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| − | '''Global warming''' is the increase in the [[Instrumental temperature record|average temperature]] of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. Global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °[[Celsius|C]] (1.33 ± 0.32 °[[Fahrenheit|F]]) during the last century.<ref name="grida7">{{cite web|url=http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_SPM.pdf|author=IPCC|format=PDF|title=Summary for Policymakers|work=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|date=2007-05-04|accessdate=2009-07-03}}</ref>{{Cref2|A}} The [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] (IPCC) concludes that increasing [[greenhouse gas]] concentrations resulting from [[anthropogenic|human activity]] such as [[fossil fuel]] burning and [[deforestation]] [[attribution of recent climate change|caused]] most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century.<ref name="grida7"/> The IPCC also concludes that variations in natural phenomena such as [[solar variation|solar radiation]] and [[volcano]]es produced most of the warming from [[pre-industrial]] times to 1950 and had a small cooling effect afterward.<ref name=Hegerl-2001>{{cite web|url=http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_Ch09.pdf|format=PDF|title=Understanding and Attributing Climate Change|work=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|date=2007|publisher=IPCC|last=Hegerl|first=Gabriele C.|coauthors=''et al.''|quote=Recent estimates indicate a relatively small combined effect of natural forcings on the global mean temperature evolution of the second half of the 20th century, with a small net cooling from the combined effects of solar and volcanic forcings.}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last=Ammann|first=Caspar|coauthors=''et al.''|date=2007|title=Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate Simulation Model|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America|volume=104|issue=10|pages=3713–3718|url=http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/104/10/3713.pdf|format=PDF|quote=Simulations with only natural forcing components included yield an early 20th century peak warming of ≈0.2 °C (≈1950 AD), which is reduced to about half by the end of the century because of increased volcanism.|doi=10.1073/pnas.0605064103|pmid=17360418}}</ref> These basic conclusions have been [[Scientific opinion on climate change|endorsed by more than 40 scientific societies and academies of science]],{{Cref2|B}} including all of the [[National academy|national academies of science]] of the [[G8|major industrialized countries]].<ref>{{cite web|title=Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change|author=Royal Society|url=http://royalsociety.org/displaypagedoc.asp?id=20742|accessdate=19 April 2009|date=2005}}</ref> A small number of [[List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming|scientists dispute the consensus view]]. | + | [[Image:RobinsonWhatWarmsTheEarth.gif|right|frame]] |
| | + | '''Global warming''' is a term generally used to describe an increase in the global average surface (air at surface) temperature. |
| | + | As far back as temperature records can be reconstructed, periods of global warming and global cooling have alternated; see [[ice age]]s and [[interglacial warming]]. |
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| − | [[Climate model]] projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that the [[global]] surface temperature will probably rise a further {{nowrap|1.1 to 6.4 °C}} {{nowrap|(2.0 to 11.5 °F)}} during the twenty-first century.<ref name="grida7"/> The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of models with differing [[climate sensitivity|sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations]] and the use of differing [[Special Report on Emissions Scenarios|estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions]]. Some other [[uncertainty|uncertainties]] include how warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe. Most studies focus on the period up to the year 2100. However, warming is expected to continue beyond 2100 even if emissions stop, because of the large [[heat capacity]] of the [[oceans]] and the long lifetime of [[CO2|carbon dioxide]] in the atmosphere.<ref>{{cite journal|url=http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/reprints/archer.2005.fate_co2.pdf|format=PDF|first=David|last=Archer|title=Fate of fossil fuel {{chem|CO|2}} in geologic time|journal=Journal of Geophysical Research|volume=110|issue=C9|pages=C09S05.1–C09S05.6|year=2005|doi=10.1029/2004JC002625}}</ref><ref name=solomon-2009>{{cite journal|author=Solomon, S., ''et al.''|year=2009|title=Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences|volume=106|number=6|pages=1704–1709|doi=10.1073/pnas.0812721106}}</ref>
| + | The term is most often used to refer to the modern period of global warming, an increase of {{temperature|0.8|1.4}} has been measured at weather stations throughout the world, since around 1850, when instrumental measurements began to be taken and organized records began to be kept. Although only a small increase in absolute terms, the temperature increase is unprecedented within at least the last 14,000 years according to the reconstructions by Viau et al. (2006) <ref>http://www.citeulike.org/user/kmcolo/article/618203 Viau et al. (2006) 'Millennial-scale temperature variations in North America during the Holocene' in Journal of Geophysical Research, 111</ref> and can have a significant impact upon the earth. Since this happens to correlate with increases in [[carbon dioxide]], many have speculated about their possible relationship. Despite this, there is no completely proven model explaining the rise in global temperatures. |
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| − | An increase in global temperature will cause [[sea level rise|sea levels to rise]] and will change the amount and pattern of [[precipitation (meteorology)|precipitation]], probably including expansion of subtropical [[desert]]s.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Lu|first=Jian|xauthorlink=Jian Lu|coauthors=Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Reichler, Thomas|title=Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|volume=34|date=2007|url=http://www.atmos.berkeley.edu/~jchiang/Class/Spr07/Geog257/Week10/Lu_Hadley06.pdf|doi=10.1029/2006GL028443|pages=L06805}}</ref> The continuing retreat of [[retreat of glaciers since 1850|glaciers]], [[permafrost]] and [[sea ice]] is expected, with warming being [[Arctic shrinkage|strongest in the Arctic]]. Other likely effects include increases in the intensity of [[extreme weather]] events, [[extinction risk from climate change|species extinctions]], and changes in [[agricultural yield]]s.
| + | Although measurements have been made of the temperatures of other planets these are by no means thorough or comparable with the measurements used for earth. The short space of time over which measurements have been taken and the very limited spatial coverage means that reliable average figures have not been obtained. They have certainly not been taken extensively enough to produce a five year average temperature, which is the standard when determining temperature trends on earth. |
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| − | [[Politics of global warming|Political]] and [[global warming controversy|public debate]] continues regarding climate change, and what actions (if any) to take in response. The available options are [[Mitigation of global warming|mitigation]] to reduce further emissions; [[Adaptation to global warming|adaptation]] to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively, [[geoengineering]] to reverse global warming. [[List of Kyoto Protocol signatories|Most national governments]] have signed and ratified the [[Kyoto Protocol]] aimed at reducing [[greenhouse gas]] emissions.
| + | ==Controversy== |
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| − | ==Temperature changes==
| + | {{main|Global Warming Controversy}} |
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| − | {{Main|Temperature record}}
| + | Since 1989, advocates have clashed on the issue of whether human beings are more responsible than nature for modern periods of global warming; see "[[greenhouse warming]]" and [[global warming theory]].<ref>Some people predicted "global warming," which has come to mean extreme [[greenhouse warming]] of the atmosphere leading to catastrophic environmental consequences. [http://www.junkscience.com/news/robinson.htm]</ref> |
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| | + | Most non-scientific support for the global warming theory rests on popular accounts such as Al Gore's ''[[An Inconvenient Truth]]'' or on reports issued by the UN's [[IPCC]]. However, Keston Green of Monash University and Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School wrote that: |
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| − | [[File:2000 Year Temperature Comparison.png|thumb|Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions, each smoothed on a decadal scale. The unsmoothed, annual value for 2004 is also plotted for reference.]] | + | *Because the forecasting processes examined in Chapter 8 overlook scientific evidence on forecasting, the [[IPCC]] forecasts of climate change are not scientific. <ref>http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Public_Policy/WarmAudit31.pdf</ref> |
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| − | The most commonly discussed measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a [[linear]] trend, this temperature rose by 0.74°C ±0.18°C over the period 1906-2005. The rate of warming over the last 50 years of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13°C ±0.03°C per decade, versus 0.07°C ± 0.02°C per decade). The [[urban heat island]] effect is estimated to account for about 0.002 °C of warming per decade since 1900.<ref>{{Cite book|last=Trenberth|first=Kevin E.|coauthors=''et al.''|title=IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf|format=PDF|year=2007|publisher=Cambridge University Press|location=Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA|page=244|chapter=Chapter 3: Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change|chapterurl=http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter3.pdf}}</ref> Temperatures in the lower [[troposphere]] have increased between 0.12 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to [[satellite temperature measurements]]. Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the [[Temperature record of the past 1000 years|one or two thousand years]] before 1850, with regionally-varying fluctuations such as the [[Medieval Warm Period]] or the [[Little Ice Age]].
| + | Former vice-president [[Al Gore]] calls it a [[moral issue]], while climate scientist [[Richard Lindzen]] says, "It is probably the most immoral thing you could do to restrain energy so that the billions in the earth who don’t have access to electricity won't conveniently get it." <ref>http://www.americaabroadmedia.org/media/On line extra materials/Climate change - lindzen interview.doc</ref> However, it is to be noted that many proponents of the theory propose energy conservation only until 'green' energy generation becomes predominant. |
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| − | Based on estimates by [[NASA]]'s [[Goddard Institute for Space Studies]], 2005 was the warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 1800s, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/|last=Hansen|first=James E.|authorlink=James Hansen|coauthors=''et al.''|title=Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS Surface Temperature Analysis|accessdate=2007-01-17|date=2006-01-12|publisher=NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies}}</ref> Estimates prepared by the [[World Meteorological Organization]] and the [[Climatic Research Unit]] concluded that 2005 was the second warmest year, behind 1998.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/press/2005-12-WMO.pdf|title=Global Temperature for 2005: second warmest year on record|accessdate=2007-04-13|date=2005-12-15|publisher=Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia|format=PDF}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/statement/documents/WMO998_E.pdf|format=PDF|title=WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2005|accessdate=2009-04-24|date=2005-12-15|publisher=World Meteorological Organization}}</ref> Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest [[El Niño-Southern Oscillation|El Niño]] in the past century occurred during that year.<ref name="Changnon2000">{{cite book|title=El Niño, 1997-1998: The Climate Event of the Century|last=Changnon|first=Stanley A.|coauthors=Bell, Gerald D.|year=2000|publisher=Oxford University Press|location=London|isbn=0195135520}}</ref>
| + | In the general, the term ''global warming'' can be used for any upward trend in the [[Global mean temperature record|global mean temperature]], but it is mostly used to refer to the 1° F warming since 1850. |
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| − | Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade).<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter3.pdf|title=IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 3|accessdate=2009-03-14|date=2007-02-05|pages=237}}</ref> Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation.<ref>{{cite journal|title=Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations|author=Rowan T. Sutton, Buwen Dong, Jonathan M. Gregory|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|volume=34|url=http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028164.shtml|doi=10.1029/2006GL028164|year=2007|accessdate=2007-09-19|pages=L02701}}</ref> The [[Northern Hemisphere]] warms faster than the [[Southern Hemisphere]] because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to the [[ice-albedo feedback]]. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.<ref>{{cite book|chapterurl=http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/CLIMATE/IPCC_TAR/WG1/127.htm|title=Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis|chapter=Atmospheric Chemistry and Greenhouse Gases|url=http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/CLIMATE/IPCC_TAR/WG1/|author=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|authorlink=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|publisher=Cambridge University Press|location=Cambridge, UK|year=2001}}</ref>
| + | The two sides are divided on whether this warming is a natural recovery from the [[Little Ice Age]] or a man-made environmental phenomenon. There are also debates regarding the potential positive or negative effects of a warming. |
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| − | The [[Volumetric heat capacity|thermal inertia]] of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. [[Climate commitment]] studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about {{nowrap|0.5 °C}} {{nowrap|(0.9 °F)}} would still occur.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Meehl|first=Gerald A.|coauthors=''et al.''|date=2005-03-18|title=How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise|journal=Science|volume=307|issue=5716|pages=1769–1772|doi=10.1126/science.1106663|url=http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/307/5716/1769.pdf|format=PDF|accessdate=2007-02-11|pmid=15774757}}</ref>
| + | Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. are evenly split on the issue. ''Boston Globe'' writer [[Ellen Goodman]] wrote: |
| | + | * Only 23 percent of college-educated Republicans believe the warming is due to humans, while 75 percent of college-educated Democrats believe it. <ref> [http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/02/09/no_change_in_political_climate/] </ref> |
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| − | {{Clear}}
| + | Controversy and scientific inaccuracies may have contributed to addressing 'Climate Change' in place of using Global Warming. As the northern pole region melts, the southern pole region ice is growing <ref>[http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0110/p14s01-sten.html], http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0110/p14s01-sten.html, As arctic ice melts, South Pole ice grows, January 10, 2008</ref> <ref>[http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25348657-401,00.html Antarctic ice is growing, not melting away] News.com.au, April 18, 2009</ref> The argument is that for alarmists to claim a global threat, it would have to include the entire globe. For skeptics, the evidence is conclusive, there is no threat. |
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| − | ==Radiative forcing==
| + | A recent warming trend in 2009 is also seen by some as contradicting predictions of imminent global warming, and necessitating a change of terminology to ''Climate Change.''<ref>http://www.climatedepot.com/a/1799/Global-temperatures-have-plunged-74degF-since-Gore-released-An-Inconvenient-Truth</ref> It is also pointed out that ''global cooling'' was seen as a threat by the mid-1970's.<ref>[http://denisdutton.com/newsweek_coolingworld.pdf Newsweek, April 28, 1975 (photocopy)]</ref> |
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| − | {{Main|Radiative forcing}}
| + | ==The Modern Warm Period== |
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| − | External forcing is a term used in climate science for processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth). Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as changes in [[greenhouse gases|greenhouse gas]] concentrations, changes in [[solar luminosity]], [[volcano|volcanic]] eruptions, and [[orbital forcing|variations in Earth's orbit]] around the Sun.<ref name=Hegerl-2001/> Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to have caused the temperature changes observed in the past century.
