Changes

After the [[Democratic Party]] successes in the 2006 off-year election (when they recaptured Congress), augmented by more gains in the [[United States Presidential Election, 2008|Presidential Election of 2008]], the question is whether the Democrats will hold their gains or slip back.  Since the Democrats have an advantage of 257-178 in the House, the GOP must gain 40 seats to recapture control. Since the Democrats control the Senate 60-40 (counting the two independents), the GOP needs to gain 11 seats in the Senate to retake control<ref>A 50-50 tie would be broken by the vice president in favor of the Democrats.</ref>; but even a one-seat gain would allow the GOP to filibuster obnoxious bills, for 60 votes are needed to break a filibuster.

After the [[Democratic Party]] successes in the 2006 off-year election (when they recaptured Congress), augmented by more gains in the [[United States Presidential Election, 2008|Presidential Election of 2008]], the question is whether the Democrats will hold their gains or slip back.  Since the Democrats have an advantage of 257-178 in the House, the GOP must gain 40 seats to recapture control. Since the Democrats control the Senate 60-40 (counting the two independents), the GOP needs to gain 11 seats in the Senate to retake control<ref>A 50-50 tie would be broken by the vice president in favor of the Democrats.</ref>; but even a one-seat gain would allow the GOP to filibuster obnoxious bills, for 60 votes are needed to break a filibuster.

 

Although Democratic fund raising is significantly lower than the 2007-2008 election cycle <ref>http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/24/AR2009092404906.html?hpid=topnews</ref>, they have still gotten off to a faster start than Republicans in 2010. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $10.2 million in the bank at the end of July, 2009, with debts of $5.3 million. The National Republican Congressional Committee had just $4 million in cash and owed $2.75 million.

Although Democratic fund raising is significantly lower than the 2007-2008 election cycle <ref>http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/24/AR2009092404906.html?hpid=topnews</ref>, they have still gotten off to a faster start than Republicans in 2010. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $10.2 million in the bank at the end of July, 2009, with debts of $5.3 million. The National Republican Congressional Committee had just $4 million in cash and owed $2.75 million.

The GOP has a small financial lead in Senate races. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has $6.80 million for its campaign account, but has $2.91 from outstanding loans. The [[National Republican Senatorial Committee]] has $5.10 million, and has paid off its debt from the last election cycle. <ref>http://ow.ly/pThQ</ref> In August 2009, the NRSC raised $3.08 million while the DSCC raised $2.2 million.  

The GOP has a small financial lead in Senate races. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has $6.80 million for its campaign account, but has $2.91 from outstanding loans. The [[National Republican Senatorial Committee]] has $5.10 million, and has paid off its debt from the last election cycle. <ref>http://ow.ly/pThQ</ref> In August 2009, the NRSC raised $3.08 million while the DSCC raised $2.2 million.  

 

In the Nov. 3, 2009, off-year elections, defeat was the fate of Democrats in [[New York City]], [[New Jersey]] and [[Virginia]]. Mayor [[Michael Bloomberg]], an independent, spent his way to a third term in New York City while Republican [[Bob McDonnell]] won in a landslide for governor of Virginia; in New Jersey Republican [[Christopher Christie]] ousted the incumbent Democrat [[Jon Corzine]] despite his millions and Obama's campaigning.

In the Nov. 3, 2009, off-year elections, defeat was the fate of Democrats in [[New York City]], [[New Jersey]] and [[Virginia]]. Mayor [[Michael Bloomberg]], an independent, spent his way to a third term in New York City while Republican [[Bob McDonnell]] won in a landslide for governor of Virginia; in New Jersey Republican [[Christopher Christie]] ousted the incumbent Democrat [[Jon Corzine]] despite his millions and Obama's campaigning.

[[File:Obama-poll.jpg|thumb|350px|Many Democrats were counting on riding Obama's coattails--but since the summer of 2009 those have become liabilities.  ''the little daily zig-zags are what is known as "sampling error"'']]

[[File:Obama-poll.jpg|thumb|350px|Many Democrats were counting on riding Obama's coattails--but since the summer of 2009 those have become liabilities.  ''the little daily zig-zags are what is known as "sampling error"'']]

==Forecasts==

==Forecasts==