Demography — China's Reckoning]). In 2022, the historian [[Niall Ferguson]] indicated that [[China]]'s population is projected to drop by 50-75% by the end of the century.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2vqnpXWM0Y&t=601s Niall Ferguson on the projected drop of China's population in the 21st century]</ref>
The [[Soviet Union]], communist China and the [[decline of the secular left]] in the world, demonstrate that [[state atheism]] and/or [[atheist indoctrination]] through social institutions is vulnerable to disruption and that desecularization can occur rapidly (see also: [[Collapse of atheism in the former Soviet Union]] and [[Growth of Christianity in China]] and [[Decline of the secular left]]).
The [[Soviet Union]], communist China and the [[decline of the secular left]] in the world, demonstrate that [[state atheism]] and/or [[atheist indoctrination]] through social institutions is vulnerable to disruption and that desecularization can occur rapidly (see also: [[Collapse of atheism in the former Soviet Union]] and [[Growth of Christianity in China]] and [[Decline of the secular left]]).
Irreligious/secular countries are vulnerable to rapid desecularization through mass immigration of religious immigration or the disruption of atheistic indoctrination. For example, secular Europe is presently having a migrant crisis and these migrants come from religious countries (see: [[European migrant crisis]]). In [[Turkey]], which has history of a secular state, the higher fertility rate of religious/fundamentalist Muslims eventually caused the banning of the [[evolution|theory of evolution]] from secondary schools.<ref>[Turkey Coup: Undone by Demographics Turkey Coup: Undone by Demographics], The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection, 2016</ref><ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/23/world/europe/turkey-evolution-high-school-curriculum.html urkey Drops Evolution From Curriculum, Angering Secularists], New York Times, 2017</ref> See also: [[Atheist indoctrination]] and [[Evolutionary indoctrination]]
Current trends, which are covered below, suggests that the [[growth of global desecularization]] may accelerate sometime in the 21st century - particularly in the latter half of the 21st century.
Current trends, which are covered below, suggests that the [[growth of global desecularization]] may accelerate sometime in the 21st century - particularly in the latter half of the 21st century.
In 2011, [[Eric Kaufmann]] declared concerning the population of [[Secular Europe]]:
In 2011, [[Eric Kaufmann]] declared concerning the population of [[secular Europe]]:
{{Cquote|If we go to [[Europe]], if we take the population of Europe including Russia, it's expected to decline by 25,000,000 in the next 20 years. And then between 2030 to 2050 by another 55,000,000. So you see there is an acceleration of population decline because total fertility rates, that is the number of children of woman will bear in her lifetime have been below replacement for 30 or 40 years...
{{Cquote|If we go to [[Europe]], if we take the population of Europe including Russia, it's expected to decline by 25,000,000 in the next 20 years. And then between 2030 to 2050 by another 55,000,000. So you see there is an acceleration of population decline because total fertility rates, that is the number of children of woman will bear in her lifetime have been below replacement for 30 or 40 years...
As populations shrink, there are fewer mothers begetting fewer children and so forth so you get a compounding effect.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NtvDErEmBY Big Ideas Eric Kaufmann]</ref>}}
As populations shrink, there are fewer mothers begetting fewer children and so forth so you get a compounding effect.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NtvDErEmBY Big Ideas Eric Kaufmann]</ref>}}
See also: [[Atheism and fertility rates]]
See also: [[European desecularization in the 21st century]] and [[Atheism and fertility rates]]
Kaufmann wrote in his academic paper ''Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century''
{{Cquote|Today, values play a more important role in fertility behaviour, throwing the contrast between religious pro[[natalism]] and secular low-fertility individualism into relief. Over several generations, this process can lead to significant social and political changes. Early Christianity’s exponential rise during its gestation period from 30 to 300 A.D. has been traced to its superior demography (fertility, mortality and female sex ratio), which maintained a rate of growth similar to contemporary [[Mormonism]]: 40 percent per decade. For Christians, this led to a jump from 40 converts to 6 million inside three centuries. (Stark 1996) Christianity became the religion of an empire and a continent. In the United States, conservative sects increased their share of white [[Protestantism]] from roughly a third to two-thirds during the twentieth century – largely on the back of higher fertility. On the other hand, sects like the Shakers and Cathars, which permitted entry only through conversion, rapidly faded from the scene. Demographic religious revival is a medium and long-term phenomenon, but awareness of shifting population composition can lead to political soul-searching and instability well before the full impact of demographic change takes place. This is clear in ethnically-tense societies like [[Israel]], [[Northern Ireland]], [[Bosnia]], [[Lebanon]], Cote D’Ivoire or Assam.<ref>[http://www.sneps.net/RD/uploads/1-Shall%20the%20Religious%20Inherit%20the%20Earth.pdf ''Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century''] by [[Eric Kaufmann]], Belfer Center, Harvard University/Birkbeck College, University of London (PDF)</ref>}}
Dr. [[Steve Turley]] wrote:
{{Cquote|According to University of London scholar [[Eric Kaufmann]]’s detailed study on global demographic trends, we are in the early stages of nothing less than a demographic revolution. In Kaufmann’s words, "religious fundamentalists are on course to take over the world." There is a significant demographic deficit between secularists and conservative religionists. For example, in the U.S., while self-identified non-religionist women averaged only 1.5 children per couple in 2002, conservative evangelical women averaged 2.5 children, representing a 28 percent fertility edge. Kaufmann notes that this demographic deficit has dramatic effects over time. In a population evenly divided, these numbers indicate that conservative evangelicals would increase from 50 to 62.5 percent of the population in a single generation. In two generations, their number would increase to 73.5 percent, and over the course of 200 years, they would represent 99.4 percent. The Amish and Mormons provide contemporary illustrations of the compound effect of endogamous growth. The Amish double in population every twenty years, and projections have the Amish numbering over a million in the U.S. and Canada in just a few decades. Since 1830, Mormon growth has averaged 40 percent per decade, which means that by 2080, there may be as many as 267 million Mormons in the world, making them by 2100 anywhere from one to six percent of the world’s population.
