Robert M. Groves

Robert M. Groves is a liberal professor from the University of Michigan and a survey expert who has authored several books on the topic. President Obama has chosen him to direct Census 2010.

History and Accomplishments

Groves was previously involved with the census bureau from 1990 to 1992, where Dr. Bryant (director of the 1990 survey) appointed him associate director of statistical design. Favoring the use of sampling in the census, Groves direction of the census may be unconstitutional under the Actual Enumeration requirement of Article I.

Groves authored a book in 2001 entitled Survey Nonresponse.

Attempted Survey Readjustment in 1990

"When he was the bureau's associate director, Groves recommended that the 1990 census be statistically adjusted to make up for an undercount of roughly 5 million people, many of them minorities in dense urban areas who tend to vote for Democrats. " Thankfully, this "political tampering" was overruled by Republican Commerce Secretary Robert Mosbacher.

"When Groves was associate director at the Census Bureau he recommended statistical sampling to make up for the projected “undercount” of 5 million people in 2000. These essentially made-up people – intended to represent the undercounted population – are assigned a gender, race, income, and generalized region based on the Census Bureau’s formula."

When sampling is used to correct an undercount, the Census Bureau must create a formula to determine the characteristics of the "made-up" individuals. "How you structure the formula affects the results. It's possible a party in power might determine the desired result first, then determine the sampling formula needed to achieve it."

Since Groves had last served in the census bureau, in 1990 Doc v. United States House of Representatives, 525 U.S. 316 (1999) ruled that "statistical sampling cannot be used to apportion congressional seats, but can be used for other purposes, such as legislative redistricting and, of course, doling out dollars."

Books and Articles

A complete list can be found here: http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/people/cv/groves_robert_cv.pdf

Groves' books recent books and articles focus heavily on the psychology and methodology of telephone surveys. Many of these discuss methods for dealing with survey non response, and Groves suggests various adjustments to make up for nonresponse.

"The expressions above concern sample values and estimates, unadjusted in any way to compensate for nonresponse. It is common, however, to use weighting class adjustments (Bethlehem 2002), raking (Deville, Särndal, and Sautory 1993), calibration methods (Deville and Särndal 1992; Lundström and Särndal 1999), or propensity models (Ekholm and Laaksonen 1991) to reduce the biasing effects of response propensities correlated with the survey variables."

Groves admits that "some adjustments may make matters worse."

Nevertheless, he says, "Since probability samples have the advantage of eliminating bias at the selection step, it is useful to consider assembling auxiliary variables to compensate for nonresponse bias through the use of strong postsurvey adjustment models."

Since he recommends using adjustments for small surveys, it follows logically that he will support similar adjustments in the Census of 2010.

Books

P. Biemer, R. Groves, L. Lyberg, N. Mathiowetz, and S. Sudman (eds.), Measurement Errors in Surveys, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1991.

Groves, Robert M., and Couper, Mick P., Nonresponse in Household Interview Surveys, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1998. (AAPOR Book Award winner, 2008)

Groves, Robert M., D. Dillman, J. Eltinge, R. Little, Survey Nonresponse, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 2002. Groves, Robert M., F. Fowler, Jr., M. Couper, J. Lepkowski, E. Singer, and R. Tourangeau, Survey Methodology, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 2004.

Articles

1995 -- Kessler, R.C., Little, R.J.A., and Groves, R.M. (1995) "Advances in Strategies for Minimizing and Adjusting for Survey Nonresponse," Epidemiological Reviews, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 192-204.

1996 -- Couper, M.P. and Groves, R.M. (1996), “Household Level Determinants of Survey Nonresponse,” Chapter Five in Braverman, M.T. and Slater, J.K. (eds.) Advances in Survey Research, pp. 63-80.

2001 -- Groves, R., and Couper, M., “Designing Surveys Acknowledging Nonresponse,” Chapter 1 in ver Ploeg, M; Moffitt, R.; and Citro, C. (eds.) Studies of Welfare Populations: Data Collection and Research Issues, Washington: National Academy Press, 2001, pp. 11-54.

2002 -- Dillman, D., Eltinge, J., Groves, R., and Little, R. , “Survey Nonresponse in Design, Data Collection, and Analysis, “ Chapter 1 in Groves, R.; Dillman, D., Eltinge, J., and Little, R. (eds.), Survey Nonresponse, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 2002, pp 3-26.

2006 -- Groves, R. “Nonresponse Rates and Nonresponse Bias in Household Surveys,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 2006, pp. 646-675.

Present Stance on Sampling

"In testimony before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, the nominee, Robert M. Groves, said he supported the view of Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, who oversees the Census Bureau and has said there are no plans to use statistical sampling in the 2010 count."

Although Groves states he will not use sampling, it is not inconceivable that he could attempt to use other tricks in 2010. For example, hot-deck imputation is an unregulated technique with power to significantly change results, depending on how it is applied.

Criticism of Groves' Nomination

House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio):

“Conducting the census is a vital Constitutional obligation. Its findings help determine how hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars are spent, as well as how the American people are represented in Congress. It should be as solid, reliable, and accurate as possible in every respect. That is why I’m concerned about the White House decision to select Robert Groves as director of the Census Bureau. As associate director of statistical design at the Census Bureau in the 1990s, Mr. Groves reportedly advocated a scheme to use computer analysis to manipulate Census data, rather than simply conducting an accurate count of the American people. That plan was ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in 1999, but we will have to watch closely to ensure the 2010 census is conducted without attempting similar statistical sleight of hand.”

"With the nomination of Robert Groves, President Obama has made clear that he intends to employ the political manipulation of census data for partisan gain," North Carolina Congressman Patrick McHenry cautioned.

"This is an incredibly troubling selection that contradicts the administration’s assurances that the census process would not be used to advance an ulterior political agenda," said Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., the top Republican on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

Hope Yen says, "Census experts have said it would be difficult at this point to make plans for sampling in the 2010 census for congressional redistricting purposes since it is only a year away. It is more likely that Groves could have an impact on statistical adjustment and other decisions as part of long-term planning for census surveys after 2010."

According to TIME, "Groves and his statistical models could still play a major role shaping the census of the future."