| + | The Average [[Earth]] surface air temperature has risen about 1° F since 1970. |
| | + | <ref>Hansen's group at the Goddard Institute wrote, "Global warming is now 0.6 °C [1.0 °F] in the past three decades and 0.8 °C [1.4 °F] in the past century." http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/</ref> Studies have ruled out the possibility that errors in the measurements and sampling significantly affect the temperature trends detected over the past century. This accounts for spatial errors in the sampling and thus also incorporates errors associated with the urban-heating effect. According to Karl et al. (1993) ''"Results imply that the errors associated with century-scale trends of temperature are probably an order of magnitude smaller than the observed global warming of nearly 0.5°C per 100 years since the late nineteenth century"'' <ref>http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1994JCli....7.1144K Karl et al. (1993) 'Global and Hemispheric Temperature Trends: Uncertainties Related to Inadequate Spatial Sampling' in Journal of Climate, 7(7); 1144 - 1168</ref> |
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| − | ===Greenhouse gases===
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| − | {{Main|Greenhouse gas|Greenhouse effect}}
| + | According to temperature reconstruction made within an [[Old Earth]] paradigm, there have been many cycles of naturally-caused global warming and cooling over many millions of years (see [[climate cycles]]). Some scientists, including [[Richard Lindzen]] of [[MIT]], [[Sallie Baliunas]] of [[Harvard]] and [[Fred Singer]] (independent), say that the recent warming could be part of another natural cycle or random fluctuations in the atmosphere. However, many scientists also think that human activities were most likely the cause of the the planet's recent warming. |
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| − | {{Double image stack|right|Greenhouse Effect.svg|Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide-en.svg|180|Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between the atmosphere, space, and earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m<sup>2</sup>).|Recent atmospheric [[carbon dioxide]] (CO<sub>2</sub>) increases. Monthly CO<sub>2</sub> measurements display seasonal oscillations in overall yearly uptrend; each year's maximum occurs during the [[Northern Hemisphere]]'s late spring, and declines during its growing season as plants remove some atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>.}}
| + | == Sun Spots == |
| | + | Sunspot activity may be a primary factor in climate fluctuations, according to Willie Soon, a researcher affiliated with the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and the Harvard College Observatory. '''“The sun is a great driving force to climate change.”''' Soon said that there have been much greater temperature fluctuations due to sunspots in the past and that proponents of global warming need to consider the effects of sunspot activity on global temperatures. Brian Farrell, a Harvard meteorology professor, acknowledged a connection between sunspot activity and temperatures on the Earth, “A strong correlation between the amount of radioactive carbon and temperature from ice cores has shown that solar activity can affect temperature." <ref>[http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/42006/181/ Harvard astrophysicist: Sunspot activity correlates to global climate change] TGDaily.com, April 10, 2009</ref> |
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| − | The greenhouse effect is the process by which [[Absorption (electromagnetic radiation)|absorption]] and emission of [[infrared]] radiation by gases in the [[atmosphere]] warm a [[planet]]'s lower atmosphere and surface. It was discovered by [[Joseph Fourier]] in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by [[Svante Arrhenius]] in 1896.<ref>{{cite web|title=The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect|work=The Discovery of Global Warming|url=http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm|accessdate=21 April 2009|year=2008|publisher=American Institute of Physics|author=Spencer Weart}}</ref> Existence of the greenhouse effect as such is not disputed, even by those who do not agree that the recent temperature increase is attributable to human activity. The question is instead how the strength of the greenhouse effect changes when human activity increases the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
| + | ==Liberal claims of "Consensus"== |
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| − | Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).<ref name="IPCC_WG1_AR4_Ch1">{{cite web|author=IPCC|work=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|title=Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science|url=http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_Ch01.pdf|format=PDF|accessdate=21 April 2009|year=2007|publisher=IPCC|quote=To emit 240 W m–2, a surface would have to have a temperature of around –19 °C. This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth’s surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C). Instead, the necessary –19 °C is found at an altitude about 5 km above the surface.|pages=p97 (PDF page 5 of 36)|work=IPCC WG1 AR4 Report}}</ref>{{Cref2|C}} The major greenhouse gases are [[water vapor]], which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; [[carbon dioxide]] (CO<sub>2</sub>), which causes 9–26 percent; [[methane]] (CH<sub>4</sub>), which causes 4–9 percent{{Failed verification|date=June 2009}}; and [[ozone]] (O<sub>3</sub>), which causes 3–7 percent.<ref>{{cite journal|url=http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/spring04/atmo451b/pdf/RadiationBudget.pdf|title=Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget|author=Kiehl, J.T. and K.E. Trenberth|format=PDF|journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society|pages=197–208|volume=78|issue=2|date=1997|accessdate=21 April 2009|doi=10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2|year=1997}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=142|year=6 Apr 2005|title=Water vapour: feedback or forcing?|author=Gavin Schmidt|publisher=RealClimate|accessdate=21 April 2009}}</ref> Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water or ice and so are [[Cloud forcing|considered separately]] from water vapor and other gases.
| + | [[Richard Lindzen]] wrote in 1992, |
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| − | Human activity since the [[Industrial Revolution]] has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased [[radiative forcing]] from CO<sub>2</sub>, [[methane]], tropospheric [[ozone]], [[CFC]]s and [[nitrous oxide]]. The [[Greenhouse gas#Increase of greenhouse gases|concentrations]] of CO<sub>2</sub> and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since the mid-1700s.<ref>{{cite web|author=EPA|date=2008|title=Recent Climate Change: Atmosphere Changes|work=Climate Change Science Program|url=http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentac.html|accessdate=21 April 2009|year=2007|publisher=United States Environmental Protection Agency}}</ref> These levels are considerably higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from [[ice core]]s.<ref>{{cite journal|author=Neftel, A., E. Moor, H. Oeschger, and B. Stauffer|date=1985|title=Evidence from polar ice cores for the increase in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> in the past two centuries|journal=Nature|volume=315|pages=45–47|doi=10.1038/315045a0}}</ref> Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO<sub>2</sub> values this high were last seen approximately 20 million years ago.<ref>{{cite journal|author=Pearson, P.N. and M.R. Palmer|journal=Nature|title=Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years|date=2000|volume=406|issue=6797|pages=695–699|doi=10.1038/35021000}}</ref> [[Fossil fuel]] burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO<sub>2</sub> from human activity over the past 20 years. Most of the rest is due to land-use change, particularly [[deforestation]].<ref name=spm-2001>{{cite web|url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/pdf/WG1_TAR-FRONT.pdf|format=PDF|title=Summary for Policymakers|author=IPCC|work=Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|accessdate=21 April 2009|date=2001|publisher=IPCC}}</ref>
| + | :Indeed, a recent Gallup poll of climate scientists in the American Meteorological Society and in the American Geophysical Union shows that a vast majority doubts that there has been any identifiable man-caused warming to date (49 percent asserted no, 33 percent did not know, 18 percent thought some has occurred; however, among those actively involved in research and publishing frequently in peer-reviewed research journals, none believes that any man-caused global warming has been identified so far). <ref name="cato">http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv15n2/reg15n2g.html</ref> |
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| − | CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations are continuing to rise due to burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. The future rate of rise will depend on uncertain economic, [[sociology|sociological]], [[technology|technological]], and natural developments. Accordingly, the IPCC [[Special Report on Emissions Scenarios]] gives a wide range of future CO<sub>2</sub> scenarios, ranging from 541 to 970 ppm by the year 2100.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/123.htm|author=Prentice, I.C., ''et al.''|title=The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: SRES scenarios and their implications for future CO2 concentration|work=Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|accessdate=21 April 2009|date=2001|publisher=IPCC}}</ref> Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach these levels and continue emissions past 2100 if [[coal]], [[tar sands]] or [[methane clathrate]]s are extensively exploited.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/104.htm|author=Nakicenovic., N., ''et al.''|title=An Overview of Scenarios: Resource Availability|work=IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios|accessdate=21 April 2009|publisher=IPCC|date=2001}}</ref>
| + | Oddly enough, even though 82% of US climate scientists refused to support the global warming theory then, [[liberal]] activists were already claiming a scientific consensus for [[anthropogenic global warming]]. (It's hard to understand how 18 percent credence in ''any'' global warming translates into "consensus" support for ''human-caused'' global warming.) |
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| − | The destruction of [[stratosphere|stratospheric]] ozone by [[chlorofluorocarbons]] is sometimes mentioned in relation to global warming. Although there are a few [[Ozone depletion#Ozone depletion and global warming|areas of linkage]], the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduction of stratospheric ozone has a cooling influence, but substantial ozone depletion did not occur until the late 1970s.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.nas.nasa.gov/About/Education/Ozone/history.html|title=Ozone Depletion, History and politics|last=Sparling|first=Brien|date=May 30, 2001|publisher=NASA|accessdate=2009-02-15}}</ref> [[Tropospheric ozone]] contributes to surface warming.<ref>{{cite journal|doi=10.1029/2005JD006348|title=Role of tropospheric ozone increases in 20th-century climate change|year=2006|author=Shindell, Drew|journal=Journal of Geophysical Research|volume=111|pages=D08302}}</ref> | + | The campaign to convince the public (and their elected representatives) that the "science is settled" began in 1988 or 1989. |
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| − | {{Clear}}
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| − | ===Aerosols and soot===
| + | By the 2008 elections both candidates for the Presidency of the United States were proposing plans to mitigate climate change. |
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| − | [[File:ShipTracks MODIS 2005may11.jpg|thumb|[[Ship tracks]] over the [[Atlantic Ocean]] on the east coast of the United States. The climatic impacts from aerosol forcing could have a large effect on climate through the indirect effect.]] | + | Over 31,000 American scientists have signed the petition rejecting global warming. <ref>[http://www.petitionproject.org/</ref> |
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| − | [[Global dimming]], a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct [[irradiance]] at the Earth's surface, has partially counteracted global warming from 1960 to the present.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/462.htm|author=Mitchell, J.F.B., ''et al.''|title=Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes: Space-time studies|work=Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|accessdate=21 April 2009|date=2001|publisher=IPCC}}</ref> The main cause of this dimming is [[aerosols]] produced by volcanoes and [[pollutant]]s. These aerosols exert a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. [[James Hansen]] and colleagues have proposed that the effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion—CO<sub>2</sub> and aerosols—have largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been driven mainly by non-CO<sub>2</sub> greenhouse gases.<ref name="pmid10944197">{{cite journal|author=Hansen J., Sato M., Ruedy R., Lacis A., and Oinas V.|title=Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario|journal=Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.|volume=97|issue=18|pages=9875–80|year=2000|doi=10.1073/pnas.170278997}}</ref> | + | [[Image:Teller_Card_100dpi.jpg|600px|center|thumb| Global Warming Petition]] |
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| − | In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, aerosols have indirect effects on the radiation budget.<ref>{{cite journal|author=Lohmann, U. & J. Feichter|date=2005|title=Global indirect aerosol effects: a review|journal=Atmos. Chem. Phys.|volume=5|pages=715–737|url=http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/5/715/2005/acp-5-715-2005.html}}</ref> Sulfate aerosols act as [[cloud condensation nuclei]] and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds [[Twomey effect|reflect solar radiation]] more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.<ref>{{cite journal|author=Twomey, S.|date=1977|title=Influence of pollution on shortwave albedo of clouds|journal=J. Atmos. Sci.|volume=34|pages=1149–1152|doi=10.1175/1520-0469(1977)034<1149:TIOPOT>2.0.CO;2|year=1977}}</ref> This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops by [[Cloud_physics#Collision-Coalescence|collision-coalescence]]. Clouds modified by pollution have been shown to produce less [[drizzle]], making the cloud brighter and more reflective to incoming sunlight, especially in the near-infrared part of the spectrum.<ref>{{cite journal|author=Albrecht, B.|date=1989|title=Aerosols, cloud microphysics, and fractional cloudiness|journal=Science|volume=245|pages=1227–1239|doi=10.1126/science.245.4923.1227|pmid=17747885}}</ref>
| + | It is well understood that most media companies do not offer balanced reporting. Many politicians have bought into the liberal claim of consensus, for example Barack Obama's views, "Few challenges facing America and the world are more urgent than fighting climate change. The science is beyond dispute and the facts are clear." <ref>[http://cato.org/special/climatechange/ Climate Change Reality] Cato Institute</ref> In fact, many scientists disagree with the "facts," their certainty, and their interpretation. Over 100 of them have signed the statement that appears in the Cato Institute's newspaper ad. Liberals have failed to back up their claims with any scientific facts. |