In Europe, immigration is making the continent more religiously conservative, not less; in fact, London and Paris are some of the most religiously dense areas within their respective populations. In Britain, for example, Ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Jews constitute only 17 percent of the Jewish population but account for 75 percent of Jewish births. And in Israel, Haredi schoolchildren have gone from comprising a few percent to nearly a third of all Jewish pupils in a matter of five decades, and are poised to represent the majority of the Jewish population by 2050. Since 1970, charismatic Christians in Europe have expanded steadily at a rate of 4 percent per year, in step with Muslim growth. Currently, Laestadian Lutherans in Finland and Holland’s Orthodox Calvinists have a fertility advantage over their wider secular populations of 4:1 and 2:1 respectively.
In contrast, Kaufmann’s data projects that secularists, who consistently exemplify a low fertility rate of around 1.5 (significantly below the replacement level of 2.1), will begin a steady decline after 2030 to a mere 14 to 15 percent of the American population. Similar projections apply to Europe as well. Kaufmann thus appears to have identified what he calls "the soft underbelly of secularism," namely, demography. This is because secular liberalism entails its own “demographic contradiction,” the affirmation of the sovereign individual devoid of the restraints of classical moral structures necessitates the freedom not to reproduce. The link between sex and procreation having been broken, modernist reproduction translates into mere personal preference. It thus turns out that the radical individualism so celebrated and revered by contemporary secular propagandists is in fact the agent by which their ideology implodes.<ref>(source: Text below the YouTube video ''[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1O2bsh6oHnM Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth''] and the text was written by Dr. Steven Turley).</ref>}}
== Global desecularization ==
== Global desecularization ==
''See also:'' [[Global atheism]] and [[Global atheism statistics]]
''See also:'' [[Global atheism]] and [[Global atheism statistics]]
According to the ''[[Encyclopædia Britannica]]'', 2% of the world's population self-identifies as atheist and the average annual global change for [[atheism]] from 2000 to 2010 was −0.17%.<ref name="eb-2010">{{cite web|title=Religion: Year in Review 2010: Worldwide Adherents of All Religions|url=http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/1731588/Religion-Year-In-Review-2010/298437/Worldwide-Adherents-of-All-Religions|work=Encyclopædia Britannica Online|publisher=Encyclopædia Britannica Inc.|accessdate=2013-11-21}}</ref> There is excellent research from a number of sources indicating that the percentage of atheists is presently in decline (see: [[Global atheism statistics]]).
According to the ''[[Encyclopædia Britannica]]'', 2% of the world's population self-identifies as atheist and the average annual global change for [[atheism]] from 2000 to 2010 was −0.17%.<ref name="eb-2010">{{cite web|title=Religion: Year in Review 2010: Worldwide Adherents of All Religions|url=https://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/1731588/Religion-Year-In-Review-2010/298437/Worldwide-Adherents-of-All-Religions|work=Encyclopædia Britannica Online|publisher=Encyclopædia Britannica Inc.|accessdate=2013-11-21}}</ref> There is excellent research from a number of sources indicating that the percentage of atheists is presently in decline (see: [[Global atheism statistics]]).
