Block, Siteadmin, SkipCaptcha, Upload, Automoderated users, delete, edit, move, nsTeam2RO, nsTeam2RW, nsTeam2_talkRO, nsTeam2_talkRW, protect, rollback, Administrators, template
291,999
edits
Changes
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
Line 365:
Line 365: + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
→Here is the answer to your question
Garry Kasparov, who has Jewish ancestry, said one of the differences between men and AI is that men are better able to ask relevant questions. See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqmI3rBjv0c&list=LL Chess Grandmaster Reveals Insight On Strategy, Capitalism & Russia - Garry Kasparov]. [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 23:04, August 13, 2025 (EDT)
Garry Kasparov, who has Jewish ancestry, said one of the differences between men and AI is that men are better able to ask relevant questions. See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqmI3rBjv0c&list=LL Chess Grandmaster Reveals Insight On Strategy, Capitalism & Russia - Garry Kasparov]. [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 23:04, August 13, 2025 (EDT)
: You welcome. In general, obviously, AI current flaw is that its primary 'source' is Wikipedia. 'nuff said. We at conservapedia are more attuned to it [[User:LaMarina|LaMarina]] ([[User talk:LaMarina|talk]]) 23:30, August 13, 2025 (EDT)
: You welcome. In general, obviously, AI current flaw is that its primary 'source' is Wikipedia. 'nuff said. We at conservapedia are more attuned to it [[User:LaMarina|LaMarina]] ([[User talk:LaMarina|talk]]) 23:30, August 13, 2025 (EDT)
::[https://www.facebook.com/GKKasparov/posts/my-new-article-isnt-only-a-condemnation-of-trump-and-trumpism-or-just-an-endorse/1117927149701879/ Garry Kasparov, My new article isn’t only a condemnation of Trump and Trumpism, or just an endorsement of Harris, but a call to action to defend American democracy], November 2, 2024. No wonder [[User:Conservative]] is such a big fan. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|''Zelensky Must Go!'']]</sup> 23:38, August 13, 2025 (EDT)
== Here is the answer to your question ==
Here is what the best prediction market for geopolitics Metaculus.com says:
*[https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=when%20will%20the%20war%20in%20iran%20end&order_by=-rank When will the war in Iran end?]
Putting it all together: Metaculus’ implied timeline
Based on the questions you pasted, the forecasting community is signaling:
🟥 War ends in early 2026 → Very unlikely
(12.5% ceasefire probability)
🟧 War ends in late 2026 → Possible but not favored
(Conflict intensity + US posture suggests longer)
🟨 War ends in 2027 → Most likely window
(Regime stability forecasts + nuclear deal timeline)
🟩 War ends in 2028 → Also plausible
(If negotiations drag)
🟦 War continues into 2029 → Low probability
(Nuclear deal forecast implies resolution before then) [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 18:30, March 19, 2026 (EDT)
::Can I ask, how often has this particular site been proven right before on geopolitics?[[User:LaMarina|LaMarina]] ([[User talk:LaMarina|talk]]) 18:54, March 19, 2026 (EDT)
:::In general, prediction markets have better results than polls. But I will quickly research it and get you the information you requested.
:::Here is the information you requested:
:::[https://copilot.microsoft.com/conversations/join/XGj1mWM9D1LECcvnTHxhr How reliable are Metaculus.com forecasts? What is its track record?] - '''Copilot''' ('''Important''': Click join the conversation)
:::"Overall Accuracy:
:::Metaculus’s own retrospective analyses show that both:
:::Community Predictions (the median of all forecasters), and
:::Metaculus Predictions (performance‑weighted and extremized)
:::robustly outperform naïve baselines such as constant-probability or unweighted averages.
:::Claims that Metaculus performs “near chance” rely on cherry‑picking a small subset of questions; across the full dataset, the average Brier score (~0.207) is significantly better than random guessing."