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| − | [[Soot]] may cool or warm, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric [[soot]] aerosols directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. Regionally (but not globally), as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by [[atmospheric brown cloud]]s.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Ramanathan|first=V.|coauthors=''et al.''|year=2005|url=http://www.pnas.org/content/102/15/5326.abstract|title=Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle|journal=Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.|volume=102|pages=5326–5333|doi=10.1073/pnas.0500656102}}</ref> When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface [[albedo]] can also directly heat the surface.<ref>{{cite web|author=Ramanathan, V., et al.|date=2008|work=Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia|publisher=United Nations Environment Programme|url=http://www.rrcap.unep.org/abc/impact/files/ABC_Report_Summary_Final.pdf|title=Report Summary}}</ref> The influences of aerosols, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.<ref>{{cite web|author=Ramanathan, V., et al.|date=2008|work=Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia|publisher=United Nations Environment Programme|url=http://www.rrcap.unep.org/abc/publication/Part%20III.pdf|title=Part III: Global and Future Implications}}</ref> | + | [[File:ad.jpg|center]] |
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| − | {{Clear}}
| + | ==Natural Variability of the Climate System== |
| | + | It is virtually universally accepted amongst climatologists that the earth has experienced numerous [[Ice Age|ice age]]s over two million years, during which global temperatures fluctuated created glacial and inter-glacial periods. The frigid temperatures allowed ice sheets to expand southward, covering much of [[Asia]], [[Europe]], and [[North America]]. The cooling associated with ice ages is gradual, while the terminations are relatively rapid. However, even the rapid terminations of ice ages take centuries to millennia. |
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| − | ===Solar variation=== | + | ==Natural Climate Change on Other Planets== |
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| − | {{Main|Solar variation}} | + | Since the [[Viking spacecraft]] reached [[Mars]] in the 1970s until recent readings were taken, the average temperature on Mars has risen {{temperature|0.6|1.1}} just as the average temperature on the earth has risen. Since human industrialization is clearly not to blame for the change on Mars, other causes are being considered. One possibility is that dust storms are changing the albedo of the planet, allowing it to warm, while another possibility is that solar variations from the sun are causing the warming.<ref>http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/070404_gw_mars.html</ref><ref>http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=17977</ref> |
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| − | [[File:Solar-cycle-data.png|thumb|Solar variation over the last thirty years.]] | + | Recently, it has also been found that similar to the Earth and Mars, [[Neptune]] is also undergoing global warming. Measurements taken at the Lowell observatory in [[Arizona]] have shown an increase in Neptune's brightness and temperature since 1980 following the same pattern seen on Earth and Mars. The researchers who discovered this warming suggest there may be a correlation between the warming and solar variations.<ref>http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007.../2006GL028764.shtml</ref> |
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| − | Variations in solar output have been the cause of past [[climate change]]s.<ref>{{Cite book|last=National Research Council|title=Solar Influences On Global Change|url=http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=4778&page=R1|year=1994|publisher=National Academy Press|location=Washington, D.C.|isbn=0-309-05148-7|page=36}}</ref> Although solar forcing is generally thought to be too small to account for a significant part of global warming in recent decades,<ref>{{Cite journal|title=Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations|year=2002|author=Hansen, J.|journal=Journal of Geophysical Research|volume=107|pages=4347|doi=10.1029/2001JD001143|title=Climate|doi_brokendate=2009-06-24|unused_data=estimated by global circulation models isdoi=10.1029/2001JD001143}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|doi=10.1029/2005JD005776|title=Efficacy of climate forcings|year=2005|author=Hansen, J.|journal=Journal of Geophysical Research|volume=110|pages=D18104}}</ref> a few studies disagree, such as a recent phenomenological analysis that indicates the contribution of solar forcing may be underestimated.<ref>{{Cite journal|doi=10.1029/2007JD008437|title=Phenomenological reconstructions of the solar signature in the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature records since 1600|year=2007|author=Scafetta, N.|journal=Journal of Geophysical Research|volume=112|pages=D24S03|url=http://www.fel.duke.edu/~scafetta/pdf/2007JD008437.pdf}}</ref>
| + | [[Pluto]] has also been found to be undergoing global warming. The overall temperature increase on Pluto has been greater than that on the earth.<ref>http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/pluto_warming_021009.html</ref> |
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| − | Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ways. While both increased solar activity and increased greenhouse gases are expected to warm the [[troposphere]], an increase in solar activity should warm the [[stratosphere]] while an increase in greenhouse gases should cool the stratosphere.<ref name=Hegerl-2001/> Observations show that temperatures in the stratosphere have been steady or cooling since 1979, when satellite measurements became available. [[Radiosonde]] (weather balloon) data from the pre-satellite era show cooling since 1958, though there is greater uncertainty in the early radiosonde record.<ref name=Randel2009>{{cite journal|doi=10.1029/2008JD010421|title=An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends|year=2009|author=Randel, William J.|journal=Journal of Geophysical Research|volume=114|pages=D02107}}</ref>
| + | On the other hand [[Uranus]] has had no net change in temperature since 1977. A rapid increase in temperature reversed itself. The reasons for this are not understood.<ref>http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~layoung/eprint/ur149/Young2001Uranus.pdf</ref> |
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| − | A related hypothesis, proposed by [[Henrik Svensmark]], is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays that may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate.<ref>{{cite journal|first=Nigel|last=Marsh|coauthors=Henrik, Svensmark|title=Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate|journal=Space Science Reviews|volume=94|number=1–2|pages=215–230|year=2000|month=November|url=http://www.dsri.dk/~hsv/SSR_Paper.pdf|format=PDF|doi=10.1023/A:1026723423896|accessdate=2007-04-17}}</ref> Other research has found no relation between warming in recent decades and [[cosmic ray]]s.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Lockwood|first=Mike|coauthors=Claus Fröhlich|title=Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature|journal=Proceedings of the Royal Society A|volume=463|pages=2447|quote=Our results show that the observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanisms is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified.|url=http://www.pubs.royalsoc.ac.uk/media/proceedings_a/rspa20071880.pdf|doi=10.1098/rspa.2007.1880|accessdate=2007-07-21|format=PDF|year=2007}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|doi=10.1088/1748-9326/3/2/024001|title=Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover|author=T Sloan and A W Wolfendale|journal=Environ. Res. Lett.|volume=3|page=024001|year=2008|pages=024001|url=http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/1748-9326/3/2/024001/}}</ref> A recent study concluded that the influence of cosmic rays on cloud cover is about a factor of 100 lower than needed to explain the observed changes in clouds or to be a significant contributor to present-day climate change.<ref>{{cite journal|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|author=Pierce, J.R. and P.J. Adams|date=2009|title=Can cosmic rays affect cloud condensation nuclei by altering new particle formation rates?|volume=36|pages=L09820|doi=10.1029/2009GL037946}}</ref>
| + | Global temperatures change on other planets even when there is no life, something which strongly supports the idea that humans are not necessarily the cause of earth's global warming. Moreover, the temperature on Uranus has fluctuated back and forth. There is no reason that fluctuations cannot occur on earth, too. |
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| − | {{Clear}}
| + | Although measurements have been made of the temperatures of other planets these are by no means thorough or comparable with the measurements used for earth. The short space of time over which measurements have been taken and the very limited spatial coverage means that reliable average figures have not been obtained. They have certainly not been taken extensively enough to produce a five year average temperature, which is the standard when determining temperature trends on earth. |
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| − | ==Feedback==
| + | However, if accurate measurements could be made, and their accuracy and reliability is improving over time, then they may prove useful to climate science. Their different atmospheres and distances from the sun provide natural laboratories to study climatic changes without human influences. Though of course they will not be directly comparable due to the vast differences. |
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| − | {{Main|Effects of global warming}}
| + | ==Beneficial effects of Global Warming== |
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| − | A positive feedback is a process that amplifies some change. Thus, when a warming trend results in effects that induce further warming, the result is a positive feedback; when the warming results in effects that reduce the original warming, the result is a negative feedback. The main positive feedback in global warming involves the tendency of warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. The main negative feedback in global warming is the effect of temperature on emission of infrared radiation: as the temperature of a body increases, the emitted radiation [[Stefan–Boltzmann law|increases with the fourth power]] of its [[absolute temperature]].
| + | Some researchers point out that benefits of health global warming have been overlooked, or minimized. As far back as 1996, Thomas Gale Moore, Senior Fellow at Hoover Institution (Stanford University) contended that positive health and amenity effects would be a result of projected increases in temperature. <ref>[http://www.stanford.edu/~moore/health.html Health and Amenity Effects of Global Warming]</ref> |
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| − | ; [[Water vapor feedback]] : If the atmosphere is warmed, the [[saturation vapor pressure]] increases, and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere will tend to increase. Since water vapor is a greenhouse gas, the increase in water vapor content makes the atmosphere warm further; this warming causes the atmosphere to hold still more water vapor (a [[positive feedback]]), and so on until other processes stop the feedback loop. The result is a much larger greenhouse effect than that due to CO<sub>2</sub> alone. Although this feedback process causes an increase in the absolute moisture content of the air, the [[relative humidity]] stays nearly constant or even decreases slightly because the air is warmer.<ref name="soden1">{{cite journal|first=Brian J.|last=Soden|coauthors=Held, Isacc M.|journal=Journal of Climate|title=An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Models|date=2005-11-01|volume=19|issue=14|format=PDF|accessdate=2007-04-21|quote=Interestingly, the true feedback is consistently weaker than the constant relative humidity value, implying a small but robust reduction in relative humidity in all models on average" "clouds appear to provide a positive feedback in all models|pages=3354–3360|doi=10.1175/JCLI3799.1}}</ref>
| + | Another source notes, |
| − | ; [[Cloud feedback]] : Warming is expected to change the distribution and type of clouds. Seen from below, clouds emit infrared radiation back to the surface, and so exert a warming effect; seen from above, clouds reflect sunlight and emit infrared radiation to space, and so exert a cooling effect. Whether the net effect is warming or cooling depends on details such as the [[list of cloud types|type]] and altitude of the cloud, details that are difficult to represent in climate models.<ref name="soden1"/>
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| − | ; [[Lapse rate]] : The atmosphere's temperature decreases with height in the [[troposphere]]. Since emission of infrared radiation varies with the fourth power of temperature, [[longwave radiation]] escaping to space from the relatively cold upper atmosphere is less than that emitted toward the ground from the lower atmosphere. Thus, the strength of the greenhouse effect depends on the atmosphere's rate of temperature decrease with height. Both theory and climate models indicate that global warming will reduce the rate of temperature decrease with height, producing a negative ''lapse rate feedback'' that weakens the greenhouse effect. Measurements of the rate of temperature change with height are very sensitive to small errors in observations, making it difficult to establish whether the models agree with observations.<ref>{{cite book|url=http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=10850|series=Panel on Climate Change Feedbacks, Climate Research Committee|isbn=0309090725|publisher=National Academies Press|author=National Research Council|date=2004|title=Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks}}</ref>
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| − | ; [[Ice-albedo feedback]] : [[File:Sea Ice MeltPonds.png|thumb|Aerial photograph showing a section of sea ice. The lighter blue areas are [[melt ponds]] and the darkest areas are open water, both have a lower albedo than the white sea ice. The melting ice contributes to the [[ice-albedo feedback]].]] When ice melts, land or open water takes its place. Both land and open water are on average less reflective than ice and thus absorb more solar radiation. This causes more warming, which in turn causes more melting, and this cycle continues.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/295.htm|last=Stocker|first=Thomas F.|coauthors=''et al.''|title=7.5.2 Sea Ice|work=Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|accessdate=2007-02-11|date=2001-01-20|publisher=IPCC}}</ref>
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| − | ; [[Arctic methane release]] : Warming is also the triggering variable for the release of methane in the arctic<ref>{{cite doi|10.1029/2009GL039191}}</ref>. Methane released from thawing [[permafrost]] such as the frozen [[peat]] [[bog]]s in [[Siberia]], and from [[methane clathrate]] on the sea floor, creates a [[positive feedback]].<ref>{{cite journal|doi=10.1126/science.1128908|year=2006|month=Jun|author=Zimov, Sa; Schuur, Ea; Chapin, Fs, 3Rd|title=Climate change. Permafrost and the global carbon budget.|volume=312|issue=5780|pages=1612–3|issn=0036-8075|pmid=16778046|journal=Science (New York, N.Y.)}}</ref>
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| − | ; [[Carbon cycle|Reduced absorption of CO<sub>2</sub> by the oceans]] : Ocean ecosystems' ability to sequester carbon is expected to decline as the oceans warm. This is because warming reduces the nutrient levels of the [[mesopelagic zone]] (about 200 to 1000 m deep), which limits the growth of [[diatom]]s in favor of smaller [[phytoplankton]] that are poorer [[biological pump]]s of carbon.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Buesseler|first=Ken O.|coauthors=''et al.''|date=2007-04-27|title=Revisiting Carbon Flux Through the Ocean's Twilight Zone|journal=Science|volume=316|issue=5824|pages=567–570|url=http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/316/5824/567|accessdate=2007-11-16|format=abstract|doi=10.1126/science.1137959|pmid=17463282}}</ref>
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| − | ; Gas release : Release of miscellaneous gases of biological origin may be affected by global warming, but research into such effects is at an early stage. Such releases may have direct climate effects, such as [[Nitrous oxide]]<ref>{{cite doi|10.1038/ngeo434}}</ref> released from [[peat]] and indirect effects, such as [[Dimethyl sulfide]]<ref>{{cite doi|10.1029/2001GB001829}}</ref> released from oceans.
