Difference between revisions of "User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds"

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(Paul Ryan on the radar, but otherwise not much change)
(GOP at its lowest probability of the campaign)
 
(18 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
 +
'''Probabilities from 5 March'''
 +
 
{| class="wikitable"
 
{| class="wikitable"
 
|-
 
|-
Line 7: Line 9:
 
! 16 March 2016
 
! 16 March 2016
 
! 25 March 2016
 
! 25 March 2016
 +
! 27 March 2016
 +
! 31 March 2016
 +
! 5 April 2016
 +
! 6 April 2016
 +
! 7 April 2016
 +
! 14 April 2016
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Donald Trump
 
| Donald Trump
Line 14: Line 22:
 
| 20.4%
 
| 20.4%
 
| 21.4%
 
| 21.4%
−
|  
+
| 21.0%
 +
| 14.1%
 +
| 13.1%
 +
| 12.9%
 +
| 12.6%
 +
| 14.2%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Marco Rubio
 
| Marco Rubio
Line 20: Line 33:
 
| 3.2%
 
| 3.2%
 
| 2.5%
 
| 2.5%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
Line 29: Line 48:
 
| 4.1%
 
| 4.1%
 
| 4.1%
 
| 4.1%
 +
| 4.0%
 +
| 6.5%
 +
| 7.1%
 +
| 7.7%
 +
| 7.4%
 +
| 9.5%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| John Kasich
 
| John Kasich
Line 36: Line 61:
 
| 7.2%
 
| 7.2%
 
| 5.0%
 
| 5.0%
 +
| 3.2%
 +
| 5.7%
 +
| 5.7%
 +
| 5.6%
 +
| 5.5%
 +
| 3.7%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Paul Ryan
 
| Paul Ryan
Line 43: Line 74:
 
|  
 
|  
 
| 1.4%
 
| 1.4%
 +
| 1.4%
 +
| 2.5%
 +
| 2.5%
 +
| 2.5%
 +
| 2.4%
 +
| 1.1%
 +
|-
 +
| Mitt Romney
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
| 0.8%
 +
| 0.6%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| '''Republican Total'''
 
| '''Republican Total'''
Line 48: Line 98:
 
| '''34.7%'''
 
| '''34.7%'''
 
| '''32.1%'''
 
| '''32.1%'''
 +
| '''31.7%'''
 
| '''31.9%'''
 
| '''31.9%'''
 +
| '''29.6%'''
 +
| '''28.8%'''
 +
| '''28.3%'''
 +
| '''28.7%'''
 +
| '''28.7%'''
 +
| '''29.0%'''
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Hilary Clinton
 
| Hilary Clinton
Line 56: Line 113:
 
| 60.3%
 
| 60.3%
 
| 61.0%
 
| 61.0%
 +
| 60.0%
 +
| 60.6%
 +
| 59.0%
 +
| 56.1%
 +
| 54.5%
 +
| 60.0%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Bernie Sanders
 
| Bernie Sanders
Line 63: Line 126:
 
| 5.8%
 
| 5.8%
 
| 5.0%
 
| 5.0%
 +
| 8.4%
 +
| 8.5%
 +
| 10.6%
 +
| 12.0%
 +
| 13.6%
 +
| 8.5%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Joe Biden
 
| Joe Biden
Line 70: Line 139:
 
| 2.1%
 
| 2.1%
 
| 2.1%
 
| 2.1%
 +
| 2.0%
 +
| 2.1%
 +
| 2.1%
 +
| 3.2%
 +
| 3.2%
 +
| 2.5%
 
|-
 
|-
 
| '''Democrat Total'''
 
| '''Democrat Total'''
Line 75: Line 150:
 
| '''63.2%'''
 
| '''63.2%'''
 
| '''65.8%'''
 
| '''65.8%'''
 +
| '''68.2%'''
 
| '''68.1%'''
 
| '''68.1%'''
 +
| '''70.4%'''
 +
| '''71.2%'''
 +
| '''71.7%'''
 +
| '''71.3%'''
 +
| '''71.3%'''
 +
| '''71.0%'''
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Michael Bloomberg
 
| Michael Bloomberg
Line 81: Line 163:
 
| 2.0%
 
| 2.0%
 
| 2.1%
 
| 2.1%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
 
| 0.0%
Line 90: Line 178:
 
| '''0.0%'''
 
| '''0.0%'''
 
| '''0.0%'''
 