:::[https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA_ed5bb3dc-7ed9-4de6-b826-267634f10d13 How reliable are Metaculus.com forecasts? What is its track record?], '''Grok'''
:::[https://www.perplexity.ai/search/how-reliable-are-metaculus-com-4CydYiLrTHiBOS6Dk9yKwg How reliable are Metaculus.com forecasts? What is its track record?], '''Perplexity''' [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 19:55, March 19, 2026 (EDT)
::::But I will say this:
::::[https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA_f61404bd-762b-448e-8c3d-a98c080be978 What is the track record of modern Israel ending wars quick?], '''Grok'''
::::[https://copilot.microsoft.com/conversations/join/X9KSHV7crTuSbVhR5FVSJ What is the track record of modern Israel ending wars quick?], '''CoPilot''' ('''Important''': Click join the conversation) [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 20:27, March 19, 2026 (EDT)
*
Conservatives. I saw it. My reply on main page was that I asked Grok on Metaculus specifically on Israel related geopolitics and the answer was that its record has been partially correct.[[User:LaMarina|LaMarina]] ([[User talk:LaMarina|talk]]) 01:25, March 20, 2026 (EDT)
:Ok. Can you send me your email? Mine is conservativeconservapedia AT gmail DOt com [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 01:29, March 20, 2026 (EDT)
* Just did [[User:LaMarina|LaMarina]] ([[User talk:LaMarina|talk]]) 01:37, March 20, 2026 (EDT)
::LaMarina: This psychotic troll is an avowed [[antisemite]]. Be very careful in communicating with him. Don't trust him. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.]]</sup> 02:03, March 20, 2026 (EDT)
::[[User:Conservative]] spammed [[neo-Nazi]] and [[antisemite]] [https://www.wehuntedthemammoth.com/2019/04/18/can-you-find-all-the-nazi-buzzwords-in-vox-days-recent-denunciation-of-jewish-humor/ Vox Day into at least 1,000 mainspace Conservapedia articles] as if Day is some sort of "expert" on "Christianity". [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.]]</sup> 14:32, March 26, 2026 (EDT)
:::Wow. T. Beale is known as an horrific racist.[[User:LaMarina|LaMarina]] ([[User talk:LaMarina|talk]]) 12:22, March 27, 2026 (EDT)
::::[https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=Vox_Day&diff=2189817&oldid=2189812 I've complained to the owner for years. He doesn't care.] [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.]]</sup> 12:32, March 27, 2026 (EDT)
*Mr. RobS, Conservative explains Beale wasn't an antisemite at the time in 2022.[[User:LaMarina|LaMarina]] ([[User talk:LaMarina|talk]]) 22:24, March 28, 2026 (EDT)
::Not true. Beale's antisemitism was [https://www.wehuntedthemammoth.com/category/vox-day/page/5/ on full display well before User:Conservative started spamming all over Conservapedia as an "expert" on "Christianity". And when it was called to his attention he refuses (and still refuses) to correct his spam postings or apologize to the community for what he claims is an "oversight"]. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.]]</sup> 22:47, March 28, 2026 (EDT)
*
Is [https://archive.is/996x7 this]-2015 (''his criticisms of a black female writer as an “ignorant half-savage.” He has called women’s rights “a disease”''), the first published article about him?[[User:LaMarina|LaMarina]] ([[User talk:LaMarina|talk]]) 00:57, March 29, 2026 (EDT)
:The ''WSJ'' article was the first time [[Beale]]/Day was called out in a high profile [[MSM]] publication. His blog, ''Vox Populi'', is loaded with antisemitic and racist crap going back years. Even then, when [[User:Conservative]] was called out for elevating and promoting Day, he refused to do anything about it. (He typically doubles & triples down on his racist spamming when challenged, rather than check his sources). Eventually he changed the name "Vox Day" to "Theodore Beale" in hundreds of [[Conservapedia]] mainspaces and tried to hide his promotion of [[Vox Day]] on talk pages. He still has not checked, reviewed, or removed any of the content.
:I don't know if the man is an antisemite or just an idiot. I think a little of both.
:His claim of Beale's views changing is [[BS]]. Even after the ''WSJ'' article appeared, he continued [[spamming]] and promoting Beale/Day until the [[blowback]] started to backfire on himself. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.]]</sup> 17:23, March 29, 2026 (EDT)
*[https://www.wehuntedthemammoth.com/2016/09/21/vox-day-declares-nazism-semiotically-useful-specifies-which-kind-of-jew-is-ok-to-him/ Vox Day declares Nazism “semiotically useful,” specifies which kind of Jew is ok to him]. 21 September, 2016.
This appears to be more of a defense by Beale/Day of himself after the ''WSJ'' brought him wider attention, not a "later conversion" to racist and antisemitic attitudes as [[User:Conservative]] suggests. [[User:Conservative]] was actively defending Beale/Day at this time, and did so for years until he was finally forced to disassociate himself from Day. But he still never cleaned up any of Day's content from [[Conservapedia]]. All he did was [[CYA]].
There is no evidence Beale/Day ever advocated, taught, or preached the [[Christian]] gospel, as [[User:Conservative]] suggests.
All this violates [[Conservapedia Commandments]] #1 = "Everything you post must be true and correct." [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|Abnormal is fine. Stupid isn't.]]</sup> 22:04, April 2, 2026 (EDT)
==User:Conservative trolling==
[[File:Keynes.jpg|center|thumbnail|650px|[[Keynesian Economics]] was "the dominant [[economic]] paradigm from the 1940s to the 1970s."