On July 24, 2013, ''CNS News'' reported:
On July 24, 2013, ''CNS News'' reported:
{{cquote|Atheism is in decline worldwide, with the number of atheists falling from 4.5% of the world’s population in 1970 to 2.0% in 2010 and projected to drop to 1.8% by 2020, according to a new report by the Center for the Study of Global Christianity at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary in South Hamilton, Mass."<ref>[http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/global-study-atheists-decline-only-18-world-population-2020 Global Study: Atheists in Decline, Only 1.8% of World Population by 2020]</ref>}}
{{cquote|Atheism is in decline worldwide, with the number of atheists falling from 4.5% of the world’s population in 1970 to 2.0% in 2010 and projected to drop to 1.8% by 2020, according to a new report by the Center for the Study of Global Christianity at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary in South Hamilton, Mass."<ref>[https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/global-study-atheists-decline-only-18-world-population-2020 Global Study: Atheists in Decline, Only 1.8% of World Population by 2020]</ref>}}
[[File:Eric Kaufmann.jpg|right|thumbnail|400px|[[Eric Kaufmann]] ]]
On December 23, 2012, Professor [[Eric Kaufmann]] who teaches at Birbeck College, University of London wrote:
On December 23, 2012, Professor [[Eric Kaufmann]] who teaches at Birbeck College, University of London wrote:
{{cquote|I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.
{{cquote|I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.
On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British.
On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British.<ref>[https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/eric-kaufmann/london-a-rising-island-of-religion_b_2336699.html London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea] by Eric Kaufmann, ''Huffington Post'', 2012</ref>
<ref>[http://questionevolution.blogspot.com/2013/04/97-of-worlds-population-growth-is.html 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious], Tuesday, April 30, 2013</ref>}}
<ref>[http://questionevolution.blogspot.com/2013/04/97-of-worlds-population-growth-is.html 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious], Tuesday, April 30, 2013</ref>}}
As atheist populations rise in age, the fertility rates of atheistic countries could drop further. The Rand Corporation indicates, "Nearly all European nations are experiencing long-term downtrends in fertility, and consequently, ageing of their populations. These demographic trends could have potentially damaging consequences for European economies."<ref>[http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG206.html Low Fertility and Population Ageing], Rand Corporation</ref>
As atheist populations rise in age, the fertility rates of atheistic countries could drop further. The Rand Corporation indicates, "Nearly all European nations are experiencing long-term downtrends in fertility, and consequently, ageing of their populations. These demographic trends could have potentially damaging consequences for European economies."<ref>[http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG206.html Low Fertility and Population Ageing], Rand Corporation</ref>
=== Religious immigrants to Europe resistant to secularization ===
See: [[Religious immigrants to Europe resistant to secularization]]
=== Future of immigration to Europe uncertain ===
=== Future of immigration to Europe uncertain ===
If CSGC is correct, then not only is the global market share for atheism going downward, but now the actual number of atheists in the world is going down as well. Specifically, CSGC is projecting that from the midpoint of 2016 to the midpoint of 2017, the total number of atheists in the world is going to go from 138,101,000 individuals to 137,041,000 individuals. That would be a net loss of 60,000 atheists in the world during this period.<ref>
If CSGC is correct, then not only is the global market share for atheism going downward, but now the actual number of atheists in the world is going down as well. Specifically, CSGC is projecting that from the midpoint of 2016 to the midpoint of 2017, the total number of atheists in the world is going to go from 138,101,000 individuals to 137,041,000 individuals. That would be a net loss of 60,000 atheists in the world during this period.<ref>
*[http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/global-study-atheists-decline-only-18-world-population-2020 Global Study: Atheists in Decline, Only 1.8% of World Population by 2020]
*[https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/global-study-atheists-decline-only-18-world-population-2020 Global Study: Atheists in Decline, Only 1.8% of World Population by 2020]
*[http://www.justinlong.org/articles/StatusOfGlobalChristianity2016.pdf Status of Global Atheism/Christianity/other religions, 2016, in the Context of 1900–2050]
*[http://www.justinlong.org/articles/StatusOfGlobalChristianity2016.pdf Status of Global Atheism/Christianity/other religions, 2016, in the Context of 1900–2050]
*[http://www.internationalbulletin.org/issues/2015-01/2015-01-029-table.html Status of Global Atheism/Christianity/other religions, 2015, in the Context of 1900–2050]</ref>
*[http://www.internationalbulletin.org/issues/2015-01/2015-01-029-table.html Status of Global Atheism/Christianity/other religions, 2015, in the Context of 1900–2050]</ref>
== Decline of Asian atheism ==
== Decline of Asian atheism ==
''See also:'' [[Asian atheism]] and [[East Asia and global desecularization]] and [[Growth of Christianity in China]] and [[Asian Century]]
''See also:'' [[Asian atheism]] and [[East Asia and global desecularization]] and [[Growth of Christianity in China]] and [[Future of atheism in China]]
[[File:Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square in Beijing China.jpg|thumb|right|200px|In front of the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square in Beijing.]]
[[File:Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square in Beijing China.jpg|thumb|right|200px|In front of the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square in Beijing.]]
According to ''Slate'', "[[Protestantism|Protestant]] Christianity has been the fastest growing religion in China."<ref>[http://www.slate.com/bigideas/what-is-the-future-of-religion/essays-and-opinions/fenggang-yang-opinion When Will China Become the World’s Largest Christian Country?], Slate</ref> [[Evangelicalism|Evangelical Christianity]] is especially growing sharply in China.<ref>[http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2015/0111/In-China-a-church-state-showdown-of-biblical-proportions In China, a church-state showdown of biblical proportions]</ref>
=== Subreplacement level of births in China which has the largest atheist population in the world ===
As a group, atheists have a subreplacement level of births (See: [[Atheism and fertility rates]]).
