Changes

==World Population==

==World Population==

==='''Table 1: 2005 Population '''===

===Table 1: 2005 Population ===

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==History of the study of demography==

==History of the study of demography==

The term "demography" was coined in 1855 by a Belgian, Achille Guillard in his book, ''Elements de statistique humaine ou demographie comparee''. In his terms the study included many aspects of humans including general movement and progress (including morals) in civilized countries. He used the vital statistics of birth, marriage, sickness and death from census and registration reports."<ref> Thomas A Ebert, Oregon State "USA:Demographic Concepts," in ''Encyclopedia of Life Sciences.'' 2006</ref>  

The term "demography" was coined in 1855 by a Belgian, Achille Guillard in his book, ''Elements de statistique humaine ou demographie comparee''. In his terms the study included many aspects of humans including general movement and progress (including morals) in civilized countries. He used the vital statistics of birth, marriage, sickness and death from census and registration reports."<ref>Thomas A Ebert, Oregon State "USA:Demographic Concepts," in ''Encyclopedia of Life Sciences.'' 2006</ref>  

In the 17th and 18th century the general belief, called "[[mercantilism]]" was that the larger the population the better for the nation.  Larger population meant more farmers and more food,  more people in church (and more prayers), and larger, more powerful armies for deterrence, defense and expansion. People equaled power. As [[Frederick the Great]] of Prussia put it, "The number of the people makes the wealth of states."  The policy implications were clear: the state should help raise population through annexation of territory and pronatalist subsidies that encourage large families.  After 1800, a rising spirit of nationalism called out for more people  to make a bigger and more powerful nation.   

In the 17th and 18th century the general belief, called "[[mercantilism]]" was that the larger the population the better for the nation.  Larger population meant more farmers and more food,  more people in church (and more prayers), and larger, more powerful armies for deterrence, defense and expansion. People equaled power. As [[Frederick the Great]] of Prussia put it, "The number of the people makes the wealth of states."  The policy implications were clear: the state should help raise population through annexation of territory and pronatalist subsidies that encourage large families.  After 1800, a rising spirit of nationalism called out for more people  to make a bigger and more powerful nation.   

In 1798 English economist Reverend [[(Thomas) Robert Malthus‎|Robert Malthus]] in "An Essay on the Principle of Population" turned the received wisdom upside down and decisively restructured the debate.  His stunning conclusion was that more people might make it worse for everyone--that overpopulation was bad and unless proper steps were taken, disaster was inevitable.  Population growth was exceedingly dangerous, he warned, for it threatened overpopulation and soon we would all starve to death. The British were taking over India at this time, and could see first-hand the horrors associated with overpopulation.

In 1798 English economist Reverend [[(Thomas) Robert Malthus‎|Robert Malthus]] in "An Essay on the Principle of Population" turned the received wisdom upside down and decisively restructured the debate.  His stunning conclusion was that more people might make it worse for everyone—that overpopulation was bad and unless proper steps were taken, disaster was inevitable.  Population growth was exceedingly dangerous, he warned, for it threatened overpopulation and soon we would all starve to death. The British were taking over India at this time, and could see first-hand the horrors associated with overpopulation.

Because of the law of diminishing returns food production  can only grow arithmetically: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.    On the other hand, the population next year depends on the population this year, so it always expands exponentially: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, etc.  In other words, population expands faster than the food supply, and eventually people will starve.  

Because of the law of diminishing returns food production  can only grow arithmetically: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.    On the other hand, the population next year depends on the population this year, so it always expands exponentially: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, etc.  In other words, population expands faster than the food supply, and eventually people will starve.  

see [[Demographic transition]]

see [[Demographic transition]]

Demographic transition theory was developed by demographers in the 1940s to provide a description and explanation of the main lines of European and American population history.<ref> Davis (1945)</ref>  The demographic transition involves three stages:

Demographic transition theory was developed by demographers in the 1940s to provide a description and explanation of the main lines of European and American population history.<ref>Davis (1945)</ref>  The demographic transition involves three stages:

*Stage 1:  In the first stage, birth rates are high and death rates are high. The population grows slowly.

*Stage 1:  In the first stage, birth rates are high and death rates are high. The population grows slowly.