It is associated with the ideas of the incompetent [[British]] economist and [[John Maynard Keynes and pederasty|pedophile]] [[John Maynard Keynes]].<ref>
*[http://www.keynesatharvard.org/book/KeynesatHarvard-ch09.html KEYNES AT HARVARD Economic Deception as a Political Credo BY ZYGMUND DOBBS]
*[http://centurean2.wordpress.com/2011/03/20/fabian-john-maynard-keynes-the-stealthy-enemy-of-human-freedom/ John Maynard Keynes the stealthy enemy of human freedom]
*[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-02-22/deathbed-of-keynesian-economics-will-be-in-u-k-matthew-lynn.html Deathbed of Keynesian Economics will be in the UK]
*[http://www.iwf.org/inkwell/show/23102.html Will the G8 Repudiate the Philosophy of Living Beyond Our Means?]]]
[[File:USA GNP growth from january 1947 to January 2023.jpg|650px|thumbnail|center|Chart of the growth of U.S. [[Gross National Product|GNP]] from January 1947 to January 2023.
<br />
<br />
[[User:Conservative]], an apologist for [[Biden]]ism & [[Keynesianism]], asserts "A great strength of the United States is its very consistent growth of its GNP over decades and its quick recovery the few times its GNP has gone down. See also [[Economic stimulus]].
<br />
<br />
The [[Vietnam war|Vietnam]] and [[Afghan war]]s occupy 30 of 57 years between 1964 and 2021.
<br />
<br />
Moral of the story: Military Keynesian can sustain [[GDP]] growth for years and years, yet it doesn't necessarily make the people more prosperous or even win [[war]]s.]]
*[Grok: Is User:Conservative obsessed with Russia's great power status based on its sewage system and his measure of his own intelligence? https://www.conservapedia.com/Special:Contributions/Conservative
Analysis of Conservapedia User "Conservative"
Based on an examination of Conservapedia content and related discussions, the user "Conservative" (likely a long-time editor under that handle) does appear to have a notable fixation on Russia's infrastructure shortcomings—particularly its sewage system—as a metric for undermining claims of its "great power" status. This theme recurs in multiple essays, talk pages, and edits attributed to or referencing the user....
1. Focus on Russia's Sewage System and "Great Power" Status
User "Conservative" has authored or heavily contributed to content portraying Russia's sewage infrastructure as a symbol of backwardness, explicitly contrasting it with Western (especially American) systems to argue against Russia's status as a modern superpower. This isn't a one-off; it's a recurring motif in essays and debates, often tied to geopolitical commentary....
:Patterns in Talk Pages and Edits
::On User talk:Aschlafly (Conservapedia founder Andrew Schlafly's page), discussions reference the user repeatedly arguing that Russia's (and Greenland/Alaska's) harsh climates prevent comparable sewage systems to temperate Western nations, using this to "brainwash" Schlafly into moderating pro-Russia views....
2. Emphasis on Intelligence/IQ as a Measure of Superiority
The user is Conservapedia's most prolific contributor on topics like atheism, evolution, and related pseudoscientific debates, where IQ serves as a frequent benchmark for ideological validation. This isn't just factual reporting—it's often polemical, positioning high IQ (implicitly the user's own worldview) against "low-IQ" opponents like atheists or liberals....
:Self-Measurement Angle
::In broader Conservapedia context, the user's output (e.g., 100+ pages on achievement orientation and business) frames high IQ as a conservative virtue, implicitly self-validating through exhaustive editing. External analyses (e.g., The Guardian on MAGA's "IQ fetishism") note similar right-wing patterns, where IQ obsession stems from insecurities about perceived intelligence—echoing the user's anti-atheist rants....
Conclusion: Yes, with Nuances
User "Conservative" fixates on Russia's sewage woes as a quirky but persistent jab at its superpower pretensions, substantiated by dedicated essays and edit histories. Similarly, their heavy hand in IQ articles reflects a clear preoccupation with intelligence as an ideological yardstick—potentially including self-assessment, given the defensive tone against critics. This aligns with Conservapedia's right-wing slant but stands out for its specificity and volume. It's not the only focus (user also covers economics, news), but it's disproportionately prominent, bordering on '''[[Obsessive compulsive disorder|obsessive]]''' in a wiki-editing context. For deeper dives, the linked pages provide raw evidence.
[[Category:Essays]][[Category:Economics]]
[[Category:Rhetoric]][[Category:User:Conservative proven wrong]]