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| − | {{Clear}}
| + | In areas that see extreme cold temperatures, deaths related to colder weather would drop significantly, leading to decreased health care costs. Warmer temperatures would also mean less energy use to heat homes and buildings, helping to conserve energy. With the changes brought about by global warming more land would become available for uses like farming and living. Forests and plants would grow stronger, healthier, and more abundant because of the warmer weather, and this would mean more oxygen being released into the atmosphere.<ref>http://www.bionomicfuel.com/what-are-the-benefits-of-global-warming/</ref> |
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| − | ==Climate models== | + | ==Politics of Global Warming== |
| − | {{Main|Global climate model}} | + | {{main|Politics of global warming}} |
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| − | {{Double image stack|right|Global Warming Predictions.png|Global Warming Predictions Map.jpg|180|Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of [[climate model]]s under the [[Special Report on Emissions Scenarios|SRES]] A2 emissions scenario, which [[Special_Report_on_Emissions_Scenarios#A2|assumes no action is taken to reduce emissions and regionally divided economic development]].|The geographic distribution of surface warming during the 21<sup>st</sup> century calculated by the [[HadCM3]] climate model if a business as usual scenario is assumed for economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure, the globally averaged warming corresponds to 3.0 °C (5.4 °F).}}
| + | Christine Stewart- Canadian Environment Ministry, "'''No matter if the science is all phony''', there are collateral environmental benefits . . . Climate change provides the greatest chance to bring about justice and equality in the world.” <ref>[http://www.aim.org/wls/use-environmentalism-to-change-the-world/ Christine Stewart] Accuracy in Media</ref> |
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| − | The main tools for projecting future climate changes are [[mathematical models]] based on physical principles including [[fluid dynamics]], [[thermodynamics]] and [[radiative transfer]]. Although they attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. All modern climate models are in fact ''combinations'' of models for different parts of the Earth. These include an atmospheric model for air movement, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric properties; an ocean model that predicts temperature, [[salinity|salt content]], and circulation of ocean waters; models for ice cover on land and sea; and a model of heat and moisture transfer from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. Some models also include treatments of chemical and biological processes.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter7.pdf|author=Denman, K.L., et al.|format=PDF|title=Chapter 7, Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry|work=Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|accessdate=2008-02-21|date=2007|publisher=IPCC}}</ref> Warming due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases is not an assumption of the models; rather, it is an end result from the interaction of greenhouse gases with radiative transfer and other physical processes in the models.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://books.google.com/books?id=sx6DFr8rbpIC&dq=robert+lanza&printsec=frontcover&source=web&ots=S7MXYzoDqR&sig=jfUo33FtVZ3PSUS2fcc_EtawEnQ|last=Hansen|first=James|title=Climatic Change: Understanding Global Warming|work=One World: The Health & Survival of the Human Species in the 21st century|accessdate=2007-08-18|year=2000|publisher=Health Press}}</ref> Although much of the variation in model outcomes depends on the greenhouse gas emissions used as inputs, the temperature effect of a specific greenhouse gas concentration ([[climate sensitivity]]) varies depending on the model used. The representation of clouds is one of the main sources of uncertainty in present-generation models.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/271.htm|last=Stocker|first=Thomas F.|coauthors=''et al.''|title=7.2.2 Cloud Processes and Feedbacks|work=Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|accessdate=2007-03-04|date=2001|publisher=IPCC}}</ref>
| + | 'Global Warming Now World's Most Boring Topic’ <ref>http://newsbusters.org/node/14167</ref> |
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| − | Global climate model projections of future climate most often have used estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from the IPCC [[Special Report on Emissions Scenarios]] (SRES). In addition to human-caused emissions, some models also include a simulation of the [[carbon cycle]]; this generally shows a positive feedback, though this response is uncertain. Some observational studies also show a positive feedback.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Torn|first=Margaret|coauthors=Harte, John|date=2006|title=Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|volume=33|issue=10|id=L10703|url=http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2005GL025540.shtml|accessdate=2007-03-04|doi=10.1029/2005GL025540|pages=L10703}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last=Harte|first=John|coauthors=''et al.''|date=2006|title=Shifts in plant dominance control carbon-cycle responses to experimental warming and widespread drought|journal=Environmental Research Letters|volume=1|issue=1|id=014001|url=http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1748-9326/1/1/014001/erl6_1_014001.html|accessdate=2007-05-02|doi=10.1088/1748-9326/1/1/014001|pages=014001}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last=Scheffer|first=Marten|coauthors=''et al.''|title=Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change.|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|volume=33|url=http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~victor/recent/scheffer_etal_T_CO2_GRL_in_press.pdf|doi=10.1029/2005gl025044|date=2006|accessdate=2007-05-04|pages=L10702|format=PDF}}</ref>
| + | The need to fight "global warming" has become part of the dogma of the liberal conscience. <ref name="cato" /> |
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| − | Including uncertainties in future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate sensitivity, the IPCC anticipates a warming of {{nowrap|1.1 °C to 6.4 °C}} {{nowrap|(2.0 °F to 11.5 °F)}} by the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980–1999.<ref name="grida7"/> A 2008 paper predicts that the global temperature may not increase during the next decade because short-term natural fluctuations may temporarily outweigh greenhouse gas-induced warming.<ref>{{cite journal|url=http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7191/abs/nature06921.html|title=Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector|author=N. S. Keenlyside, M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh2, E. Roeckner|date=2008|pages=84–88|journal=Nature|issue=453|accessdate=2008-07-06|doi=10.1038/nature06921|volume=453}}</ref>
| + | Clearly, "global warming" is a tempting issue for many very important groups to exploit. |
| | + | ... dealing with the threat of warming fits in with a great variety of preexisting agendas [like] dissatisfaction with industrial society (neopastoralism), ... governmental desires for enhanced revenues (carbon taxes), and bureaucratic desires for enhanced power. <ref name="cato" /> |
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| − | Models are also used to help investigate the [[Attribution of recent climate change|causes of recent climate change]] by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and human-derived causes. Although these models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.<ref>http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter9.pdf</ref>
| + | If their biased findings are to be believed, the IPCC concluded that the global average surface temperature warmed about 0.6 °F during the 20th Century. <ref>[http://www.answers.com/topic/global-warming Growing Signals of Global Warming] U.S. History Encyclopedia</ref> The IPCC is desperate to claim the 20th century-- the warmest on record. Thus, tying the progress of modern mankind to our supposed planet imbalance problem. Unfortunately for the IPCC, that point is disputed as well. In 2008, it was discovered that tree rings in Finland were more accurate record of the warmest century. The current era was not the warmest period-- it was the period between 931 and 1180. <ref>[http://tbirdnow.mee.nu/archive/2008/6?page=2 The Trees of Finland; Temperature Readings and Historical Reconstruction] Tbirdnow.mee.nu Blog (with links to actual data sources), June 24, 2008</ref> |
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| − | Current climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate.<ref name=spm-2001/> The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf|author=Randall, D.A., et al.|format=PDF|title=Chapter 8, Climate Models and Their Evaluation|work=Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|accessdate=2009-03-21|date=2007|publisher=IPCC}}</ref> While a 2007 study by [[David Douglass]] and colleagues found that the models did not accurately predict observed changes in the tropical [[troposphere]],<ref>{{cite journal|last=Douglass|first=David H.|authorlink=David Douglass|coauthors=''et al.''|date=2007|title=A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions|journal=International Journal of Climatology|volume=9999|issue=9999|doi=10.1002/joc.1651|url=http://icecap.us/images/uploads/DOUGLASPAPER.pdf|format=PDF|accessdate=2008-05-12|pages=1693}}</ref> a 2008 paper published by a 17-member team led by [[Ben Santer]] noted errors in the Douglass study, and found instead that the models and observations were not statistically different.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Santer|first=B.D.|authorlink=Benjamin D. Santer|coauthors=''et al.''|date=2008|title=Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere|journal=International Journal of Climatology|volume=28|issue=13|doi=10.1002/joc.1756|url=https://publicaffairs.llnl.gov/news/news_releases/2008/NR-08-10-05-article.pdf|format=PDF|accessdate=2008-10-22|pages=1703}}</ref> Not all [[effects of global warming]] are accurately predicted by the [[climate models]] used by the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|IPCC]]. For example, observed [[Arctic shrinkage]] has been faster than that predicted.<ref>{{Cite journal|doi=10.1029/2007GL029703|title=Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast|year=2007|author=Stroeve, J., ''et al.''|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|volume=34|pages=L09501}}</ref>
| + | Assessments of climate science by the [[United Nations]] (see [[IPCC]] - ''Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change'') |
| | + | have claimed that scientists are 90% sure that over 50% of the observed global warming in recent decades is human-caused, and that continued global warming should be expected over at least the next century. |
| | | | |
| − | ==Attributed and expected effects==
| + | Several prominent scientists have pointed out the [[politicized science]] of the UN's assessment methods. The scientific reports are submitted to a panel of representatives appointed by each country in the IPCC. Several scientists whose research demonstrates that climate change is taking place have complained about their work being misrepresented by the U.N. |
| − | ===Environmental===
| |
| | | | |
| − | {{Main|Effects of global warming|Regional effects of global warming}}
| + | In addition, a number of the participants have testified to the pressures placed on them to emphasize results supportive of the current scenario and to suppress other results. That pressure has frequently been effective, and a survey of participants reveals substantial disagreement with the final report. <ref name="cato" /> |
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| − | [[File:Glacier Mass Balance.png|thumb|Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since the early 1800s. In the 1950s measurements began that allow the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported to the [[World Glacier Monitoring Service|WGMS]] and the [[National Snow and Ice Data Center|NSIDC]].]]
| + | Richard Lindzen wrote: |
| | + | :Perhaps more important are the pressures being brought to bear on scientists to get the "right" results. Such pressures are inevitable, given how far out on a limb much of the scientific community has gone. The situation is compounded by the fact that some of the strongest proponents of "global warming" in Congress are also among the major supporters of science (Sen. Gore is notable among those). <ref name="cato" /> |
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| − | It usually is impossible to connect specific weather events to global warming. Instead, global warming is expected to cause changes in the overall distribution and intensity of events, such as changes to the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. Broader effects are expected to include [[Glacier mass balance|glacial retreat]], [[Arctic shrinkage]], and worldwide sea level rise. Some effects on both the [[natural environment]] and [[civilization|human life]] are, at least in part, already being attributed to global warming. A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests that [[Retreat of glaciers since 1850|glacier retreat]], [[Ice shelf#Ice shelf disruption|ice shelf disruption]] such as that of the [[Larsen Ice Shelf]], sea level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events are attributable in part to global warming.<ref name="tar_wg2">{{cite web|title=Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|url=http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm|publisher=IPCC|date=2001-02-16|accessdate=2007-03-14}}</ref> Other expected effects include water scarcity in some regions and increased precipitation in others, changes in mountain snowpack, and some adverse health effects from warmer temperatures.<ref>{{cite journal|author=McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S|title=Climate change and human health: present and future risks|journal=Lancet|volume=367|issue=9513|pages=859–69|year=2006|pmid=16530580|doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68079-3}}</ref>
| + | Christopher Monckton wrote an article titled Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered. |
| | + | :States that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change studies are flawed. The present analysis suggests the models failure to predict other climatic phenomena arises from defects in its evaluation of radioactive forcing, no-feedbacks climate sensitivity parameter and feedback multiplier. In conclusion, that there may be no "Climate Crisis" and for governments to reduce emissions may be pointless or even harmful. <ref>http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/monckton.cfm , Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered, July 2008</ref> This was published on a forum of the American Physical Society with the following disclaimer "The article has not undergone any scientific peer review" and "the APS disagrees with the articles conclusions" In fact, the APS disagrees with the article without ever reviewing it. |
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| − | Social and economic effects of global warming may be exacerbated by [[Population growth|growing population]] densities in affected areas. Temperate regions are projected to experience some benefits, such as fewer cold-related deaths.<ref name="WGII SPM AR4">{{cite web|title=Summary for Policymakers|work=Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-spm.pdf|format=PDF|publisher=IPCC|date=2007-04-13|accessdate=2007-04-28}}</ref> A summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be found in the report made for the [[IPCC Third Assessment Report]] by Working Group II.<ref name="tar_wg2"/> The newer [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report]] summary reports that there is observational evidence for an increase in intense [[tropical cyclone]] activity in the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the increase in sea surface temperature (see [[Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation]]), but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated by the quality of records prior to routine satellite observations. The summary also states that there is no clear trend in the annual worldwide number of tropical cyclones.<ref name="grida7"/>
| + | Ryan N. Maue: |
| | + | :A doctoral student at the Department of Meteorology at Florida State University did a study of global tropical cyclone activity. It's conclusions state that global warming might be greatly overblown. <ref>[http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/s_617111.html# Global warming? More doubts] Pittsburgh Tribune, March 21, 2009</ref> Mr. Maue found that tropical cyclone activity worldwide "has completely and utterly collapsed" during the past two to three years with energy levels sinking to those of the late 1970s. |