*Stage 2:  In the second stage modernization begins--especially industrialization (factories and railroads) and urbanization (movement off the farms).  Medicine improves, as does personal hygiene and public health.  This leads to a sharp fall in the death rate. Everyone lives longer, and infants are much more likely to survive.  In the second stage, birth rates remain high so (with fewer deaths) the population increases rapidly.

*Stage 2:  In the second stage modernization begins—especially industrialization (factories and railroads) and urbanization (movement off the farms).  Medicine improves, as does personal hygiene and public health.  This leads to a sharp fall in the death rate. Everyone lives longer, and infants are much more likely to survive.  In the second stage, birth rates remain high so (with fewer deaths) the population increases rapidly.

*Stage 3:  In the third stage, the death rate continues to fall and now the birth rate falls as well. Families become smaller. Instead of the rapid growth of stage two, population growth slows down; indeed, the population may start to shrink.

*Stage 3:  In the third stage, the death rate continues to fall and now the birth rate falls as well. Families become smaller. Instead of the rapid growth of stage two, population growth slows down; indeed, the population may start to shrink.

====Migration policy====

====Migration policy====

Migration continues as a major demographic factor in the 21st century. Travel costs have fallen, education and information levels are higher, and the globalization of the economy means that the world is increasingly a single economic unit. Better educated people in poor countries have a strong incentive to move to high wage countries, which, because of aging, have shortages of skilled labor. In addition, politics and war continues to create refugees who cannot return home. Urbanization has radically changed its tone. A century ago all the world's large cities were centers of business, employment, education and culture--of "urbanity." Now, the largest cities are much bigger and much poorer, as they are crowded with millions of new migrants from the rural hinterlands who eek out a narrow existence. In 2007 half the world's population lives in cities, putting an increasing strain on the infrastructure, the educational system, the economy, and ultimately on the national political structure. A political backlash against immigrants has achieved major proportions in Western Europe and the United States.

Migration continues as a major demographic factor in the 21st century. Travel costs have fallen, education and information levels are higher, and the globalization of the economy means that the world is increasingly a single economic unit. Better educated people in poor countries have a strong incentive to move to high wage countries, which, because of aging, have shortages of skilled labor. In addition, politics and war continues to create refugees who cannot return home. Urbanization has radically changed its tone. A century ago all the world's large cities were centers of business, employment, education and culture—of "urbanity." Now, the largest cities are much bigger and much poorer, as they are crowded with millions of new migrants from the rural hinterlands who eek out a narrow existence. In 2007 half the world's population lives in cities, putting an increasing strain on the infrastructure, the educational system, the economy, and ultimately on the national political structure. A political backlash against immigrants has achieved major proportions in Western Europe and the United States.

===Policy: from Politicians or People?===

===Policy: from Politicians or People?===

===Environment===

===Environment===

As countries industrialize and their cities grow, the impact on the environment becomes more severe. Thick brown smog covers much of China and Southeast Asia throughout the year, the product of burning jungles and forests, as well as of new cities, factories and highways that scarcely existed forty years ago. On the optimistic side, city dwellers get much more schooling. The availability of higher education and advanced technical training is much greater in the cities. Some of the graduates will migrate. But others will want to stay close to home, and expect the Internet to bring work to them. Already the Internet is creating high-skilled and high-paying jobs in previously remote areas--all of which are nick-named after California's "Silicon Valley." Thus, "Silicon India" in the Bangalore region now has tens of thousands of software experts, employed long-distance for wages ten times that of their neighbors. "Silicon Bog" employees 50,000 people in Ireland, making that once-bucolic land the number two software center of the world.

As countries industrialize and their cities grow, the impact on the environment becomes more severe. Thick brown smog covers much of China and Southeast Asia throughout the year, the product of burning jungles and forests, as well as of new cities, factories and highways that scarcely existed forty years ago. On the optimistic side, city dwellers get much more schooling. The availability of higher education and advanced technical training is much greater in the cities. Some of the graduates will migrate. But others will want to stay close to home, and expect the Internet to bring work to them. Already the Internet is creating high-skilled and high-paying jobs in previously remote areas—all of which are nick-named after California's "Silicon Valley." Thus, "Silicon India" in the Bangalore region now has tens of thousands of software experts, employed long-distance for wages ten times that of their neighbors. "Silicon Bog" employees 50,000 people in Ireland, making that once-bucolic land the number two software center of the world.