Most atheists in the world are [[East Asia]]n and [[China]] has the largest atheist population in the world (See: [[Asian atheism]] and [[Atheism and China]]).
According to ''Forbes'' magazine, as far as the fertility rate of China: "...the Total Fertility Rate (births per woman) dropped in 2021 to just 1.15, far below the 2.1 required for a stable population."<ref>[https://www.forbes.com/sites/franklavin/2022/10/12/chinas-demographics-it-gets-worse/?sh=6102ba4331d1 China’s Demographics: It Gets Worse], Forbes magazine, Oct 12, 2022</ref> In 2022, the historian [[Niall Ferguson]] indicated that [[China]]'s population is projected to drop by 50-75% by the end of the century.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2vqnpXWM0Y&t=601s Niall Ferguson on the projected drop of China's population in the 21st century]</ref>
=== Growth of evangelical Christianity in China ===
''See also:'' [[Growth of Christianity in China]]
According to ''Slate'', "[[Protestantism|Protestant]] Christianity has been the fastest growing religion in China."<ref>[http://www.slate.com/bigideas/what-is-the-future-of-religion/essays-and-opinions/fenggang-yang-opinion When Will China Become the World’s Largest Christian Country?], Slate</ref> [[Evangelicalism|Evangelical Christianity]] is especially growing sharply in China.<ref>[https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2015/0111/In-China-a-church-state-showdown-of-biblical-proportions In China, a church-state showdown of biblical proportions]</ref>
On November 1, 2014, an article in ''The Economist'' entitled ''Cracks in the atheist edifice'' declared:
On November 1, 2014, an article in ''The Economist'' entitled ''Cracks in the atheist edifice'' declared:
{{cquote|Officials are untroubled by the clash between the city’s famously freewheeling capitalism and the [[Communism|Communist]] Party’s ideology, yet still see religion and its symbols as affronts to the party’s [[atheism]]...
{{cquote|Officials are untroubled by the clash between the city’s famously freewheeling capitalism and the [[Communism|Communist]] Party’s ideology, yet still see religion and its symbols as affronts to the party’s [[atheism]]...
Yang Fenggang of Purdue University, in Indiana, says the Christian church in China has grown by an average of 10% a year since 1980. He reckons that on current trends there will be 250m Christians by around 2030, making China’s Christian population the largest in the world. Mr. Yang says this speed of growth is similar to that seen in fourth-century Rome just before the conversion of [[Constantine]], which paved the way for Christianity to become the religion of his empire.<ref>[http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21629218-rapid-spread-christianity-forcing-official-rethink-religion-cracks ''Cracks in the atheist edifice''], ''The Economist'', November 1, 2014</ref>}}
Yang Fenggang of Purdue University, in Indiana, says the Christian church in China has grown by an average of 10% a year since 1980. He reckons that on current trends there will be 250m Christians by around 2030, making China’s Christian population the largest in the world. Mr. Yang says this speed of growth is similar to that seen in fourth-century Rome just before the conversion of [[Constantine]], which paved the way for Christianity to become the religion of his empire.<ref>[https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21629218-rapid-spread-christianity-forcing-official-rethink-religion-cracks ''Cracks in the atheist edifice''], ''The Economist'', November 1, 2014</ref>}}
To see the magnitude of the explosive growth of Christianity in China, examine [https://www.dw.com/en/in-xi-we-trust-is-china-cracking-down-on-christianity/a-42224752 this graph about the growth of Christianity in China] in a DW news story about Chinese Christianity (DW is a mainstream news outlet in Germany). There are now more Christians in China than Chinese who belong to the [[Communist Party of China]] (see also: [[East Asia and global desecularization]]).<ref>[https://www.dw.com/en/in-xi-we-trust-is-china-cracking-down-on-christianity/a-42224752 In Xi we trust - Is China cracking down on Christianity?], DW News</ref>
Justin Wood also wrote:
Justin Wood also wrote:
Justin Long, citing statistics from Operation World states:
Justin Long, citing statistics from Operation World states:
{{Cquote|From 146 million in 2010, evangelicals grow to 1.2 billion, or 24% of Asia’s 4.3 billion by 2100. Evangelicals are, in this model, predicted to slip from 3% per annum growth today to 1.5% per annum in 2100, due to the projected fall in population growth. This, too, seems a fairly realistic projection. While there are significant gains in the number of evangelicals in China, growth in other places in Asia is presently fairly flat.<ref>[http://justinlong.org/2016/04/when-will-the-world-be-over-half-evangelical/ When will the world be over half evangelical?] by Justin Long</ref>}}
{{Cquote|From 146 million in 2010, evangelicals grow to 1.2 billion, or 24% of Asia’s 4.3 billion by 2100. Evangelicals are, in this model, predicted to slip from 3% per annum growth today to 1.5% per annum in 2100, due to the projected fall in population growth. This, too, seems a fairly realistic projection. While there are significant gains in the number of evangelicals in China, growth in other places in Asia is presently fairly flat.<ref>[http://justinlong.org/2016/04/when-will-the-world-be-over-half-evangelical/ When will the world be over half evangelical?] by Justin Long</ref>}}
=== Skepticism about China remaining a global power ===
''See also:'' [[Atheism and leadership]]
China faces a number of serious intractable problems. A number of leading geopolitical analysts are pessimistic about [[China]]'s remaining a global power. [[Neocon]] globalist author [[Peter Zeihan]] said in 2022, "I do not worry about China at all... I don't think that there is going to be a China for much longer."<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKFsn8xwQSw Energy at the End of the World | Part 4 | Demographics | Peter Zeihan]</ref>
China has [[state atheism]] and the fall of the Chinese Communist Party due to economic and other societal problems would cause a large drop in the [[Global atheism|global atheist population]] (See: [[Future of atheism in China]] and [[China and atheism]] and [[Collapse of atheism in the former Soviet Union]]).