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| − | Additional anticipated effects include [[sea level rise]] of {{nowrap|0.18 to 0.59 meters}} {{nowrap|(0.59 to 1.9 ft)}} in 2090-2100 relative to 1980-1999,<ref name="grida7"/> [[Northwest Passage|new trade routes]] resulting from arctic shrinkage,<ref>{{cite news|first=Jennifer|last=Macey|title=Global warming opens up Northwest Passage|url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/19/2037198.htm?section=business|publisher=ABC News|date=September 19, 2007|accessdate=2007-12-11}}</ref> [[Shutdown of thermohaline circulation|possible thermohaline circulation slowing]], increasingly intense (but less frequent) hurricanes and extreme weather events,<ref>{{cite journal|doi=10.1038/ngeo202|title=Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions|year=2008|author=Knutson, Thomas R.|journal=Nature Geoscience|volume=1|pages=359}}</ref> reductions in the [[ozone layer]], [[Climate change and agriculture|changes in agriculture yields]], changes in the range of climate-dependent [[Vector (epidemiology)|disease vectors]],<ref name="KingEtAlASM">{{Cite book|last=King|first=Gary M.|coauthors=''et al.''|title=Global Environmental Change Microbial Contributions Microbial Solutions|url=http://www.asm.org/ASM/files/CCPAGECONTENT/DOCFILENAME/0000006005/globalwarming%5B1%5D.pdf|format=PDF|accessdate=2009-05-23|publisher=American Society for Microbiology|pages=7}}</ref> which has been linked to increases in the prevalence of [[malaria]] and [[dengue fever]],<ref name="AR4WG2CH8">{{Cite book|chapter=Chapter 8: Human Health|chapter-url=http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter8.pdf|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm|editor1-first=M.L.|editor1-last=Parry|editor2-first=O.F.|editor2-last=Canziani|editor3-first=J.P.|editor3-last=Palutikof|editor4-first=P.J.|editor4-last=van der Linden|editor5-first=C.E.|editor5-last=Hanson|publisher=Cambridge University Press|author1-first=U.|author1-last=Confalonieri|author2-first=B.|author2-last=Menne|author3-first=R.|author3-last=Ebi|author4-first=K.L.|author5-first=M.|author5-last=Hauengue|author6-first=R.S.|author6-last=Kovats|author7-first=B.|author7-last=Revich|author8-first=A.|author8-last=Woodward|year=2007|title=Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|isbn=978-0521-88010-7}}</ref> and ocean oxygen depletion.<ref>{{cite journal|author=Shaffer, G., S.M. Olsen and G.O.P Pederson|year=2009|title=Long-term ocean oxygen depletion in response to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels|journal=Nature Geoscience|volume=2|pages=105–109|doi=10.1038/ngeo420}}</ref> Increased atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> increases the amount of CO<sub>2</sub> dissolved in the [[ocean]]s.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://nasascience.nasa.gov/earth-science/oceanography/ocean-earth-system/ocean-carbon-cycle|title=Carbon Cycle|accessdate=2009-06-24|work=NASA}}</ref> CO<sub>2</sub> dissolved in the ocean reacts with water to form [[carbonic acid]], resulting in [[ocean acidification]]. Ocean surface [[pH]] is estimated to have decreased from 8.25 near the beginning of the industrial era to 8.14 by 2004,<ref>{{cite journal|last=Jacobson|first=Mark Z.|date=2005-04-02|title=Studying ocean acidification with conservative, stable numerical schemes for nonequilibrium air-ocean exchange and ocean equilibrium chemistry|journal=Journal of Geophysical Research|volume=110|issue=D7|id=D07302|url=http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/2004JD005220.pdf|format=PDF|doi=10.1029/2004JD005220|accessdate=2007-04-28|pages=D07302}}</ref> and is projected to decrease by a further 0.14 to 0.5 units by 2100 as the ocean absorbs more CO<sub>2</sub>.<ref name="grida7"/><ref>{{cite journal|last=Caldeira|first=Ken|coauthors=Wickett, Michael E.|title=Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean|journal=Journal of Geophysical Research|volume=110|issue=C09S04|doi=10.1029/2004JC002671|pages=1–12|url=http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2005/2004JC002671.shtml|date=2005-09-21|accessdate=2006-02-14}}</ref> Heat and carbon dioxide trapped in the oceans may still take hundreds years to be re-emitted, even after greenhouse gas emissions are eventually reduced.<ref name=solomon-2009/> Since [[organism]]s and [[ecosystems]] are adapted to a narrow range of [[pH]], this raises [[extinction]] concerns and disruptions in [[food webs]].<ref>{{cite paper|author=Raven, John A.; ''et al.''|title=Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide|publisher=Royal Society|date=2005-06-30|url=http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/displaypagedoc.asp?id=13314|format=ASP|accessdate=2007-05-04}}</ref> One study predicts 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103 animal and plant species would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate projections.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Thomas|first=Chris D.|coauthors=''et al.''|date=2004-01-08|title=Extinction risk from climate change|journal=Nature|volume=427|issue=6970|pages=145–138|doi=10.1038/nature02121|url=http://www.geog.umd.edu/resac/outgoing/GEOG442%20Fall%202005/Lecture%20materials/extinctions%20and%20climate%20change.pdf|format=PDF|accessdate=2007-03-18}}</ref> However, few mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change,<ref>{{cite journal|last=McLaughlin|first=John F.|coauthors=''et al.''|date=2002-04-30|title=Climate change hastens population extinctions|journal=PNAS|volume=99|issue=9|pages=6070–6074|doi=10.1073/pnas.052131199|url=http://www.nd.edu/~hellmann/pnas.pdf|format=PDF|accessdate=2007-03-29|pmid=11972020}}</ref> and one study suggests that projected rates of [[Extinction risk from climate change|extinction]] are uncertain.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Botkin|first=Daniel B.|coauthors=''et al.''|year=2007|month=March|title=Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity|journal=BioScience|volume=57|issue=3|pages=227–236|doi=10.1641/B570306|url=http://www.imv.dk/Admin/Public/DWSDownload.aspx?File=%2FFiles%2FFiler%2FIMV%2FPublikationer%2FFagartikler%2F2007%2F050307_Botkin_et_al.pdf|accessdate=2007-11-30|format=PDF}}</ref>
| + | Dr. Vincent Gray: |
| | + | :A member of the IPCC’s expert reviewers’ panel asserts, “There is no relationship between warming and the level of gases in the atmosphere,” and "there is no serious threat to the climate" <ref>[http://americanfreedomnow.com/2009/06/04/the-panic-over-global-warming-is-totally-unjustified-says-vice-chair-ipcc/ “THE PANIC OVER GLOBAL WARMING IS TOTALLY UNJUSTIFIED” says Vice Chair, IPCC] Americanfreedomnow.com, June 4th, 2009</ref> |
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| − | The [[Tibetan Plateau]] contains the world's third-largest store of ice. Qin Dahe, the former head of the China Meteorological Administration, said that the recent fast pace of melting and warmer temperatures will be good for agriculture and tourism in the short term; but issued a strong warning: | + | Joe D’Aleo: Climatologist |
| | + | :The International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project says new data "show that in five of the last seven decades since World War II, including this one, global temperatures have cooled while carbon dioxide has continued to rise," and "'''The data suggest cooling''', not warming, in Earth's future." <ref>[http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=92557 Shocker: 'Global warming' simply no longer happening] Worldnetdaily, March 22, 2009</ref> |
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| − | <blockquote><p>"Temperatures are rising four times faster than elsewhere in China, and the Tibetan glaciers are retreating at a higher speed than in any other part of the world." "In the short term, this will cause lakes to expand and bring floods and mudflows." "In the long run, the glaciers are vital lifelines for Asian rivers, including the [[Indus]] and the [[Ganges]]. Once they vanish, water supplies in those regions will be in peril."<ref>[http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g1eE4Xw3njaW1MKpJRYOch4hOdLQ Global warming benefits to Tibet: Chinese official. Reported 18/Aug/2009.]</ref></p></blockquote>
| + | Dr. John S. Theon: |
| | + | :Retired senior NASA atmospheric [[scientist]], Dr. John S. Theon, the former boss of global warming alarmist James Hansen of [[NASA]], rebukes him declaring “climate models are useless.” “My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit,” “Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results." <ref>[http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2009/01/28/former-boss-rebukes-nasa-global-warming-alarmist-hansen-agw-skeptic Former Boss Rebukes NASA Global Warming Alarmist Hansen, Is AGW Skeptic] NewsBusters.org, January 28, 2009 </ref> |
| | | | |
| − | {{clear}}
| + | Sammy Wilson -Ireland's environment minister |
| | + | :He argues that global weather patterns are naturally cooling, not warming. He calls television ads that promote global warming as "an insidious propaganda campaign" peddling "patent nonsense." <ref>[http://www.cnsnews.com/public/content/article.aspx?RsrcID=43255 Belfast Environment Chief Bans Climate Change Ads] AP, February 09, 2009</ref> |
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| − | ===Economic=== | + | After the broadcast of his movie '[[The Great Global Warming Swindle]]', filmmaker Martin Durkin's statements read <ref>[http://www.cnsnews.com/public/content/article.aspx?RsrcID=32796 UK Broadcaster Scolded for Film on Global Warming] CNSNEWS July 22, 2008</ref> |
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| − | {{Main|Economics of global warming|Low-carbon economy}}
| + | *“Everywhere you are told that man-made [[climate change]] is proved beyond doubt,” “But you are being told lies.” |
| | + | *“This is a story of how a theory about climate turned into a political [[ideology]] ... it is the story of the distortion of a whole area of [[science]].” |
| | + | *“as the frenzy over man-made [[global warming]] grows shriller, many senior scientists say the actual scientific basis for the [[theory]] is crumbling.” |
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| − | [[File:IPCC AR4 WGIII GHG concentration stabilization levels.png|thumb|Projected temperature increase for a range of stabilization scenarios (the colored bands). The black line in middle of the shaded area indicates 'best estimates'; the red and the blue lines the likely limits. From [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|IPCC AR4]].]] | + | In late 2008, the [[AP]] published an article by its Science Writer Seth Borenstein, which is seen by skeptics as another example of one-sided, uncritical reporting on the issue by [[liberal media]]. The report stated that global warming was "a ticking time bomb that President-elect Barack Obama can't avoid", and that "We're out of time", with Al Gore calling the situation "the equivalent of a five-alarm fire that has to be addressed immediately."<ref>http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D952LKOO1&show_article=1</ref> In response, Fox New (December 16, 2008) reported that scientists skeptical of anthropogenic global warming criticized the report as "irrational hysteria," "horrifically bad" and "incredibly biased", containing containing sweeping scientific errors and being a one-sided portrayal of a complicated issue. Geology professor [[David Deming]] stated, "If the issues weren't so serious and the ramifications so profound, I would have to laugh at it", and accused Borenstein of "writing a polemic and reporting it as fact." Deming noted that "the mean global temperature, at least as measured by satellite, is now the same as it was in the year 1980. In the last couple of years sea level has stopped rising. Hurricane and cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere is at a 24-year low and sea ice globally is also the same as it was in 1980." The AP responded to criticism by stating that, "It’s a news story, based on fact and the clearly expressed views of President-elect Barack Obama and others."<ref>[http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,468084,00.html Scientists Call AP Report on Global Warming 'Hysteria'] Fox News, December 16, 2008</ref> |
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| − | The IPCC reports the [[aggregate data|aggregate]] net economic costs of damages from climate change globally ([[social discount rate|discounted]] to the specified year). In 2005, the average [[social cost of carbon]] from 100 [[peer-review]]ed estimates is US$12 per tonne of CO<sub>2</sub>, but range -$3 to $95/tCO<sub>2</sub>. The IPCC's gives these cost estimates with the caveats, "Aggregate estimates of costs mask significant differences in impacts across sectors, regions and populations and ''very likely'' underestimate damage costs because they cannot include many non-quantifiable impacts."<ref name=ipccsr>{{cite web|date=2007|title=Summary for Policymakers|work=Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|author=Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_frontmatter.pdf|accessdate=2009-05-20|page=22}}</ref>
| + | Also in the discussion of the biased AP report, Michael R. Fox, a retired nuclear scientist and chemistry professor from the University of Idaho stated, "There is little evidence to believe that man-made carbon dioxide is causing temperature fluctuation. Other factors, including sun spots, solar winds, variations in the solar magnetic field and solar irradiation, could all be affecting temperature changes." |
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| − | One widely publicized report on potential economic impact is the [[Stern Review]], written by Sir [[Nicholas Stern]]. It suggests that [[extreme weather]] might reduce global [[gross domestic product]] by up to one percent, and that in a worst-case scenario global per capita consumption could fall by the equivalent of 20 percent.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6098362.stm|title=At-a-glance: The Stern Review|publisher=BBC|accessdate=2007-04-29|date=2006-10-30}}</ref> The response to the Stern Review was mixed. The Review's methodology, advocacy and conclusions were criticized by several economists, including [[Richard Tol]], [[Gary Yohe]],<ref>{{cite journal|author=Tol, R. and G. Yohe|date=2006|title=A Review of the Stern Review|journal=World Economics|volume=7|issue=4|pages=233–250|url=http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/tol/RM551.pdf}}</ref> [[Robert O. Mendelsohn|Robert Mendelsohn]]<ref name=mendelsohnr>{{cite web|date=2006-2007|title=A Critique of the Stern Report|publisher=Regulation|author=Mendelsohn, R.|url=http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv29n4/v29n4-5.pdf|accessdate=2009-05-20}}</ref> and [[William Nordhaus]].<ref name=yale>{{cite web|date=2005|title=The Economics of Climate Change, Part Two: Comments on the Stern Review. Chapter 5: William Nordhaus, Yale University, 'Opposite Ends of the Globe'|publisher=[[Yale University|Yale]] Center for the Study of Globalization|author=Nordhaus, W.|url=http://www.ycsg.yale.edu/climate/|accessdate=2009-05-20}}</ref> Economists that have generally supported the Review include Terry Barker,<ref name=barkert>{{cite journal|date=August 2008|title=The economics of avoiding dangerous climate change. An editorial essay on The Stern Review|author=Barker, T.|journal=Climatic Change|volume=89|doi=10.1007/s10584-008-9433-x|issue=Volume 89, Numbers 3-4 / August, 2008|pages=173-194|url=http://www.springerlink.com/content/612k4k5v68r2577m/?p=20cde4d2d12e41939a4faac4082d8512&pi=0|accessdate=2009-05-20}}</ref> William Cline,<ref name=clinew>{{cite web|date=January 5, 2008|title=Comments on the Stern Review|publisher=Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics|author=Cline, W.|url=http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/paper.cfm?ResearchID=874|accessdate=2009-05-20}}</ref> and [[Frank Ackerman]].<ref name=ackermanf>{{cite web|date=July 2007|title=Debating Climate Economics: The Stern Review vs. Its Critics|publisher=Report to [[Friends of the Earth]]-UK|author=Ackerman, F.|url=http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/rp/SternDebateReport.pdf|accessdate=2009-05-20}}</ref> According to Barker, the costs of mitigating climate change are 'insignificant' relative to the risks of unmitigated climate change.<ref>{{web cite|url=http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/38c1bfa0-09bd-11dd-81bf-0000779fd2ac.html|title=Full quote from IPCC on costs of climate change|author=Terry Barker|date=April 14, 2008|accessdate=2008-04-14|publisher=FT.com}}</ref>
| + | The year 2008 turned out to be the coolest year since 2000, yet the seventh to tenth warmest year on record, according to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.<ref>http://news.eoportal.org/research/090127_res3.html</ref> According to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, the average June-August 2009 summer temperature for the contiguous United States was below average – the 34th coolest on record.<ref>[http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090910_summerstats.html NOAA: Summer Temperature Below Average for U.S.]</ref> |
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| − | According to [[United Nations Environment Programme]] (UNEP), economic sectors likely to face difficulties related to climate change include [[bank]]s, [[Climate change and agriculture|agriculture]], transport and others.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.unepfi.org/fileadmin/documents/CEO_briefing_climate_change_2002_en.pdf|format=PDF|title=Climate Risk to Global Economy|last=Dlugolecki|first=Andrew|coauthors=''et al.''|work=CEO Briefing: UNEP FI Climate Change Working Group|publisher=United Nations Environment Programme|accessdate=2007-04-29|year=2002}}</ref> Developing countries dependent upon agriculture will be particularly harmed by global warming.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.rff.org/Publications/Resources/Documents/164/RFF-Resources-164_Thomas%20Schelling.pdf|title=Thomas Schelling: Developing Countries Will Suffer Most from Global Warming|accessdate=2008-03-01|work=Resources 164|format=PDF}}</ref>
| + | Richard S. Courtney, a U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) expert reviewer and a U.K.-based climate and atmospheric science consultant says "Rubbish! Global warming is not 'accelerating," and "...that anybody who proclaims that 'Global warming is accelerating' is a liar, a fool, or both." <ref>[http://www.newsmax.com/brennan/global_warming_debunked/2008/12/16/162489.html Global Warming’s Last Gasp] NewsMax, December 17, 2008</ref> |
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| − | {{Clear}}
| + | Don J. Easterbrook, Ph.D., emeritus professor of geology at Western Washington University, asked, "What does it take to ignore 10 years of global cooling....? The answer is really quite simple — just follow the money!" |
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| − | ==Responses to global warming== | + | ==Al Gore's Claims== |
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| − | The [[Scientific opinion on climate change|broad agreement]] among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to increase has led some [[nation]]s, [[State (law)|states]], [[corporation]]s and individuals to implement responses. These responses to global warming can be divided into [[Mitigation of global warming|mitigation]] of the causes and effects of global warming, [[Adaptation to global warming|adaptation]] to the changing global environment, and [[geoengineering]] to reverse global warming. | + | The decision by the government to distribute Al Gore's film, ''An Inconvenient Truth'', became the subject of a legal challenge by [[New Party]] member Stewart Dimmock. A school governor from Dover and father of two, Dimmock charged the Government with brainwashing children with propaganda by presenting Gore’s sci-fi film as science. In October 2007, Mr Justice Burton of London's High Court found that while the film was "broadly accurate", it contained nine significant errors,“in which statements were made that were not supported by the current mainstream scientific consensus”, some of which had arisen in “the context of alarmism and exaggeration”. He also found the Guidance Notes drafted by the Education Secretary’s advisers only worked to exacerbate the political propaganda in the film.<ref>[http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/07/clearly_its_al_gore_whos_in_de.html American Thinker; ''Clearly It's Al Gore Who's In Denial'']</ref><ref>Times online, October 11, 2007 ''Al Gore’s inconvenient judgment''</ref> |
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| − | ===Mitigation===
| + | Taken from the official transcript,<ref>[http://noteviljustwrong.com/images/nejw/docs/22161.pdf Stuart Dimmock and Secretary of State for Education and Skills]</ref> the nine errors the judge found were: |
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| − | {{Main|Mitigation of global warming}}
| + | *1. Sea level rise of up to 20 feet (7 metres) will be caused by melting of either West Antarctica or Greenland in the near future. This is distinctly alarmist, and part of Mr Gore's 'wake-up call'. It is common ground that if indeed Greenland melted, it would release this amount of water, but only after, and over, millennia, so that the Armageddon scenario he predicts, insofar as it suggests that sea level rises of 7 metres might occur in the immediate future, is not in line with the scientific consensus. |
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| − | [[File:Carbon sequestration-2009-10-07.svg|thumb|[[Carbon capture and storage]] (CCS) is an approach to mitigation. Emissions may be [[Carbon sequestration|sequestered]] from fossil fuel power plants, or removed during processing in hydrogen production. When used on plants, it is known as [[bio-energy with carbon capture and storage]].]]
