User:Conservative/Forecasting

Economics

• Economics

General forecasting

• Superforecasting - Philip Tetlock - Playlist

• Superforecasting Summary and Review by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner

• The Peculiar Blindness of Experts - Credentialed authorities are comically bad at predicting the future. But reliable forecasting is possible.

• Professor Philip Tetlock on His Groundbreaking Research About 'Expert Judgment' - video

Economic forecasting

• Economic calendar

• The Austrian indictor

• Gross output

Yield curve

• What You Need to Know About the Inverted Yield Curve

• US Treasury yield curve

• Yield curve - Google search

• Inverted yield curve - Google search

The difficulty of long term economic forecasting for various companies/sectors/countries

• Most People Have No Idea What Is Coming - Warren Buffett

Difficulty of short term economic forecasting due to various factors

• Nobody Knows How Long Inflation Will Last. That’s Life.

Videos/podcast, investing/business/trends

• Investing, business, trends
• Valuetainment
• Motley Fool - Investing

Stock investing: Good opportunities

MOAT:

• MOAT: Nothing Better Than A Sustainable Competitive Advantage (The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF has outperformed the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF over the past 10 years.)

Investing in blue chip art:

• Investing in blue-chip art

• Masterworks on Mad Money with Jim Cramer

Angel investing study - 27% return - Kaufman study:

• Angel investing Kaufman study
• Historical returns in angel markets

Stock investing experts

Mark Lipias

Mark Lipacis: Out of more than 8,000 total analysts in the TipRanks database, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis is rated No. 1 based on his stock-picking track record over the past 10 years. Lipacis has an impressive 73% success rate on his stock ratings, and his 498 stock picks generated an average return of 30.3%.[1]

• Mark Lipacis's Stock Forecasts

• Mark Lipias - Stocks

• Mark Lipias

• Mark Lipias

Eric Fry

• Eric Fry
• Eric Fry - Global trends

Other Notable stock investment specialists

• Motley Fool, Zacks, Morningstar, Seeking Alpha – Which is the best investment service for you?

• The Motley Fool – Best Stock-Picking Service
• Seeking Alpha – Best Investment Research Website for Experienced Investors
• Morningstar – Best Data-Driven Investment Research Platform (especially for mutual funds and ETFs)
• Zacks – Best Supplementary Rating System

Motley Fool:

• Motley Fool

• Motley Fool Stock Advisory service

• Motly Fool premium services

• [Motley Fool, Zacks, Morningstar, Seeking Alpha – Which is the best investment service for you?]

The Motley Fool – Best Stock-Picking Service Seeking Alpha – Best Investment Research Website for Experienced Investors Morningstar – Best Data-Driven Investment Research Platform (especially for mutual funds and ETFs) Zacks – Best Supplementary Rating System

Growth investor:

Louis Navellier:

• Louis Navellier - review

• Louis Navellier website

• Louis Navellier - Investor place

Tech investors:

• Produced in partnership with TrueBridge Capital Partners, the Midas List has long tracked venture capital’s ebbs and flows as the definitive ranking of the top 100 tech investors."- Forbes, 2023

• The Midas list

• Brownstone Research

General economic trend forecasting related info

Sources:

• Barron's online

• Mishtalk

• Global economic analysis

• Seeking Alpha

• Seeking Alpha - Macro View

• Jim Rogers blog

• Bill McBride - Calculated Risk - Google News

• Business Insider

• Economic Cycle Research Institute - reports

• Free advice - Robert Murphy blog

• Mises Media - YouTube

Economics mixed with right-wing political ideology:

• Daily Reckoning

America will suffer a great depression in 2030:

• ITR Economics

• ITR Economics - YouTube

• Leading Forecaster Predicts 2030 Global Depression Dr. Alan Beaulieu

Semi doom and gloomers:

Jim Rogers:

• Jim Rogers

Marc Faber:

• Gloom Boom and Doom - Marc Faber - Swiss investor based in Thailand

• Marc Faber - YouTube

Nouriel Roubini:

• Nouriel Roubini

Gary Shilling:

• Gary Shilling

Doom and gloomers:

• Economic collapse blog

Prediction markets

• Election betting odds

• Polymarket

• Predictit

• Insight Prediction

• 20 prediction markets

Political forecasting

1. Political expert forecasts

• Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip Tetlock - video (Critical thinkers did the best. They tried to falsify their notions/forecast)

• Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by Philip E. Tetlock, Princeton University Press; New Ed edition (August 20, 2006)

2. Arthur C. Brooks wrote in his article Reading Too Much Political News Is Bad for Your Well-Being: "A 2012 survey conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University asked a sample of Americans about their news-consumption habits, and quizzed them about U.S. and international political and economic events. They found that those watching the most partisan television news sources—on both the left and the right—were often less knowledgeable about world events than those who consumed no news at all."

• At Least Bias Is Bipartisan: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Partisan Bias in Liberals and Conservatives - Perspectives on Psychological Science

• Psychological Features of Extreme Political Ideologies

3. Political betting markets have better accuracy than polls and pundits.