== Desecularization and Europe ==
== Desecularization and Europe ==
''See also:'' [[European desecularization in the 21st century]]
''See also:'' [[European desecularization in the 21st century]] and [[Religion and migration]]
Concerning the future of religion/secularism in Europe, Eric Kaufmann wrote:
Concerning the future of religion/secularism in Europe, Eric Kaufmann wrote:
[[File:Europe map.png|thumbnail|left|175px|Immigration to the European continent has a long history. In the latter part of the 20th century, immigration to Europe increased substantially - especially in Western Europe.
[[File:Europe map.png|thumbnail|left|175px|Immigration to the European continent has a long history. In the latter part of the 20th century, immigration to Europe increased substantially - especially in Western Europe.
At the same time, in 2014, the Pew Research Forum indicated that Europe will go from 11% of the world's population to 7% of the world's population by 2050.<ref name="PewProj">Kochhar, Rakesh (February 3, 2014). [http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/02/03/10-projections-for-the-global-population-in-2050/ "10 projections for the global population in 2050"]. FactTank/Pew Research Center website.</ref>
At the same time, in 2014, the Pew Research Forum indicated that Europe will go from 11% of the world's population to 7% of the world's population by 2050.<ref name="PewProj">Kochhar, Rakesh (February 3, 2014). [https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/02/03/10-projections-for-the-global-population-in-2050/ "10 projections for the global population in 2050"]. FactTank/Pew Research Center website.</ref>
See: [[Growth of global desecularization]] ]]
See: [[Growth of global desecularization]] ]]
In November 2017, the Catholic News Agency reported Vatican Secretary for Relations with the States Archbishop Paul Gallagher indicating that religion is no longer a forbidden subject in European politics.<ref>[https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/religious-freedom-not-secularism-key-to-europes-future-vatican-official-says-56141 Religious freedom, not secularism, key to Europe’s future, Vatican official says], Catholic News Agency, 2017</ref>
In November 2017, the Catholic News Agency reported Vatican Secretary for Relations with the States Archbishop Paul Gallagher indicating that religion is no longer a forbidden subject in European politics.<ref>[https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/religious-freedom-not-secularism-key-to-europes-future-vatican-official-says-56141 Religious freedom, not secularism, key to Europe’s future, Vatican official says], Catholic News Agency, 2017</ref>
According to Gallagher:
According to Gallagher: "Many diplomatic services throughout Europe and elsewhere are now running courses, literally accelerated courses to make up time on religion,” he said, explaining that political leaders are beginning to recognize that “the world is a very religious place."<ref>[https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/religious-freedom-not-secularism-key-to-europes-future-vatican-official-says-56141 Religious freedom, not secularism, key to Europe’s future, Vatican official says], Catholic News Agency, 2017</ref>
== United States, irreligion vs. religion, demographics and desecularization ==
== United States, irreligion vs. religion, demographics and desecularization ==
The historian Martin Van Crevel points out that sovereign states are losing power/influence due to technology democratizing access to information, welfare states increasingly failing, [[fourth-generation warfare]] being waged against countries and sovereign states increasingly losing their ability to maintain internal order.<ref>[http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/96spring/creveld.htm The Fate of the State] by MARTIN VAN CREVELD</ref><ref>[https://www.sonshi.com/martin-van-creveld-interview.html Martin van Creveld interview]</ref>
The historian Martin Van Crevel points out that sovereign states are losing power/influence due to technology democratizing access to information, welfare states increasingly failing, [[fourth-generation warfare]] being waged against countries and sovereign states increasingly losing their ability to maintain internal order.<ref>[http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/96spring/creveld.htm The Fate of the State] by MARTIN VAN CREVELD</ref><ref>[https://www.sonshi.com/martin-van-creveld-interview.html Martin van Creveld interview]</ref>
=== Aging populations in the developed world ===
''See also:'' [[Global atheism and aging populations]]
The article ''Developed countries may become more religious in 20 years'' indicates:
{{Cquote|Researchers from HSE University and RANEPA found that in high-income countries, age, rather than the cohort effect, has more impact on religiosity. They predict that this may have an impact on societal structure in the future. The study was published in Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion.