| + | *2. Low lying inhabited Pacific atolls are being inundated because of anthropogenic global warming. In scene 20, Mr Gore states "that's why the citizens of these Pacific nations have all had to evacuate to New Zealand". There is no evidence of any such evacuation having yet happened. |
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| − | Mitigation of global warming is accomplished through reductions in the rate of anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. Models suggest that mitigation can quickly begin to slow global warming, but that temperatures will appreciably decrease only after several centuries.<ref>{{cite doi|10.1088/1748-9326/4/1/014012}}</ref> The world's primary international agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the [[Kyoto Protocol]], an amendment to the [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|UNFCCC]] negotiated in 1997. The Protocol now covers more than 160 countries and over 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/kpstats.pdf|format=PDF|title=Kyoto Protocol Status of Ratification|publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|date=2006-07-10|accessdate=2007-04-27}}</ref> As of June 2009, only the [[United States]], historically the world's [[greenhouse gas emissions by the United States|largest emitter]] of greenhouse gases, has [[List of Kyoto Protocol signatories|refused to ratify the treaty]]. The treaty expires in 2012. International talks began in May 2007 on a future treaty to succeed the current one.<ref>{{cite web|title=Twenty-sixth session and Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG), Third session|url=http://unfccc.int/meetings/sb26/items/3919.php|publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|accessdate=2009-06-21}}</ref> UN negotiations are now gathering pace in advance of a [[2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference|meeting in Copenhagen]] in December 2009.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c|quote=The poll comes as UN negotiations to agree a new global treaty to regulate carbon pollution gather pace in advance of a key meeting in Copenhagen in December. Officials will try to agree a successor to the Kyoto protocol, the first phase of which expires in 2012.|title=World will not meet 2C warming target, climate change experts agree|publisher=Guardian News and Media Limited|last=Adam|first=David|date=14 April 2009|accessdate=2009-04-14}}</ref>
| + | *3. Shutting down of the "Ocean Conveyor". According to the IPCC, it is very unlikely that the Ocean Conveyor (known technically as the Meridional Overturning Circulation or thermohaline circulation) will shut down in the future, though it is considered likely that thermohaline circulation may slow down. |
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| − | Many environmental groups encourage [[Individual and political action on climate change|individual action]] against global warming, as well as community and regional actions. Others have suggested a [[quota]] on worldwide fossil fuel production, citing a direct link between fossil fuel production and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.<ref>{{cite web|title=Climate Control: a proposal for controlling global greenhouse gas emissions|publisher=Sustento Institute|url=http://sustento.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/climate-control.pdf|format=PDF|accessdate=2007-12-10}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Rigged - The climate talks are a stitch-up, as no one is talking about supply.|first=George|last=Monbiot|url=http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2007/12/11/rigged/|accessdate=2007-12-22}}</ref>
| + | *4. Direct coincidence between rise in CO2 in the atmosphere and in temperature, by reference to two graphs. In scenes 8 and 9, Mr Gore shows two graphs relating to a period of 650,000 years, one showing rise in CO2 and one showing rise in temperature, and asserts (by ridiculing the opposite view) that they show an exact fit. Although there is general scientific agreement that there is a connection, the two graphs do not establish what Mr Gore asserts. |
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| − | There has also been [[business action on climate change]], including efforts to improve energy efficiency and limited moves towards use of [[alternative fuels]]. In January 2005 the European Union introduced its [[European Union Emission Trading Scheme]], through which companies in conjunction with government agree to cap their emissions or to purchase credits from those below their allowances. Australia announced its [[Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme]] in 2008. United States President [[Barack Obama]] has announced plans to introduce an economy-wide [[cap and trade]] scheme.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/newenergy|title=Barack Obama and Joe Biden: New Energy for America|accessdate=2008-12-19}}</ref>
| + | *5. The snows of Kilimanjaro. The film asserted that melting snows on Mount Kilimanjaro evidenced global warming. The Government's expert was had to admit that this is not correct. Mr Gore asserts in scene 7 that the disappearance of snow on Mt Kilimanjaro is expressly attributable to global warming. It is noteworthy that this is a point that specifically impressed Mr Milliband (see the press release quoted at paragraph 6 above). However, it is common ground that, the scientific consensus is that it cannot be established that the recession of snows on Mt Kilimanjaro is mainly attributable to human-induced climate change. |
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| − | The IPCC's Working Group III is responsible for crafting reports on mitigation of global warming and the costs and benefits of different approaches. The 2007 [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report]] concludes that no one technology or sector can be completely responsible for mitigating future warming. They find there are key practices and technologies in various sectors, such as [[energy supply]], [[transport]]ation, [[industry]], and [[agriculture]], that should be implemented to reduced global emissions. They estimate that stabilization of [[carbon dioxide equivalent]] between 445 and 710 ppm by 2030 will result in between a 0.6 percent increase and three percent decrease in global [[gross domestic product]].<ref name="IPCCAR4WG3SPM">{{cite web|url=http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf|format=PDF|title=Summary for Policymakers|work=Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|date=2007-05-04|accessdate=2007-12-09}}</ref> | + | *6. Lake Chad etc. The drying up of Lake Chad is used as a prime example of a catastrophic result of global warming. However, it is generally accepted that the evidence remains insufficient to establish such an attribution. It is apparently considered to be far more likely to result from other factors, such as population increase and over-grazing, and regional climate variability. |
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| − | ===Adaptation===
| + | *7. Hurricane Katrina. In scene 12 Hurricane Katrina and the consequent devastation in New Orleans is ascribed to global warming. It is common ground that there is insufficient evidence to show that. |
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| − | {{Main|Adaptation to global warming}}
| + | *8. Death of polar bears. In scene 16, by reference to a dramatic graphic of a polar bear desperately swimming through the water looking for ice, Mr Gore says: "A new scientific study shows that for the first time they are finding polar bears that have actually drowned swimming long distances up to 60 miles to find the ice. They did not find that before." The only scientific study that either side before me can find is one which indicates that four polar bears have recently been found drowned because of a storm. |
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| − | A wide variety of measures have been suggested for [[adaptation to global warming]]. These measures range from the trivial, such as the installation of [[air-conditioning]] equipment, to major [[infrastructure]] projects, such as abandoning settlements threatened by [[sea level rise]].
| + | *9. Coral reefs. In scene 19, Mr Gore says: "Coral reefs all over the world because of global warming and other factors are bleaching and they end up like this. All the fish species that depend on the coral reef are also in jeopardy as a result. Overall specie loss is now occurring at a rate 1000 times greater than the natural background rate." The actual scientific view, as recorded in the IPCC report, is that, if the temperature were to rise by 1-3 degrees Centigrade, there would be increased coral bleaching and widespread coral mortality, unless corals could adopt or acclimatise, but that separating the impacts of climate change-related stresses from other stresses, such as over-fishing and polluting, is difficult. |
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| | + | Dimmock's lawyer, Mr. Downes, argued that by schools making available such film to its teachers, and if teachers then showed such film to their pupils, then this would inevitably result "in the promotion of partisan political views in the teaching of any subject in the school, which is thus not only not being forbidden by the local education authority (and the DES), but being positively facilitated by them." |
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| − | Measures including [[water conservation]],<ref>{{cite journal|author=Boland, John J.|year=1997|title=Assessing Urban Water Use and the Role of Water Conservation Measures under Climate Uncertainty|journal=Climatic Change|volume=37|issue=1|pages=157–176|doi=10.1023/A:1005324621274}}</ref> [[Outdoor water-use restriction|water rationing]], adaptive agricultural practices,<ref>{{cite journal|author=Adams, R.M., ''et al.''|year=1990|title=Global climate change and US agriculture|journal=Nature|volume=345|pages=219|doi=10.1038/345219a0}}</ref> construction of [[flood defences]],<ref>{{Cite journal|doi=10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.007|title=Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios|year=2004|author=Nicholls, R|journal=Global Environmental Change|volume=14|pages=69}}</ref> [[Colonization of Mars|Martian colonization]],<ref>Lovelock, James and Allaby, Michael, "''The Greening of Mars''" 1984</ref> changes to medical care,<ref>{{Cite journal|doi=10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.009|title=Climate change and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios|year=2004|author=Vanlieshout, M, R.S. Kovats, M.T.J. Livermore and P. Martens|journal=Global Environmental Change|volume=14|pages=87}}</ref> and interventions to protect [[Extinction risk from climate change|threatened species]]<ref>{{cite journal|author=Hulme, P.E.|year=2005|title=Adapting to climate change: is there scope for ecological management in the face of a global threat?|journal=Journal of Applied Ecology|volume=42|issue=5|pages=784|doi=10.1111/j.1365-2664.2005.01082.x}}</ref> have all been suggested. A wide-ranging study of the possible opportunities for adaptation of infrastructure has been published by the [[Institute of Mechanical Engineers]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.imeche.org/NR/rdonlyres/FA401F02-3193-4A19-826A-3FEEFB89DEDE/0/ClimateChangeAdaptationReportIMechE.pdf|title=Climate Change: Adapting to the inevitable|publisher=IMechE|accessdate=2009-03-07}}</ref>
| + | Mr Justice Barton stressed that the “apocalyptic vision” presented in the film was politically partisan and not an impartial analysis of the science of climate change. “It is now common ground that it is not simply a science film – although it is clear that it is based substantially on scientific research and opinion – but that it is a political film. |
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| − | ===Geoengineering===
| + | Justice Barton also stated that, “I conclude that the claimant substantially won this case by virtue of my finding that, but for the new guidance note, the film would have been distributed in breach of sections 406 and 407 of the 1996 Education Act.”<ref> BBC news, Thursday, 11 October 2007</ref> |
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| − | {{Main|Geoengineering}}
| + | In order for the film to be shown, the Government must first amend their Guidance Notes to Teachers to make clear that |
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| − | Geoengineering is the deliberate modification of Earth's [[natural environment]] on a large scale to suit human needs.<ref>{{cite web|quote=...a controversial field known as geoengineering, which means rearranging the Earth's environment on a large scale to suit human needs and promote habitability|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/27/science/earth/27cool.html?ex=1151985600&en=ca9e39a26d7e4ece&ei=5065&partner=MYWAY|title=How to Cool a Planet (Maybe)|work=New York Times|date=27 June 2006|accessdate=10 March 2009|author=William J. Broad}}</ref> An example is [[greenhouse gas remediation]], which removes greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, usually through [[carbon sequestration]] techniques such as [[carbon dioxide air capture]].<ref>{{Cite journal|doi=10.1007/s10584-005-9026-x|title=Climate Strategy with CO<sub>2</sub> Capture from the Air|year=2006|author=Keith, D.W., M. Ha-Duong and J.K. Stolaroff|journal=Climatic Change|volume=74|pages=17}}</ref> [[Solar radiation management]] reduces [[insolation]], such as by the addition of [[stratospheric sulfur aerosols (geoengineering)|stratospheric sulfur aerosols]].<ref>{{Cite journal|doi=10.1007/s10584-006-9101-y|title=Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution to Resolve a Policy Dilemma?|year=2006|author=Crutzen, Paul J.|journal=Climatic Change|volume=77|pages=211}}</ref> No large-scale geoengineering projects have yet been undertaken.
