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Russia's long-term economic forecast.
Russia's long-term economic forecast.
Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia practiced fiscal discipline and built up a reserve in order to make it more resilient to Western sanctions.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75GP_tKHZWA Is Russia's economy under pressure?], Roundtable video, March 5, 2024</ref>
On March 25, 2024, the Bank of Finland Institute For Emerging Economies indicated with a note of caution regarding their forecast due to Russia publishing less publically available economic data during the war in Ukraine: "Russian economic growth will decelerate this year. High growth of the second half of 2023 is still sufficient to boost on-year growth this year to around 2 %, even if quarterly growth were to cease altogether in 2024. In the absence of a surprising event, the Russian economy in 2025 and 2026 should grow at around 1 % a year, close to its long-term potential growth rate.<ref>[BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2024–2026], Bank of Finland Institute For Emerging Economies, 25 March 2024</ref>
Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia practiced fiscal discipline and built up a reserve in order to make it more resilient to Western sanctions.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75GP_tKHZWA Is Russia's economy under pressure?], Roundtable video, March 5, 2024</ref> However, the war is causing labor shortages, some inflation, and war time economies hurt a country's longer-term economic prospects because the money spent on the military is not spent on education, research and development and other factors which help labor productivity and long term economic growth.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75GP_tKHZWA Is Russia's economy under pressure?], Roundtable video, March 5, 2024</ref>
Currently, Russia is under a wartime economy and is running a deficit.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75GP_tKHZWA Is Russia's economy under pressure?], Roundtable video, March 5, 2024</ref>
Currently, Russia is under a wartime economy and is running a deficit.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75GP_tKHZWA Is Russia's economy under pressure?], Roundtable video, March 5, 2024</ref>
From 2017 until early 2022, Alexandra Prokopenko worked at the Central Bank of Russia and at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow. She is a former columnist for Vedomosti.
From 2017 until early 2022, Alexandra Prokopenko worked at the Central Bank of Russia and at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow. She is a former columnist for Vedomosti.