It has long been observed that older people tend to be more religious than younger people. However, it is still disputable whether this fact should be attributed to people generally becoming more religious with age per se (age effect), or to the process of secularization, wherein earlier cohorts (to which the now older people belong) used to be more religious than those that appeared later, i.e. younger cohorts (cohort effect). HSE University scholars decided to analyze this issue using data from six waves of the World Values Survey (2016) in high-income OECD countries. A total of 16 countries were studied, including Australia, the USA, Canada, Great Britain, Israel, New Zealand, Japan, Germany, as well as other European countries.
The researchers used logistic models and multiple linear regression to determine that the age effect has a higher impact on religiosity than the cohort effect. Older people are more inclined to believe in God, attend church, and believe it is important to instill religion in children.. The cohort effect impacts other factors analyzed by the scholars, such as church attendance and a belief in religion's importance in life, but the age effect still strongly prevails over the cohort effect...
The transition from religious to secular values may slow by 2040 in high-income OECD countries and, probably, there will be a resurgence of religiosity, the symptoms of which can be observed in Japan. On the other hand, widely divergent socio-cultural settings in different countries have an impact on religious behavior and attitude, and this must be taken into account in further research.<ref>[https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-09/nruh-dcm092519.php ''Developed countries may become more religious in 20 years''], Eureka Alert</ref>}}
(See also: [[European desecularization in the 21st century]] and [[United States, irreligion vs. religion and demographics]] and [[American atheism]] and [[British atheism]] and [[Irreligion in Australia]] and [[Postsecularism and New Zealand in the 21st century]] and [[Canada and irreligion]])
=== Atheist indoctrination facing future challenges ===
=== Atheist indoctrination facing future challenges ===
Homeschooling is growing worldwide.<ref>[http://learninfreedom.org/homeschool_growth.html Homeschooling is growing worldwide]</ref>
Homeschooling is growing worldwide.<ref>[http://learninfreedom.org/homeschool_growth.html Homeschooling is growing worldwide]</ref>
Nearly 7% of American college-educated parents homeschool their children.<ref>http://www.sagus.us/blog/blog_details.asp?ID=18&p=7&s=7&s2=7</ref> In the [[United States]], an estimated one to two million students are homeschooled, or nearly one out of every 30 students.<ref name="USA Today">http://www.usatoday.com/news/education/2009-01-04-homeschooling_N.htm</ref>
Nearly 7% of American college-educated parents homeschool their children.<ref>http://www.sagus.us/blog/blog_details.asp?ID=18&p=7&s=7&s2=7</ref> In the [[United States]], an estimated one to two million students are homeschooled, or nearly one out of every 30 students.<ref name="USA Today">https://www.usatoday.com/news/education/2009-01-04-homeschooling_N.htm</ref>
In 2011, it was reported that homeschooling has grown by almost 75% in the last 8 years in the United States.<ref>http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/02/09/educating-children-evolution-home-schooling</ref> and in a recent survey "the average homeschooled student scored at the 88th percentile" in the core subjects of reading, language and math.<ref>http://www.hslda.org/docs/news/washingtontimes/200908100.asp</ref> The most successful [[mathematician]] in contests in history, Reid Barton, was [[homeschooled]].<ref>http://www.amstat.org/PUBLICATIONS/amsn/index.cfm?fuseaction=highlights0812001</ref>
In 2011, it was reported that homeschooling has grown by almost 75% in the last 8 years in the United States.<ref>https://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/02/09/educating-children-evolution-home-schooling</ref> and in a recent survey "the average homeschooled student scored at the 88th percentile" in the core subjects of reading, language and math.<ref>http://www.hslda.org/docs/news/washingtontimes/200908100.asp</ref> The most successful [[mathematician]] in contests in history, Reid Barton, was [[homeschooled]].<ref>http://www.amstat.org/PUBLICATIONS/amsn/index.cfm?fuseaction=highlights0812001</ref>
==== Aging populations under financial pressure and lower per pupil cost of private schooling ====
==== Aging populations under financial pressure and lower per pupil cost of private schooling ====
Private schooling per student cost less than public schooling.<ref>[http://questionevolution.blogspot.com/2012/08/anti-evolution-religious-private.html Anti-evolution religious private schooling and homeschooling will see big growth worldwide]</ref>
Private schooling per student cost less than public schooling.<ref>[http://questionevolution.blogspot.com/2012/08/anti-evolution-religious-private.html Anti-evolution religious private schooling and homeschooling will see big growth worldwide]</ref>
According to a [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bx4pN-aiofw news program] by [[John Stossel]], Belgium has a school system which funds students to attend primary and secondary schools and they can use those funds to attend any school or their choice whether it be a religious private school, a non-religious private school or a public school.