| '''0.0%'''
 +
| '''0.0%'''
 +
| '''0.0%'''
 +
| '''0.0%'''
 +
| '''0.0%'''
 +
| '''0.0%'''
 +
| '''0.0%'''
 +
|}
 +
 +
'''Probabilities from 28 April'''
 +
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|-
 +
! Candidate
 +
! 28 April 2016
 +
! 7 May 2016
 +
!14 May 2016
 +
!21 May 2016
 +
!28 May 2016
 +
!11 June 2016
 +
!22 June 2016
 +
|-
 +
| Donald Trump
 +
| 21.0%
 +
| 27.2%
 +
| 25.1%
 +
| 27.2%
 +
| 30.5%
 +
| 26.0%
 +
| 20.6%
 +
|-
 +
| Ted Cruz
 +
| 3.9%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
|0.0%
 +
|0.0%
 +
|0.0%
 +
|0.0%
 +
|0.0%
 +
|-
 +
| John Kasich
 +
| 1.8%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
|0.0%
 +
|0.0%
 +
|0.0%
 +
|0.0%
 +
|0.0%
 +
|-
 +
| Paul Ryan
 +
| 0.0%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
|0.0%
 +
|0.0%
 +
|0.0%
 +
|0.0%
 +
|1.8%
 +
|-
 +
| '''Republican Total'''
 +
| '''26.7%'''
 +
| '''27.2%'''
 +
| '''25.1%'''
 +
| '''27.2%'''
 +
| '''30.5%'''
 +
| '''26.0%'''
 +
|'''22.5%'''
 +
|-
 +
| Hilary Clinton
 +
| 68.8%
 +
| 69.0%
 +
| 67.9%
 +
| 64.9%
 +
| 63.2%
 +
| 68.3%
 +
|72.5%
 +
|-
 +
| Bernie Sanders
 +
| 3.1%
 +
| 2.7%
 +
| 5.3%
 +
| 5.3%
 +
|4.0%
 +
|3.5%
 +
|2.7%
 +
|-
 +
| Joe Biden
 +
| 1.5%
 +
| 1.1%
 +
| 1.8%
 +
| 2.6%
 +
| 2.4%
 +
|2.2%
 +
|2.3%
 +
|-
 +
| '''Democrat Total'''
 +
| '''73.3%'''
 +
| '''72.8%'''
 +
| '''74.9%'''
 +
| '''72.8%'''
 +
| '''69.5%'''
 +
|'''74.0%'''
 +
|'''77.5%'''
 +
|}
 +
 +
'''Probabilities from 1 August'''
 +
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|-
 +
! Candidate
 +
! 7 August 2016
 +
!20 August 2016
 +
!11 October 2016
 +
!16 October 2016
 +
|-
 +
| Donald Trump
 +
| 25.4%
 +
| 20.0%
 +
| 17.8%
 +
| 17.1%
 +
|-
 +
| Mike Pence
 +
|
 +
|
 +
| 1.8%
 +
| 1.2%
 +
|-
 +
| Paul Ryan
 +
|
 +
|
 +
| 1.4%
 +
| 0.6%
 +
|-
 +
| '''Republican Total'''
 +
| '''25.4%'''
 +
| '''20.0%'''
 +
| '''21.0%'''
 +
| '''18.9%'''
 +
|-
 +
| Hilary Clinton
 +
| 74.6%
 +
| 80.0%
 +
| 79.0%
 +
| 81.1%
 +
|-
 +
| '''Democrat Total'''
 +
|'''74.6%'''
 +
|'''80.0%'''
 +
| '''79.0%'''
 +
| '''81.1%'''
 +
|-
 
|}
 
|}

Latest revision as of 22:45, October 15, 2016

Probabilities from 5 March

Candidate 5 March 2016 7 March 2016 13 March 2016 16 March 2016 25 March 2016 27 March 2016 31 March 2016 5 April 2016 6 April 2016 7 April 2016 14 April 2016
Donald Trump 26.6% 21.0% 20.1% 20.4% 21.4% 21.0% 14.1% 13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 14.2%
Marco Rubio 5.8% 3.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ted Cruz 2.5% 6.5% 4.5% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 6.5% 7.1% 7.7% 7.4% 9.5%
John Kasich 1.1% 4.0% 5.0% 7.2% 5.0% 3.2% 5.7% 5.7% 5.6% 5.5% 3.7%
Paul Ryan 1.4% 1.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 1.1%
Mitt Romney 0.8% 0.6%
Republican Total 35.9% 34.7% 32.1% 31.7% 31.9% 29.6% 28.8% 28.3% 28.7% 28.7% 29.0%
Hilary Clinton 57.6% 56.0% 57.0% 60.3% 61.0% 60.0% 60.6% 59.0% 56.1% 54.5% 60.0%
Bernie Sanders 3.3% 5.6% 7.1% 5.8% 5.0% 8.4% 8.5% 10.6% 12.0% 13.6% 8.5%
Joe Biden 1.1% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 3.2% 3.2% 2.5%
Democrat Total 62.0% 63.2% 65.8% 68.2% 68.1% 70.4% 71.2% 71.7% 71.3% 71.3% 71.0%
Michael Bloomberg 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Independent Total 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Probabilities from 28 April

Candidate 28 April 2016 7 May 2016 14 May 2016 21 May 2016 28 May 2016 11 June 2016 22 June 2016
Donald Trump 21.0% 27.2% 25.1% 27.2% 30.5% 26.0% 20.6%
Ted Cruz 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
John Kasich 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Paul Ryan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8%
Republican Total 26.7% 27.2% 25.1% 27.2% 30.5% 26.0% 22.5%
Hilary Clinton 68.8% 69.0% 67.9% 64.9% 63.2% 68.3% 72.5%
Bernie Sanders 3.1% 2.7% 5.3% 5.3% 4.0% 3.5% 2.7%
Joe Biden 1.5% 1.1% 1.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.3%
Democrat Total 73.3% 72.8% 74.9% 72.8% 69.5% 74.0% 77.5%

Probabilities from 1 August

Candidate 7 August 2016 20 August 2016 11 October 2016 16 October 2016
Donald Trump 25.4% 20.0% 17.8% 17.1%
Mike Pence 1.8% 1.2%
Paul Ryan 1.4% 0.6%
Republican Total 25.4% 20.0% 21.0% 18.9%
Hilary Clinton 74.6% 80.0% 79.0% 81.1%
Democrat Total 74.6% 80.0% 79.0% 81.1%
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