===Three Scenarios for Century 21===

===Three Scenarios for Century 21===

UN demographers work with three scenarios for the next half century, knowing full well how poorly have been predictions made in the past. By 2050 world population will be anywhere from a low of 7.3 billion to a high of 10.7, depending primarily on the change in fertility in poor countries. Countries that in 2000 were more developed had 1.2 billion

UN demographers work with three scenarios for the next half century, knowing full well how poorly have been predictions made in the past. By 2050 world population will be anywhere from a low of 7.3 billion to a high of 10.7, depending primarily on the change in fertility in poor countries. Countries that in 2000 were more developed had 1.2 billion

people in 2000, and will contain from 990 million to 1.4 billion. That is, the range is quite small. (The projections for the USA vary a great deal, depending on assumptions about future migration.) Africa, starting at 780 million, will double or triple--depending, of course, on the what happens to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Japan and Europe will shrink, and China will either remain steady at 1.3 million or grow slowly to 1.7 million. The rest of Asia and Latin America will grow rapidly.  

people in 2000, and will contain from 990 million to 1.4 billion. That is, the range is quite small. (The projections for the USA vary a great deal, depending on assumptions about future migration.) Africa, starting at 780 million, will double or triple—depending, of course, on the what happens to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Japan and Europe will shrink, and China will either remain steady at 1.3 million or grow slowly to 1.7 million. The rest of Asia and Latin America will grow rapidly.  

* Davis, Kingsley.  "The World Demographic Transition." ''Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,'' 1945 237: 1-11. in JSTOR, classic article that introduced concept of transition

* Davis, Kingsley.  "The World Demographic Transition." ''Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,'' 1945 237: 1-11. in JSTOR, classic article that introduced concept of transition

* Gillis, John R.; Louise A. Tilly; and David Levine; eds. ''The European Experience of Declining Fertility, 1850-1970: The Quiet Revolution.'' 1992.  

* Gillis, John R.; Louise A. Tilly; and David Levine; eds. ''The European Experience of Declining Fertility, 1850-1970: The Quiet Revolution.'' 1992.  

* Szreter, Simon. "The Idea of Demographic Transition and the Study of Fertility: A Critical Intellectual History." ''Population and Development Review,'' 1993. 19:4, pp 659-701.

* Szreter, Simon. "The Idea of Demographic Transition and the Study of Fertility: A Critical Intellectual History." ''Population and Development Review,'' 1993. 19:4, pp 659–701.

===Current data===

===Current data===

===Scholarly journals===

===Scholarly journals===

*''Demography''  [http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/demography/toc/dem37.4.html sample]] in [[Project MUSE]] and [[JSTOR]]

*''Demography''  [http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/demography/toc/dem37.4.html sample] in [[Project MUSE]] and [[JSTOR]]

*''Population Studies'' British journal; since 1947 in [[JSTOR]]

*''Population Studies'' British journal; since 1947 in [[JSTOR]]

*''Population and Development Review'' since 1975 in [[JSTOR]]

*''Population and Development Review'' since 1975 in [[JSTOR]]

==External resources==

==External resources==

* [http://tigger.uic.edu/~rjensen/populate.htm Richard Jensen, ''World Population: A Guide to the WWW'']

* [http://tigger.uic.edu/~rjensen/populate.htm Richard Jensen, ''World Population: A Guide to the WWW'']

* [[http://www.prb.org/Publications.aspx Population reference Bureau]]

* [http://www.prb.org/Publications.aspx Population reference Bureau]

* [http://popindex.princeton.edu/index.html '''Population Index'''] Bibliographic Searchable Database (1986-2000) from Princeton University

* [http://popindex.princeton.edu/index.html '''Population Index'''] Bibliographic Searchable Database (1986-2000) from Princeton University

* [http://www.prb.org Population Reference Bureau]

* [http://www.prb.org Population Reference Bureau]

[[Category:Demography]]

[[Category:Demography]]