According to a [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bx4pN-aiofw news program] by [[John Stossel]], Belgium has a school system which funds students to attend primary and secondary schools and they can use those funds to attend any school or their choice whether it be a religious private school, a non-religious private school or a public school.
American government run public schools are increasingly facing budget cuts and there is growing criticism of public schools. Vouchers for private schools (including religious schools) and charter schools are increasingly being discussed and legislators are introducing and passing school choice bills.<ref>
American government run public schools are increasingly facing budget cuts and there is growing criticism of public schools. Vouchers for private schools (including religious schools) and charter schools are increasingly being discussed and legislators are introducing and passing school choice bills.<ref>
*[http://bangordailynews.com/2011/10/28/education/school-budget-cuts-forcing-more-districts-to-four-day-weeks/?ref=latest School budget cuts forcing more districts to four-day weeks]
*[http://bangordailynews.com/2011/10/28/education/school-budget-cuts-forcing-more-districts-to-four-day-weeks/?ref=latest School budget cuts forcing more districts to four-day weeks]
*[http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/06/27/supremecourt/main513615.shtml Supreme Court OKs School Vouchers]
*[https://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/06/27/supremecourt/main513615.shtml Supreme Court OKs School Vouchers]
*[http://www.edchoice.org/Research/Our-Studies---Reports.aspx School choice - studies and reports]
*[http://www.edchoice.org/Research/Our-Studies---Reports.aspx School choice - studies and reports]
*[http://www.cato.org/pubs/briefs/bp-025.html What Would A School Voucher Buy? The Real Cost Of Private Schools]
*[http://www.cato.org/pubs/briefs/bp-025.html What Would A School Voucher Buy? The Real Cost Of Private Schools]
There appears to be a higher education bubble that will burst.<ref>
There appears to be a higher education bubble that will burst.<ref>
*[http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2011/04/higher_education Higher education bublle]***[http://www.forbes.com/sites/ccap/2011/04/05/the-higher-education-bubble/ Forbes - Higher education bubble]
*[https://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2011/04/higher_education Higher education bublle]***[https://www.forbes.com/sites/ccap/2011/04/05/the-higher-education-bubble/ Forbes - Higher education bubble]
*[http://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/the-college-solution/2011/05/03/higher-education-bubble-will-burst Higher education bubble will burst - U.S. News and World Report]
*[https://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/the-college-solution/2011/05/03/higher-education-bubble-will-burst Higher education bubble will burst - U.S. News and World Report]
</ref> The'' [[Wall Street Journal]]'' reported in 2013 that the percentage of Americans going to college has been decreasing for 3 years in the USA.<ref>[http://questionevolution.blogspot.com/2013/04/college-enrollment-shows-signs-of.html College enrollment shows signs of slowing which means less post high school evolutionary indoctrination. Also, the ever shrinking role of tenured evolutionist professors and evolutionary biologists]</ref>
</ref> The'' [[Wall Street Journal]]'' reported in 2013 that the percentage of Americans going to college has been decreasing for 3 years in the USA.<ref>[http://questionevolution.blogspot.com/2013/04/college-enrollment-shows-signs-of.html College enrollment shows signs of slowing which means less post high school evolutionary indoctrination. Also, the ever shrinking role of tenured evolutionist professors and evolutionary biologists]</ref>
[[File:Edward Tabash 2013.jpg|thumbnail|left|190px|[[Eddie Tabash]]
[[File:Edward Tabash 2013.jpg|thumbnail|left|190px|[[Eddie Tabash]]
<small>(photo obtained from [http://www.flickr.com/photos/reuvenim/4426093513/ Wikimedia Commons], see [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en license agreement])</small>]]
<small>(photo obtained from [https://www.flickr.com/photos/reuvenim/4426093513/ Wikimedia Commons], see [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en license agreement])</small>]]
The American atheist activist [[Eddie Tabash]] said at the 2010 Michigan Atheists State Convention:
The American atheist activist [[Eddie Tabash]] said at the 2010 Michigan Atheists State Convention:
{{Cquote|In every generation there has been a promising beginning of a true vanguard movement that will finally achieve widespread public acceptance for nonbelief. Yet, in each generation there has been an ultimately disappointing failure to actually register the [[Naturalism (philosophy)|naturalistic alternative]] to supernatural claims in the public consciousness...
{{Cquote|In every generation there has been a promising beginning of a true vanguard movement that will finally achieve widespread public acceptance for nonbelief. Yet, in each generation there has been an ultimately disappointing failure to actually register the [[Naturalism (philosophy)|naturalistic alternative]] to supernatural claims in the public consciousness...