| + | *1. The Film is a political work and promotes only one side of the argument. |
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| − | ==Debate and skepticism==
| + | *2. If teachers present the Film without making this plain they may be in breach of section 406 of the Education Act 1996 and guilty of political indoctrination. |
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| − | {{Main|Global warming controversy|Politics of global warming}}
| + | *3. Nine inaccuracies have to be specifically drawn to the attention of school children.<ref>http://www.newparty.co.uk/articles/inaccuracies-gore.html</ref> |
| − | {{See also|Scientific opinion on climate change|Climate change denial}}
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| − | {{Double image stack|right|GHG per capita 2000.svg|GHG by country 2000.svg|180|Per capita greenhouse gas emissions in 2000, including [[Land use, land-use change and forestry|land-use change]].|Per country [[greenhouse gas]] emissions in 2000, including land-use change.}}
| + | Science and Public Policy took issue with the response to the ruling by Al Gore’s spokesman and environment adviser, and asserted that his film contains ''35 Inconvenient Truths''.<ref>[http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/monckton/goreerrors.html 35 Inconvenient Truths]</ref> |
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| − | Increased publicity of the scientific findings surrounding global warming has resulted in political and economic debate.<ref>{{Cite book|first=Spencer|last=Weart|author-link=Spencer R. Weart|contribution=The Public and Climate Change|contribution-url=http://www.aip.org/history/climate/Public.htm|title=The Discovery of Global Warming|editor-first=Spencer|editor-last=Weart|editor-link=Spencer R. Weart|url=http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html|publisher=American Institute of Physics|year=2006|access-date=2007-04-14}}</ref> Poor regions, particularly Africa, appear at greatest risk from the projected effects of global warming, while their emissions have been small compared to the developed world.<ref>{{cite news|title=Poor Nations to Bear Brunt as World Warms|first=Andrew|last=Revkin|date=2007-04-01|publisher=The New York Times|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/01/science/earth/01climate.html?ex=1333080000&en=6c687d64add0b7ba&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss|accessdate=2007-05-02}}</ref> The exemption of [[developing country|developing countries]] from [[Kyoto Protocol]] restrictions has been used to rationalize non-ratification by the U.S. and criticism from Australia.<ref>{{cite web|title=China's emissions may surpass the US in 2007|first=Catherine|last=Brahic|date=2006-04-25|publisher=New Scientist|url=http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn11707-chinas-emissions-to-surpass-the-us-within-months.html|accessdate=2007-05-02}}</ref> Another point of contention is the degree to which [[Newly industrialized country|emerging economies]] such as India and China should be expected to constrain their emissions.<ref>{{citenews|title=US envoy says China wants top line US technology in exchange for reining in CO2 emissions|first=Arthur|last=Max|url=http://www.startribune.com/world/47783247.html?elr=KArks7PYDiaK7DUjyDD:_HP5P:QUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU|agency=Associated Press|work=Star Tribune|accessdate=2009-06-26}}</ref> The U.S. contends that if it must bear the cost of reducing emissions, then China should do the same<ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6610653.stm|title=Chinese object to climate draft|date=2008-05-01|publisher=BBC|accessdate=2009-05-21}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/05/AR2007060502546.html|title=In Battle for U.S. Carbon Caps, Eyes and Efforts Focus on China|last=Mufson|first=Steven|date=2007-06-06|publisher=The Washington Post|accessdate=2009-05-21}}</ref> since China's [[List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions|gross national CO<sub>2</sub> emissions]] now exceed those of the U.S.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7347638.stm|title=China now top carbon polluter|publisher=BBC News|date=2008-04-14|accessdate=2008-04-22}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2007-06-20-124188869_x.htm|title=Group: China tops world in CO2 emissions|agency=Associated Press|work=USA Today|date=2007-06-20|accessdate=2007-10-16}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.livemint.com/2007/06/20235536/China-surpassed-US-in-carbon-e.html|title=Group: China surpassed US in carbon emissions in 2006: Dutch report|agency=Reuters|work=livemint.com|date=2007-06-20|accessdate=2007-10-16}}</ref> China has contended that it is less obligated to reduce emissions since its per capita responsibility and [[List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions per capita|per capita emissions]] are less that of the U.S.<ref>{{cite web|last=Casey|first=Michael|title=China Says West Should Deal With Warming|publisher=Newsvine|date=2007-12-07|url=http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2007/12/07/1147788-china-says-west-should-deal-with-warming|accessdate=2009-06-06}}</ref> India, also exempt, has made similar contentions.<ref>{{citeweb|author=IANS|title=India can’t be exempt from mandatory greenhouse gas emission cap: John Kerry|url=http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/uncategorized/india-cant-be-exempt-from-mandatory-greenhouse-gas-emission-cap-john-kerry_100151668.html|publisher=Thaindian.com|date=2009-02-05|accessdate=2009-06-24}}</ref>
| + | Related to above, while Gore claims that Himalayan glaciers are shrinking and global warming is to blame, the September 2006 issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate reported, |
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| − | In 2007-2008 the [[Gallup Poll]]s surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the world's population were unaware of global warming, developing countries less aware than [[Developed country|developed]], and Africa the least aware. Awareness does not equate to belief that global warming is a result of human activities. Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result of human activities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the opposite.<ref>{{cite web|first=Brett|last=Pelham|title=Awareness, Opinions About Global Warming Vary Worldwide|url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/117772/Awareness-Opinions-Global-Warming-Vary-Worldwide.aspx|publisher=Gallup|date=2009-04-22|accessdate=2009-07-14}}</ref> In the western world, the concept and the appropriate responses are contested. Nick Pidgeon of [[Cardiff University]] finds that "results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each side of the Atlantic" where Europe debates the appropriate responses while the United States debates whether climate change is happening.<ref name="pewpoll">{{cite web|title=Summary of Findings|work=Little Consensus on Global Warming. Partisanship Drives Opinion|publisher=Pew Research Center|date=2006-07-12|accessdate=2007-04-14|url=http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=280}}</ref>
| + | :Glaciers are growing in the Himalayan Mountains, confounding global warming alarmists who recently claimed the glaciers were shrinking and that global warming was to blame." <ref name="sun">http://www.suntimes.com/news/otherviews/450392,CST-EDT-REF30b.article</ref> |
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| − | Debates weigh the benefits of limiting [[industrial process|industrial]] [[Air pollution|emissions]] of greenhouse gases against the [[Economics of global warming|costs]] that such changes would entail.<ref name="IPCCAR4WG3SPM"/> Using [[Emissions trading|economic incentives]], alternative and renewable energy have been promoted to reduce emissions while building infrastructure.<ref>{{cite news|title=Breaking the Climate Deadlock|first=Tony|last=Blair|url=http://www.kosovotimes.net/project-syndicate/708-breaking-the-climate-deadlock.html|publisher=Kosovo Times|date=2009-07-03|accessdate=2009-07-03}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Energy bill causing some tension among U.S. officials|first=Holly|last=Richards|url=http://www.coshoctontribune.com/article/20090702/NEWS01/907020302|publisher=Coshocton Tribune|date=2009-07-02|accessdate=2009-07-03}}</ref> Business-centered organizations such as the [[Competitive Enterprise Institute]], conservative commentators, and companies such as [[ExxonMobil]] have downplayed IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the [[Scientific opinion on climate change|scientific consensus]], and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.<ref>{{cite news|last=Begley|first=Sharon|title=The Truth About Denial|publisher=Newsweek|date=2007-08-13|url=http://www.newsweek.com/id/32482|accessdate=2007-08-13}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial|url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/sep/20/oilandpetrol.business|first=David|last=Adams|publisher=The Guardian|date=2006-09-20|accessdate=2007-08-09}}</ref><ref name="MSNBC 01-12">{{cite news|title=Exxon cuts ties to global warming skeptics|url=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16593606|publisher=MSNBC|date=2007-01-12|accessdate=2007-05-02}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Report: Big Money Confusing Public on Global Warming|url=http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Business/story?id=2767979&page=1|last=Sandell|first=Clayton|publisher=ABC|date=2007-01-03|accessdate=2007-04-27}}</ref> Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the current climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.<ref>{{cite press release|title=New Report Provides Authoritative Assessment of National, Regional Impacts of Global Climate Change|publisher=U.S. Global Change Research Program|date=2009-06-06|format=PDF|url=http://www.globalchange.gov/images/cir/pdf/Climate-Impacts-PR_june-6-2009.pdf|accessdate=2009-06-27}}</ref> Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years,<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2007-05-18-greenpeace-exxon_N.htm|title=Greenpeace: Exxon still funding climate skeptics|date=2007-05-18|publisher=USA Today|accessdate=2007-07-09}}</ref> or called for policies to reduce global warming.<ref>{{cite press release|url=http://www.ceres.org/news/news_item.php?nid=56|title=Global Warming Resolutions at U.S. Oil Companies Bring Policy Commitments from Leaders, and Record High Votes at Laggards|date=2004-04-28|publisher=Ceres|accessdate=2007-07-27}}</ref>
| + | Regarding his claims that the snow cap atop Africa's Mt. Kilimanjaro is shrinking and that global warming is to blame, the November 23, 2003, issue of Nature magazine stated, |
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| − | Some global warming skeptics in the science or political community [[List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming|dispute]] all or some of the global warming scientific consensus objecting to whether global warming is actually occurring, if human activity is truly to blame, and if the threat is as great a threat as has been alleged. Prominent global warming skeptics include [[Frederick Seitz]], [[Richard Lindzen]], [[Fred Singer]], [[Patrick Michaels]], [[John Christy]], and [[Robert Balling]].<ref>{{cite news|title=The Doubters of Global Warming|first=Oriana Zill|last=de Granados|url=http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/reports/skeptics.html|publisher=Frontline|location=|date=2007-04-24|accessdate=2009-07-31}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Skeptics Dispute Climate Worries and Each Other|first=Andrew C.|last=Revkin|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/09/science/earth/09climate.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&sq=global%20warming%20skeptic&st=cse&scp=1|publisher=New York Times|date=2009-03-08|accessdate=2009-07-31}}</ref><ref>{{citenews|title=Heretical thoughts about science and society|first=Freeman|last=Dyson|author2=Brockman, John (Editor)|url=http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/dysonf07/dysonf07_index.html|publisher=Edge - the third culture|date=2007-08-08|accessdate=2009-07-31}}</ref>
| + | :Although it's tempting to blame the ice loss on global warming, researchers think that deforestation of the mountain's foothills is the more likely culprit. Without the forests' humidity, previously moisture-laden winds blew dry. No longer replenished with water, the ice is evaporating in the strong equatorial sunshine." <ref name="sun" /> |
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| − | {{Clear}}
| + | Many conservatives see Al Gore as an example of [[liberals]] using [[deceit]]ful tactics in important debates, i order to make a position seem more solid than it is. |
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| − | ==See also== | + | ==2008 Presidential candidates on climate Change== |
| − | {{Portal|Global warming|Global Warming Map.jpg}}
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| − | * [[Glossary of climate change]]
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| − | * [[Index of climate change articles]]
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| − | ==Notes== | + | [[Bob Barr]] is the only major 2008 Presidential Candidate who has not adopted wholesale the theory of human-caused global warming. |
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| | + | According to his website,<ref>[http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/News/PressReleases/BA6709C3-B27D-4EF9-81E6-2BA9D6F8AB20.htm John McCain on Global warming.]</ref> [[Republican]] Presidential candidate [[John McCain]] will take a more "aggressive approach" to global warming which he has declared as "undeniable and urgent." He was supported in this in June 2008 by Republican governor [[Arnold Schwarzenegger]] who said McCain was the "real deal on the environment".<ref>[http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/06/30/MNDB11H66C.DTL&type=politics Schwarzenegger backs McCain on climate Change]</ref>. |
| | + | |
| | + | In his own words, McCain says "the overwhelming majority of scientific opinion in America today, and in the world, is that climate change is real. The fact is that it ''is'' real. The fact is that the solution to it is the development of technologies.... and a [[cap and trade]] proposal.... the debate is over."[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQMxIwpK_es] Unless McCain believes that Global Warming is entirely or largely man-made, there would be no sense in supporting a cap and trade solution. |
| | + | |
| | + | [[Barack Obama]] believes "that global warming is not just the greatest [[environmental]] [[challenge]] facing our planet—it is one of our greatest challenges of any kind." During his first 100 days in office, he would enact a giant and far-reaching [[tax]] "an economy-wide cap on U.S. carbon emissions that will reduce U.S. emissions by the amount scientists agree is necessary (80% by 2050). With worldwide cuts in emissions estimated to cost '''$45 Trillion dollars''' overall. <ref>[http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article4079036.ece World needs $45 trillion energy revolution] Timesonline.uk, June 6, 2008</ref> He comments "Putting a price on carbon is the most important step we can to take to reduce emissions."<ref>[http://presidentialprofiles2008.org/Obama/tab1.html League of Conservation Voters] presidentialprofiles2008.org</ref> |
| | + | |
| | + | ==Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" Movie Claims== |
| | + | |
| | + | A [[British]] court has determined that Al Gore's movie "An Inconvenient Truth" contains at least eleven material falsehoods <ref>[http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/10/09/court-identifies-eleven-inaccuracies-al-gore-s-inconvenient-truth], http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/10/09/court-identifies-eleven-inaccuracies-al-gore-s-inconvenient-truth, October 9, 2007</ref> |
| | + | |
| | + | Those inaccuracies include the following |
| | + | |
| | + | * The film claims that melting snows on Mount Kilimanjaro evidence global warming. The Government's expert was forced to concede that this is not correct. |
| | + | * The film suggests that evidence from ice cores proves that rising CO2 causes temperature increases over 650,000 years. The Court found the film misleading: over that period the rises in CO2 lagged behind the temperature rises by 800-2000 years. |
| | + | * The film uses emotive images of [[Hurricane Katrina]] and suggests that this has been caused by global warming. The Government's expert had to accept that it was "not possible" to attribute one-off events to global warming. |
| | + | * The film shows the drying up of Lake Chad and claims that this was caused by global warming. The Government's expert had to accept that this was not the case. |
| | + | * The film claims that a study showed that polar bears had drowned due to disappearing arctic ice. It turned out that Mr Gore had misread the study: in fact four polar bears drowned and this was because of a particularly violent storm. |
| | + | * The film threatens that global warming could stop the Gulf Stream throwing Europe into an ice age: the Claimant's evidence was that this was a [[scientific]] impossibility. |
| | + | * The film blames global warming for species losses including coral reef bleaching. The Government could not find any evidence to support this claim. |
| | + | * The film suggests that the [[Greenland]] ice covering could melt causing sea levels to rise dangerously. The evidence is that Greenland will not melt for millennia. |
| | + | * The film suggests that the Antarctic [[ice]] covering is melting, the evidence was that it is in fact increasing. |
| | + | * The film suggests that sea levels could rise by 7m causing the displacement of millions of people. The evidence is that sea levels are expected to rise by about 40cm over the next hundred years and that there is no such threat of massive migration. |
| | + | * The film claims that rising sea levels has caused the evacuation of certain Pacific islands to [[New Zealand]]. The Government are unable to substantiate this and the Court observed that this appears to be a false claim. |
| | + | |
| | + | == Scientists == |
| | + | |
| | + | [[Image:Rogerrevelle.jpg|thumb|right|200px|Roger Revelle]] |
| | + | |
| | + | {| |
| | + | | valign="top" width="35%"| |
| | + | * [[Roger Revelle]] |
| | + | * [[Achim Steiner]] |
| | + | * [[Fred Singer]] |
| | + | * [[Richard Lindzen]] |
| | + | * [[Sallie Baliunas]] |
| | + | * [[Lonnie Thompson]] |
| | + | | valign="top" width="33%"| |
| | + | * [[James E. Hansen]] |
| | + | * [[Michael Mann]] |
| | + | * [[Charles Keeling]] |
| | + | * [[Edwin A. Hernández-Delgado]] |
| | + | |} |
| | + | |
| | + | ==See Also== |
| | + | *[[Anthropogenic global warming theory]] |
| | + | *[[Global Warming Controversy]] |
| | + | *''[[Massachusetts v. EPA]]'' |
| | + | *[[Socialism and global warming]] |
