Difference between revisions of "User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds"

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'''Probability to end of January 2012'''
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{| class="wikitable"
 
{| class="wikitable"
 
|-
 
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| '''0.4%'''
 
| '''0.4%'''
 
|}
 
|}
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'''Probability from February 2012'''
 +
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|-
 +
! Candidate
 +
! 1 Feb 2012
 +
! 8 Feb 2012
 +
! 11 Feb 2012
 +
! 20 Feb 2012
 +
! 29 Feb 2012
 +
! 9 March 2012
 +
! 11 April 2012
 +
! 19 April 2012
 +
! 12 May 2012
 +
|-
 +
| Newt Gingrich
 +
| 4.3%
 +
| 2.1%
 +
| 2.0%
 +
| 1.7%
 +
| 1.6%
 +
| 1.5%
 +
| 0.7%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
|-
 +
| Mitt Romney
 +
| 36.4%
 +
| 33.2%
 +
| 29.9%
 +
| 26.7%
 +
| 27.2%
 +
| 28.7%
 +
| 32.1%
 +
| 34.0%
 +
| 33.5%
 +
|-
 +
| Ron Paul
 +
| 1.8%
 +
| 1.6%
 +
| 1.5%
 +
| 1.8%
 +
| 1.7%
 +
| 1.3%
 +
| 1.5%
 +
| 1.8%
 +
| 1.8%
 +
|-
 +
| Rick Santorum
 +
| 0.9%
 +
| 5.1%
 +
| 6.9%
 +
| 7.8%
 +
| 5.9%
 +
| 4.2%
 +
| 1.3%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
|-
 +
| Jeb Bush
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
|
 +
| 1.7%
 +
| 1.3%
 +
| 1.0%
 +
| 1.4%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
|-
 +
| '''Republican Total'''
 +
| '''43.4%'''
 +
| '''42.0%'''
 +
| '''40.3%'''
 +
| '''37.9%'''
 +
| '''38.2%'''
 +
| '''37.0%'''
 +
| '''36.6%'''
 +
| '''37.1%'''
 +
| '''35.3%'''
 +
|-
 +
| Barack Obama
 +
| 54.9%
 +
| 56.3%
 +
| 57.9%
 +
| 60.3%
 +
| 60.1%
 +
| 61.9%
 +
| 62.1%
 +
| 62.9%
 +
| 62.1%
 +
|-
 +
| Hilary Clinton
 +
| 1.7%
 +
| 1.7%
 +
| 1.8%
 +
| 1.8%
 +
| 1.7%
 +
| 1.1%
 +
| 1.3%
 +
| 0.0%
 +
| 2.6%
 +
|-
 +
| '''Democrat Total'''
 +
| '''56.6%'''
 +
| '''58.0%'''
 +
| '''59.7%'''
 +
| '''62.1%'''
 +
| '''61.8%'''
 +
| '''63.0%'''
 +
| '''63.4%'''
 +
| '''62.9%'''
 +
| '''64.7%'''
 +
|}
 +
 +
'''Probability from August 2012'''
 +
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
|-
 +
! Candidate
 +
! 9 Aug 2012
 +
! 16 Sept 2012
 +
! 26 Sept 2012
 +
! 3 November 2012
 +
|-
 +
| Mitt Romney
 +
| 34.4%
 +
| 27.7%
 +
| 21.7%
 +
| 22.5%
 +
|-
 +
| Barack Obama
 +
| 65.6%
 +
| 72.3%
 +
| 78.3%
 +
| 77.5%
 +
|}
 +
 +
  
 
(Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes])
 
(Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes])

Latest revision as of 03:12, November 3, 2012

Probability to end of January 2012

Candidate 11 Dec 2011 17 Dec 2011 26 Dec 2011 1 Jan 2012 5 Jan 2012 11 Jan 2012 18 Jan 2012 23 Jan 2012
Newt Gingrich 20.5% 18.2% 10.5% 5.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 10.1%
Mitt Romney 20.5% 20.4% 28.0% 34.2% 33.2% 34.1% 36.7% 30.3%
Ron Paul 4.8% 4.8% 4.4% 5.0% 3.7% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1%
Jon Huntsman 3.6% 3.6% 3.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Rick Perry 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Michele Bachmann 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rick Santorum 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1.7% 4.1% 3.0% 2.1% 1.4%
Rudy Giuliani 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Republican Total 53.0% 50.6% 49.3% 50.3% 47.0% 45.1% 45.1% 44.9%
Barack Obama 44.8% 47.3% 48.5% 47.5% 50.5% 52.7% 52.7% 52.9%
Hilary Clinton 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Joe Biden 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Democrat Total 47.0% 49.4% 50.7% 49.7% 52.6% 54.5% 54.5% 54.7%
Gary Johnson 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Independent Total 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

Probability from February 2012

Candidate 1 Feb 2012 8 Feb 2012 11 Feb 2012 20 Feb 2012 29 Feb 2012 9 March 2012 11 April 2012 19 April 2012 12 May 2012
Newt Gingrich 4.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Mitt Romney 36.4% 33.2% 29.9% 26.7% 27.2% 28.7% 32.1% 34.0% 33.5%
Ron Paul 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8%
Rick Santorum 0.9% 5.1% 6.9% 7.8% 5.9% 4.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Jeb Bush 1.7% 1.3% 1.0% 1.4% 0.0%
Republican Total 43.4% 42.0% 40.3% 37.9% 38.2% 37.0% 36.6% 37.1% 35.3%
Barack Obama 54.9% 56.3% 57.9% 60.3% 60.1% 61.9% 62.1% 62.9% 62.1%
Hilary Clinton 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 0.0% 2.6%
Democrat Total 56.6% 58.0% 59.7% 62.1% 61.8% 63.0% 63.4% 62.9% 64.7%

Probability from August 2012

Candidate 9 Aug 2012 16 Sept 2012 26 Sept 2012 3 November 2012
Mitt Romney 34.4% 27.7% 21.7% 22.5%
Barack Obama 65.6% 72.3% 78.3% 77.5%


(Source: William Hill, Ladbrokes)

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