Difference between revisions of "User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds"
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(Trump last Republican standing, GOP closes gap slightly on Dems) |
(GOP at its lowest probability of the campaign) |
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| (8 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown) | |||
| Line 193: | Line 193: | ||
! 28 April 2016 | ! 28 April 2016 | ||
! 7 May 2016 | ! 7 May 2016 | ||
| + | !14 May 2016 | ||
| + | !21 May 2016 | ||
| + | !28 May 2016 | ||
| + | !11 June 2016 | ||
| + | !22 June 2016 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Donald Trump | | Donald Trump | ||
| 21.0% | | 21.0% | ||
| 27.2% | | 27.2% | ||
| + | | 25.1% | ||
| + | | 27.2% | ||
| + | | 30.5% | ||
| + | | 26.0% | ||
| + | | 20.6% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Ted Cruz | | Ted Cruz | ||
| 3.9% | | 3.9% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| John Kasich | | John Kasich | ||
| 1.8% | | 1.8% | ||
| 0.0% | | 0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | Paul Ryan | ||
| + | | 0.0% | ||
| + | | 0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
| + | |0.0% | ||
| + | |1.8% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| '''Republican Total''' | | '''Republican Total''' | ||
| '''26.7%''' | | '''26.7%''' | ||
| '''27.2%''' | | '''27.2%''' | ||
| + | | '''25.1%''' | ||
| + | | '''27.2%''' | ||
| + | | '''30.5%''' | ||
| + | | '''26.0%''' | ||
| + | |'''22.5%''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Hilary Clinton | | Hilary Clinton | ||
| 68.8% | | 68.8% | ||
| 69.0% | | 69.0% | ||
| + | | 67.9% | ||
| + | | 64.9% | ||
| + | | 63.2% | ||
| + | | 68.3% | ||
| + | |72.5% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Bernie Sanders | | Bernie Sanders | ||
| 3.1% | | 3.1% | ||
| 2.7% | | 2.7% | ||
| + | | 5.3% | ||
| + | | 5.3% | ||
| + | |4.0% | ||
| + | |3.5% | ||
| + | |2.7% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Joe Biden | | Joe Biden | ||
| 1.5% | | 1.5% | ||
| 1.1% | | 1.1% | ||
| + | | 1.8% | ||
| + | | 2.6% | ||
| + | | 2.4% | ||
| + | |2.2% | ||
| + | |2.3% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| '''Democrat Total''' | | '''Democrat Total''' | ||
| '''73.3%''' | | '''73.3%''' | ||
| '''72.8%''' | | '''72.8%''' | ||
| + | | '''74.9%''' | ||
| + | | '''72.8%''' | ||
| + | | '''69.5%''' | ||
| + | |'''74.0%''' | ||
| + | |'''77.5%''' | ||
| + | |} | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Probabilities from 1 August''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | {| class="wikitable" | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | ! Candidate | ||
| + | ! 7 August 2016 | ||
| + | !20 August 2016 | ||
| + | !11 October 2016 | ||
| + | !16 October 2016 | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | Donald Trump | ||
| + | | 25.4% | ||
| + | | 20.0% | ||
| + | | 17.8% | ||
| + | | 17.1% | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | Mike Pence | ||
| + | | | ||
| + | | | ||
| + | | 1.8% | ||
| + | | 1.2% | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | Paul Ryan | ||
| + | | | ||
| + | | | ||
| + | | 1.4% | ||
| + | | 0.6% | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | '''Republican Total''' | ||
| + | | '''25.4%''' | ||
| + | | '''20.0%''' | ||
| + | | '''21.0%''' | ||
| + | | '''18.9%''' | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | Hilary Clinton | ||
| + | | 74.6% | ||
| + | | 80.0% | ||
| + | | 79.0% | ||
| + | | 81.1% | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | '''Democrat Total''' | ||
| + | |'''74.6%''' | ||
| + | |'''80.0%''' | ||
| + | | '''79.0%''' | ||
| + | | '''81.1%''' | ||
| + | |- | ||
|} | |} | ||
Latest revision as of 22:45, October 15, 2016
Probabilities from 5 March
| Candidate | 5 March 2016 | 7 March 2016 | 13 March 2016 | 16 March 2016 | 25 March 2016 | 27 March 2016 | 31 March 2016 | 5 April 2016 | 6 April 2016 | 7 April 2016 | 14 April 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 26.6% | 21.0% | 20.1% | 20.4% | 21.4% | 21.0% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 14.2% |
| Marco Rubio | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Cruz | 2.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.5% |
| John Kasich | 1.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
| Paul Ryan | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | ||||
| Mitt Romney | 0.8% | 0.6% | |||||||||
| Republican Total | 35.9% | 34.7% | 32.1% | 31.7% | 31.9% | 29.6% | 28.8% | 28.3% | 28.7% | 28.7% | 29.0% |
| Hilary Clinton | 57.6% | 56.0% | 57.0% | 60.3% | 61.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | 59.0% | 56.1% | 54.5% | 60.0% |
| Bernie Sanders | 3.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 8.5% |
| Joe Biden | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| Democrat Total | 62.0% | 63.2% | 65.8% | 68.2% | 68.1% | 70.4% | 71.2% | 71.7% | 71.3% | 71.3% | 71.0% |
| Michael Bloomberg | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Independent Total | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Probabilities from 28 April
| Candidate | 28 April 2016 | 7 May 2016 | 14 May 2016 | 21 May 2016 | 28 May 2016 | 11 June 2016 | 22 June 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 21.0% | 27.2% | 25.1% | 27.2% | 30.5% | 26.0% | 20.6% |
| Ted Cruz | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Kasich | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Ryan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% |
| Republican Total | 26.7% | 27.2% | 25.1% | 27.2% | 30.5% | 26.0% | 22.5% |
| Hilary Clinton | 68.8% | 69.0% | 67.9% | 64.9% | 63.2% | 68.3% | 72.5% |
| Bernie Sanders | 3.1% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% |
| Joe Biden | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| Democrat Total | 73.3% | 72.8% | 74.9% | 72.8% | 69.5% | 74.0% | 77.5% |
Probabilities from 1 August
| Candidate | 7 August 2016 | 20 August 2016 | 11 October 2016 | 16 October 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 25.4% | 20.0% | 17.8% | 17.1% |
| Mike Pence | 1.8% | 1.2% | ||
| Paul Ryan | 1.4% | 0.6% | ||
| Republican Total | 25.4% | 20.0% | 21.0% | 18.9% |
| Hilary Clinton | 74.6% | 80.0% | 79.0% | 81.1% |
| Democrat Total | 74.6% | 80.0% | 79.0% | 81.1% |