| | + | *[[Politics of global warming]] |
| | + | *[[Liberal_hysteria#Global_Warming_Derangement_Syndrome|Global Warming Derangement Syndrome]] |
| | + | *[[Socialist Environmental Disasters]] |
| | + | *[[An Inconvenient Truth]] |
| | + | *[[Previous Breaking News/Global Warming|Articles about '''Global Warming''' from previous "Breaking News"]] |
| | + | *[[Wikiproject:News by Subject#Global Warming| Wikiproject:News by Subject- Global Warming]] |
| | + | |
| | + | |
| | + | |
| | + | ===Critique of the Hockey Stick Reconstruction=== |
| | + | <small> |
| | + | *[http://www.climateaudit.org/pdf/mcintyre.mckitrick.2003.pdf Corrections To The Mann et. al. (1998) Proxy Data Base And Northern Hemispheric Average Temperature Series] by Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, ''Energy & Enviornment'' volume 14, 2003. |
| | + | *[http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/05/the_decay_of_the_hockey_stick.html The Decay of the Hockey Stick by Von Storch] published on the journal ''Nature'''s blog, May 3, 2007. |
| | + | *[http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/13830/ A Global Warming Bombshell] by Richard A. Muller, ''Technology Review'' , Oct. 2004; calls into question famous graph by Michael Mann. |
| | + | *[http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/306/5696/679 Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data] by Hans von Storch, Eduardo Zorita, Julie M. Jones, Yegor Dimitriev, Fidel González-Rouco, Simon F. B. Tett, ''Science'' magazine, 22 October 2004. |
| | + | </small> |
| | | | |
| − | {{Cnote2 Begin|list-style=upper-alpha|colwidth=40em}}
| |
| − | {{Cnote2|A|Increase is for years 1905 to 2005. Global surface temperature is defined in the [[AR4|IPCC Fourth Assessment Report]] as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature. These error bounds are constructed with a 90% [[confidence interval|uncertainty interval]].}}
| |
| − | {{Cnote2|B|The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of [[Australia]], [[Belgium]], [[Brazil]], [[Canada]], [[the Caribbean]], [[China]], [[France]], [[Germany]], [[India]], [[Indonesia]], [[Ireland]], [[Italy]], [[Malaysia]], [[New Zealand]], [[Sweden]], and the [[UK]]. The 2005 statement added [[Japan]], [[Russia]], and the [[U.S.]] The 2007 statement added [[Mexico]] and [[South Africa]]. The [[Network of African Science Academies]], and the [[Polish Academy of Sciences]] have issued separate statements. Professional scientific societies include [[American Astronomical Society]], [[American Chemical Society]], [[American Geophysical Union]], [[American Institute of Physics]], [[American Meteorological Society]], [[American Physical Society]], [[American Quaternary Association]], [[Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society]], [[Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences]], [[Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society]], [[European Academy of Sciences and Arts]], [[European Geosciences Union]], [[European Science Foundation]], [[Geological Society of America]], [[Geological Society of Australia]], [[Geological Society of London]]-Stratigraphy Commission, [[InterAcademy Council]], [[International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics]], [[International Union for Quaternary Research]], [http://www.nagt.org/index.html National Association of Geoscience Teachers], [[United States National Research Council|National Research Council (US)]], [[Royal Meteorological Society]], and [[World Meteorological Organization]].}}
| |
| − | {{Cnote2|C|Note that the greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature '''increase''' of about 33 °C (59 °F) compared to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average '''surface temperature''' of 33 °C (91 °F). The average worldwide surface temperature is about 14 °C (57 °F).}}
| |
| − | {{Cnote2 End}}
| |
| | | | |
| | ==References== | | ==References== |
| | + | {{reflist|2}} |
| | | | |
| − | {{reflist|colwidth=30em}}
| + | ==External Links== |
| − | | + | *[http://www.aim.org/wls/category/global-warming/ What Liberals Say - Category: Global Warming], [[Accuracy In Media]] |
| − | ==Further reading== | + | *[http://global-warming.accuweather.com/2007/12/attempting_to_stop_global_warm_1.html Attempting to Stop Global Warming is Futile and a Mistake, says letter to the UN] |
| − | {{refbegin}}
| + | *[http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=164004 Signatories of an open letter on the UN climate-conference] |
| − | *{{cite book|title=Financial Risks of Climate Change|author=Association of British Insurers|year=2005-06|url=http://www.climatewise.org.uk/storage/610/financial_risks_of_climate_change.pdf|format=PDF}} | + | *[http://schwinger.harvard.edu/~motl/global-temperature-not-exist.pdf Does a global temperature exist?], ''Journal of Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics'', June 2007. |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Barnett|first=Tim P.|coauthors=Adam, J. C.; Lettenmaier, D. P.|date=2005-11-17|title=Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions|journal=Nature|volume=438|issue=7066|pages=303–309|url=http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7066/abs/nature04141.html|doi=10.1038/nature04141|Format=abstract}}
| + | *[http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2032821,00.html The appliance of science] by Mike Hulme. |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Behrenfeld|first=Michael J.|coauthors=''et al.''|date=2006-12-07|title=Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity|journal=Nature|volume=444|issue=7120|pages=752–755|url=http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/~davey/MyPapers/Behrenfeld_etal_2006_Nature.pdf|format=PDF|doi=10.1038/nature05317}} | + | *[http://www.climatecrisis.net/ ''An Inconvenient Truth''], Film by [[Al Gore]] |
| − | *{{cite journal|first=Onelack|last=Choi|coauthors=Fisher, Ann|month=May|year=2005|title=The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S.|journal=Climate Change|volume=58|issue=1–2|pages=149–170|doi=10.1023/A:1023459216609|url=http://www.springerlink.com/content/m6308777613702q0/}}
| + | *[http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2332531355859226455&q=great+global+warming+swindle ''The Great Global Warming Swindle'' - Documentary Film] |
| − | *{{cite book|last=Dyurgerov|first=Mark B.|coauthors=Meier, Mark F.|year=2005|title=Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: a 2004 Snapshot|publisher=Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research Occasional Paper #58|url=http://instaar.colorado.edu/other/download/OP58_dyurgerov_meier.pdf|format=PDF|id={{ISSN|0069-6145}}}} | + | *[http://www.physics.harvard.edu/~motl/iris-effect.pdf Climate Sensitivity and Observed Negative Feedbacks], lecture by Richard Lindzen and Roberto Rondanelli. |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Emanuel|first=Kerry A.|date=2005-08-04|title=Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.|journal=Nature|volume=436|issue=7051|pages=686–688|url=ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf|format=PDF|doi=10.1038/nature03906}}
| + | *[http://www.physics.harvard.edu/~motl/lindzen-nature-of-arguments.pdf Nature of Arguments for Anthropogenic Global Warming], by Richard Lindzen |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Hansen|first=James|authorlink=James Hansen|coauthors=''et al.''|date=2005-06-03|title=Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications|journal=Science|volume=308|issue=5727|pages=1431–1435|url=http://pangea.stanford.edu/research/Oceans/GES205/Hansen_Science_Earth's%20Energy%20Balance.pdf|format=PDF|doi=10.1126/science.1110252|pmid=15860591}}
| + | *[http://www.independent.org/store/book_detail.asp?bookID=42 ''Hot Talk, Cold Science: Global Warmings's Unfinished Debate'', by S. Fred Singer] |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Hinrichs|first=Kai-Uwe|coauthors=Hmelo, Laura R.; Sylva, Sean P.|date=2003-02-21|title=Molecular Fossil Record of Elevated Methane Levels in Late Pleistocene Coastal Waters|journal=Science|volume=299|issue=5610|pages=1214–1217|doi=10.1126/science.1079601|pmid=12595688}}
| + | *[http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv15n2/reg15n2g.html Global Warming: The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus] - [[Richard S. Lindzen]], Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the [[Massachusetts Institute of Technology]] |
| − | *{{cite news|last=Hirsch|first=Tim|publisher=BBC|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4604332.stm|title=Plants revealed as methane source|date=2006-01-11}} | + | *[http://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?issueID=47&articleID=604 "Should We Have Acted Thirty Years Ago to Prevent Climate Change?", by Randall G. Holcombe]. |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Hoyt|first=Douglas V.|coauthors=Schatten, Kenneth H.|year=1993–11|title=A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700–1992|journal=Journal of Geophysical Research|volume=98|issue=A11|pages=18,895–18,906|url=http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-bib_query?bibcode=1993JGR....9818895H&db_key=AST&data_type=HTML&format=&high=448f267ff303582|doi=10.1029/93JA01944}} | + | *[http://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?issueID=25&articleID=296 "After Kyoto: A Global Scramble for Advantage," by Bruce Yandle]. |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Karnaukhov|first=A. V.|year=2001|title=Role of the Biosphere in the Formation of the Earth’s Climate: The Greenhouse Catastrophe|journal=Biophysics|volume=46|issue=6|url=http://avturchin.narod.ru/Green.pdf|format=PDF}} | + | *[http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=2319 The physical evidence of earth's unstoppable 1,500-year climate cycle] |
| − | *{{cite book|last=Kenneth|first=James P.|coauthors=''et al.''|year=2003-02-14|title=Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis|publisher=American Geophysical Union|url=https://www.agu.org/cgi-bin/agubooks?book=ASSP0542960}} | + | *[http://www.independent.org/publications/article.asp?id=1714 "Is There a Basis for Global Warming Alarm?", by Richard Lindzen] |
| − | *{{cite news|last=Keppler|first=Frank|coauthors=''et al.''|title=Global Warming - The Blame Is not with the Plants|url=http://www.mpg.de/english/illustrationsDocumentation/documentation/pressReleases/2006/pressRelease200601131/index.html|publisher=Max Planck Society|date=2006-01-18}}
| + | *[http://www.independent.org/publications/policy_reports/detail.asp?type=full&id=5 "New Perspectives in Climate Change: What the EPA Isn’t Telling Us"] |
| − | *{{cite journal|title=The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun's total and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate|last=Lean|first=Judith L.|coauthors=Wang, Y.M.; Sheeley, N.R.|date=2002–12|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|volume=29|issue=24|url=http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002GeoRL..29x..77L|doi=10.1029/2002GL015880|pages=2224|format=abstract}}
| + | *[http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=17181 Survey Shows Climatologists Are Split on Global Warming] |
| − | *{{cite book|last=Lerner|first=K. Lee|coauthors=Lerner, K. Lee; Wilmoth, Brenda|title=Environmental issues: essential primary sources|publisher=Thomson Gale|date=2006-07-26|isbn=1414406258}}
| + | *[http://www.magma.ca/~hurleyp/FightingTheHoax.htm Fighting the Hoax] |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Muscheler, Raimund|coauthors=''et al.''|date=2005-07-28|title=Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity?|journal=Nature|volume=436|issue=7012|pages=1084–1087|url=http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/raimund/publications/Muscheler_et_al_Nature2005.pdf|format=PDF|doi=10.1038/nature04045}} | + | *[http://www.climateaudit.org Climate Audit], Steve McIntyre's blog |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Oerlemans|first=J.|date=2005-04-29|title=Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records|journal=Science|volume=308|issue=5722|pages=675–677|url=http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU05/04572/EGU05-J-04572.pdf|format=PDF|doi=10.1126/science.1107046|pmid=15746388}} | + | *[http://www.realclimate.org Real Climate], blog by a group of climatologists including Michael Mann |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Oreskes|first=Naomi|authorlink=Naomi Oreskes|date=2004-12-03|title=Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change|journal=Science|volume=306|issue=5702|pages=1686|url=http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/306/5702/1686.pdf|format=PDF|doi=10.1126/science.1103618}} | + | *[http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/01/co2_fairytales_in_global_warmi.html "CO2 Fairytales in Global Warming"] |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Purse|first=Bethan V.|coauthors=''et al.''|title=Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe|journal=Nature Reviews Microbiology|volume=3|issue=2|pages=171–181|month=February|year=2005|doi=10.1038/nrmicro1090|url=http://www.nature.com/nrmicro/journal/v3/n2/abs/nrmicro1090_fs.html|format=abstract}} | + | *[http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm A complete list of things caused by global warming] |
| − | *{{cite news|last=Revkin|first=Andrew C|date=2005-11-05|title=Rise in Gases Unmatched by a History in Ancient Ice|publisher=The New York Times|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/25/science/earth/25core.html?ei=5090&en=d5078e33050b2b0c&ex=1290574800&adxnnl=1&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss}} | |
| − | *{{cite book|last=Ruddiman|first=William F.|authorlink=William Ruddiman|date=2005-12-15|title=Earth's Climate Past and Future|location=New York|publisher=Princeton University Press|isbn=0-7167-3741-8|url=http://www.whfreeman.com/ruddiman/}} | |
| − | *{{cite book|last=Ruddiman|first=William F.|authorlink=William Ruddiman|date=2005-08-01|title=Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate|location=New Jersey|publisher=Princeton University Press|isbn=0-691-12164-8}}
| |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Solanki|first=Sami K.|authorlink=Sami Solanki|coauthors=''et al.''|date=2004-10-23|title=Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years.|journal=Nature|volume=431|pages=1084–1087|url=http://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/nature02995.pdf|format=PDF|doi=10.1038/nature02995}} | |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Solanki|first=Sami K.|authorlink=Sami Solanki|coauthors=''et al.''|date=2005-07-28|title=Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity? (Reply)|journal=Nature|volume=436|pages=E4–E5|url=http://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/sola_nature05.pdf|format=PDF|doi=10.1038/nature04046}}
| |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Sowers|first=Todd|date=2006-02-10|journal=Science|volume=311|issue=5762|pages=838–840|title=Late Quaternary Atmospheric CH<sub>4</sub> Isotope Record Suggests Marine Clathrates Are Stable|doi=10.1126/science.1121235|pmid=16469923}}
| |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Svensmark|first=Henrik|coauthors=''et al.''|year=2007-02-08|title=Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions|journal=Proceedings of the Royal Society A|volume=463|issue=2078|pages=385–396|publisher=FirstCite Early Online Publishing|doi=10.1098/rspa.2006.1773}}''(online version requires registration)''
| |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Walter|first=K. M.|coauthors=''et al.''|date=2006-09-07|title=Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming|journal=Nature|volume=443|issue=7107|pages=71–75|doi=10.1038/nature05040}}
| |
| − | *{{cite journal|last=Wang|first=Y.-M.|coauthors=Lean, J.L.; Sheeley, N.R.|date=2005-05-20|title=Modeling the sun's magnetic field and irradiance since 1713|journal=Astrophysical Journal|volume=625|pages=522–538|url=http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Wang_2005.pdf|format=PDF|doi=10.1086/429689}} | |
| − | {{refend}}
| |
| | | | |
| − | ==External links==
| + | {{liberalism}} |
| − | {{Wikipedia-Books}} | |
| − | {{Sisterlinks|wikt=Global warming|b=Climate Change|q=Global warming|s=Global warming|commons=Category:Global warming|n=Category:Climate change|v=Global warming}}
| |
| − | '''Research'''
| |
| − | {{refbegin}}
| |
| − | *[http://www.ipcc.ch Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] — collection of IPCC reports
| |
| − | *[http://www.nas.edu/climatechange Climate Change at the National Academies] — repository for reports, workshops, and meetings
| |
| − | *[http://www.nature.com/climate/index.html Nature Reports Climate Change] — free-access web resource
| |
| − | *[http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/ Met Office: Climate change] — UK National Weather Service
| |
| − | *[http://www.istl.org/01-fall/internet.html Global Science and Technology Sources on the Internet] — extensive commented list of internet resources
| |
| − | *[http://edgcm.columbia.edu/ Educational Global Climate Modelling] (EdGCM) — research-quality climate change simulator
| |
| − | *[http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/ DISCOVER] — satellite-based ocean and climate data since 1979 from NASA
| |
| − | *[http://www.globalwarmingart.com/ Global Warming Art] — collection of figures and images
| |
| − | {{refend}}
| |
| | | | |
| − | '''Educational'''
| + | [[Category:Earth Sciences]] |
| − | {{refbegin}}
| + | [[Category:Environmentalism]] |
| − | *[http://green.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/gw-overview.html What Is Global Warming?] — by National Geographic
| + | [[Category:Liberal Bias]] |
| − | *[http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html Global Warming Frequently Asked Questions] — from NOAA
| + | <sub>Subscript text</sub> |
| − | *[http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/climatechange/faqs.jsp Understanding Climate Change - Frequently Asked Questions] — from UCAR
| |
| − | *[http://climate.jpl.nasa.gov/ Global Climate Change: NASA's Eyes on the Earth] — from NASA's JPL and Caltech
| |
| − | *[http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/series/climate/ OurWorld 2.0] — from the United Nations University
| |
| − | *[http://www.pewclimate.org/ Pew Center on Global Climate Change] — business and politics
| |
| − | *[http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/BestEffortGlobalWarmingTrajectories/ Best Effort Global Warming Trajectories - Wolfram Demonstrations Project] — by Harvey Lam
| |
| − | *[http://www.koshland-science-museum.org/exhibitgcc/ Koshland Science Museum - Global Warming Facts and Our Future] — graphical introduction from National Academy of Sciences
| |
| − | *[http://www.aip.org/history/climate The Discovery of Global Warming - A History] — by Spencer R. Weart from The American Institute of Physics
| |
| − | {{refend}}
| |
| − | {{Global warming|state=expanded}}
| |
| − | {{DEFAULTSORT:Global Warming}}
| |