In response, ''Evolution News and Views'' wrote:
In response, ''Evolution News and Views'' wrote:
{{cquote|A crisis looms, in Myers's view, because he looks around himself and sees a not very promising basis for a mass movement. He's right. There is indeed a quality of geeky isolation from reality, common sense, and the fullness of life that I see as a motif in atheist and Darwin activism alike.<ref>[http://www.evolutionnews.org/2013/04/in_seattle_pz_m070861.html in Seattle, PZ Myers Reflects Candidly on His Constituency]</ref>}}
{{cquote|A crisis looms, in Myers's view, because he looks around himself and sees a not very promising basis for a mass movement. He's right. There is indeed a quality of geeky isolation from reality, common sense, and the fullness of life that I see as a motif in atheist and Darwin activism alike.<ref>[http://www.evolutionnews.org/2013/04/in_seattle_pz_m070861.html in Seattle, PZ Myers Reflects Candidly on His Constituency]</ref>}}
== Postsecularism ==
''See also:'' [[Postsecularism]]
Jens Köhrsen, a professor for religion and economics at the Centre for Religion, Economy and Politics (ZRWP),<ref>[https://religionswissenschaft.unibas.ch/de/personen/jens-koehrsen/ Prof. Dr. Jens Köhrsen], University website faculty page</ref> wrote:
{{Cquote|[ [[Jürgen Habermas]] ] ...argues that a new age, the age of [[Postsecularism|post-secularity]], has begun. Previously vastly secularized societies, like the highly developed countries of Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, would experience a new awareness of religion and attribute a new public role to religion. From now on, religion would constitute a relevant dialogue partner in the public debates of these societies (Habermas, 2008). Moreover, Habermas presents a normative argument about public religion: he recommends that post-secular societies should facilitate religious contributions to the public sphere. Religious reasoning could contribute to public debates about the ethical values of contemporaneous and future societies. Habermas believes that modern societies might find some answers to the moral questions of our time by listening to religion in public debates (Habermas, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2008). A similar position to that of Habermas is proposed by Leclerc (2001) and French sociologist Willaime (2004a, 2004b, 2005[1995]: 76-78, 2008). Willaime observes that even the highly secularized public and political sphere of France is exhibiting a new, more open attitude towards religion. The hypersecularity of France would stimulate a restructuration process of religion. According to Willaime, religion can form an important resource for public debates and be engaged in the identity construction process of individuals and collectives.<ref>[https://edoc.unibas.ch/50856/3/20170119190142_5880ff06238b8.pdf How religious is the public sphere? – A critical stance on the debate about public religion and post-secularity], Draft Version, Jens Koehrsen (Köhrsen). Bielefeld Graduate School in History and Sociology, Germany. École des hautes études en sciences socials, France. Published in: Acta Sociologica 55 (3), S. 273-288.</ref>}}
== Religion and its projected increase in the 22nd century ==
''See also:'' [[Religion and its projected increase in the 22nd century]]
In 2012, the [[William Edwards Deming|W. Edwards Deming Institute]] published a report by the World Future Society which indicated:
{{Cquote|In 2100, however, the world will likely be only 9% [[Nones|unaffiliated]] — more religious than in 2012. The peak of the unaffiliated was in 1970 at around 20%, largely due to the influence of European [[communism]]. Since communism’s collapse, religion has been experiencing resurgence that will likely continue beyond 2100. All the world’s religions are poised to have enormous numeric growth (with the exceptions of tribal religions and Chinese folk religion), as well as geographic spread with the continuation of migration trends. Adherents of the world’s religions—perhaps particularly Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists—will continue to settle in the formerly Christian and ever-expanding cities of Europe and North America, causing increases of religious pluralism in these areas. Christians and Muslims together will encompass two-thirds of the global population—more than 7 billion individuals. In 2100, the majority of the world’s 11.6 billion residents will be adherents of religious traditions.<ref>[http://denninginstitute.com/pjd/PUBS/futurist-sep12.pdf The 22nd Century at First Light: Envisioning Life in the Year 2100: A special report by members and friends of the World Future Society], Religious Belief in 2100 by Gina A. Bellofatto</ref>}}
== See also ==
== See also ==
*[[Historical examples of the exponential growth of Christianity]]
*[[Militant atheism vs. Christianity, Islam and right-wing ideology]]
*[[Militant atheism vs. Christianity, Islam and right-wing ideology]]
Essays:
*[[Essay: Secular leftism, future shock and the acceleration of 21st desecularization|Secular leftism, future shock and the acceleration of 21st desecularization]]
*[[Essay: Militant atheists cannot stop this runaway train|Militant atheists cannot stop this runaway train]]
*[[Essay: The slow implosion of atheism is accelerating|The slow implosion of atheism is accelerating]]
== External links ==
== External links ==